Gabriel Tamez
@deusexdividend
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Value Investor | Work is a prerequisite for opinions
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Debuting the quick pitch format covering Vimeo $VMEO
• Priced at 1.1x EV/Sales
• Forward 9x EV/EBITDA multiple
• Potential acquisition target
• Inflecting business fundamentals
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@tonyzentelis
The ultimate flex is boarding a plane with just a newspaper and wearing a Tommy Bahama shirt.
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My girlfriend's dad is a doctor and has a good part of his retirement with a wealth manager in Florida. I looked at his holdings today:
17 different fixed income and equity mutual funds w/ avg. expense ratio of 1.7%
Some w/ entry fees as high as 5%
This shit drives me nuts.
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@ShooterMcGavin_
Aired in 2002. Nobody getting offended. Gen X really is the best generation.
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My best investments have usually followed this pattern:
1. You do the work on a stock but it's too expensive so you pass
2. The stock eventually gets cheap so you buy. You've done the work before so you feel confident
3. The stock gets even cheaper. You average down
4. The stock
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Why is the Lex Friedman podcast popular? The guy's voice is off-putting. His interviewing skills and conversation flow are terrible. And his podcast has very low production value. I really struggle to figure out who his target audience is.
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My toxic trait is that I buy value without a catalyst.
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Guys on fintweet doing 5,000 word deep dives on megacaps. I just don’t get it.
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Will be promptly switching him into ETFs at a low cost brokerage. So easy for good, hardworking people to be taken advantage of.
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$GOOG sub 20x PE. Are we really doing this again?
That's $20bn cash savings. People will still download google and set it as a default. It takes like 2 mins.
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Leads with "You gotta turn over a lot of rocks in this biz!"
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A few years ago I met this guy living in Tulum/Playa del Carmen that was essentially running a bachelor party travel agency by himself.
He did all the planning from lodging, car service, restaurant and nightclub reservations, yacht rental, etc.
But his main value add...
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Value Investors Club comment section on a small cap down 50% YTD.
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Does anyone else wake up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night thinking they could've just owned $AAPL and done 25% CAGR for the past decade? Instead of spending coutless hours analyzing shitcos? Yeah me neither, me neither.
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He was crushing it for a few years, especially as Tulum really started to boom a decade ago. Unfortunately last I heard of him it seems like the constant partying took its toll and he shut the whole thing down. But that guy was a solid entrepreneur.
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Added a full position in Seneca Foods $SENEA, a consumer packaged goods company HQ'd in upstate NY. Down 47% YTD on no apparent news other than S&P600 deletion (AFAIK).
Currently trading at adj. 3.25X EBITDA and 0.35x BV. Seneca has averaged 10-15% ROE for the past few decades.
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My girlfriend and I both have Mexican citizenship. I was born in Canada and granted her Canadian residency. She has Spanish citizenship too so she could grant me European residency. I'd still trade all 3 for American citizenship. Americans who forfeit US passports are insane.
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He did all word of mouth marketing and did bachelor parties all along the Mayan riviera. He was such a showman too. He'd occasionally party with you and drop lines like "I don't see you guys as clients, you guys are truly my squad".
Probably said this to every friend group lol.
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@thecaptain_nemo
Jaime Maussan. A Mexican legend who’s been talking UFOs for 40 plus years lol. What a time to be alive.
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He did both bachelor and bachelorette parties so he would always set up your group next to a group of girls, or viceversa at clubs. He was a master in making sure you had everything you needed. You'd get into your airbnb and he would have the fridge stocked with food & alcohol.
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This is the moment we've been waiting for friends. The bottom is finally in for Manhattan prime office $VNO $SLG
Manhattan office vacancies the cover story for the next issue of New York magazine
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Sir, they’ve moved on from Poland and Japan. Now they’re buying locally listed Brazilian shitcos.
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Alright i'm officially hooked on Canadian microcaps. Turns out buying sub 4x PE is a good strategy outside of energy and basic materials (sorry commodity bros). At some point i'm going to have to weigh this CAD FX risk though. Weak denomination.
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I've been using an AI trading assistant. This tech is getting way too good.
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@sairarahman
“A small line of credit that we used to drive incremental returns during ZIRP quickly ballooned as some of the assets we used to collateralize it saw up to a 70% reduction in price.”
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I fear not the man who has read ten-thousand 10Ks.
But I fear the man who has read the same 10K ten-thousand times.
- Warren Buffett (probably)
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I've been seeing some smart accounts on fintwit take bearish positions on junk food companies because of weight loss drugs like Ozempic. I couldn't disagree more with this thesis. And that's what makes a market I guess.
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I swear every time you post an idea on a non-US name you get a reply-guy in the comments saying something about "FX risk". That's their sole contribution. Incapable of producing an original thought.
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The lesson here isn’t that VCs know very little about finance. The real lesson is that you can still achieve a lot in the business world while knowing very little about certain topics.
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Do you know what a "LAN party" is?
Probably not, because my buddies and I invented it in the mid-2000's after we weren't invited to prom.
Everyone brings their PC and we don't talk.
We crush pizza, doritos and mountain dew and play Age of Empires and Counterstrike. That's it!
Do you know what a "bottle night" is?
Probably not, because my gf and I invented it during a 2023 blizzard in Buffalo, NY.
We lock our phones away, turn the TV off...
Each grab a bottle of wine, and talk.
That's it, we simply talk and enjoy each other's presence.
We live
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@villi
Wow. This is the exact reason why many people in finance dislike VC. Taking money from clients in any capacity puts you in a fiduciary position. Yes you're shooting for moonshots but you're still a steward of other people's money. Also, outside of top quartile, your returns blow.
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Tree Island Steel $TSL.TO is probably one of the cheapest companies I own. Trades at 2x EV/FCF with no debt. It's a tiny company in British Columbia w/ operations in the US. An $80m EV and paying a 5.8% dividend. I don't get the valuation.
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I don't know why people think $5M is not enough to retire. Just dump it all on $META at 0.4% div yield. $20k income / $1,667 per month:
Rent - 800
Food - 400
Phone- 50
Netflix/Dis/HBO - 60
4 Zyn Cans - 24
Taxes - 333
Total: $1,667
It's so simple guys. You just need the vision
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When to buy EM stocks:
- Peak pessimism/fear
- Left-wing president gets elected
- Government talks about nationalizing key industries
- Department of State issues a travel ban
When to sell EM stocks
- Peak optimism/hype
- Strong narratives emerge: near-shoring, leapfrogging,
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The nice thing about buying a beaten down large/mega cap is that you can quickly make it a large holding and it’s relatively easier to develop conviction vs. an obscure microcap. Ex: buying $META last fall. What are your favorite “hiding in plain sight” ideas at the moment?
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@TikTokInvestors
My deposits: $69
My credit card debt: -$42,000
If banks go under I actually make a profit here. Your move JP Morgan Chase.
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@ClarkSquareCap
Bloomberg terminal, Factset, CapIQ, Bamsec, alt-data. Underperforms the index each year by 2%
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Lots of chatter around Mexico today so I've decided to write up Farmacias Guadalajara $FRAGUA, the best risk/return consumer staple name in Mexico. Trading at 7.5x EV/FCF with a long growth runway. Link to writeup below. Pushback welcome.
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New fintwit darling just dropped. Get it while it's hot $CROX
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A common investment arc:
1. Begin with a partial awareness that there are systems for investing
2. Decide there's a quicker path to wealth
3. Take on extreme market risk + focus on cutting edge companies
4. Stage of hubris -> "the game has changed" or "I possess a real edge"
5.
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I'm starting a $VNO bagholder support group. Next meeting will be in one of the many foreclosed office properties in Manhattan. We can just meet in the lobby and find an empty conference room and order pizza. It'll be great
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Value investor bag-holder support group after lagging SPY/QQQ for a 5th straight year.
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@nntaleb
The jig is up Nassim. We all know you're the weightlifter turned cyclist. It's alright
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Swedish investor relations departments are the best in the game. They've managed to convince investors that every Swedish company is a "quality compounder". I've yet to find a cheap company there. I respect the hustle but it's a hard pass for me dawg.
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@ErnestWongBWM
Getting rich and staying rich are two very different skill sets. This man is the real deal.
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@mr_skilling
Before joining any group always ask yourself, is this an investment community or a bag holder support group?
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18 holdings as of 3Q23, alphabetical. Up +29% YTD.
$ASO
$ATZ.TO
$GOOGL
$GRMN
$IFOS.V
$LEAT
$MEDICAB.MX
$MEGACPO.MX
$META
$NATH
$OMAB
$RET.A
$SENEA
$SFL.MI
$VSTO
$WSM
**Microcap
**Undisclosed
CASH ~ 20%
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@vanckzhu
These are my top 3 at the moment:
$SXP.TO - Packaging solutions/envelopes. Serial acquirer.
$RET.A - Women's apparel retailer. Emerged from reorg w/ clean balance sheet.
$BLM.V - Profitable environmental consulting w/ recurring military and govt contracts in place.
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@TrackInflation
The only true part about this story is the divorce. But It will probably be the wife serving him.
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I see too many investors labeling themselves as a particular style and then building portfolios entirely around it. That's why I like Lynch the best. Nothing wrong with buying some growth, GARP, value, deep value, cyclical, etc. I'd rather limit myself by a circle of competence.
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@RobertMSterling
If you are over 30 and still using Excel you've done something very wrong. You shouldn't even own a laptop anymore. Just an Ipad and PDF reader so you can circle mistakes in red and make notes like "use more aggresive discount rate" or "plz make font bigger".
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A lot of the CRE accounts I follow on X were all extremely bearish on office up until very recently. But a lot of us tourists have done well buying office REITs this year. This is by no means a victory lap but I think there's a few lessons here. Mainly: (1) being a tourist can be
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80-story office skyscraper in NYC -> It's a zero dude.
Top 10 US bank by deposits -> Insolvent man.
Fiber network that cost hundreds of billions to build and carries all your data -> Negative terminal value bro.
This is the new economy.
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"So this new drug called Ozempic basically kills all your cravings. And me and my friends decided to short $MCD and $KO because skinny people don't eat junk food. Btw have you ever read Principles by Ray Dalio? He's the founder of Bridgewater, this super secretive hedge fund."
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I'm currently cycling through 3 different books. This is my current finance book. One of the most boring investing books I've read and thinking about putting it down. Should I power through?
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@PythiaR
1. Guy has probably only worked at big tech and doesn't know how inefficient most of corporate America is.
2. Incredibly bullish from a cost reduction view. Google likely has the most fat left to trim out of Mag 7.
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Taylor Swift arguably has the worst music relative to how famous she is. No doubt she can sing/perform but her music is objectively bad compared to the likes of Elvis, MJ, Madonna, Beatles, etc. Kids like her because they have no taste. Parents like her because she's vanilla.
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My portfolio right now is comprised of 2-3 high quality companies. And then the other dozen positions are straight from the island of misfit toys. It would probably give your avg financial planner a mini heart attack. Time will tell.
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You were buying a company that makes foot fungus cream. I was buying a company that makes bum bum cream. We are not the same $973.HK
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I've built a small position in Medica Sur $MEDICA, a single-hospital operator in Mexico City trading at 5.5x EV/EBITDA. Company has been using a large part of retained earnings to buyback shares and pay very large dividends.
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@DPalmer2013
That's a rich man's portfolio. Not a grow rich portfolio. But arguably 10x better than what I had at that age.
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A few shots from Japan. Food is on another level. The kindness of the people unmatched. So much beauty. This is very quickly becoming one of my favorite travel destinations. I don’t think I’ll cover enough in 10 days.
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Compounder bros getting triggered by Mohnish becoming a coal bro is a great narrative. I fully support!
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Idea for a reality tv show. 12 people with different backgrounds (not necessarily finance) all trading in a big house. You give them $50k each in starting capital and provide food, booze, entertainment. Whoever makes the most money in 6-8 weeks wins. Debauchery and drama ensues.
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The theme in Mexican equity markets continues to be deslistings and consolidation. A quick recap of what's been happening over the past few weeks and how the investable universe is getting even smaller. 1/8
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I love how all the compounder bros quietly bailed on the discount general store concept. It was the same group of people biding up these stocks to 25x PE.
Also funny that $PDD became the short thesis for $DG $DLTR. I think these are a long now.
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@nikitabier
This is essentially what the Catholic church did when it prohibited priests from marrying. It was so the church would be entitled to all property & assets. Not very sustainable and has had a ton of unintended consequences.
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I don’t regret going long office REITs. I just regret telling friends and family I bought some.
Now I get an endless barrage of WSJ, NYT, FT headlines about impending CRE doom and how people will never return to an office ever again.
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Firmly believe you can’t read your way into an investment style. Need to live and experience it firsthand. I lean towards value and concentration. But I’ll routinely feel compelled to buy higher quality companies and to diversify. Holding contradictory ideas is part of the game.
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Top 4 positions into Q2:
$META
$RET.A
$VNO
$IFOS.V / $MBCF
Very strong start to the year. I trimmed Meta but still my largest position. Top 4 make up 55% of my port so somewhat concentrated here.
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