Andy Ellis
@csoandy
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Jew. Partner, @YLVentures. Author, 1% Leadership. Hall of Fame CSO, Board Director, Investor, Leadership Coach. USAF veteran. 🎗️🤟🏼
Boston/Tel Aviv
Joined February 2009
We often tell stories from the point of view of the hero. But heroes don't notice everything; examining a story from the point of view of the villain can be informative. Let's look at Harry Potter. 1/20
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@realajedelman That a big aside. Plus, if they’d kept the Temple Mount, they could’ve handed control of it to a committee of the religious right, but required unanimity to do anything, and crippled the haredi as a political party forever. But, yeah, second worst mistake.
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@deadbeatsred @lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ Thanks! I like it for an “easy to fit in one tweet” solution that checks for overcomplication vs understanding weird logic maths.
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@Devon_Eriksen_ @lithologuy Oh, it’s not, but my experience is that understanding all the Monty Hall variants is pretty closely correlated with understanding Bayes’ Theorem.
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@deadbeatsred @lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ You could do it that way, or just give each space a number (0..63), and XOR the heads. Each board uniquely points at one space; XOR the devil’s space with that pointer, and flip the result. New board points at the devil’s space.
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@lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ Ah, in flight wifi over the Atlantic! You can shout all you want, but your partner might only hear the Devil. He’s a good mimic!
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I’ll leave you a related puzzle, as my plane is about to take off: the devil traps you and a friend in Hell. He offers you freedom if you can beat him at Devils Checkers; if you fail, he will feed your soul to the SPSFC. You and your friend may strategize, but the game will be played like this. One of you walks into a room with a chessboard, each of the 64 squares has a penny on it, arbitrarily set to heads or tails (maybe it’s random, maybe Satan is a jerk). The devil will point at one penny. The first person will point at any penny they want, and the devil will turn it over. The first person leaves the room through a different door. The second person enters the room, and must guess which coin the devil pointed at. What is the best strategy to survive?
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@lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ What is implied but never made explicit is that the host *must* reveal a door. If you alter that constraint, the whole system is wacky.
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@lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ Oh, your interpretation is fine, I’m just nitpicking on the wording, because the English language barely begins to be useful in discussing these tenses.
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@lithologuy Nitpick: it’s really “the probability that a guess that the door has a car is correct is 2/3,” and this is where brains break.
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@lithologuy @Devon_Eriksen_ The real challenge is that most people confuse the probability of an outcome with the probability of a correct guess about the outcome.
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I’m just going to assume Kanye is the new spokesman for the Mass Teachers Association.
The Massachusetts Teachers Association teaches children to hate Jews. The MTA generated a document titled “Resources on Israel and Occupied Palestine” and made it available to MTA members in late 2024. The union represents 117,000 teachers, faculty, professional staff, and education support professionals in Massachusetts. Consider the following exchange between @RepSimonCataldo and the MTA president. Rep. Cataldo: “You’d agree that this is antisemitic imagery, correct?” MTA president: “I’m not gonna evaluate that.” Rep. Cataldo: “It’s a dollar bill folded up in the Star of David. Is it antisemitic?” MTA president: … Rep. Cataldo: “I think you nodded your head yes.” MTA president: “I know you’d like to— I understand the back and forth, which is you’re trying to get away from the central point, which is that we provide imagery, we provide resources for our members to consider, in their own intelligent, professional way.” Rep. Cataldo: “And it’s antisemitic.” There are 26 more exhibits like this. No wonder so many students harbor antisemitic beliefs by the time they reach college.
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