Eager_Space
@eager_space
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In depth Spaceflight videos.
Seattle - ish
Joined July 2022
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Anybody remember back when we were worried because SpaceX couldn't build tanks that held pressure?
Yeah, me neither.
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SpaceX is successful not in spite of their explosions, they are successful because of their explosions. At least the explosions during development.
#SpaceX
#Space
#Falcon9
#PrototypeRichDevelopment
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@peterrhague
@SpaceX
I agree with your numbers, I just don't think the scenario is worth considering. SpaceX invented booster reuse.
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I thoroughly enjoyed this morning's movie, though I think the scriptwriters went a bit overboard with the "little flap that could" substory and the conveniently timed communications dropouts. No real mission would be like that...
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Back when Boeing did their starliner abort test, one parachute failed to work because they didn't hook it up during the packing process...
I remember thinking that if you miss that sort of thing you probably have some serious issues in your process management approach.
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I wonder how the ULA engineers feel about their PR department putting out stuff like this...
ULA is now claiming Vulcan's first stage reaches orbit.
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I'm confused that people are asking why SpaceX is optimizing Starship instead of just flying it when that is exactly what they did with Falcon 9 V1.0 - uprated the engine and stretched the overall vehicle.
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Anybody know what this discolored area on the capsule is?
Butch and Suni are now in the Spacecraft! Caught this picture of Butch right before starting the crew ingress procedures with
#Boeing
’s most excellent pad team. Go
#Starliner
!!!
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I want to talk about why this is so bad for NASA...
Bad PR 101 says that being transparent is incredibly important, and you want to get all the bad news out there as publicly as possible. You also need to be responsive.
=>
"NASA identified more than 100 locations where ablative thermal protective material from Orion’s heat shield chipped away unexpectedly during reentry into Earth’s atmosphere."
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@SciGuySpace
Hmm. Respected oldspace company the safe choice and then can't deliver...
I *swear* that I've seen that someplace before...
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Any theories why the notoriously secretive Blue Origin has gotten so talkative over the past few days?
Change in management, change in focus, something else?
Enquiring minds want to know...
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I was struck last night that in the process of developing a cheap medium launcher, spacex developed both the most innovative advance in rocket reuse and the most boring rocket ever. Falcon 9 is the Airbus 320 of rocketry right now.
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Interesting Starship info from IAC...
Starship is going from 1/3rd prop mass of booster to 1/2 prop mass of booster, which would be a 10 (ish) meter tank stretch (assuming no booster mod).
Booster will stage at 100 seconds.
/2
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Trying to understand Vulcan...
ULA has flown four rockets in the last 2 years. One Atlas V, two Delta IV, and then the first Vulcan early this year. In 2021/2022 they flew 13 missions. They *must* be hurting from a cash flow basis from fixed costs.
1/n
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Random fact of the day...
A fully-fueled single engine centaur stage has mass of 23,077 kg.
The published maximum mass to LEO for a Falcon 9 is 22,800 kg.
The centaur will fit inside the extended fairing, though you will probably want it upside down...
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Falcon 9 is one of a small group - if not by itself - of rockets with good empirical measures of reliability rather than purely predicted ones.
First Falcon 9 anomaly in quite a while. Even counting this as a full failure (if the Starlinks can’t be saved) the rocket remains highly reliable.
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@SciGuySpace
It is just bizarre to watch it as it clears the tower and think "this rocket has twice the thrust of the Saturn V and it was created by a private company".
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@SciGuySpace
@Alexphysics13
The EUS upper stage report makes it pretty clear it's systemic. They can't do clean room 101 right.
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Why Starship is so Late?
What I hope is some new insight on why the IFT flights were so delayed and why they are making such good progress now.
Something I really should have figured out two years ago...
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I haven't commented on the Starliner situation, but I have a few thoughts at this point...
The first is that Crew Dragon would be the safer craft even if starliner worked perfectly because it has more flight heritage. So that's the wrong question to ask.
1/
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@Erdayastronaut
It's because of the high difficulty of buying big pieces of metal and attaching them to each other.
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I rewatched the flight test, and was struck by something I saw.
I was expecting to see a lot of early heating on the flap from the back camera, but what I saw was a lot of incandescence coming around the body, starting far below the fin. What's causing that?
55:45 and on
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Back in May NASA said they were assembling an expert panel to look at the Orion Heat Shield problem and that they would be done in late June.
Has anybody seen anything from that effort?
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Those are speaker stacks with enough power to replicate launch conditions. Human for scale.
Our Shooting Star cargo module has successfully completed acoustic testing at
@NASAKennedy
, withstanding acoustic levels greater than 140 dB for several minutes at a time, proving its flight worthiness.
Press Release:
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Holy Payload Adapters!
From the Vulcan user's guide:
A full 20 options.
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Like Falcon 9, Crew Dragon has been pretty much perfect as the only US crew vehicle.
Huge kudos to SpaceX. Capsules are really, really hard.
Celebrating four years since Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley launched to the
@Space_Station
on the first crewed flight of the SpaceX Crew Dragon—the Demo-2 mission. Since then, the Crew Dragon has become a critical part of NASA's
@Commercial_Crew
Program!
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Lots of people talking about whether propellant transfer will work and the number of tanker flights required...
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Jared Isaacman and SpaceX are running their very own space program. They've done Mercury and Gemini is coming up soon.
@elonmusk
#SpaceX
@rookisaacman
#polarisdawn
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Missing this looks really bad for NASA. If there was a serious problem with Starliner while docked - say a bad hypergolic propellant leak - there is no defined way to get it away from the station.
Steve Stich confirms my reporting from two days ago: Starliner presently does not have the capability to undock autonomously without changes to the software configuration on the vehicle.
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This is one that I've been waiting for - the second company to reuse boosters.
Disclaimer: I have an entertainment-quality investment in Rocket Lab stock.
This Electron has been to space and back. Now it's getting ready to go again.
For the first time, a recovered Electron stage has been returned to the production line to undergo final acceptance and qualification testing in preparation for reflight.
Full details:
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90 people seems like a small team size to be making so many second stages.
This hardly gets much mention, but the rate
#SpaceX
cranks out second stages for Falcon 9 is incredible. The booster gets all the glory but the folks back in the factory are putting in a good shift every day to produce a new 2nd stage for every flight.
photo: Teslarati
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I'm not against Blue building orbital vehicles.
I'm just confused by a platform that does so many things - hosting, transportation, refueling, data relay, logistics, and space cloud computing.
He who focuses on everything focuses on nothing.
What’s new at Blue? Our vision to build a road to space now includes a new, multi-orbit spacecraft platform called Blue Ring. Check it out here:
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Been working on a commercial LEO station video...
The economics are totally dominated by launch cost. 60% of the yearly cost, 80% if you pull out a return on the construction and launch cost.
That's using cargo and crew dragon at NASA prices
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2: That gives you the best chance of establishing trust.
Here, the Orion team had these photographs and somebody in management decided that they weren't going to share them publicly because it would make the Orion team look bad and/or lead to people to freak out.
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@SciGuySpace
I was hugely impressed at how good they were at transitioning from one Ariane to the next over a period of a couple years.
Then they decided not to do that with Ariane 6 and just gave the market away. Though it's not clear what GTO looks like in the future.
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Happy to see that cygnus made it. ISS has enough drama right now, and this launch likely has a care package for the starliner astronauts.
An astronaut operating a huge 7-jointed arm reached out and grabbed a satellite this morning - for the 50th time! Well done
@dominickmatthew
&
@Astro_Jeanette
, and the
#Canadarm2
team
@csa_asc
&
@NASA
!
(photo NASA)
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@SciGuySpace
So, business as usual...
The optics on this are terrible. NASA told us there was unexpected erosion, and I don't think anybody expected that to mean "fist sized chunks blown out".
We aren't experts, but hiding the pictures did not create a trust positive environment...
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Titles to get clicks are hardly unexpected,..
The real problem is that neither NASA nor Boeing seem to have any idea how to plan up front for issues from a PR standpoint. It's PR 101 to game all the bad things that could happen and design your messaging based on that.
They are not lost in space.
They are not stuck in space.
They are not stranded in space.
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Does it seem weird to you that a company that wants to "enable millions of people to live and work in space" has spent $0 sending people to live and work in space?
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3: A management team that hides that sort of information is a management team that might hide other information - they clearly aren't being transparent, and therefore have demonstrated they are not trustworthy as they have a different agenda.
=>
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Confused by the first Vulcan launch...
The Vulcan in VC0S configuration - no solids - can do 2100 kg of mass to the moon. The astrobotics lander is only 1283 kg, but they launched with the VC2S configuration.
Any ideas why? I have a couple...
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@SciGuySpace
Man, these guys are tone deaf...
The right answer is "we will meet as a team to make sure we have all the input so we can make the right decision", even if it *is* Bill Nelson who will decide.
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@SciGuySpace
Boeing got $500 million to figure it all out before they put in their fixed price bid, but apparently they didn't bother doing the work.
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@GunsAndRockets1
However, Falcon 9 is far inferior at failing. The proton crashing into the ground and spraying toxic propellants all over the place was much more impressive than the CRS-7 second stage failure.
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Starship drone ship landings...
This one took forever, and most of what I wrote for it did not survive editing.
I do now fully understand Peter Beck's opinion on marine assets.
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/2
and wow, didn't that turn out to be true.
Having issues happens to everybody.
Not knowing your issues means you don't know what is going on in your program.
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I am hoping that Starliner will fly and fly safely.
Mostly because I'm tired of the endless "will they or won't they" plot line. I don't mind a little suspense, but 4 years is too many years.
#Starliner
is now loaded onto the transporter that will roll it out of our factory tomorrow, April 16. It will head to
@ulalaunch
's Vertical Integration Facility to be integrated with the
#AtlasV
rocket for the Crew Flight Test launch on May 6.
More:
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I think the right question is "is it safe enough?" And that question has never been asked before because there was never a situation with an option before - NASA just flew what it had.
2/
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4: It's especially bad that OIG published it as that's an indication that others in NASA do not think the Orion team is being transparent.
=>
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However, from what I've seen I think the doghouse thruster arrangement is a bad design, but it seems to be such an obvious bad design I wonder what I'm missing.
So I don't know. Go read Eric Berger's article on Ars if you haven't.
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@SciGuySpace
The hilarious part of all this is that it was the failure of Griffin's Constellation plans that led directly to both commercial cargo and commercial crew and therefore to the very architecture that he hates.
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My *guess* is that they will go with 9 raptors as they are staging low enough that the thrust/weight is starship would be too low with only 6.
Staging lower is another optimization as SH Isp will be 348 in vacuum and 9 engine ship is 370.
No ideas on payload as
#s
too fluffy..
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NASA happily flew shuttle with pretty poor loss of crew numbers, and if I had to guess, starliner is probably safer than shuttle, though I don't feel strongly.
3/
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5: I'm not a heat shield guy so I don't know how bad it is when chunks the size of my fist are just missing, and I'm willing to defer to the experts on this.
But the way it was handled makes the Orion management look just terrible.
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How did we end up with commercial cargo, crew, and lunar landers despite NASA or congress not wanting any of them?
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@rookisaacman
@SpaceX
@NASA
@elonmusk
It is simply unfathomable that a company that barely got into orbit with a very small payload 15 years ago is on the cusp of launching the biggest rocket ever and one that will - with some work - likely be the first fully reusable rocket.
This is a great time to love rockets.
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I don't get this. Polaris Dawn had to have both a launch license and a reentry license from the FAA, the body empowered to regulate civilian space in the US.
Interesting video from
@LauraForczyk
- perhaps an unpopular take, but I actually see smart regulation as something that could benefit the future of commercial spaceflight, rather than hinder it. We don’t want a Titan submersible situation in space after all.
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@FullOfStarships
6 tons seems really light for a thermal protection system for such a beast. Assuming a nominal payload of 150 to tons, that's only a tax of 4% ish.
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I fully expected SpaceX to beat Boeing... by maybe 6 months.
Was it Boeing's plan to "slow roll" starliner as much as possible to extract extra money from NASA?
Starliner's new launch date will be updated this afternoon. It will be late enough this summer that the vehicle's first crewed mission will now occur more than three years after Crew Dragon's Demo-2 flight.
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@UltraSafeNuke
This would be more impressive if NERVA hadn't tested zirconium carbide coatings in 1972
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Can anybody tell me where the seam between the first and second stages is? I'm not quite sure where it is...
Targeting Friday, December 1 for a Falcon 9 launch of the Korea 425 mission from Space Launch Complex 4E in California →
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In software we call projects like this "death marches".
You work hard for a month but you don't make any progress towards shipping.
I'm wondering if starliner is in this category...
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I love that SpaceX decided to use soot as a visual indicator of how much they can reuse boosters...
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I'm fine with vision, but the tone of this bothers me. You can't do any of this right now and you have a long way to go until you are ready for orbital tests. Don't tell us how great you are going to be, show us stuff and then overdeliver.
Space ops are still slow, expensive, and unreliable compared to every other mode of transportation...especially if you consider schedule. Rapid upper stage reusability changes that, and here’s a small peek into why.
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@Unpop_Science
Pro tip: If you want to be take seriously in this area, referring to people as "Elon bros" is not going to help your case.
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This is one I've been working on for a while. Thanks to
@SciGuySpace
for posting the scorecard that I used in this part.
It was one long video but it needed to split into parts.
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I have a question for my friends who are more optimistic about Stoke than I am...
What are their 3 biggest barriers to success?
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Why starship loves stainless steel...
Lots of questions about alternate materials for starship. How do they compare to stainless steel?
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I just realized something about Artemis moon missions...
Because Orion is in a NRHO that takes about a week, you have very limited opportunities to get back to it from the surface.
So if something bad happens you may be SOL for a long time. For Apollo it was every 2 hours...
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The first is that they needed to fly with solids for the flight to count for NSSL certification requirements.
The second is that they BE-4 engines are underperforming.
#1
seems more likely.
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I'm seeing lots of posts talking about how impractical HLS is because of propellant boil-off.
For those of you who think that, maybe you'd like to compare your numbers to my numbers?
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This one was a lot of fun and I learned a lot.
Learn why a hydrogen upper stage would have been a horrible choice for Falcon 9.
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Will Anybody build a commercial space station for NASA?
This video has been fighting me for weeks. It ended up addressing the question, "Is there a good business case for working with NASA under this program?"
#NASA
#ISS
#CommercialLEO
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This is really interesting. It's not clear where the other providers - except axiom - are going and getting there first may be a huge benefit.
Vast Space to launch 1st private station on SpaceX rocket in 2025
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If Mike Griffin had done something simple instead of Constellation, NASA would have had an ISS solution and we never would have gotten commercial cargo, crew, and starship.
We should be thankful for that.
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This sort of analysis makes me so happy...
I grew up when space was young and all we had was newpapers, magazines, and the rare TV program.
SpaceX has made a lot of progress preparing the area around the OLM for the new transpirationally cooled steel plates that will replace the surface below the OLM. I have been observing the changes over the past few weeks and this thread will detail my speculations. 1/n
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I was surprised to find that I hadn't done a Falcon Heavy video. Though it turns out to have a lot of Falcon 9 stuff...
#SpaceX
#Falcon9
#FalconHeavy
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Both hardware and people do not do well with slow cadences; the last Atlas V launch was 9 months ago.
There might also be issues with the pad being dual use for Atlas V and Vulcan.
Happening soon, NASA, Boeing and ULA will hold a briefing on the Starliner Crew Flight Test mission scrub. Briefing begins at 3 pm ET (1900 UTC).
Watch live:
Follow this thread for updates. 🧵1/n
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@peterrhague
The other issue that most people don't get is that if you aerobrake it's easier to get to the surface of Mars than the surface of the moon.
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The short-nozzle version of the engine looks very strange...
Staging confirmed. Falcon 9's second stage engine has ignited its shortened engine nozzle to power the 21 OneWeb and Iridium satellites into orbit.
The booster is heading for landing on a drone ship in the Pacific Ocean.
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What are your top 3 reasons why starship is taking so long to develop?
Enquiring minds want to know...
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A little bit of arrogance is probably good in a space company as many things are so hard to do, but you might not want to call the cool render of your new rocket on the launch pad:
"itt_newglenn_home-hero.png"
At least, if you don't want to be teased.
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@SciGuySpace
The concept of NASA exceptionalism is dying. Commercial cargo was the first attack, then when NASA failed at constellation, commercial cargo was next.
SLS/Orion was never a real architecture, and HLS is arguably harder technically.
And ISS is on the way out at some point.
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This one started as part 3 of my analysis of ULA PR, but it morphed into something a little different because ULA is asserting something about rocket design that I do not believe is true, so I look at Falcon 9 and Vulcan Centaur as examples.
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For those saying "that doesn't look like a capsule", a parachute test vehicle that accelerates faster than a capsule lets you test the chutes at a higher speed.
Weird that it's only two parachutes; you generally want the full set because you can get interactions between them.
‼️ STARLINER UPDATE:
Teams from NASA and Boeing completed a two-parachute drop test for the modified parachute system of Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft at the U.S. Army’s Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona. Parachute deployment and a soft landing of the test article were visually
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@SciGuySpace
This one is heading to court.
It's simply not allowed for a company that is going into bankruptcy to make deals that give preferential treatment to one creditor over the others.
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@BellikOzan
I don't believe in name calling, but I did do a whole series of videos on ULA PR because it's both inaccurate and just poorly done. It's kinda embarrassing imo.
Tory has ghosted me on Twitter when it went to a place he didn't want to go, but also given me good answers
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Traditional optimization philosophy is that you start with something safe and slowly tiptoe into higher performance. It works but it takes time and often you never know if you are at the edge.
SpaceX doesn't do that.
/1
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But they are waiting for Dream Chaser so they can fly it to certify for the NSSL contracts. This makes little sense - Dream Chaser is a cheap flight because it's pre-cert and it's going to be a hassle getting it launched because it's a complex beast.
2/n
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If you've wondered why satellites are so expensive, here's the user manual for a mechanism used to deploy a satellite.
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I was looking at this recently for an upcoming video, and my first reaction was "If SLS is a $2 billion rocket this costs you $32 billion just for launch with a single mission.
My second response is, "This chart very clearly shows the advantage of assembly at gateway"...
I think we all need to take a moment to realize how completely and monstrosity fucked the United States space program would be if not for private company’s
What in the hell is this architecture 😭😭😭
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That was fun.
It looked pretty clear to me that they had an oscillation with super heavy and it looked like the grid fins were amplifying it. We should see small movements like on F9, while that was big repetitive movements.
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