John Burns Research and Consulting
@JBREC
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Every quarter, we summarize key performance statistics and market insight reported from the publicly traded builders.
Check out some of the highlights from 2Q24 below.
1
1
14
12,000+ people are turning 35 years old every day in the US.
Remember talking about 10,000 people turning 65 every day?
This is even bigger.
With the median age of first-time buyers at 35 years old, expect solid housing demand in the near-term.
7
43
132
Homes listed for sale due to old-age deaths to hit almost 800K by 2033.
Big number, but it’s less than 1% of today’s 83M owner-occupied homes.
Aging Baby Boomers will not crash the housing market.
11
25
73
Small landlords own nearly 9 in 10 single-family rental homes in America.
Our research found that small investors accounted for 28% of all homes sold during 1Q2022, compared to 6% for large investors owning 10+ homes.
By
@VinjeruM
and
@TheEconomist
:
6
15
53
Unprecedented wealth creation is driving the housing market.
People born before 1970 now control $107 trillion in wealth, and they can’t take it with them.
So they are buying homes, helping their adult kids buy/rent homes, and remodeling.
6
21
43
Shifts in US population over the next 10 years mean a larger prime-working-age population (ages 25-54)—aided by immigration—and a booming 70+ population.
Expect losses in active-adult / late career groups (ages 55-69), teens and early 20s.
3
10
40
A little over a year ago, the monthly cost of owning (as we calculate it*) and renting were virtually identical.
Now, owning a home costs $839 more per month than renting. This differential is almost $200 higher than at any time since the turn of the century.
8
13
39
Baby Boomers are set for longer, richer retirements than their parents.
The avg. Boomer is now 67 and will live another 21 years.
Expect 2 more decades of the avg. Boomer spending on their home and helping their adult children buy or rent.
6
13
32
"Soft landing is a PR phrase,” said Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer (
@GrantsPub
).
“It’s sweet, benign, and unlikely.”
Jim and
@RickPalaciosJr
kicked off the morning with historical cycles to help strategize for tomorrow.
#jbrec
1
6
32
In our recent Home Builder Survey,
@RickPalaciosJr
noted that builders in many metro areas were starting to see broad-based cost relief on the materials side while anticipating relief on the labor side.
Read more from
@conorsen
+
@business
1
2
23
Many people signed contracts for new homes with near-record-low mortgage rates in mind. Now, rates are surging
“The chances of [the buyer] no longer being able to qualify for this home go up significantly" said
@RickPalaciosJr
By
@NicoleFriedman
+
@WSJ
:
4
7
27
The housing bubble is set to pop.
Assessing the criteria that we set almost a decade ago, we have found that 16 of the 20 housing bubble signs are now flashing red.
In last month’s client-exclusive housing outlook webinar, CEO
@johnburnsjbrec
called out some signs we are seeing
0
8
26
Dir. of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
writes for
@FortuneMagazine
:
Home sales, construction volumes, and now home prices are falling. Clearly, the fact mortgage rates exploded from 2.6% in Dec 2020 to 6% in early Sept is handcuffing many would-be homebuyers.
2
3
24
More than one in four houses purchased by a professional rental investor in Q4 2021 was a new home, according to our research in partnership with
@NRHCouncil
.
More from
@RickPalaciosJr
and our rental market research below.
Article by
@_willparker_
@WSJ
0
11
21
The U.S. needs about 17.1 million housing units built this decade, incl. single-family, multifamily, and manufactured housing to satisfy current and future demand.
We analyze the 50 largest metro areas is in our client-exclusive white paper, America’s Needed Housing Construction
2
1
21
How long will home builder euphoria last? 🏡
Director of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
makes the case for continued new home resilience on the latest New Home Insights Podcast.
2
6
19
In October 2021, we published an article identifying $30 billion in capital chasing strong single-family rent growth. Only 3 short months later, that number has increased to over $50 billion.
You view the full-sized timeline here:
1
9
20
Home Depot’s revenue is so large, at $157 billion, that their earnings report has become a highly reliable summary of housing market conditions.
@EricFinnigan
shares 7 important lessons on the state of building material demand and construction costs.
1
4
19
Population growth in the US is less-driven by natural change—births minus deaths—than in recent memory.
500K+ in natural change is growing once again, but lower than the pre-pandemic era.
Plan for immigration to drive more of the growth in the future.
1
6
19
Good news for the US:
The US population is set to match or outgrow most global economic superpowers over the next decade.
Of course this could change quickly if legislation, regulations, or policy suddenly clamp down on immigration flows.
6
3
16
Existing homeowners are “sitting pretty,” said
@RickPalaciosJr
. They have no financial incentive to sell — after all, high rents mean they can easily find a tenant to cover their costs and then some.
More from
@ConorDougherty
+
@bencasselman
:
3
5
18
The economy is resilient but not red hot.
Neil Dutta, Head of Econ at
@RenMacLLC
, tells us to resist the temptation to pencil in any recession calls. The economy is not getting away from the Fed and wage growth is cooling.
#jbrecsummit
1
4
16
Kyla 🤝 Providing an economic toolkit
In our recent podcast,
@kylascan
and our Principal, Dean Wehrli, delve into the bridging the gap between complex economic concepts and everyday decision-making.
Click the link below to listen to the podcast.
3
2
11
Timely data and analysis on the US economy, housing industry, demographics, and more—all in one place.
Follow our list of JBREC experts below.
1
4
12
Investors purchase 20% of all homes sold nationally today! (combining resale and new)
This number is shooting higher in many major as well as secondary markets as seen below.
Missed our release of Investor Mania 2.0? Check out the summary:
3
10
14
CEO
@johnburnsjbrec
joined
@Markzandi
of
@MoodysAnalytics
to give a detailed U.S. housing market outlook.
They cover mortgage rates, the potential threat of a housing crash, and the affordable housing shortage.
Listen to the Inside Economics episode:
0
4
13
Where are we in the housing cycle today? See our analysis market by market:
2
8
14
“We’ve squeezed a decade of home price appreciation into a year and a half," said
@RickPalaciosJr
.
Expect home prices to flatten or drop over the next few years, especially in popular pandemic destinations like Boise.
By
@aarthiswami
+
@MarketWatch
0
1
14
"Inside the Mind of a Millennial | John Burns Real Estate Consulting"
http://t.co/t9xPnLLpdl
http://t.co/ydmGygBL61
0
14
13
Check out our newest podcast episode regarding the current Covid-19 crisis: John Burns and Dean Wehrli discuss some of our market conclusions to date and our best estimate of some of the changes we believe will occur.
0
4
9
It's true—5.5% mortgage rates seem to be the tipping point.
In fact, 71% of prospective home buyers who plan to purchase their next home with a mortgage say they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%.*
*Based on an
@_NHTI
survey of more than 1,300 homeowners and
0
1
12
How many homes do we really need? Can they be built?
Chief Demographer
@DemographChris
recently wrote the America’s Needed Housing Construction white paper to tackle these questions.
Check out our latest podcast for his findings and major takeaways:
0
7
11
Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
summarizes our December Home Builder Survey, highlighting extreme tightness in supply across basically every category and every region.
Check out the article by
@TheStalwart
here:
1
2
12
Earlier this month, Zillow quit the iBuying business.
JBREC's Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
and Knock CEO
@SeanBlack
weigh in on what they believe happens next.
Thank you for having us
@EK_Hudson
and
@trdny
!
1
0
11
Rents are set to fall in many areas around the country, which is exactly what the Fed needs to help get inflation under control
This short-term pain for rental investors should be offset by the long-term gain of a stable economy and lower borrowing rates
0
3
11
Earlier this month, our team attended the National Multifamily Housing Council’s annual apartment strategies conference in Las Vegas.
Here are six key takeaways from their meetings and sessions:
@ApartmentWire
0
4
10
Announcing our amazing lineup for The Summit on May 10-11 in Laguna Beach, CA.
Intimate, highly interactive, and thought provoking, The Summit helps executives take advantage of the opportunities in today’s market.
1
0
10
According to our Burns Single-Family Rental Index, single-family rents held up relatively well during the global financial crisis; in some markets they even grew.
0
1
10
At least we are bringing some facts to the single-family rental conversation.
CEO
@johnburnsjbrec
, CNBC's
@DianaOlick
, and others breakdown the rise of corporate landlords here:
1
5
10
74% of single-family landlords expect strong or very strong leasing activity over the next two quarters.
This is down from a high of 91% in 2021, but still above pre-pandemic sentiment.
(Burns Single-Family Rental Survey, 1Q2022)
By
@_willparker_
+
@WSJ
0
4
10
Rising borrowing costs have driven many investors, including fix and flippers, out of the market.
Our 2Q22 survey of fix-and-flip investors across the country revealed that 35% of flippers saw at least half of their deals fall through due to the rise in financing costs.
1
1
10
Sure, home-price appreciation will slow from 2021’s torrid pace. But
@RickPalaciosJr
says there are no signs on the ground of easing supply-chain issues or waning demand.
@LisaBeilfuss
shares our home price and rent growth forecasts for 2022 here:
1
1
9
"You could make a strong case that in a lot of housing markets the last 10% of home price appreciation was purely aspirational and irrational, and that'll come off the top really fast," said
@RickPalaciosJr
.
More from
@NewsLambert
+
@FortuneMagazine
:
0
2
9
The Fed raised rates by another 75 basis points last month, bringing the overnight lending rate to a range of 3 to 3.25%
CEO
@johnburnsjbrec
shares the impact of these rate hikes on housing and the economy.
Full podcast by
@realwealthnet
+
@kathyfettke
:
0
2
9
Home buyer cancellations in May jumped to 9.3%, up from 6.6% in May 2021.
"Builders state buyers are nervous about a potential recession or expecting home prices to decline,” said SVP Jody Kahn.
More from our Burns Home Builder Survey:
0
2
9
“Life with smartphones means we’re forever elsewhere”
@jean_twenge
emphasizes that creating community satisfies our need to reconnect with others in person.
Builders and developers should focus on larger homes, third spaces, and walkability to accommodate society’s new needs.
1
4
10
Home builders' biggest surprise of 2017? Cost increases:
1
5
8
What's shaping housing and the economy in 2023?
Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
spoke to
@mikesimonsen
of
@AltosResearch
on home builder sentiment, pricing forecasts, and how to spot changes in the market.
Listen to the Top of Mind podcast:
1
3
9
We would like to “crowdsource” the answer to a great question
@johnburnsjbrec
received while presenting with
@barryhabib
at the Strategic Investment Conference by
@mauldinecon
yesterday.
The question was: How much housing stock has been removed from supply with the rise of
0
2
9
In this clip from the Rental Communities Summit,
@Berkadia
Managing Director Joel Kirstein touches upon the overarching sentiment of the permanent debt markets. Lenders changed how they’re viewing the world in their scorecard in 2023 compared to 2022 with tighter underwriting
0
4
9
Find your market in the thread ⬇️
Home price trends across 20 top housing markets. Pace of price increases moderating (left chart), which you can see in our underlying home price index flattening out or actually falling in a few markets (right chart). Start it off with
#Atlanta
.
25
61
255
0
0
9
(1/3) Capital is flooding into single-family rentals for a host of great reasons:
• Worldwide bond yields are at historic lows, and investors need yield,
• Inflation is on the rise, and most investors view rental homes as an inflation hedge,
1
3
9
Surban: bringing the best of urban life to suburban areas. How will the rise in "Surban" living affect your business?
0
1
8
Director of Building Products
@EricFinnigan
on product shortages:
"Last summer, the big story was lumber. Over the winter, it was garage doors. Recently I heard a builder was told electrical transformers would be a 6 month wait"
By
@Nate_DiCamillo
+
@qz
:
1
3
8
Managing Principal and Director of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
joins
@ClaytonACollins
to discuss our latest Home Builder Survey, economic headwinds affecting buyers, and how the market is faring on the construction side.
Full podcast by
@HousingWire
here:
0
1
8
Homeowners are spending like crazy on remodeling. Spending is up 19%—6% due to inflation but the rest due to demand.
Bill Darcy (
@NKBA_CEO
) joins
@kgreifeld
+
@timsteno
on
@Quicktake
to discuss our 2022 kitchen + bath outlook.
Interview begins at 13:30.
1
4
8
Our team members from across the world shared 22 opportunities for 2022. Stay tuned as we share them here over the next three weeks.
1
1
8
We are thrilled to announce a new dashboard dedicated to monitoring and analyzing migration trends across the largest housing markets.
We encourage our clients to check out this new tool in their client portal.
To learn more about our Burns Interactive Dashboards and our
2
0
8
In the $426 billion repair and remodeling market, pro remodelers are driving almost all the growth right now—not the do-it-yourselfers (DIYers).
3
3
7
The supply of low-tier home listings is down 20% YOY in 31 of the largest housing markets as entry-level and move-down home buying surges:
1
3
7
“Builders are waiting longer in the construction phase to price the home and put it up for sale because of how volatile costs are,” said Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
.
Listen to the full interview with
@amyreports
and
@Marketplace
at the link below.
0
0
8
Welcome to the new era of John Burns Research and Consulting.
While our name is different and our brand refreshed, you can still expect the same trusted research and consulting services we have provided for over 20 years.
Learn more about our company evolution here:
0
0
8
Our clients continue to find strong renter and home buyer demand for newly built homes across the country, despite the economic distress caused by COVID-19. Here are the markets where we are consulting most frequently:
1
1
8
JBREC's Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
joins
@theindicator
to discuss housing construction's biggest shortage: skilled labor.
Thank you
@Darianwoods
and
@svaneksmith
for having us.
Listen to the 9 minute podcast here.
0
1
7
We asked builders + agents about how buyers reacted to 5%+ mortgage rates in May, given how similarly the new and resale housing markets are trending.
Both groups indicated that a small number of buyers cancelled; however, roughly 50% in both groups saw buyers halt home searches
2
3
7
Nearly every indicator in our Home Builder Survey worsened in June, with many metrics resembling levels last seen in the fall of 2018, when rates spiked to 5%.
Learn more about the survey here:
0
0
7
After four weeks of plunging new home sales, transactions have roughly doubled in the last two, with demand largely driven by 1980s Sharers (31–40-year-olds). Here’s what you need to know about these older millennial buyers during the pandemic:
2
3
6
The Fed’s plan—in the words of Chair Powell—to create a “housing reset” is working in more ways than many realize
Many have covered declining home sales due to higher mortgage rates.
@housing_alex
explains declines throughout other areas of housing⤵️
0
2
7
Where are we in the housing cycle? Here is our breakdown across 20 of the largest markets:
1
4
7
In a competitive housing market, consumers believe in the advantages of master-planned communities (MPCs)
95% of homeowners and single-family renters expect homes in MPCs to hold their value as well as, if not better than others in a market downturn.
Based on a survey by
@_NHTI
1
3
7
Real estate represents clients’ biggest, most important assets. Home prices are high, but now interest rates are, too.
CEO
@johnburnsjbrec
joins
@DianaOlick
of CNBC and Danielle Hale of Realtor .com to discuss the changing housing market.
Full interview:
0
1
6
Is social media hurting or helping new home sales? In this episode of our podcast
@willduder
, VP of Digital Marketing at
@mihomes
and a speaker at our upcoming Housing Design Summit, brings clarity to effective digital marketing strategies.
1
2
6
Instead of trading up into a bigger house across town, homeowners have been cashing out equity and updating, upgrading, & adding on to their current home.
Based on our US Remodeler Index in partnership with
@QualifiedRemod
.
1
1
7
We still hear two housing industry rules of thumb that make us cringe: 1) 5% is still a great mortgage rate, and 2) anything less than 6 months of supply is healthy.
@RickPalaciosJr
explains why these assumptions can get you into trouble:
0
3
7
We are aging faster than we think. The population over age 65 will grow 38%+/- over the next 10 years. Read more:
0
2
5
This housing market is behaving like no other, and new construction has become the only game in town.
Director of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
predicts the disparity will widen in coming months.
More from
@NicoleFriedman
and
@WSJ
:
0
0
6
2021 has been nothing short of record-breaking.
The Q1 Kitchen & Bath Market Index is no different, reaching a rating of 79.8. Demand is at an all-time high as vaccination rates increase and permanent WFH lifestyles encourage consumers to reconfigure home layouts.
@thenkba
0
2
5
Zillow’s exit shows ibuying is tough.
According to Head of Research
@RickPalaciosJr
, other ibuyers are still growing and their services are likely to become even more popular.
Read more from
@khouriandrew
and
@latimes
:
1
1
6
We identified 43 announcements totaling more than $30 billion in capital that are targeting US rental housing.
Since some of this is only the equity investment and excludes the debt, and we know of far more than this that is not public info, the real number is much higher.
1
1
6
The Build-to-Rent business is BOOMING! Here's clip from
@johnburnsjbrec
's feature on
@NBCNews
with
@DianaOlick
and Bruce McNeilage.
Watch the full segment here:
#JBREC
#BTR
#housingmarket
0
1
6
Single-family rental and build-for-rent shows no signs of slowing, with investors throwing billions of dollars into the sector in just the last year. Our latest analysis from
@daniellevnguyen
highlights some of the largest deals from the past year:
0
3
6
Introducing the first episode of our New Home Insights podcast! Dean Wehrli speaks with CEO John Burns on today’s market, our forecast, and housing strategies. Listen to the inside scoop:
0
1
5
Can ADUs help ‘fix’ housing affordability?
More on this in our latest podcast episode:
FHA has proposed allowing rental income from an accessory dwelling unit to be used for determining borrower income for forward mortgages as well as HECMs. Comments on the proposal are due April 27.
0
4
17
0
0
5
Our updated analysis of U-Haul rental rates between cities gives us insight into migration patterns. These are the markets people are leaving and moving to:
0
2
5
NEW FOR JBREC CLIENTS: Demographics Clarity for Housing Executives
Watch the short video for a sneak peek, including three surprising demographic shifts already impacting your business today.
Learn how to become a research member:
3
1
6
Our Creative Marketing panel presented on the importance of maximizing marketing ROI by using new tools to identify potential buyers
@Warmingtongroup
@TheNewHomeCo
@mihomes
@willduder
@kbyule
0
2
6
Home builders have been ramping up their land holdings, and doing so in a way that protects them in the event of a downturn.
The chart below is sorted by builder ownership and stacked from most, D.R. Horton (DHI), at the bottom to least, Landsea Homes (LSEA), at the top.
1
2
6
A majority of respondents — 71% — said they are not willing to accept a mortgage rate above 5.5%. Meanwhile, 62% of consumers believe a historically normal mortgage rate is below 5.5%.
“Our consulting team has witnessed this across the country, noting that home builders who
0
2
5
We've identified the Top 50 Master-Planned Communities, but what makes them so special?
Over the next few weeks, we'll share commentary from our consultants about these master plans from across the country. Follow the thread below.
1
0
5
Here are some standout Build-to-Rent (BTR) product and amenity trends:
1) Work from home is driving rental home demand.
2) Flex the square footage and lot size by location.
3) 1–2 apartment-like amenities is plenty.
4) Get ahead on technology.
1
1
5
"Proximity to work and family/friends are top influences in moving decisions," said Maegan Sherlock at last month's Rental Communities Summit. "Young tenants are heavily influenced by proximity to work, whereas Mature Families are influenced by the desired school district. Mature
0
0
5
Purchasing a new home in a master-planned community (MPC) = higher monthly costs compared to buying a similar home outside an MPC
Despite the premium, new home sales in the Top 50 MPCs show greater resilience to + recovery from market corrections than the overall new home market
1
0
4
In this week’s edition of The Light newsletter, we focus on the positive and how understanding current conditions can provide strategic insight into consumer preferences when the recovery begins. Here are 5 key consumer shifts to understand:
0
2
5
Thank you to all those at
@PCBC_TheShow
who attended the Infill Insights panel, which was moderated by our very own Pete Reeb!
0
0
5
@orchardhomesco
is providing next-level service by integrating almost the entire home buying process onto one platform.
Find our full podcast featuring Co-Founder and CEO Court Cunningham here:
0
3
5
Stay-at-home orders first generated a jump in DIY projects and are now resulting in a surge in new home purchases and remodeling projects involving contractors. Our latest survey results reveal some opportunities:
0
1
5