Gambid
@gambidtheory
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Sell the Coinbase IPO top
Buy the FTX blowup bottom
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If you take SBF and shift every letter by 1, you get GCR backwards
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@annaarthoe
Disagree, builds intuition around computational thinking which is the most important skill imo
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We used to be in with retail hoping for the institutions
Now we're in with institutions hoping for retail
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No more things starting with G for the sake of our industry
Golem
Grayscale
Germany
Gox
Gemini
Genesis
Galaxy
Gary Gensler
Golem, a project that raised 820,000 ETH in ICO in 2016, has transferred 36,000 ETH to Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, etc. in the past 37 days, worth about $115 million. Currently, Golem still has 231,400 ETH, worth about $656 million.
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The market rules in question:
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Ethereum ETF receives approval from the SEC by May 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC,
Biggest rule fight in the history of Polymarket is brewing, and will come to a head in the next few hours.
The Ethereum ETF market has $11m in volume. The market is 5x larger than the previous biggest rules fight (the missing submarine being located). That disparity will only
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If we see 28k hold on a meaningful timeframe, I can see this narrative start to get popular
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Holding these really tested my patience but the reality is Fink cannot be beat
I have ETH approval odds for May closer to 70%
It’s not ETF technicalities that’s the prime factor this time around, it’s Gary’s political calculus
And they’ve implicitly conceded ETH isn’t a security by approving ETH futures ETFs last Oct
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I have ETH approval odds for May closer to 70%
It’s not ETF technicalities that’s the prime factor this time around, it’s Gary’s political calculus
And they’ve implicitly conceded ETH isn’t a security by approving ETH futures ETFs last Oct
Bloomberg analysts substantially lower likelihood of spot Ethereum ETF approval in May to 30%
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@gametheorizing
On Metalearning:
The main skill is learning how to learn, i.e. metalearning. The world keeps developing new things like DeFi, NFTs, etc. so it's +EV to have the building blocks ready.
6 months is all you need to deep dive into a new field/topic if you're obsessive about it.
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@MorningBrew
Being forgetful. Removing unimportant memories = more space for committing important memeories.
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@0xjaypeg
Barry Silbert is a Stanford experiment conducted to study the maximum pain that can conceivably be inflicted on a burgeoning industry
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@gametheorizing
On Motivation:
Seek exponential growth (*x improvement/yr, rather than +x) and Mastery.
Best to judge yourself by internal goals such as building enough knowledge and intuition to deal with any situation that may arise. Motivation becomes a natural byproduct.
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@gametheorizing
On Habits:
What's 10x more important than a degree/job experience is having good habits. If you live a balanced life, clear your head from negative thoughts holding you back, and rid your interactions from toxic people, you are way ahead of the game.
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@gametheorizing
On Game Theory:
Don't worry about reading books, it'll only give you a mathematical perspective. Focus on human psychology, group dynamics, incentives, goals, and practical application.
Much more to GT than prisoner's dilemmas - stag hunts, Mexican standoffs, to name a few.
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Pavlovian conditioning is a great way to think about crypto markets
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@gametheorizing
On Crypto:
Long term, US Debt will be inflated away. BTC benefits.
L1/L2 valuations likely depend on tech and BD execution, but difficult to predict.
Constructive on ETH, but it has to prove itself against competition.
Better apps (not just dCasino) needed for new bull.
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in discretionary
the right position
is almost always flat
the right action
is almost always do nothing
5x / yr
@HsakaTrades
tweets abt a coin
long it
then do nothing
outperformance
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@gametheorizing
On Bet Sizing:
Personal approach is to size aggressively when high in conviction. Think, if this goes wrong, how badly am I willing to be hurt? For low/medium conviction, size 1/8th of that amount.
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GCR is not vivek, he’s sbf
If you take SBF and shift every letter by 1, you get GCR backwards
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@hasufl
1. Smart money is a myth
2. Past lessons can be forgotten if you’re not intentional about reinforcing them
3. If you ever find yourself screenshotting a PNL, take profit. Wait. Reassess.
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@gametheorizing
On Investing:
By far the most important thing is learning how to reason from first principles. Independent thinking - consider the extremes of outcomes to understand the range better.
Take care of tail risk in case of black swans so you can always rebuild from a base.
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@gametheorizing
Some thoughts on Macro:
EQ will likely retest the lows once more in Q3, and can cut deeper.
Oil is near the peak, but won't come down for a while.
70% chance FED pauses hikes in H2 2022. Will be hinted if so.
Housing peaked, but won't drawdown more than 10-20%.
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Reason to be long term bullish crypto for those looking for it and why the “forever top” isn’t in:
Gambling supercycle
Fiat debasement supercycle
AI progress supercycle
These all align over the next decade and you’ll have an increasingly large pool of the population
Corollary to this: looking at the returns to scaling LLMs, the rise of AGI will drop the value of human work to near 0. A world with 90+% of humans jobless and desperate, and the inevitable stimulus in the form of UBI, is a powder keg for rampant online gambling
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If you’re bullish ETH, think it makes sense to gigalong ETC
The only real ETH beta on Robinhood, low unit bias, easily mistaken for Ethereum
Future wolf coin
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Despite what Mitchnick himself says, I have it at 80% odds Blackrock eventually files for the SOL ETF for the March 2025 cohort
Odds may look bleak now, but the priority for Blackrock at the moment is to keep attention and capital focused on ETH following its launch
Once
There won’t be a ‘long list of crypto ETFs,’ BlackRock’s Robert Mitchnick says
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@Awawat_Trades
@CryptoCred
IOTA DAG blockchain killer
RaiBlocks interexchange liquidity rails
Oyster Pearls new internet
Vertcoin ASIC-resistant proof of work
VeChain supply chain tracker for your vegetables
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We live in the golden age of trading
Assets are going to keep getting repriced with every new technological advancement
Increasing volatility and things to speculate on as we approach a singularity
A glimpse of our early work with artists and filmmakers to see how Sora can help bring ideas into reality:
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Corollary to this: looking at the returns to scaling LLMs, the rise of AGI will drop the value of human work to near 0. A world with 90+% of humans jobless and desperate, and the inevitable stimulus in the form of UBI, is a powder keg for rampant online gambling
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@GardenOfMyopia
@HsakaTrades
: Narrative/mimetic plays
@GCRClassic
: High conviction trading
@cobie
: Positioning > trading
@KeyboardMonkey3
: LTF trend following
@ColdBloodShill
: Momentum trading
@HighStakesCap
: Low frequency, high bet size
@CL207
: Derivatives data video game
@Pentosh1
: HTF/Macro
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Biden dropping out here puts us in the best timeline
We have a solid 3-4 months of building the narrative of a rosy crypto future under the Trump + Blackrock regime before the sell the news catalyst in Nov of Trump officially winning the election
Good spot to put on exposure
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Some pointers from an innate optimist
Assume clown world
Assume inefficient markets
Assume bad information
Assume grift
Start with these assumptions, then update priors carefully with new information
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@MikeMcDonald89
@opensea
@larvalabs
Cryptopunks are one of the few truly finished products in crypto, aside from Bitcoin.
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@danrobinson
almost by definition, things are cringe precisely when they are adopted by the olds
tis an arms race
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whoever came up with the bell curve meme deserves a noble prize in psychology
out of all the memes I’ve come across these last two years it’s the one I think about the most
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SBF writing multiple posts on election and sports betting on his personal blog in 2012
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druck, and now soros
ape some first and investigate later is more common than anticipated
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Now that the adults are here, the industry no longer needs to feign a sense of legitimacy
We are free to be our true selves
Retardio
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In the context of memecoins, attention = fleeting value
Memecoins are games of hot potato and how high they go/how long they last is a function of attention
There’s *some* attention -> valuation mechanism but it’s orders of magnitude more fleeting than say social media apps
The whole point here is attention = value
The analogy is that Facebook is free for users but worth a lot because it’s a platform for advertisers to connect with users — monetizing the attention of users—which in turn gives Facebook a ton of revenue
That’s where it break down
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Thankful for the good folks at
@Polymarket
for the liquidity, happy to see their recent traction
Trump is up to 55c to be the next President on Polymarket after two traders bought almost 2 million shares combined.
We could be in for a market where Trump's price is permanently a few cents higher on Poly vs elsewhere due to highly caffeinated crypto bros.
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@DittoJoBrr
@0xTomoyo
@SaintFortitude
@RuneKek
@stablekwon
Look, UST and MIM are solid ponzis and I respect that. You can make good money off them for sure. But they are not built for resilience and they are going to 0 once the market turns for real
Now stop trying to scam users looking for actual stability into being ur exit liquidity
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I remain bullish
The way I see it, there are periods of time to be USD denominated, and periods of time to be BTC/ETH denominated
Nov ’22 marked that shift
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@Evan_ss6
Agree with the points
On 1), it would have to be another reason because it’s unlikely it takes more than a week or two given the template is already known post BTC spot approvals
And I just don’t see what the SEC gains from delaying a couple months
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@AVCrypto_
imo ultimately it comes down to liquidity games. BTC is a game for people playing with 9-10+ figure size, followed by liquid L1 alts, onchain alts, etc.
If you’re not in that category, there’s no need to ever trade BTC. It is still useful as a barometer for crypto’s health tho
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@HighStakesCap
@cryptoaladeen
At some point, probably something biotech/nootropics/genomics related. Could be tradable entities that produce the drugs. Already seeing counter culture weekend hacking on some of this stuff
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+ forced liquidations during fat tails
The only free lunch in markets is disciplined trendfollowing, few understand and even fewer execute
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“Cash is trash” was a mind virus that was an important component of the previous cycle
This cycle the it’s shaping up to be the “debt spiral”
Once normies are talking about this concept, we start to approach peak contagion
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something interesting John von Neumann once said about poker, esp for newer players
the point of bluffing is not occasionally winning a high bid with a bad hand, but rather to encourage your opponent to bet with a mid range hand when you have a good hand
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GiganticRebirth --> Luna Classic --> GCRClassic --> Luna Rebirth
circle of life
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“Money doesn’t bring happiness” is mostly psyops
money may or may not directly bring happiness
but it does set your life’s difficulty setting
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