Ben Casselman
@bencasselman
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Econ/business reporter @nytimes . Formerly @fivethirtyeight @WSJ . Adjunct @newmarkjschool . He/him ben.casselman @nytimes .com Photo: Earl Wilson/NY
Joined September 2008
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Five are European. The other is England.
Six teams left in the World Cup. All of them are European.
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Unnamed
@FiveThirtyEight
staffer upon returning from a two-week overseas vacation: "quick question, who is Anthony Scaramucci?"
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So voters want a higher minimum wage, legal pot, abortion access and GOP representation. Ok then.
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This isn't remotely how Venn diagrams work.
Dear Congress,
Let's get this done.
Thanks,
The vast majority of Americans
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An important reminder about today's jobless claims figures: As bad as they will be (and they will be catastrophically bad), they will NOT reflect the full scope of the problem. The true number of lost jobs is significantly higher.
Three main reasons (thread):
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So
@jimtankersley
talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes
@NateSilver538
$538.
I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial.
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Democrats want to tax the rich. Voters -- including a significant number of Republicans -- are largely cheering them on.
With
@jimtankersley
Data from
@SurveyMonkey
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One of my goals this year was to be more aware of the diversity (or lack thereof) of my source list. To that end, I've been tracking (as best I can) the gender and race of everyone I quote in my stories.
In the interest of accountability, some stats:
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"We aren't rich! Look how little we have left over after we spend all our money on rich-people stuff."
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“You’re not under any obligation to wait for us.”
@NateSilver538
, live on air, telling us he’s seen enough.
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“Will you hike if yields rise?”
“We will not hike if yields rise.
We will not catch you by surprise.
We will not hike on Phillips Curve.
We will not hike if prices swerve.
Not when inflation gets to 2,
Not when U3 hits NAIRU.
Do not ask me any more!
Full employment, not before!”
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Churchill: "We shall fight them on the beaches..."
Trump: "WHY ARE YOU GIVING AWAY OUR STRATEGY???"
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"Read the article."
"I didn't write the headline."
"That's really not what my story was about."
Today, Bob Mueller is all of us.
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This has got to be one of the greatest corrections of all time.
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::Two weeks later::
"Who knew tax reform could be so complicated?"
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So much for "nobody wants to work anymore": 80.7% of prime-age (25-54) Americans were working in March, the highest rate since May 2001.
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Trump: If Hillary didn't want me to avoid taxes, she should have closed the loophole.
Clinton: I literally did that.
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13-year-old is currently doing an impression of adults at cocktail parties:
“Inflation, am I right?”
“Can you believe gas prices?”
“And taxes!”
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Honestly, at first glance I have no idea what to make of the jobs report. Not just that it was weak, but the particular way it was weak, is perplexing. So come with me as I try to work through it the only way I know how -- with charts!
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Given the renewed attention on the possibility of a $15 federal minimum wage, it's worth noting that "$15/hour" looks very different in 2021 than it did when the "Fight for $15" movement began in 2012. (Thread)
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#SolarEclipse2017
made ppl:
a) go outside in middle of workday
b) interact w/ strangers
c) share things w each other
So actually kinda great
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WOW: U.S. employers added a whopping 517,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.
Data:
Full coverage:
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I don't love the term "Great Resignation," but at least people really were, you know, resigning (albeit usually to take other jobs). "Quiet Quitting" is just not an accurate description of the phenomenon it purports to describe.
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Spent all night trying to think of who Marianne Williamson's voice reminds me of. My wife just figured it out:
@evilhag
as Burt Macklin's girlfriend on Parks & Rec.
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This is just breathtakingly irresponsible.
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For one thing, a lot of people don't qualify for unemployment benefits. Self-employed, gig workers, independent contracts don't qualify. Nor do many part-timers, recent hires or very low earners. (The Senate bill would change some of that, temporarily.)
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The $600 supplement to unemployment benefits has allowed laid-off workers to pay rent and buy groceries, and has helped prop up the broader economy.
Now we are mere days away from it expiring -- even as economic conditions are deteriorating once again.
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Trump wants to deport 2-3mm undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Problem: There are less than 1mm of them.
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In 2004, I cheered for
@gehrig38
until I had tears in my eyes. Today he joked about lynching my peers and colleagues.
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So far, the "Great Resignation" is mostly a blue-collar phenomenon -- job-to-job transitions for non-college grads are soaring. For college grads, they're just returning to pre-Covid levels.
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How strong has this recovery been? G.D.P. is now above where the CBO expected *before* the pandemic struck. And yes, that's adjusted for inflation.
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If Daylight Saving Time wants to improve its branding, it should really have us spring forward at like 4 p.m. on a Monday instead.
"Wait, why is everyone going home already? Oh right, Daylight Saving starts today!!!"
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Second, a lot of people who *do* qualify don't know it. I've heard people saying things like "I got furloughed not laid off so I can't get benefits." Many of those people almost certainly do qualify, but have gotten bad info (or in some cases been misled by employers).
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Trump and his supporters often blame the struggling economy on blue-state restrictions on business activity.
But a look at Iowa shows how even in a state that never locked down, the economy is nowhere close to normal.
With
@jimtankersley
:
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“Print is dead,” they say, until people line up around the block for a copy of this powerful project.
Congratulations to
@nhannahjones
and everyone who made this happen.
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Yes, that's right: Consumer prices *fell* (slightly) in July, per the PCE price index.
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Honestly jealous of all the people about to discover "A Wrinkle in Time."
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Why does the U.S. have one of the lowest rates of breastfeeding in the industrialized world? Maybe it’s because we expect new moms to go back to work almost immediately, then force them literally to smuggle breast pumps past security to pump at work.
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We romanticize manufacturing jobs when what we really miss are unions.
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Third, the sudden flood of claims has overwhelmed state UI systems. There are tons of reports of jammed phone lines, overloaded servers and claimants who aren't able to file (I've spoken to several myself). Others may have heard those stories and decided not to bother trying.
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Economics is overwhelmingly white, and has a reputation for being dismissive of (if not openly hostile to) Black economists. Now they say that has left the field ill equipped for a moment when racism is at the center of the policy debate.
@jimtankersley
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Unemployment benefits and other government aid programs have been a vital lifeline for millions of displaced workers during this crisis.
If Congress doesn't act soon, that lifeline could snap.
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As some of you know, I recently had a (non-COVID) health scare, which left me hospitalized for several days. I'm on the mend now, thanks to some excellent medical care, but if you'll forgive the digression from my usual econ tweeting, I wanted to share a few quick thoughts.
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Once more, with feeling: The jobs numbers were. not. rigged.
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Interestingly, my sources were significantly more diverse in stories that weren't written on deadline. That suggests that I'm doing a good job searching out sources when I have time, but that under deadline pressure, I fall back on a core group of white guys.
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All of which means we should think of today's claims number as a lower bound for the number of people who lost jobs last week. And of course today's numbers won't tell us anything about people who lost jobs *this* week.
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If anyone ever asks you why your choice of y-axis scale matters...
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U.S. employers added or brought back 1.8 million jobs in July, down from 4.8 million in June. For perspective, we're still down 12.9 million since February.
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This whole Brett Favre story is a great example of why we need strong local news outlets. Subscribe to your local paper!
THREAD: In July 2017, Brett Favre met with Mississippi DHS Director John Davis and non-profit operator Nancy New.
They would help him get millions in welfare funds to pay for a volleyball stadium at USM—where his daughter was about to play volleyball. 1/
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I'm still seeing a LOT of discussion on here about the "error" in yesterday's jobs numbers.
Here are the two key points:
1. The unemployment rate would have fallen *regardless* of the classification issue;
2. The unemployment rate is still shockingly high by any measure.
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Groundskeeper?
BREAKING: The White House is reportedly weighing a new role for Press Sec. Sean Spicer
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Can eSports ever be a "real" sport? Wrong question. In terms of audience, it already is.
http://t.co/gHK9KxuSto
http://t.co/ifnvBHW5Zz
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One problem for the GOP health bill: Public support is weak even in very red districts.
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U.S. employers added 528k jobs in July, far more than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, matching its prepandemic level (a 50-year low).
Data:
Full coverage:
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FILL IN THE BLANK: A pod of whales. A murder of crows. A __________ of economists.
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Two hours after polls are meant to open in
#Brooklyn
and our polling place isn't ready.
#NYPrimary
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Obama inherited an economy that was hemorrhaging jobs. He leaves behind a job market that is fundamentally healthy.
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The $600/week unemployment supplement helped jobless workers build up some savings, which helped sustain them — and the economy — when the supplement ended. But now those savings are running out.
Good data here from
@emilymbadger
@qdbui
@p_ganong
.
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Seems worth highlighting that grocery prices are DOWN over the past three months, and are up just 1% over the past year.
One thing I hear from consumers is that they aren't feeling the drop in inflation because prices are still rising for the basic items they have to buy often.
Well, grocery prices were flat in May (+1% y/y). Clothing prices were down (+0.8% y/y). So were gas prices (+2.2% y/y).
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Most Americans -- regardless of income -- got a tax cut last year. Yet most Americans don't believe it.
@jimtankersley
and I explore why.
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Honestly, drunk Susan Orlean is the best thing to happen in this garbage year and I appreciate her for bringing us all together tonight.
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Economist Patrick Anderson, who opposed the 2008 bailouts: “This is different. It’s not a bailout if you, the government, tell a business to close, and then they ask you to help cover payroll while they’re closed. That’s not a bailout — you told them to close.”
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The GOP's real target isn't Obamacare. It's Medicaid. And it has been for decades.
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This is a very cool new interactive from
@FiveThirtyEight
. It lets you see how the odds change depending on who wins specific states.
So if Trump wins PA, he has a 73% probability of winning the election, but just 3% if he loses it.
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Couple particularly striking things in this poll: A slim majority of *Republicans* support
@SenWarren
’s idea for a wealth tax in the richest Americans.
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In fact, it's possible there's NO district where more ppl strongly support the health bill than strongly oppose it.
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We'll get a fuller picture eventually in the monthly jobs report, but not until May -- the data in next week's jobs report was collected two weeks ago, before the worst of the layoffs.
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The obvious answer is "supply," but I feel you can all do better.
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In case you're keeping track,
#Ferguson
PD has now:
- Blocked aerial coverage;
- Refused to release name of officer;
- Arrested reporters.
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Layoffs are rising again and Americans’ incomes are falling, the latest signs that the one-two punch of a resurgent pandemic and waning government aid are undermining the U.S. economic recovery.
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The $600 a week in extra unemployment benefits ran out in July. Congress and the president can’t agree on how to replace them.
For many Americans, it may already be too late to prevent lasting financial harm.
With
@gillianreporter
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6th grader: “Why do we have to learn about the Great Depression?”
Me: “Because it was a period of great hardship for millions of people, and it taught us lessons about how to avoid ever letting it happen ag... uh, because your teacher said so.”
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For several weeks, real-time data has suggested that the U.S. economic recovery could be stalling.
Now there is evidence it could be going in reverse.
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Second, I'm started doing this because I believed it would improve my journalism. A year in, I'm even more convinced of that.
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Biden’s econ team “is unified by a commitment to running the economy hot — with strong growth and low unemployment — in order to drive up wages.” Via
@arappeport
@jimtankersley
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Something that came up repeatedly in interviews for this story: The extra $600 in UI benefits is REALLY helping workers. There's been (appropriately) lots of attention on the system's failures. But for ppl able to get the help, it's made a huge difference.
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"No one wants to work anymore" update: 80.9% of Americans ages 25-54 were employed in June. That's the highest since April 2001.
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How bad will unemployment claims be next week? Shockingly, shockingly bad.
We're already at 600k+ based on data from just 15 states, per
@JustinWolfers
&
@qdbui
. (Today's *nation-wide* data showed 281k initial claims last week.)
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Another 1.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. That's 832k under regular state programs (not seasonally adjusted) and another 489k under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program.
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Donald Trump lost more than $1 billion from 1985 to 1994 -- more than nearly any other individual American taxpayer.
Another huge scoop from
@russbuettner
&
@susannecraig
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"Bitcoin isn't a bubble because people said it was a bubble at $10k and now it's nearly $18k" is ... not a sound argument.
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The economics profession is finally facing up to a longstanding problem: widespread harassment, discrimination and bullying against women, people of color and members of the LGBTQ community.
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Republicans' optimism about the economy absolutely plunged after the election -- it fell even more than when the pandemic hit last spring.
Me and
@jimtankersley
, with data from
@SurveyMonkey
:
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One last note: Besides family and friends, nothing did more to help me get through this than art. In particular, this gorgeous Amy Sherald portrait, which I could see out my hospital window. (Is it strange to say I came to think of this young woman as a friend?)
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Surveys show most Americans don't believe they got a tax cut under the 2017 tax law. But most of them did (and hardly anyone paid more under the law).
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Bill Spriggs spent four decades trying to root out racial injustice in society and in his own profession. He was, as
@SandyDarity
put it, "deeply committed to the idea that we do economics because we have a social purpose."
My obituary:
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First white people move into a neighborhood. Then they start calling the cops.
Brilliant use of data by
@lamthuyvo
.
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The worst news in this report: The number of people reporting they have lost their jobs permanently (as opposed to being on temporary layoff/furlough) rose again. Evidence of mounting long-run damage to the economy.
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All together now: Most. Students. Don't. Go. To. Oberlin. (Or to schools remotely like it.)
If students inhabit liberal bubbles, they don't learn about their country, writes
@NickKristof
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U.S. economic output fell 9.5% in the second quarter, by far the largest drop in the 70+ years of data. For context: Economic output fell 4% during the entirety of the Great Recession -- and took 18 months to get there.
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Trump says Obamacare is in a "death spiral." His own administration's data says that isn't true.
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Literally just found a dollar bill in the street outside the NY Fed. This shakes my confidence in economics like nothing since the crash.
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Imagine if
@Fahrenthold
reaches one charity today and they're like, "Trump? Oh yeah, he's been giving us $5 mil a year for the past decade."
Just passed 450 charities on my search for proof that
@realDonaldTrump
really does give away millions. One last day..
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