David Paton
@cricketwyvern
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Professor of Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School. (views expressed are my own)
Joined August 2009
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Two weeks ago the 7-day average number of reported deaths was 342, today it is 238, a decrease of 30%. It is progress even if not as fast as we all would like to see.
@ProfKarolSikora
is reporting the facts fairly and accurately
@piersmorgan
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Is there a single Cabinet Minister with the integrity to say enough is enough?
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It is hard to overstate what a catastrophic failure the Govt & SAGE’s policy of continual restrictions & lockdown has been.
Not only has it caused economic devastation & misery for millions, it has not stopped high rates & surges in infections, hospitalisations & deaths.
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Seems like sanity has prevailed in Germany. Good news!
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Calmly and rationally, consultant Steve James explains to
@sajidjavid
why the Government's plan to sack him and his colleague (along with thousands of of other nurses and doctors) in April does not make the slightest sense.
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Thousands of care home workers who worked tirelessly throughout the pandemic are now being sacked because they have judged that a particular healthcare intervention is not right for them.
It's a shameful day for our nation.
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The
@Channel4
@reformparty_uk
racism row is developing into an astonishing story. Whether or not Ch 4 paid Andrew Parker, hard to see how they can come out unscathed.
As I see it, there are 4 possibilities:
1.
@Channel4
set up & paid Parker. They are explicit they did not.
...
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The Spanish pre-print study on facemasks in School has now been published in peer-reviewed BMJ Archives Diseases in Childhood. Conclusion:
"We found no significant differences in SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to face-covering mask mandates in schools."
...
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The latest
@UKHSA
Vaccine Surveillance report now reports that the vaccinated are testing positive at a higher rate than the unvaccinated for every age group from 30-39 up ...
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Often it is the hypocrisy that finally wakes people up to what is going on.
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Fantastic to see a full stadium in Hungary: no masks though compulsory testing.
Florida & Texas have shown it can be done with no masks & no compulsory tests or vaccine passports.
The UK are still pussyfooting around with occasional pilot events.
When will
@BorisJohnson
catch up?
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In Manchester,
@BorisJohnson
says the situation is worsening with every passing day.
Am I going mad or is he?
As of 11 Oct, ave positive tests decreased for 8 days in a row, & 19% lower than on 3rd Oct.
In all of GM, new positive tests are flat.
@AndyBurnhamGM
Update to various Covid-19 indicators.
Deaths, hospitalisations carry on up, though daily admissions down on latest day & no change to daily ICU.
Positive tests steady again at 11 Oct. To be precise, 0.4% down: 1st decrease for a while.
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Can you spot which one of the 4 UK nations got rid of their mask mandate on the 19th July?
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A lot of Covid-19 policy around the world (no longer in the UK thank goodness) continues to be predicated on the basis that unvaccinated people are more likely to have Covid than those vaccinated. All the evidence we have currently suggests that is not the case.
…
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Two things annoy me a little in the school debate. First, well-intentioned comments like "schools should be last to close & first to open".
We never debate when supermarkets should close. It is just accepted that they are essential & must stay open. So it should be with schools.
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This morning on
@BBC5live
,
@trishgreenhalgh
stated:
“when we first introduced mask mandates in July 2020 cases were going up very, very rapidly & then the mask mandate brought them under control within weeks”
This is flat out wrong.
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I was delighted to be one of the signatories to this letter.
A group of us across medicine, academia and other areas have come together and sent this letter to the PM and his team.
Professors Heneghan, Gupta and many others - a wide range of voices as this crisis affects everything.
We desperately need a rethink to find a better balance.
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England has got rid of nearly all internal restrictions & mask mandates without seeing any big rise in cases so far. It is now time for the Govt to revisit its travel restrictions …
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How many times?
• Scientists (literally) make up scary numbers & call for restrictions.
• Media lobby & agitate for restrictions.
• Govt claims to believe made-up numbers & implements measures which have never been effective before & for which they present no evidence.
...
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This is really inexcusable. And remember this misinformation is not a one-off - it seems to be part of a co-ordinated campaign.
🚨🚨
@reallorraine
- “That is a really a figure we really need to concentrate on, 90% of people in hospital have not been vaccinated”
➡️ A figure to focus on because its factually incorrect from
@DrHilaryJones
◼️ 36% of Covid patients in hospital unvaccinated not 90%
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In a sane, rational world, people would be look at surging case rates in vaccine passport/mask law countries like Ireland, Netherlands, Germany & Austria & would rule out any move to Plan B in England FOREVER …
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At this stage, it is hard to see how we can make any sensible progress without SAGE being disbanded.
SAGE has recommended all secondary schools remain closed in January.
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More vaccine passport countries now seeing big rises in cases: France, Italy, Portugal.
Why is it that the more evidence we get about how useless vaccine passports are, the greater is the pressure to extend vaccine-based restrictions?
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Utterly breathtaking exchange.
Restrictions are being based on scary numbers that are simply made up to justfy restrictions.
@FraserNelson
@doug_no1
@TAH_Sci
@juji_gatami
We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy
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Absolutely disgraceful. Should be a resigning matter for
@nadhimzahawi
if this proves to be true.
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Two days in a row: this is now starting to look like deliberate misinformation.
@reallorraine
really needs to explain why this has happened.
🚨🚨
@realmartinkemp
“90% of the people that are in hospital are unvaccinated”
➡️ Same false information on the
@reallorraine
show as yesterday (see tweet below).
She was tagged in many times and should know its false information but did nothing to correct or alert the viewers.
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Listened to
@bbcr4today
. From 7.55 there were 3 guests in a row putting the case for *delay* to schools opening &/or a new, stricter lockdown. No challenge from presenter
@Marthakearney
Not a single guest to give the argument against another lockdown.
Where is the balance?
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The BBC is going to have to live with the consequences of its biased journalism during Covid for years to come.
It’s not that they were simply a Govt mouthpiece, though there was an element of that when it came to vaccine policy.
...
@elonmusk
@BBC
…
Elon Musk takes BBC to task over COVID “misinformation” and claims of increased “hate speech” on Twitter: “Does the BBC hold itself at all responsible for misinformation regarding masking and side effects of vaccinations and not reporting on that at all?”
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Science in 2021:
• Think of a number, any number (as long as it's scary)
• Double it
• Announce to press we can’t open up because of it
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Two things stand out from the data & evidence:
1. When there is a surge in infections, cases eventually come down whether or not there is a lockdown/significant restrictions.
2. Lockdowns/many restrictions have little (not necessarily no) impact on hospitalisations & deaths.
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So we can only get our freedoms if we all get tested regularly. I thought it was if we all wore masks. Or was it if the vulnerable got vaccinated? Or if we agreed to vaccine passports?
Sorry if I'm losing track.
Everyone will be able to take a free rapid coronavirus test twice a week from the 9th April.
Reclaiming our lost freedoms & getting back to normal hinges on us all getting tested regularly.
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The reaction to
@DrAseemMalhotra
measured questions about risks of Covid-19 vaccines is telling.
Instead of looking at the evidence & debating, prominent scientists plus media like
@Guardian
&
@theTimes
have focused on complaining about Dr Malhotra being given a voice at all.
…
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Vaccine passports are unethical, unlikely to lead to any significant benefits & will cause huge costs. But they have another significant problem:
Under the Govt’s Plan B, the conditions for bringing them in will only happen if (ironically) vaccines are not working well.
…
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@gmpolice
Have I got this right? GM Police are actually advertising the fact that they fined someone for holding a child's birthday party outside in their own garden.
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80% drop in cases, vast majority of vulnerable vaccinated and we are told outdoor meetings "possibly even gardens" may stop being a criminal offence in 6 weeks' time.
Does anyone in Government realise how deranged they are starting to sound?
EXC: V GOOD FRIDAY! Two households will be to meet up outside at Easter under PM's lockdown lift
Five-month ‘Roadmap to Recovery’ will allow outdoor mixing in parks and possibly even gardens by April 2
Covid war committee meet Sunday to finalise plan...
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Government pushing for vaccine/testing passports even for outdoor events. Is there no-one in the Cabinet who will look at places like Texas and Georgia? Full capacity sports and:
No vaccine passports
No compulsory tests
No compulsory masks
No virus spike
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What on earth is the rationale for limiting this to "fully vaccinated"?
If you have just had Covid & tested negative twice, there is surely not the slightest additional risk for someone unvaccinated.
Is there even 1 journalist who will ask the Govt what their evidence is?
BREAKING: Health Secretary Sajid Javid has announced that from Monday, the isolation period for fully vaccinated people in England who test positive for COVID will be reduced from seven days to five.
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
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If the new variant proves not to be resistant to vaccines, a move to Plan B vaccine passports would continue to have zero justification.
If the new variant proves to be resistant to vaccines, a move to Plan B vaccine passports would have even less justification.
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Can I end with a plea to journalists?
When ministers, scientists, union & council leaders push for more school closures & even tighter restrictions, at least provide *some* challenge on why we shd believe measures that have failed so disastrously up to now will succeed this time
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Whether you approve of some, all or none of what
@Joey7Barton
says, what on earth has it got to do with the Government?
@StuartAndrew
has no business seeking to shut down other people's speech.
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Once vaccine passports are introduced it will change our way of life forever. We must not become a *papers please* society for normal everyday activities. Vaccinated or not, it's time to stand
#together
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UK-wide Covid-19 patients in hospital now below 10,000 from peak of over 20,000: lowest number 28 March.
Hospital admissions (England only) down from 3,127 to 678: lowest level since 20 March.
Still more to do but good to see progress being made.
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The regional tier system was:
ineffective (Bolton).
unnecessary (Liverpool, Nottingham).
arbitrary (cup of tea only with *substantial meal*, no family in own garden).
hugely costly.
It did not even prevent another lockdown.
It should be scrapped entirely, not *toughened*.
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Whatever your views on the current lockdown, can we please all agree if tier 1 restrictions were so ineffective, that on 2nd Dec, we scrap rather than *strengthen them* starting with:
10pm curfew
Law of 6
14-day isolation law
Mask mandate
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Latest data in the NE shows:
NHS triage data down 23% in a week.
Increase in +ve tests slowing.
Hospitalisations (NE & Yorks) stabilising.
Deaths averaging about 3 per day (whole of NE & Yorks).
What does
@MattHancock
do?
Of course! Impose yet more restrictions on the region.
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Yes, of course comments like these are appalling and utterly unacceptable, but where are the Government Ministers coming out to disown them?
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The PM says current indications are that vaccines hopefully continue to provide good protection against serious illness & death from new variant but may not protect so well against infection.
If so, then vax passports & sacking unvaxxed nurses should be taken off the table asap.
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Apparently a decision on vaccinating 5-11s is imminent.
Remember for 12-15s, JCVI did not recommend vaccination based on health costs vs benefits. However, Govt offered 1 dose anyway on grounds it would lower infection rates & reduce school time lost.
How did that work out?
…
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This is not good enough from
@piersmorgan
Even at the time he was advocating that the unvaccinated should be shut out of everyday activities, there was very little firm evidence of higher infection/transmission rates amongst unvaccinated ...
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England had 6 months of sanity up until a couple of weeks ago:
We experienced the Delta variant & a big rise in cases without adding new restrictions.
We went virtually restriction-free on 19 July & started to “live with the virus” ...
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UKHSA data report double vaccinated adults are currently testing positive at much higher rates than unvaccinated. So of course post-travel testing is (rightly) dropped for the former but kept for the latter.
More anti-science from the Government.
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Lockdown has proved to be perhaps the most disastrous peacetime policy ever enacted by a UK Government: no material benefit on outcomes like hospitalisation & deaths yet economic & social destruction.
Odd then to hear an ex-Govt advisor actually trying to claim credit for it.
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Absolutely true that far too many journalists did not do their job. Almost always, the question was:
Why not lockdown sooner or harder or longer?
Virtually never was it:
Why not lift the lockdown sooner?
or
What is the evidence that restriction x actually works?
Much of the blame for how we ended up locked down lies with the British broadcast media – the BBC, ITV News, Good Morning Britain, Sky News and C4 News – which has never questioned the efficacy of lockdown, only demanded harder, longer restrictions on their viewers’ lives.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Some journalists seem to have trouble thinking up questions to challenge restrictions like those announced today.
So to help you out, here are 10 suggestions for you to put to ministers when they come up for interview ...
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The latest
@UKHSA
Vaccine Surveillance shows 78% of infections in working age adults (18-59) occurred in the fully vaccinated.
Estimated take up for this age group is between 70% (using NIMS population estimates) & 81% (using ONS) ...
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Rightly, the vaccine passport debate has focused on how they are unethical & discriminatory. But please could someone in Government articulate what they think is the actual public health case?
...
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A great illustration of how useless vaccine passports are. Given the costs they impose on individuals and business, and the ethical issues, hard to see how anyone could support them.
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Restrictions were imposed to stop health services being overwhelmed.
Govt policy on reopening now seems to be based on an assumption that opening 1 thing inevitably increases transmission & so something else has to be kept shut.
There is little support for this in the data ...
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This sounds like very good news.
Denmark, which reopened schools on 15 April, declares its first day without Covid deaths
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What I really don't understand is why the Government are so desperate to put so many areas into Tier 3.
They know it is unlikely to be effective (possibly even counter-productive).
They must know of the devastation it would cause to people, business & public finances.
So why?
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Just received a letter from my union
@ucu
actually celebrating the continued closure of primary schools in the UK. Shameful.
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You would hope that vaccination still reduces the likelihood of catching Covid, but it is clear that significant number of vaccinated are still getting infected & presumably can then transmit on.
Does that not in itself demolish any argument for vaccine passports/certification?
This morning I tested positive for Covid. I’m waiting for my PCR result, but thankfully I have had my jabs and symptoms are mild.
Please make sure you come forward for your vaccine if you haven’t already.
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Update to Sweden.
Positive tests now nearly 60% < peak: a similar drop to that seen in the UK despite many schools in Sweden being open, pubs & restaurants too though with restrictions.
New ICUs down by even more. Deaths below peak too, but as always beware later updating.
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Vaccine passports: the policy that more than any other has demonstrably failed to prevent infection surges in country after country.
Utterly indefensible.
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Everyone should be angered by
@sajidjavid
's dangerous comments.
His decision to sack carers who decide the vaccine is not right for them at this time is really indefensible: not just a morally wrong decision but one which will impose huge costs yet have little or no benefit.
'I'm stunned by the Secretary of State's comments.'
Nadra Ahmed, chair of the National Care Association, tells Alastair Stewart she is 'angered' by Sajid Javid for telling care home workers to 'get another job' if they refuse the jab.
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In case you were wondering, this is not a spoof: SAGE really have presented a paper to Govt suggesting step 4 of the roadmap may lead to 10k hospitalisations /day in England. In fact, the upper bound projection is 20k /day. This is from serious academics at top universities ...
SAGE's claim that the Indian variant could mean 10,000 hospital admissions a day in mid-July assumes that between 30% and 60% of the U.K. population could become infected with the new variant in a single week. Yeah, right.
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A reminder that the Government is shutting London's pubs, restaurants & theatres on the basis of a rise in cases that started during lockdown when London's pubs, restaurants & theatres were shut.
It's hard to exaggerate the stupidity of calls to shut pubs (& restaurants & leisure) in London & Essex because of the rise in infections: the recent increase relates to infections when pubs were actually closed during lockdown.
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Hard to think of a better argument against England’s *Plan B* than Ireland’s situation.
They have had vax passports for months, v high vax rates & never-ending mask laws.
This has done nothing to stop case rates rising hugely over the past few weeks, now well above England* …
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Governments face a clear choice:
• No restrictions on people's freedom, hospitality etc & see infections go up & down including really big outbreaks.
• Lots of restrictions on people's freedom, hospitality etc & see infections go up & down including really big outbreaks.
...
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Just like they helped us avoid the November lockdown and the January one.
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Has any Government anywhere provided evidence that vaccine passports have proved effective in reducing infection spread, let alone hospitalisations & deaths? ...
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The
@BigBrotherWatch
expose on Govt surveillance of citizens who challenged Covid policy is frankly mind-blowing.
Reading this makes me look at
@DAaronovitch
*odd* review of State of Fear by
@BareReality
in a new light
…
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Be very cautious about the reported increase in the "R" rate.
1. This reflects the situation 3 weeks ago, not since lockdown eased.
2. The estimated value is still below 1 indicating reduction in infections over time, even if slower than we would like.
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@Lee_One_Pen
@TheRealJackDee
Defending the free speech of someone with whom you disagree would actually be quite a good hill to die on.
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Florida saw a big increase in cases & hospitalisations in July so it's good to see both decreasing steadily without need for lockdowns, vaccine passports, or laws sacking unvaxed carers.
Note schools have been open about 4 weeks (no state mask mandate) & cases still dropping.
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Mandatory vaccine passports in Nordic-Baltic countries:
Yes:
• Lithuania: mid-Aug, tightened 13 Sept
• Estonia: 26 Aug
• Latvia: 16 June
No:
• Sweden
• Iceland
• Denmark: scrapped 10 Sep
• Finland*
• Norway**
How effective have they proved in limiting Covid outbreaks?
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A new national lockdown would have devastating effects on the economy, businesses, jobs, isolation, loneliness, mental health.
Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But ...
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Debates over data & evidence are important but sometimes we need to take a step back.
In the UK today, if a lonely, elderly lady invites a friend into her house for a coffee, she is committing a crime.
Not going against advice or guidance but a *criminal* offence ...
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Positive tests in Manchester, Salford, Trafford already decreasing. Rate of increase in Lancashire coming down steadily.
I think the technical term for this is bonkers.
The BBC understands that health officials will this afternoon decide whether to recommend moving Lancashire and Greater Manchester into Tier 3 "Very High" status.
A meeting of the Joint Biosecurity Council’s “Silver” committee has the issue its agenda for this afternoon.
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Government's vaccine passport proposals for England:
• Assertion of benefits with no real-world evidence presented.
• No evaluation of costs.
• Prior immunity not even considered.
Remarkable.
Will the media interrogate? Will the Opposition oppose?
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Just when you thought things couldn't get any more insane...
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Update to various Coronavirus indicators.
Deaths up quite a bit (at 23 Sep) but from reports already in, rate of increase will slow in the days ahead.
New cases still going up, but not especially rapidly.
Good news is no increase in admissions for 1st time since 3rd Sept.
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Delighted to be one of the signatories of this letter.
22 leading scientists say all lockdown restrictions should END on June 21
Vaccine means covid will have an impact akin to flu
we should not impose harmful lockdown measures on the basis of a "theoretical" risk of new variants
@rwjdingwall
@CebmOxford
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Vaccine passports are terrible: discriminatory & unethical. But I wonder if floating the idea again will even work to *nudge* take-up amongst young people. I suspect the thinking will go:
"What's wrong with the vaccine that they need to twist my arm so much to have it?"
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Hospital patients⬇️nearly 20% from their early Nov peak.
Deaths⬇️35% from early Nov peak.
Positive tests still going up but, if anything, rate of increase slowing up.
And they really think now is time to bring in costly, ineffective & divisive vaccine passports?
Update to various Covid-19 indicators for England:
• Deaths continue to fall: down another 4% on the day, 33% drop over last 4 weeks.
• Admissions up slightly, total patients stable.
• Positive cases & Zoe still increasing.
• Triage steady, no update to positivity.
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Compulsory vaccination, whether imposed by government or by private organisations, is not just unethical, but downright dangerous.
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It’s hard to think of a policy* which has unravelled so completely & spectacularly as vaccine passports.
They have caused huge harm & division, yet nearly every European country that has introduced them has seen unprecedented increases in Covid infections within a few months …
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With the good news today, worth being clear that the rationale for ending Plan B should NOT be that cases are falling.
Sooner or later infections will rise again, perhaps by a lot. The key point is that masks, WFH, vaccine passports etc. are not a proportionate response ...
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...
No wonder
@TiceRichard
has put in a complaint to
@ElectoralCommUK
.
The
@Channel4
piece is likely to have significant consequences for the election. The
@ElectoralCommUK
need to get to the bottom of this very fast.
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Time to check in again to see how Germany are doing since easing lockdown on 19 April.
Remember easing has happened in stages & significant lags between infections & outcomes, esp. deaths. That said, given 5 weeks have elapsed, our Govt should now be able to draw some lessons.
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Scotland has reported 7 new deaths today, but even as we move out of weekend reporting, Northern Ireland has reported no new deaths for the 3rd day in a row.
Last death reported (more may come in later) for NI was on 5 June.
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This misinformation has been rebutted so many times, there is absolutely no excuse for Ministers repeating it any more and no excuse for journalists not to challenge it.
🚨🚨
@nadhimzahawi
repeating the false stat on BBC - ‘90% of people in ICU today are unvaccinated’
➡️ Latest estimate puts it at 61% in December
➡️ Since then numbers in ICU fallen and more in with Covid but not for it.
See thread below for details 👇
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The insanity of the Govt's vaccine passport decision:
The only way the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed by Covid cases is if Omicron proves significantly resistant to vaccines. But if so, vaccine passports will not just be ineffective but potentially counterproductive ...
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This and other similar statements by
@nadhimzahawi
will stand as a mark of shame hanging over the rest of his political career.
@Telegraph
.We have no plans to introduce vaccine passports. We have vaccinated, as of yesterday, 2,431,648 first dose and 412,167 second dose. No one has been given or will be required to have a vaccine passport.
@NHSuk
@Emily_JR_Lawson
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We’re going to get the country fit by:
• ordering you to stay indoors
• shutting gyms
• criminalising outdoor sport
• banning children playing together outside
And for good measure, we’ll get the police to threaten you if you try to go for a walk a few miles from your home.
I’ve been doing all I can to lose weight, and I'm not only fitter and healthier but also happier for it.
I'm pleased we’re investing £100 million into services to get the country healthier so we can all – quite literally – bounce back better.
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The decision by Austria to people who decide not to have a Covid vaccination in prison takes tyranny to a new level.
The move must, of course, be condemned by everyone, irrespective of what side of the Covid/vaccination policy debate you have been on up to now.
However …
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... a crime not for a week or two to stop hospitals being overwhelmed but for months on end
a crime even though she and her friend have been vaccinated
and even though infections have fallen dramatically
and no end date given.
How can this be acceptable?
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