DJ Quinlan
@djquinlan
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Political hack...Self-confessed nerd...Loves science, politics, history, and the Oxford comma.
Tempe, AZ
Joined July 2009
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A lot of wishful thinking by GOP operatives in Arizona. The batch of votes counted in Maricopa tonight was a known quantity of late-arriving early votes that were very GOP-leaning. After tonight's batch, the balance are a lot less-friendly for Republicans.
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A Supreme Court justice not disclosing $700k of income from his wife who was actively trying to overturn the 2020 election. In a functioning democracy, there would not be a bigger story in the news.
Justice Clarence Thomas failed to report nearly $700,000 of his wife's income, checking a box that said "none" on disclosure forms--according to
@CommonCause
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Why am I so confident that Biden won Arizona? The majority of ballots left to be counted in AZ are Maricopa County ballots dropped off at the polling place. Party breakdown of Maricopa voters with ballots who didn't return by EDay: Dem: 30%, Rep: 31%, Ind: 38%.
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Arizona Vote Update: 13,097 new ballots from rural counties since Maricopa update this morning. Cumulative % for todays ballots: Trump 53.55%. Trump needed 58% of remaining ballots heading into today, and it won't get easier from here. I'll say it again" Joe Biden will win AZ.
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Arizona Vote Update: 10 minute warning edition
Maricopa County Update at 7PM.
162,982 ballots to count in Maricopa County (241k statewide)
93,334 ballots counted today with Trump receiving 54.2% so far.
Trump needs 57.2% of the remaining 241k votes.
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Worth noting that few voters in this country overcame more obstacles to cast their ballots than those on the Navajo Nation. A major COVID outbreak. Water shortages. Lack of high-speed internet. Vast distances to polling places. Each one of these votes was a heroic act.
Arizona Vote Update: Apache County Edition
1,022 votes counted, 8,378 remaining from Apache.
Trump: 168 (16.44%)
Biden: 842 (82.39%)
116k remaining statewide. Trump needs 60% of remaining.
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TJ could have worked to repeal the 1864 law—he didn’t. He could have worked for exceptions to rape and incest—he didn’t. The outcome today was the intended result, the words of politicians running scared of the consequences of their action are meaningless.
Just a few years ago, when I voted to limit abortions to 15-Weeks (almost four months) in Arizona, I believed then, as I do now, that 15 weeks is what my district believes to be an appropriate timeline. Outreach from my constituents confirmed that to be the case. Today’s Arizona
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Two speeches, both post debate and on the same day. Trump’s speech is a rambling and incoherent list of personal grievances. Biden’s speech is energetic and rallying world leaders.
This comparison of Biden and Trump’s speeches from the exact same day this week needs to be shared a million times
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(1 of 11) A thread about the remaining AZ vote. Topline: estimated 460k votes remaining statewide. 65% in Maricopa County. The count will take days, and Trump needs 57% of the remaining to win, which is very unlikely. I'll explain why below.
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To be clear about what Tyler Bowyer (an Arizona member of the Republican National Committee ) is saying, he believes Latinos live south of Speedway. Deeply racist.
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Latest Maricopa update: 62,002 ballots counted. 25,128 Biden, 35,911 Trump (57.9%). 300k ballots remaining that will be much better for Dems. Might take a couple days, but things are looking really good for Biden.
In 10-ish minutes, we will get another GOP-friendly update from Maricopa County. It won't be as strong as the last update for the GOP, and it leaves perhaps 200k+ Maricopa ballots to count from early ballots dropped at the polls. Those ballots will not skew as Republican.
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It’s a dry hate.
Hundreds of people have lined Scottsdale Rd protesting that ICE & Homeland Security is now using a hotel here to house migrants through at least the summer.
It’s about 105° out but more and more people keep showing up to protest despite the heat. The street is packed.
#azfamily
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A large majority of the Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives just voted to disenfranchise every single voter in Arizona—all based on false conspiracy theories. This is every bit as stupid and dangerous as the rest of the events today.
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Absolutely embarrassing debate performance by
@AbrahamHamadeh
. He looks weak and dishonest.
@krismayes
absolutely crushed him. The contrast could not be any more clear.
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Donald Trump is undoubtedly one of the worst human beings ever to walk on this planet on top of being the worst president by a mile.
In a phone call with CNN minutes after Biden announced his exit from the 2024 race, former President Trump responded, “He is the worst president in the history of our country. He goes down as the single worst president by far in the history of our country.” While it's unclear who
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This is the story. Biden is at 90% in Maricopa County and Haley is at 22%. Suburban swing voters have rejected MAGA in every Arizona election since 2016.
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Update on remaining Arizona votes: 285k votes remaining. Trump needs 58%. Remaining Maricopa will not help Trump. I expect votes counted tomorrow to give us clarity on the final result. My original projection stands.Arizona's 11 electoral votes will go to Joe Biden.
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(11 of 11) Big picture: Trump will make up some more ground. Small batches (Pinal and next batch of Maricopa County ballots) may even give Trump a 60%ish margin—But it is really hard to construct a scenario where Trump even halves the 68k margin. 11 electoral votes for Biden.
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Arizona Vote Update: The Rest of Pima County Edition
3,681 Votes
Trump: 2,022 (54.93%)
Biden: 1,576 (42.81%)
6,671 ballots remaining. Biden +10,988.
Trump only needs 165% of the remaining.
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(Bonus tweet) If you are excited that Arizona is going for Biden, throw a little love to some of the folks who have done much of the heavy lifting:
@LUCHA_AZ
.
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There are about 300k more Maricopa County ballots that will start being counted tomorrow. Three words will begin to start sinking in when that happens: President Joe Biden.
Latest Maricopa update: 62,002 ballots counted. 25,128 Biden, 35,911 Trump (57.9%). 300k ballots remaining that will be much better for Dems. Might take a couple days, but things are looking really good for Biden.
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Arizona vote update: 5,713 Coconino votes and 1,189 Apache County votes. 3,743 for Biden. 2,948 for Trump.
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Oh cool, so only 75% of Arizona Republicans elected to Congress participated in the planning of a violent insurrection…also, don’t expect to hear a peep of criticism from so-called respectable Republicans.
NEW: "Rep. Debbie Lesko attended White House planning meeting to avert Trump's 2020 loss." (via
@ronaldjhansen
)
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Arizona to Donald Trump:
Decision Desk HQ Projects Biden (D) Has Won The State Of AZ And Its 11 Electoral Votes
Race Called At 10:29 PM EST
All Results:
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Arizona Vote Update: Yuma County 4,846 votes. Biden 2,361 (48.72%), Trump 2,337 (48.23%). Small update, but bad news for Trump. Reminder, Joe Biden will win Arizona.
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This is not ok. Arizona has a bipartisan commitment to fair and transparent elections. You can literally stream a video of the tabulation room.
Crowd in front of Maricopa County Recorder’s office now chanting “Stop the Steal”. Sheriff’s deputies stationed at entrance. Another protester with a rifle now in the crowd
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Joe Biden has been amazing for Arizona’s economy.
NEW: Who benefitted the most in the Biden and Trump economies?
Today I published 17 charts (w/
@aden_barton
) to try to answer this Q.
Most of America experienced lower unemployment under Biden. /1
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.
@SenJohnMcCain
but you were totally cool with the whole "deportation force" thing? Seems like a case of saving your own ass.
#McCainFirst
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Arizona Vote Update: Apache County Edition
1,022 votes counted, 8,378 remaining from Apache.
Trump: 168 (16.44%)
Biden: 842 (82.39%)
116k remaining statewide. Trump needs 60% of remaining.
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Arizona vote update: Much more later, but 8,169 new votes from Yuma, Navajo, Graham, Greenlee and Coconino. Trump nets only 292 votes (50.5% to 46.95%). Trump needs huge margins from Rural AZ. Small update, but more evidence of Trump falling short.
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Arizona Vote Update: "The Math Looks a Little Tough" Edition
Maricopa County: 4,057 ballots
Trump: 1,789 (44.1%)
Biden: 2,189 (53.96%)
Less than 10,315 Remaining. Biden +11,434.
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Arizona Vote Update:
Maricopa County, 61,789 ballots
Biden 28,285 (45.77%)
Trump 31,768 (51.41%)
Remember, Trump needed 58% of the remaining. Math will continue to get harder for Trump.
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The remaining 300k-ish ballots from Maricopa County will make up about 65% of the remaining ballots left in AZ. These ballots are provisionals and early ballots dropped at the polls. In '18, this same category of ballots was friendly to Dems. Also 40k left in Pima County.
Additional Maricopa County results are now posted. Unofficial results show 1,792,313 ballots cast. About 275k remaining, plus provisionals. More results to come tomorrow at 7 p.m. Find them at .
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I’m so proud of
@RaquelTeran
. She doesn’t have a trust fund, millions of dollars, or MAGA billionaire friends—but she has integrity and she fights like hell for the people in her community. No matter what happens in the recount, I’m proud of my friend and the race she ran.
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So “ballot harvesting” (which involves no fraud and is simply helping your neighbors return their ballot) was turned into a class 6 felony—but when a Republican commits actual fraud, there is no jail…unbelievable.
Scottsdale woman avoids jail for voting dead mom’s ballot:
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.
@RepOHalleran
is the epitome of a statesman. Gerrymandering made his district un-winnable for a Dem, but Tom rolled up his sleeves and fought like hell—just like his time in Congress. Proud to know him and work with him. Very few Reps. delivered more for their district than Tom.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Eli Crane wins election to U.S. House in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Tom O'Halleran.
#APracecall
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I count 248,621 ballots remaining in AZ. There will be a big Maricopa update at 7PM. The math for Trump in Arizona is clear already, but after another Maricopa update it will be undeniable.
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Remembering LCpl Joseph McCarthy of Concho, AZ. Joe’s good nature and humor infected everyone around him. The photo is of Joe passing out candy to kids at a checkpoint in Fallujah. Joe and six other Marines gave the ultimate sacrifice to our country September 6th, 2004.
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Wow,
@AbrahamHamadeh
tried to steal property from a trust set up by his father, breaking their contract. His father had to file a lawsuit to have the property returned. If Abe is willing to do that to his own family, what will he do as Attorney General?
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It was Mark Brnovich who ran the election integrity unit during the 2020 election, and his signature is one of three on the election certification. If there was fraud, Mark Brnovich was in on it.
Arizonans deserve to have an audit that has ALL the information.
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Arizona Vote Update: Everybody panic edition
Yavapai (Yeah-Vuh-Pie) County: 2,976 votes
Trump: 2,243 (75.37%)
Biden: 623 (20.93%)
The only thing surprising is that there are 623 Democrats in Yavapai County (I think I know them all). All kidding aside, Joe Biden is winning AZ.
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143k ballots counted today, and I hear 280k to go. Trump hit 56.69% Trump needed 57% heading into today with all outstanding ballots. The remaining ballots are less favorable to Republicans. Like I said from the beginning, Trump had votes to cut the margin, but not take a lead.
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Also worth noting, the Maricopa update was the best batch for the GOP without ballots from key Dem-leaning areas. The remaining batch ballots after tonight is the same bucket that put Dems over the top in 2018. Tonights % is not applicable to to remaining ballots. Period.
A lot of wishful thinking by GOP operatives in Arizona. The batch of votes counted in Maricopa tonight was a known quantity of late-arriving early votes that were very GOP-leaning. After tonight's batch, the balance are a lot less-friendly for Republicans.
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@JakeHoffmanAZ
Oh come on, Jake, your Republican colleagues are retreating faster than your hairline. Maybe it’s you who’s got it wrong.
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Minnesota has changed so much that Milwaukee is in Wisconsin.
Laura Ingraham: If you know Minnesota well, and I know it well -- especially Milwaukee -- it's changed.
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This is a big deal. Arizona leaders in rural Arizona continue to come out in support of
@RubenGallego
.
I’m incredibly proud to have the support of this slate of Verde Valley Mayors. They represent the very best of Arizona: tireless public servants who work tirelessly for their neighbors.
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Arizona Vote Update: "Are we there yet?" Edition
Maricopa: 5,291 votes
Remaining statewide: <48k (24k Maricopa, 15k Pima)
Trump 2,982 (56.36%)
Biden 2,213 (41.83%)
More bad news for Trump. This thing seems to be headed to a Biden victory of around 10,000.
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Everyone except Donald Trump can see the writing on the wall. Joe Biden will win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
Seeing no path to victory for Donald Trump, two prominent Phoenix polling firms said Friday they expect Democrat Joe Biden to win Arizona.
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Perhaps no Republican showed more courage during this election than
@JeffFlake
. We disagree on many things, but he excels as a human being. I am thankful for his courage.
Fellow Republicans, don't wait until the election is called to defend our elections and our democratic institutions. The time is now.
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When
@krismayes
campaigned on being a lawyer for the people, she wasn’t joking.
Phoenix apartment complex says AC is back on hours before attorney general's deadline
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Arizona results thread, context edition: Pima County late early votes are not the same as the county as a whole! We expected the whole batch of outstanding Pima votes to favor marginally. Trump was up slightly in the first half. Doesn't change the expected outcome.
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Arizona Vote Update: Maricopa County
6,397 ballots. Up to 32k left in Maricopa
Up to 62k statewide (39k provisional)
Trump 3,196 (49.96%)
Biden 3,056 (47.77%)
Outlook: Trump doing what he needs to do to lose by less than 10k. Not much more.
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If you like having a functioning democracy in AZ, let me introduce you to the two of the most important Dems to elect in Nov:
@TimStringhamAZ
for Maricopa County Recorder and
@DanielVPhx
. Without victory for both, election deniers will have control over elections for 60% of AZ.
Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer just lost his Republican primary — a major blow to how the Arizona county's elections will likely be administered.
Richer defended Arizona's election processes and the results of the state's 2020 and 2022 races.
Richer lost to Justin
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Reminder, no one discovered today that a 160 year old abortion ban could go into effect. There have been many bills to repeal the abortion ban from
@SStahlHamilton
this session and
@RaquelTeran
in past sessions. The very same Republican who are crying today did nothing then.
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Impressive Q1 for
@RubenGallego
, the trend lines here are absolutely devastating for Sinema. Gallego’s grass-roots fundraising will continue to multiply while Sinema’s reliance on special-interest max out donors is already showing signs of hitting diminishing returns.
🚨🚨
@RubenGallego
announced mega first Q with over 100K donations.
99% of donors can give again. 🔥
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January 6th was not a spontaneous uprising, it was part of an organized conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. The Maricopa County “audit” is part of the very same conspiracy.
This is the six-point plan advanced by Trump lawyer John Eastman for VP Pence to overturn the election on January 6th.
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More context: big Maricopa update coming shortly, but so far today 67,767 ballots counted mostly on Trump turf, and Trump has a 57/40 margin. Trump needs all of the remaining ballots to perform at 57%, and the second half of Maricopa just isn't that friendly for him.
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Con artists coming to Mesa, keep an eye on your wallet.
Can’t wait to join President Trump this Sunday in Mesa!
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Ok, so who had the Trump Arizona AG candidate committing voter fraud to help Obama on your 2022 bingo card? Reason number 2,131,432 to vote for
@krismayes
for AG.
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@Garrett_Archer
@CrumblCookies
That might be a way for the employee to share that the company is stealing the tips.
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Things just got considerably more dangerous. I am very worried. Heavily armed conspiracy theorists do not mix with the democratic process.
Right on time:
Alex Jones just showed up at the Maricopa County election center to do his batshit crazy thing...
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Arizona Vote Update: "Is anyone still paying attention?" edition (a thread)
Arizona counted 12,504 ballots today, with up to 60,922 (my count) remaining. Just under 37k are provisional ballots, which won't all be accepted.
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.
@dougducey
made the California recall a priority for
@The_RGA
. He even created a committee and hosted a call with “major donors” to fund the the recall. I’m guessing those donors are not happy campers tonight.
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What a tell from the overpaid frat boys at the Goldwater Institute…they pretend to be a tax-payer watchdog until government waste is good for the bottom line. What hypocrisy…
Gov Hobbs’ proposed assault on ESA families and private education is an embarrassment. It should be rejected outright. 🧵
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(4 of 11) The 200k-ish Maricopa ballots dropped off at the polling place are a whole different ballgame for Trump. The votes will come from a pool of voters with an Independent plurality, D’s and R’s even, and skew much younger--thus a probable Biden-advantage from this bucket.
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75,314 Maricopa votes counted: Trump 42,276 (56.13%, Biden 31,700 (42.09%). Trump needed more from this batch.
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So
@WendyRogersAZ
proclaims her dislike of traitors by proclaiming her love of offensive sports team names, outdated racial archetype characters, and two actual traitors? Got it. Thanks to
@dougducey
and Ken Kendrick for raising boatloads of money to elect this extremist.
I like Indians and I like Redskins. I like Aunt Jemima and I like Uncle Ben. I like Robert E Lee and I like Stonewall Jackson. I don’t like traitors who hate America. Stand up for our culture!
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Shameful moment for our state,
@RepGosar
objecting to the certification of Arizona’s electoral votes, thereby attempting to undermine democracy and disenfranchise 3.4 million voters. Every Arizonan should remind him of this moment for the rest of his life.
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Arizona Vote Update: Hey it's only an hour late edition.
Maricopa County, 6,862 votes
Trump 2,999 (43.70%)
Biden 3,753 (54.69%)
Pinal
Trump 8,567 (63.85%)
Biden 4,491 (33.47%)
Not a good day for Trump in AZ, just 52% today. 75k (probably less) ballots remaining.
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More context: 220k remaining, more than half in Maricopa. It is clear that Joe Biden has won Arizona, the only question is by how much.
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(2 of 11) Best info I have about remaining Maricopa vote: 275k early ballots, 17k provisionals = 65% of the remaining ballots statewide. About 65k from a GOP-leaning batch of early voters. The balance (200k-ish) comes from a pool of voters that is more friendly to Biden.
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Agree with this. Arizona has one of the best run election systems in the country.
Arizona Secretary of State just now on
@CNN
: "There are absolutely no irregularities happening in this process whatsoever, and anybody making claims to the contrary absolutely just has no idea what they're talking about."
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It's official: 3 of the 4 Republicans in Congress from Arizona voted to object to the certification of the electoral votes from their own state...a shameful and embarrassing moment in our history.
@DebbieLesko
,
@RepAndyBiggsAZ
, and
@RepGosar
are literally the worst.
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Wow! Mark Brnovich putting
@dougducey
's court packing scheme on blast. That has to be what he is talking about, right?
Expanding the size of the Supreme Court would be nothing less than a direct assault on judicial independence.
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Arizona Vote Update: Sorry it's late edition
Apache County: 3,038 votes
Biden 1,895 (62.38%)
Trump 1,100 (36.21%)
Navajo County: 244 votes
Biden 91 (37.3%)
Trump 148 (60.66%)
Trump needs 60% of 104k remaining.
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The mapping consultant hired by the IRC is the go-to firm for GOP gerrymandering and drawing discriminatory maps.
BREAKING: AZ Redistricting Commission hires a mapping consultant with long ties to Republicans
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Arizona Vote Update:
Pima County: 7,219 votes
Trump: 3,640 (50.42%)
Biden: 3,352 (46.43%)
Gila County: 204 votes
Trump: 134 (65.69%)
Biden: 68 (33.3%)
Cumulative 11/6: 88,186, Trump 53.18% (needs 58%)
Remaining ballots: 243,244 (162k Maricopa)
Reminder: Biden will win AZ
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Arizona vote context: 220k ballots remaining. If Trump Maricopa % from this morning holds for the remaining 140k there, he would need over 77% from 80k ballots elsewhere, including 11k from Apache (22% for Trump yesterday) and 25k from Pima (51% Trump yesterday).
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Arizona Vote Update: Pima County Edition
7,142 votes (up to 11,558 remaining in Pima)
Trump 3,616 (50.63%)
Biden 3,351 (46.92%)
This margin is really bad news for the guy trying to stay past his lease.
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I'll speak for myself, but this veteran would like to see
@dougducey
set aside partisanship in the COVID response everyday. A statewide mask mandate would save lives and is only a tiny sacrifice. The science is clear, but
@dougducey
's political calculation is getting in the way.
Unfortunate to see this kind of politicization of COVID and Vets Day, esp from someone I’ve previously respected and defended to her colleagues. Hoping this isn’t the kind of tone and vitriol we are going to see in the coming session. A day after Gov calls Dems leaders, no less.
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@WillNovak13
By all means, get some sleep. It will take a little longer, but when all the votes are counted, Arizona will have sent Joe Biden to the White House.
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Before McSally started her losing 2018 Senate campaign, she took her name off of a bipartisan bill that would have provided a pathway for citizenship for Dreamers.
Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is calling on Trump and Congress to "do what is right" by DACA recipients. But her view of what is right flipped when she was running for the Senate in 2018 and abandoned the Dreamers. via
@azcentral
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Arizona Vote Update: Final Countdown Edition
Maricopa County: 13,143 votes
Trump 7,019 (53.4%)
Biden 5,826 (44.33%)
Biden up 11,635. Max 27k remaining (22k provisional). The only thing left to know is the final margin...likely around 10k.
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Arizona Vote Update: Maricopa County Edition
71,932 ballots
Trump: 38,388 (53.37%)
Biden: 31,433 (43.70%)
Trump needs 58.82% of remaining ballots.
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Wow! So Georgia and PA will take the attention away from another Trump-friendly update in Arizona today (another big Maricopa update at 7PM). Expect expect the Trump's momentum in the count to lose steam after tonight's Maricopa update and the remaining Pinal County ballots.
Breaking: newly counted votes in Chatham Co., GA (Savannah) just cut Trump's statewide lead to 3,635 votes (0.1%).
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To be clear, the ruling today was the intended result by the extremists who authored the bill. They left the territorial ban in place in case Roe was overturned. Also, a 15 week ban with no exceptions for rape or incest is extreme policy—not even remotely “thoughtful.”
I signed the 15-week law as Governor because it is thoughtful conservative policy, and an approach to this very sensitive issue that Arizonans can actually agree on. The ruling today is not the outcome I would have preferred, and I call on our elected leaders to heed the will of
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Love this.
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Arizona Vote Update: Baja Arizona Edition
4,589 votes
Trump 2,129 (46.39%)
Biden 2,343 (51.06%)
Biden leads by 12,828 with up to 40k remaining (22k provisional). This batch is devastating to the tiny hope Trump had left in Arizona.
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Arizona Vote Update: Every vote counts edition
692 votes from Apache, Navajo, Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties
Trump 264 (38.15%)
Biden 410 (59.25%)
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Decision Desk HQ Projects Biden (D) Has Won The State Of AZ And Its 11 Electoral Votes
Race Called At 10:29 PM EST
All Results:
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Very on-brand for one of the foremost losers in the state. Austin lies about “election integrity” conspiracies on a daily basis only to get caught forging petition signatures for his campaign.
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I’ve seen enough,
@YESon308AZ
will pass!!! Thanks to
@CPLCActionFund
,
@ABICaction
,
@ReynaEMontoya
,
@jrpatino12
,
@TylerJMontague
,
@RebeccaShi1985
,
@RovikaRajkishun
and so many more.
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Well this should be a bigger story...
SCOOP: Ga. SoS Raffensperger says Sen. Lindsey Graham pressured him to toss legal ballots.
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Here’s a not-so-hot take: the only folks who are mad about this have financial interests at stake. We all have a have a friend or loved one hit hard by the unbelievable surge in rent that occurred over the last few years. I’m thankful we have an AG who fights for consumers.
Why is the rent so damn high? RealPage and landlords allegedly conspired to illegally fix rental prices for hundreds of thousands of renters in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas.
So, I'm suing them.
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Love this.
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AZ-08 now officially has the most embarrassing collection of candidates in the history of history.
AZ—Ex-Rep. Trent Franks, R, announces he is running for Rep. Debbie Lesko’s seat, saying: “I truly believe the 2024 election is vital to the survival of a free, prosperous, and strong America in the world.” Background on his 2017 departure from Congress:
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This behavior is shameful. We should be thanking our election workers who are doing heroic and completely transparent work under difficult conditions.
Congressman Paul Gosar in the middle of this protest outside the county recorder’s office. Protestors, many armed, talking about debunked Sharpie conspiracy. Some chanting “count the vote.” County deputies now clearing reporters from the lobby out of caution.
#12News
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Arizona Vote Update: "Yeah it's close, but Biden is still going to win edition."
Maricopa batch was friendlier to Trump than expected, but half of the ballots outstanding heading into today were tallied, and Trump did not hit his number, and that hurts for him.
More below.
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Arizona Vote Update: November 6th Context Edition
165,878 ballots tabulated today.
169,182 remaining (91k Maricopa).
Trump received 53.77% of the votes today. It is not enough.
He now needs 58.82% of the remaining ballots.
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