Aaron Layman
@dfwaaronlayman
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Real Estate Broker | Housing Analyst | Finance | Monetary Policy | Education | Fitness | Tennis Ace | The market doesn't care about your narrative.
Texas, USA
Joined January 2010
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Last Seen Profiles
Or anyone (including their spouses) who ever boarded a plane with Jeffrey Epstein, or anyone who invited Ghislaine Maxwell to their daughter's wedding.
Don't vote for anyone you wouldn't trust with your dog.
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Most Texans don't like to hear this, but the comparisons are valid.
The estimates for TX property taxes were likely understated. The Texas property tax system itself is particularly regressive in both structure and implementation.
Loopholes galore for wealthy owners.
“Texans actually pay more in taxes than Californians do, unless those Texans are in the top one percent of all earners. “
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Mortgage brokers and real estate agents screaming in fear now that rates are 40 basis points higher AFTER a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed. 😂
🚨🏡
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just popped up to 6.53%
That's a BIG one-day move
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How boomer wealth is created in Texas:
Inherit or buy a homestead with acreage. Live on your own private park, and call it an "agricultural" activity.
File your "ag" exemption with the county appraisal district. Could be any number of frivolous items including beekeeping
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Singapore gets it.
20% land transfer tax on a second home, 30% on the third. 60% duty on foreign investment, 65% on entities and trustees.
If you want to encourage home ownership, you have to regulate/curb the financialization of the housing stock.
Singapore demonstrating what a govt does when they actually want to promote owner-occupied housing, in a market where supply can’t meet demand.
Stamp duty is like land transfer tax; can’t be mortgaged.
@SteveSaretsky
@IceCapGlobal
@ronmortgageguy
@JohnPasalis
@RichardDias_CFA
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What is happening in the Texas home insurance market is literally insane. Proposed renewal wanted a 57 percent increase from last year. Perfect credit, no claims.
Just pure cartel-level price gouging. 🤑
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We've fostered an entire generation that doesn't understand why there should be a cost to capital.
This is frightening.
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The United States has more housing per capita than any point in the last 20 years.
At the same time you have industry pundits telling you the U.S. is undersupplied by 2-5 million homes because we just haven't been building enough over the last two decades.
#Financialization
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Homes vs financialized trading cards
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@FairweatherPhD
Vote-buying nonsense often receives a welcome reception. People generally love free money when the direct consequences are not clearly disclosed.
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@NewsLambert
@Lennar
There should be an MLS violation and fine for putting a "representative" photo on a listing which is not really representative of the actual product.
Customers should have a reasonably accurate expectation of what they are showing up for.
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Friendly reminder that the Federal Reserve has close to 1900 "other officers" earning an average of $268,000 per year to promote groupthink and general economic incompetence.
Total 2022 staff budget of more than $2.75 billion for over 21,000 employees.
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Canada's housing casino...
Uber driver agreed to pay over $2 million for pre-construction. Got a pre-approval for $5,000/month mortgage. (insane)
Now looking at payment of $12k-15k/month on a home already valued $300,000 less than original contract.
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This is the way.
Dallas bans STR's in single-family neighborhoods.
STR properties allowed in multifamily & commercial zones, but they will be subject to registration & hotel taxes, fees. 👏
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If you are a licensed agent and you don't understand how mortgage rates are a half point higher after the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut, you probably should find a new line of work.
Customers/consumers deserve a higher level of professionalism and competency from the industry.
Real Estate Agents frantically googling,
“What is a 10 year yield?”
“What are spreads?”
“Where are my low rates?”
“How to become an Uber Driver”
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A lot of recent Texas transplants from out of state have no clue/appreciation of how the Texas property tax system works or how much future debt they agreed to take on when they purchased a home.
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Average home price in the city of Dallas TX dropped $108,000 from the June peak to August.
Preliminary closing data for September shows another drop, putting prices down $130,000 from June.
That would be a 19.9% nosedive so far.
Back in the spring,
@JBREC
predicted that spiked mortgage rates could push home prices lower even if inventory levels didn't skyrocket.
It looks like they're right.
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This is investor/speculator nonsense.
Have we underbuilt by 5-7 million homes...of course not.
The continued pressure on affordable supply can make it feel like we have a huge shortage, but the truth is more an issue of priorities and housing use.
No amount of new construction
Since 2009 the U.S. has massively underbuilt single-family housing. General consensus is 5-7 million single-family homes underbuilt.
At the same time the baby boomers are staying in their homes a decade longer than previous generations.
80 Million millennials are in peak
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Wonder how the "marry the house & date the rate" crowd is feeling today?🤔
BIG JUMP
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.29%
Highest mortgage rate reading since November 28, 2023
Spread: 278 bps
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A pair of NJ loan officers arrested for mortgage fraud - systematically originating loans for investment properties while labeling them as primary residences to get the lower rates.
You can rest assured this is the tip of the iceberg. Only question is whether the DOJ has the
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@TennisonEddie
Sorry, but that's simply not true. Texas property taxes are obviously not collected in a manner which is remotely uniform/fair.
I can show you examples like the one cited all day long. Texas legislature created an operationally corrupt system, one which benefits wealthy owners.
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Friendly reminder that if your house was worth what you think it is the Federal Reserve wouldn't feel the need to hold $2.62 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. 😉
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'Single-family home sales to investors hit all-time high'
Remember this when you hear industry players talking up the housing "shortage" in the U.S. (and other countries as well)
It's not a supply problem. It's a housing use problem!
#financialization
"The share of homes
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Interesting look at how PPP liquidity was used by existing homeowners to mop up even more real estate.
QE + PPP = Housing market financialization.
It's almost like we have a housing use problem instead of the advertised housing "shortage".
This map shows Bay County 2nd homes / (non owner-occ) purchased using names and addresses of ppp recipients around the time of that program. I released Part 1 of "PPP Pumped Real Estate" today, linked below
@VladTheInflator
@m3_melody
@TravisREMindset
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Opendoor is apparently the proud owner of this fine home. Originally listed for $625,000 back in May at the top of the market here.
167 days later it's available for 22% less at $485,000.
Oops!
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Corporate welfare queen is also a deadbeat tenant. Shocking. Not.
"The pattern has become familiar for companies doing business with Twitter since billionaire Musk bought the company last fall for $44 billion."
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@AndrewYang
So we should ignore the much larger interference in American elections by American billionaires and U.S. corporate media and keep playing the Russia, Russia, Russia card???
No thanks.
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@AliWolfEcon
Show me the actual homes, and I'll bet you they are still too expensive for what they are actually selling.
Absolutely comical what some builders are still attempting to pass off as plausible prices. It's like some of them think the Fed is still engaged in QE.
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Agent/owner flip gone wrong. Originally listed for $799k, reduced by 17%. 😬
Not thrilled with the $14,000 annual property tax bill?
Too busy to keep up with the landscaping? (that dead tree 😢)
Conveniently located next to a mosquito farm. 😂
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@Barbie
Cute toys for the kleptocrat class.
You forgot to add the Barbie dying on a ventilator because the candidate, campaign manager & fundraiser co-opted the will of the voters to give everyone the "Affordable" Care Act. 😉
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Don't look now, but mortgage rates are only 18 basis points from a 7-handle again.
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Austin and San Antonio posting STR revenue drops of 48%, 47%. And no one should shed a tear.
"65% more homes listed for rent on Airbnb than listed for sale."
That goes to the heart of this warped, flipped hyper-financialized market.
"Why Airbnb owners are about to Sell"
Revenue per available listing in Phoenix DOWN 48% in May compared to May last year.
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Remember when many real estate agents and loan officers were telling buyers to marry the house and date the rate?
Fun times. 😂
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"Per the 2019 10-k, Hertz paid Icahn-controlled companies $57 million in related party transactions last year, including property lease payments."
The best way to rob a company is to own it.
The Hertz bankruptcy is not a story of financialization by an entrenched, self-dealing management team.
It's a story of financialization by an entrenched, self-dealing minority ownership team.
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Plenty of Airbnvestors who are now realizing they were liquidity-driven speculators.
And no one should shed a tear.
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@KyleKulinski
Obama's problem was (and still is) a flawed belief that elegant rhetoric and platitudes would be a substitute for actually governing.
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Realtors and loan officers: "That jobs report is not real."
JUST IN: The US economy added a blockbuster 353,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations of 180,000. This is a really healthy economy. (December jobs revised up to 333,000)
Unemployment rate: 3.7%
Wage growth: 4.5% in past year —>far ahead of 3.4% inflation
#jobs
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@ziti512_marian
Bingo!
I have been researching the Texas property tax system for over a decade. Testified before a Senate panel.
It's one of the most operationally corrupt systems you could possibly design, and structured to benefit the wealthiest property owners.
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Toll Brothers Q4 results.
Higher sales, but orders collapsed.
"Net signed contract value was $1.3 billion, down 56% compared to FY 2021’s fourth quarter; contracted homes were 1,186, down 60%."
Quarterly cancellations as % of signed contracts in Q4 jumped from 4.6% to 20.8% 😮
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TX transplants getting their wake-up call when it comes to property taxes. This lovely home just hit the market. Could end up as a short sale.
Purchased new with a jumbo loan last summer. CAD notice shows a $12,851 property tax bill. 😬
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D.R. Horton $DHI reports Q1 (ending Dec 22) sales down 6%.
Sales orders drop 38% (40% in value).
Cancellation rate spikes to 27% from 15% last year.
Backlog of homes under contract falls 46%.
Average order price falls $15,714 to $367,912.
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A lesson in mean reversion
Median home prices in Prosper TX have fallen $234,000 (25%) from the bubble peak in the spring of 2022. 😮
This is how Texas new home development works. There's always another pasture down the road. In this case Prosper is melting north to Celina. 😅
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If you're in your mid 30's and need your parent's help to afford the down payment on a modest home, you probably don't have any business buying a home in a volatile, overbaked housing market.
Talked to friend today. He works hard but can't afford down payment on modest home. Mid 30s, doesn't have kids and doesn't feel financially able to. Will inherit $ when they're very old but won't even need it then. Parents won't help at all now. Makes no sense, story is common
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The city of Dallas just hit 4.6 months of supply. (up 53% from a year ago). 😮
Average prices in Dallas Texas just fell 9.9% YoY in August. This is after a hilarious spike in luxury home sales in May that took prices to an all-time high.
#meanreversion
For more context into
Months of Supply in Phoenix is 2.9 months.
A year ago at this time, it was 1.9 months.
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It's almost like the U.S. has a housing USE problem and not a housing shortage problem. 🤔
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"From 2014 – 2019, the same years that CEO and Chairman Doug pocketed $200 million in real money stock-based comp, American Airlines had *negative* free cash flow of $3.2 billion.
And took on an additional $14 billion in debt.
And bought back $13 billion of its stock."
#BITTFG
American Airlines CEO Doug Parker wrote a letter today that has saccharine words, but is in truth a shakedown letter to employees and a ransom note to the US gov't.
I'm going to share that letter.
And then I'm going to tell you a few things about Doug.
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I am firmly convinced that Mark Zuckerberg is a high functioning sociopath, so I enjoyed this immensely. Well done
@EpsilonTheory
.
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The bill would restrict investors who purchase 50 or more single-family rentals from deducting interest or depreciation on those properties from their taxes.
50 is still way too many. Reduce the cap to 2. No loopholes for LLC or trusts.
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@RogerDeReu
That's the entire point of a land tax. You promote development (production, housing etc) instead of hoarding (wealth inequality).
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@Hadas_Gold
@matthewstoller
@AOC
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." John Kenneth Galbraith
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@SMTuffy
There's also this thing called a property tax, which hits homeowners every year without fail...regardless of whether they have sold their home.
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Luxury suburbia in North Texas experiencing a major haircut, with more pain to come.
Average prices in Celina TX down $153,000 (18.7%) from May peak.
Average prices in Prosper TX down $154,000 (16%) from May's blow-off top.
#2022HousingReset
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Leadership at the
@usopen
@usta
&
@CDCgov
should be advocating for
@DjokerNole
to be allowed to enter the U.S. and play US Open.
Until that happens, they have no credibility.
#LetNovakPlay
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@KleptocracyIntv
@scoopercooper
“It will effectively kill real estate finance." ROTFLMAO!
No, but it will probably curtail money laundering through expensive NY real estate.
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LOL! 🤣🤣🤣
It's beyond amusing to see the Dallas Fed come clean after the Federal Reserve gobbled up $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities to drive mortgage rates into the basement, ramped the balance sheet to $8.9 trillion and fueled all manner of reckless speculation
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"“Inflation is transitory” is the new “subprime is contained”."
Over the past four quarters, the US has generated more wage inflation than at any point over the past 40 years.
This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. A wage-price inflation cycle is here.
I’m not predicting. I’m observing.
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North TX home price correction through September (median prices):
Dallas County ⬇️ $40,000 - 10.1%
Tarrant County ⬇️ $21,000 - 5.6%
Collin County ⬇️ $55,768 - 9.7%
Denton County ⬇️ $52,000 - 10.4%
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Siri: Show me what it looks like when a housing market bubble goes pop.
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DFW months of supply for new homes July 2022:
Dallas County - 3.4 months ⬆️70%
Tarrant County - 4.3 months ⬆️ 126%
Collin County - 4.5 months ⬆️ 114%
Denton County - 4.6 months ⬆️ 142%
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Zillow pulls the data from the MLS. If the MLS' didn’t allow Zillow access, it has nothing to display (and no ads to sell!) Zillow is aimed at consumers, where MLS is aimed at licensed RE professionals.
Biggest mistake most MLS boards made was ignoring the threat from Zillow &
Explain to me like I’m 5 why residential MLS’s still exist now that we have Zillow and Redfin
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A friendly reminder that the free market will NOT solve the housing affordability problem. New supply alone will not make houses cheaper...not when every predator & opportunist under the sun is waiting in the wings to mop up the affordable inventory.
The U.S. construction sector
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@paulkrugman
Heaven forbid we let something as simple as math get in the way of your narrative.
Fact check: Cuomo & de Blasio have presided over the worst policy response of the pandemic resulting in over 31,000 NY deaths.
But you keep doing you.
#partisanhack
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The bigger the housing bubble, the sharper the correction. Home prices in these 2 North TX suburbs both collapsing back to roughly same point.
Median prices in McKinney TX down $85,000 (15%) from spring peak.
Median prices in Allen TX down $157,000 (24%) from peak.
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Harvard has a $53 billion endowment.
It also produces economists telling you it would be prudent for the Fed to raise its inflation target.
🤡 College
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This is how private equity works.
Slap some paint on the facade.
Pretend you are a humanitarian solving crime, drug use & social issues beyond your control.
🤑Double the Rents. 🤑
One of our community’s before and after. This is how a value-add works. From crime, drugs, $500 rents, garbage, no rules, no safety, to fresh, clean, $1,050 rents and tenant peace of mind (they put their own flowers out)!
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@nprpolitics
Should be fun watching what's left of the nation's transportation infrastructure siphoned off to private equity with the help of a McKinsey consultant.
But hey, Unity. Pass it on.
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@jamestalarico
@EvilMopacATX
Well done! Keep grilling these scam artists. They deserve every bit of scrutiny you can throw at them.
As a former public school teacher, it is sickening to watch what Abbott is trying to do to Texas public schools and education in general.
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After causing massive wealth inequality, Fed officials warn rising inequality threatens U.S. economic strength. 🤔
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@KeeangaYamahtta
We listened (at least I did), and then watched as he foreclosed on 9 million Americans so he could bail out a bunch of Wall Street crooks.
Empty promises.
Empty rhetoric.
Empty values.
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“The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost.”
Paul Krugman
The North Carolina Rate Bureau is asking for an average statewide increase in homeowners’ insurance rates of 42.2%
The bureau has asked for the N.C. insurance hikes to become effective on August 1, 2024
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When I said Collin County & North TX suburbs could be the epicenter of the DFW correction I wasn't kidding.
Celina average prices down $179k (22%) from spring peak.
Prosper down $157k.
Collin County average prices down $92,000.
*Preliminary data as of Oct 29*
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Yep. Drop those rates to 4%, and watch home prices fall. 😂
Sounds like Grant has some syndication deals at stake.😅
Dear Donald Trump,
Jerome Powell under Biden Administration has created a housing nightmare. If something is not done, investors will control a majority of the housing in America, turning single family homes into rentals.
As you know, interest rates do NOT control pricing,
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Biden's housing policy solutions are ridiculous for a housing market suffering from an affordability crisis and low inventory.
If the administration were truthful and serious, they would ramp up taxes and carrying costs for all of the investors and speculators still
Massive fiscal stimulus contributing to housing inflation. Biden solution? More fiscal stimulus 🤷🏻
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Toronto's vacant home tax on roughly 19,598 property owners is raking in serious revenue, over $50 million.
This is the way. Tax the profiteers and financialization artists into oblivion.
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@matthewstoller
@AOC
The only "green" new deal he's going to rally around is the green going into his bank account. Lifestyles of the Necker Island plutocrats. 😉
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Frisco Texas has erased all of the year's home price gains. Median home prices in Frisco have collapsed $135k from spring peak. Average prices have plummeted $177k.
A lot more room to fall before we get back to pre-pandemic trend.
#2022HousingReset
#FriscoTX
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When I think of how screwed up things are in America, I take comfort in the fact that at least we're not 🇨🇦. 😅
Pretty damning article. In the near future it will be obvious to most Canadians this govt mortgaged our children's future and only accomplished a massive wealth transfer from the young to the old. Some fun charts on how fked things have become (paywall)
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As of December, the median price for a home in Austin Texas was $106,000 lower than the spring 2022 bubble peak.
Median home price in Prosper Texas is still $105,000 lower.
🫧🫧🫧
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Still over 1.6 million housing units under construction in the U.S, but that won't stop clown show economists and Fed apologists from talking up a housing "shortage".
Interesting that single-family completions rose 15.4% for the month & 13.6% from last year.
This new supply
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Layman's terms translation: We're not returning to pre-pandemic housing affordability.
IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels
IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability.
IF U.S. mortgage rates fell 4 percentage points, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability
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Dallas-based Builders FirstSource cutting 2600 positions. Looks like the "pent up demand" story is done for a while.
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Scum-sucking parasites of the worst order.
#RealPage
RealPage has accomplished the improbable: widespread cartelization of diffuse real estate markets. A staggering 81% of multifamily rental units in Atlanta use revenue management software.
All of the below properties are using RealPage's software to hike rents.
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@andyroddick
Indeed. Novak is a masterful tactician. Just incredible to watch. Many who have never played the game still don't appreciate the gravity of his accomplishments or the skill required to do what he does.
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A reminder that America's housing "shortage" problem is really a housing use problem.
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This is good.
Invitation Homes and the other predators in the U.S. housing space should be taxed into oblivion.
The U.S. needs more affordable homes for families, not corporations looking to pull up the ladder and hoard the wealth.
Welcome to the reality of the Lone Star states that house investors have swarmed in the last few years. Per
@InvitationHomes
missed its Funds from Operations “entirely due to higher than anticipated property taxes in the state of Texas.”
@MorganStanley
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Warning to Texas transplants buying homes with incompetent/lazy representation:
Received a call from a reader of my column a few days ago which was both sad and infuriating. This gentleman bought a home in 2022, supposedly represented by an agent.
For some reason he didn't file
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The U.S. housing "shortage" ranges from 1.7 million units to a laughable 7.3 million units depending on which organization you talk to. 🤔
If you remove the financialization and perverse tax incentives which facilitate hoarding, the real # is zero.
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"...It is equally beyond doubt, that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money."
The Economist 1858
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