CAPA India
@capa_india
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CAPA India is a leading aviation consulting, research, analytics and transaction advisory practice.
New Delhi, India
Joined June 2017
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Airport traffic in India could almost double over the next 5-7 years. That would exhaust existing & planned capacity at Indian airports by FY30. The surge in domestic traffic over the next couple of years may leave limited space for an international hub play.
#IndianAviation
4
16
91
Founder & CEO Vinay Dube says that
@AkasaAir
is not just another LCC. The airline was launched because of the long-term opportunity in India. It saw the potential of having a well-managed professionally owned and managed airline.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
0
6
86
.
@IndiGo6E
has now overtaken
@airindiain
to become the largest single international airline operating to/from India in terms of seats deployed, accounting for 11.7% of total capacity. IndiGo is now the leader in both the domestic & international markets in India.
#IndianAviation
3
33
88
.
@IndiGo6E
's
#marketcap
crossing INR1 trillion is an exceptional achievement and a historic milestone that should be celebrated by the entire industry. The carrier has not only delivered a high-quality service to consumers, but it is the only airline in India that has
1
8
85
The crisis in
#IndianAviation
as a result of the 2nd wave has reached a point of no return for some & can no longer be ignored by
@MoCA_GoI
. Failure to reduce the distress - and to do so within days, not longer - will result in irreparable damage to jobs & the sector as a whole.
8
34
79
.
@AkasaAir
has taken the historical delivery of 20
@Boeing
737MAX in 12 months. There is a lot of planning and execution that goes behind that kind of success.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
@Boeing
0
4
67
Congratulations to
@IndiGo6E
on achieving a market cap of USD10bn for the first time. A remarkable achievement for an Indian airline.
#IndianAviation
0
6
62
India's Union
#Budget2022
had nothing for aviation or tourism. This was highly disappointing & insensitive given the near-broken state of these sectors, although somewhat expected. Industry will be pinning its hopes - as in the past - on post-Budget redressal.
#IndianAviation
1
20
55
Priorities for new administration should include:
-privatise
@airindiain
-quickly resolve
@jetairways
-bring ATF under GST
-liberalise bilaterals
-reduce tax on MRO
-develop airport infrastructure
-restructure DGCA/BCAS
-encourage education/training
-revitalise GA & cargo
6
37
54
Congratulations to
@airvistara
on their
#VistaraRetroJet
. A stylishly executed initiative that takes us back to the golden age of travel, and a positive reminder that India used to set the bar in global aviation, and can do so once again.
@TheSanjivKapoor
2
7
50
Domestic demand for
#IndianAviation
is being suppressed by the continuation of fare and capacity regulation. This is delaying an orderly recovery.
@MoCA_GoI
needs to provide clarity on when such regulation will be lifted so that airlines can better plan for the next 2 quarters.
5
15
50
Bid submission by
@TataCompanies
for
@airindiain
is a milestone moment for
#IndianAviation
. If successful, it could possibly re-set the sector, positively & structurally. Congratulations to the government for their strategic commitment to privatisation. But last mile is critical.
1
9
50
Up next in conversation with Adani Airports CEO Arun Bansal at the CAPA India Aviation Summit 2023!
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
#airports
0
14
49
Air India Express CEO, K. Shyam Sundar: There are so many nuggets out there in terms of new route opportunities. The response to the new service from
@aaistvairport
to
@sharjahairport
has been far stronger than expected, and with minimal promotion.
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
3
24
44
The Honourable Minister's comments on
@AirAsiaIndian
- although later clarified - were unfortunate. The entire industry is under stress and singling out one carrier is demotivating for its staff and other stakeholders
#IndianAviation
1
14
44
Plans to launch start-up airline, Akasa, and to revive
@jetairways
reflect both confidence in India's long-term market fundamentals, as well as a view that some incumbent airlines will not be able to secure solvent recapitalisation leading to consolidation.
#IndianAviation
2
9
42
CAPA India wishes Vinay Dube & Amit Agarwal all the very best in their future professional endeavours. Together with all of the staff of
@jetairways
, both of them maintained dignity, and were focused & committed to securing the revival of 9W under very trying circumstances.
0
14
40
CAPA wishes
@AdityaGhosh6E
the very best for the future as he prepares to step down from
@IndiGo6E
. Aditya led a deeply committed team, with strong support & strategic direction from both promoters, that turned 6E into a highly valuable company that re-defined
#indianaviation
.
1
5
36
We wish
@airvistara
well as it prepares to spread its wings onto international routes, taking its high standards of Indian service and hospitality firstly to
@ChangiAirport
in a couple of days, followed by
@DXB
from 21-Aug.
#IndianAviation
1
6
36
'
@IndiGo6E
's commercial fleet reaching 300 aircraft is a major milestone for the carrier and for
#IndianAviation
. The carrier's strategy of placing large bets on expansion and scale since 2005, supported by exceptional operational performance, has been been highly effective.
1
8
35
The aircraft order by
@airvistara
for up to 10 wide bodies and 57 narrow bodies – including options and aircraft on lease – is a significant milestone for the airline. Our congratulations to Vistara!
#indianaviation
1
9
34
Congratulations to
@airvistara
on completing 4 years of operations! The airline has enhanced service standards, delivered a fresh, new experience and added a positive dynamic to domestic air travel in India.
#IndianAviation
2
5
31
With the market cap of
@IndiGo6E
having now crossed USD10 billion, the carrier has the third highest market cap amongst global LCCs, behind
@SouthwestAir
and
@Ryanair
#IndianAviation
0
17
31
Congratulations to
@IndiGo6E
on completing 14 years, and for the outstanding success it has achieved. Maintaining this going forward will be challenging given the very tough environment. But if any airline has strong fundamentals to be able to do so, it is IndiGo.
#IndianAviation
1
5
30
In 2018, the total number of passengers (domestic and international) carried by Indian LCCs -
@IndiGo6E
,
@flyspicejet
,
@goairlinesindia
and
@AirAsia
India - crossed the 100 million passenger threshold.
@IndiGo6E
carried around 62% of this traffic.
#IndianAviation
1
13
28
Congrats to
@IndiGo6E
on 12 years of successful operations! Since launching in 2006 the airline has delivered world class performance as an LCC across all key strategic, operational and financial benchmarks
#indianaviation
#IndiGoTurns12
0
3
28
H2FY22 will be defining period for
#IndianAviation
:
- Privatisation of
@airindiain
- INR90-100bn capital raising by LCCs - will determine future for some
- New start-up, Akasa
- Possible relaunch of
@jetairways
- Privatisation of 6 more airports
- Announcement of large MRO ⬇️
1
6
30
Decision by
@MoCA_GoI
to increase fare floors and caps by 12.5% is shocking and insensitive, to airlines and more importantly to passengers. Sends a signal that we are not interested in restoring traffic volumes
#IndianAviation
8
8
30
One of most significant reforms in
#IndianAviation
was finally announced yesterday. The award of
@airindiain
to
@TataCompanies
is much deeper than just the privatisation of an airline. It is possibly a re-set for the entire sector and a positive signal to the wider economy.
1
1
29
Last week, during the course of our regular monitoring of Indian aviation, CAPA identified that for the first time,
@IndiGo6E
operated the highest number of international seats to/from India. We found this to be an interesting & notable development, and tweeted accordingly.
2
8
28
In conversation with Sir Tim Clark, President at
@emirates
:
- Coming year to be the most profitable in airline history
- If network is robust enough, you can always deal with & navigate through situations such as Covid
#AviationIndia
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
2
3
28
With
@AirAsiaIndian
having become EBITDA positive in 1QFY2020, and reached close to break-even at a net level, it is feasible to expect that the airline could break-even for the full year to 31-Mar-2020, especially if fuel prices remain low
#IndianAviation
1
10
27
.
@AkasaAir
was the first airline go through the eGCA and the process was really smooth and efficient. It was opposite of what the general perception is.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
0
3
24
CAPA expects Indian airlines to report combined loss of >USD350mn in Q2FY20 - much higher than earlier estimates. Possibly 1 or 2 carriers may report modest profits. Benefits of consolidation were short-lived. CAPA India will release its Q2 update next week.
#IndianAviation
0
15
26
The decision to allow airlines to start taking bookings for travel effective 15-Apr - when a decision has not yet been taken on the lifting of the lockdown - is unfair on consumers and needs to be reconsidered....continued below
#IndianAviation
#covidindia
3
11
25
In conversation with
@BilalEksiTHY
, CEO & board member of
@TurkishAirlines
at the CAPA India Aviation Summit 2023.
#AviationIndia
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
1
2
24
At the CAPA India Aviation Summit 2023,
@IndiGo6E
CEO Pieter Elbers says:
- Quite a few Made-in-IndiGo leaders in the company with varied experiences within
- More opportunities for people to learn with international expansion
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
1
1
23
CAPA India urges
@MoCA_GoI
to ensure that passengers are informed upfront when booking travel that they will receive a credit shell, and not a cash refund, if flights are cancelled. Airlines need to be more transparent with passengers.
#IndianAviation
1
15
23
A historic decision about the privatisation of
@airindiain
is expected to be announced soon. This will represent a structural shift for the sector with positive long term implications for Indian aviation.
1
4
25
After a long delay,
@airvistara
finally receives regulatory approval to launch international operations. This will be an eagerly awaited debut, as the airline is expected to bring world class service standards to long haul routes.
#IndianAviation
0
7
24
.
@RohitInTheAir
, CEO
@JazeeraAirways
, says customers want to spend minimum on travel & maximum on destination. The new technology that enables greater range comes with a cost of reduced payload...
#AviationIndia
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
2
4
24
Up next at the CAPA India Aviation Summit: Praveen Iyer, Co-Founder & CCO
@AkasaAir
; Ankur Garg, CCO
@AirAsiaIndia
; Aditya Agarwal, CFO
@Cleartrip
; Santosh Kumar Country Head - Indian Sub-continent & Indonesia
@booking
.com;…
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
2
3
23
The Indian aviation sector is likely to shrink significantly post-COVID, even if some vulnerable airlines manage to survive. CAPA India estimates there could be 200-250 surplus aircraft for the next 6-12 months. Read more in our latest update:
#covidindia
1
11
22
CAPA India wishes Indian airlines & airports - especially all frontline staff - a very safe resumption of services on 25 May. All stakeholders need to work together with a common mission to ensure a safe and seamless experience.
#IndianAviation
#COVID19India
0
11
22
On ‘the likely evolution of India’s long-haul networks, hubs and aircraft’,
@SatyakiRaghuna1
of
@BLRAirport
says:
- Bangalore airport been successful in attracting long-haul traffic in the last 5-7 years and connected 7-8 very important long-haul markets in last 5 years
- India
1
5
23
.
@Skyscanner
Commercial Director APAC, Gavin Harris: Most searched route between India & Europe with no direct service is Amritsar-London
@amritsarairport
@HeathrowAirport
@Gatwick_Airport
8
8
22
3 carriers –
@flyspicejet
,
@airvistara
&
@AirAsiaIndian
– are accelerating fleet expansion by 51-66 aircraft above their original plan for FY20. Spice will account for 30-40 of them. This should restore loss of Jet’s domestic capacity by Sep-2019.
#IndianAviation
2
13
23
The number of weekly international seats deployed by
@IndiGo6E
to/from India has increased by 43% in the space of just 3 months.
#IndianAviation
Source:
@CAPA_Aviation
@OAG_Aviation
3
11
22
India can be proud that it has the world’s highest share of female airline
#pilots
.
@airindiain
has led the way, championing gender parity in the cockpit for many years. Good to see private carriers similarly encouraging young Indian women to become pilots.
#IndianAviation
0
11
22
.
@IndiGo6E
Chief Commercial Officer, Willy Boulter: IndiGo will fly 14x weekly to China by end of this year. Ridiculous that the world's two most populous nations have just 47 weekly flight between them. We will do our bit to address that.
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
1
15
18
India has now had 17 months of domestic fare caps & floors, representing a very extended period of intervention in pricing, which is one of the most strategic tools that an airline has.
#IndianAviation
2
1
22
Up next
@rajeshdogra7
, Chief CX & GH Officer
@airindiain
;
@nitinsethi80
, Chief Digital Officer Consumer
@AdaniOnline
; Anurag Garg, Chief Strategy Officer
@thalesgroup
; & Balaji Srinivasan, ED & CTO
@DreamFolks_Srv
at
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
#airports
0
5
21
Ajay Singh, Chairman & MD
@flyspicejet
: An industry growing as fast as Indian aviation will likely need more resources than are available. But we have not cancelled a single flight because of pilot shortages. We are going to start our own flying school.
#CAPASummit
#IndiaAviation
2
14
20
Australia-India traffic corridor remains seriously capacity starved. Two-way traffic >1.5mn pax pa, but market served by just 8x/week non-stop flights each way. Most 6th freedom airlines that carry bulk of pax are also bilateral constrained. Yet market grown at double digits.
1
14
20
CAPA India Webinar: Internal advocates for diversity & inclusion are critical for progress. Executives such as
@iamadityaghosh
have played a tremendous role as champions & mentors within their organisations and in the wider community
#IndianAviation
@IndiGo6E
@AkasaAir
0
3
20
CAPA India celebrates 15 yrs!
#indianaviation
has seen dramatic transformation since opening doors of our South Asia practice in 2003. We have constantly endeavoured to make a positive & strategic difference. Thanks to our staff, clients & the entire industry for their support.
2
10
19
CAPA Research analysed
@OAG_Aviation
data on Indian international seat capacity for the current week, compared with the corresponding week last year. Indian carriers have crossed a 40% share of international seat capacity for the first time in recent history.
#IndianAviation
3
13
18
Inadequate recapitalisation of
@airindiain
will further reduce any remote chance of revival. Could result in fewer aircraft being available for operations. And would set the national carrier on a painful and very costly path towards irrelevance.
#indianaviation
0
7
20
India-Asia Aviation Dialogue: Indian Government wants to create mega-hubs and super-connectors. But this will require a coordinated eco-system of central & state governments, airlines, airports, tourism, stopovers, visa policy, competitive costs etc.
#IndianAviation
0
3
20
The closure of
@airindiain
in the event of a failed privatisation exercise would have a very serious impact on the aviation industry & the wider economy. The Indian government must ensure attractive terms of sale & remove barriers to enable successful transaction.
#IndianAviation
3
8
19
Congrats to
@jetairways
on 25 yrs, 1st pvt Indian carrier to reach this milestone. Jet brought world class service to Indian skies, especially in first 15 yrs of ops, made the country proud. With new & strong leadership, and possible recapitalisation, expect stronger 9W to emerge
0
7
18
CAPA Advisory & Research: Indian airlines, airports and air navigation services will need to increase their employee numbers by 256,000 over the next 10 years. Over 17,000 commercial
#pilots
will need to be recruited for growth and attrition
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
1
9
17
#India
-
#MiddleEast
Aviation Dialogue: Adel Ali, Group CEO stated that while
@airarabiagroup
was unable to expand in India for the last 10 years because of bilateral constraints, the airline continued to expand elsewhere and found new markets instead.
#IndianAviation
0
4
20
Our Chief Guest, the Hon. Minister for Civil Aviation
@JM_Scindia
, speaks to media after delivering the opening keynote address at the CAPA India Aviation Summit on ‘Setting India on course to be an aviation powerhouse’.
#CIAS23
#IndianAviation
1
2
16
Up next panel discussion on digital by design – transforming through digitalisation with Clayton Grant, GM for Asia Pacific
@flyrlabs
; Avinash Agrawal, Account Director
@AmadeusITGroup
; & Anand Srinivasan, Co-founder & CIO
@AkasaAir
.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
#data
0
1
18
Slowdown in visitor arrivals in part due to exit of
@jetairways
, which had largest share of int'l seats to/from India. This, combined with near freeze on liberalisation of bilaterals, is resulting in severe capacity constraints. Some airlines reporting load factors of up to 97%.
1
11
19
Neelu Khatri of
@AkasaAir
highlights:
- The airline has a huge pipeline of
#aircraft
.
- Hong Kong and East of Africa among markets of interest.
- Connectivity to Kuwait, Dammam, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Thailand is on the horizon.
#CIAS24
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
#Indianaviation
0
3
19
CAPA Advisory expects record profits for key Indian carriers in FY20 (much higher than CAPA Outlook of Feb-19), as a result of suspension of
@jetairways
operations. Will reflect in Q1 results. Further details to be released in next week's CAPA India Insights.
#IndianAviation
1
11
19
The 22k extra weekly seats in the India-Saudi Arabia BASA is the 1st significant increase by India with any market for several years. Too early to say whether it reflects a change in bilateral policy settings or is an isolated case
#IndianAviation
0
4
18
Proud to kick off the CAPA India Aviation Summit 2023’s inauguration by Hon Union Civil Aviation Minister
@JM_Scindia
. Exciting 3 days of discussions coming up! We will address the challenges aviation faces and unlock opportunities for a brighter future.
#CAPAIndia
#CIAS23
3
5
19
Successful privatisation of
@airindiain
will lead to market-based approach to India’s aero-political settings. In addition, government is likely to address other policy, regulatory & fiscal distortions. Together, these would positively reset competitiveness of
#IndianAviation
.
0
2
19
Government’s decision to revisit privatisation of
@airindiain
is very welcome. Interest likely to be strong, including from some leading global carriers. Timely to revisit CAPA's earlier Key Success Factors for privatisation
@HardeepSPuri
@MoCA_GoI
1
8
19
CAPA India welcomes
@MoCA_GoI
's decision requiring airlines to provide the option of a full cash refund for flights booked during 1st lockdown period, which have been cancelled. Protecting passenger interests during this difficult period is the right thing to do.
#IndiaAviation
1
7
18
As a travel industry veteran, with leadership experience at organisations such as
@airvistara
,
@flyspicejet
,
@jetairways
,
@OberoiHotels
,
@BainandCompany
, and currently as an advisor at
@SaudiAirlinesIN
,
@TheSanjivKapoor
shared his views at
#CIAS23
on the structure of the
0
3
18
Could
@jetairways
have avoided bankruptcy if secondary slot trading and securitisation was allowed in India? We'll explore this issue, amongst others, at our next webinar on 15-Jul on airport slots & the way forward. Register at
#IndianAviation
0
3
18
CEO Campbell Wilson aims
@airindiain
to be among the top 5 aviation players in world.
@AirAsiaIndia
& potentially
@airvistara
young culture to play key role in setting
@airindiain
culture, adding lot more needs to be done for gender equality in Indian aviation
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
0
1
18
Congratulations to
@MoCA_GoI
and Govt of Kerala on launch of commercial ops at
@airportCNN
. Kerala becomes only the 2nd Indian state (after Tamil Nadu) with int'l services at 4 airports. Kannur Airport will stimulate economic growth in N.Kerala through increased trade & tourism.
2
3
17
The removal of capacity caps on domestic services - after 18 months - is a welcome development. Although it is unlikely to have any impact due to the fact that fare regulation remains in place.
#IndianAviation
2
2
18
.
@Skyscanner
Commercial Director APAC, Gavin Harris: Most searched routes between India & Asia with no direct services are Delhi-Saigon, Goa-Bangkok, Delhi-Bali, Delhi-Osaka
@DelhiAirport
@baliairports
,
@kansai_airports
@AirportsTH
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
2
11
18
Chief Strategy & Commercial Officer of
@airvistara
,
@TheSanjivKapoor
: Despite India being a price sensitive market, there is a segment that is willing to pay a premium for full service
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
1
11
17
Pieter Elbers, CEO,
@IndiGo
joined us at the CAPA India Aviation Summit last month and spoke about how the airline is planning for growth for the next 10 years, pursuing its own unique business model, which delivered record profits in FY2024. He also shared his experience of
1
2
18
Minister of State for Civil Aviation,
@jayantsinha
: The potential for Indian aviation is underpinned by demographic realities. There is a 300mn strong middle class with steady jobs, who own consumer goods. They aren't yet travelling but will start soon
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
0
8
18
@praveeniyer8
says
@AkasaAir
has IFC plans and does have USBs. It is an investment & what matters is RoI. Airlines still looking at it as a ‘nice to have’ and there is a big ocean they airlines are not considering.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#AviationIndia
1
3
16
At end Q2, with Jet's exit,
@airindia
now has the largest share of international seats at both at
@DelhiAirport
&
@CSIAMumbai
. The 3 LCCs
@IndiGo6E
,
@flyspicejet
and
@goairlinesindia
have increased their share of international seats at BOM over the last year from 4.0% to 20.4%.
1
3
16
Vinay Dube of
@AkasaAir
says we have no targets in terms of fleet and market share. Growth, reliability, cost leadership, along with employee and customer satisfaction, are our focus areas. He expects India’s inbound and outbound tourism to increase in the near future and to,
0
4
17
In Nov-2019, foreign visitor arrivals (excluding Bangladesh) to India increased 8.6% year-on-year. This was the strongest result in 21 months, since Feb-2018.
@tourismgoi
@prahladspatel
@pspoffice
#tourism
#IncredibleIndia
0
8
17
Minister of State for Civil Aviation,
@jayantsinha
: Domestic air traffic in India is likely to continue to grow faster for longer than China, because India is unlikely to build out an extensive high speed rail network as quickly as China.
#CAPASummit
#IndianAviation
0
9
15
Registration is now open for our next webinar on 'Reinventing the Airport Business Model'. CAPA India's recommendations for a new model will be pressure-tested by an expert panel including senior executives from
@CSMIA_Official
and
@BLRAirport
Register at
0
3
17
CAPA India welcomes
@MoCA_GoI
's decision to remove price floors and caps. This was long overdue. We hope that all carriers maintain a sensible pricing regime and not revert to loss-leader fares. But yield dilution is inevitable despite airlines wanting a rational market.
1
4
16
The decision by
@IndiGo6E
to lay off 10% of its staff is the beginning of a painful process for Indian aviation as things start to unravel from the impact of
#COVID19India
. It will be impossible to survive this crisis without a strong balance sheet
#IndianAviation
1
10
16
With
@IndiGo6E
planning to increase proportion of new fleet inductions in FY20 to be deployed on int'l routes from 30% to 50%, CAPA India is revising its domestic traffic growth forecast from 14-16% (as per annual outlook released in Feb-19) down to 12-14%.
#IndianAviation
0
6
16
Aircraft once again being grounded in India because of shortage of
#pilots
, as was the case 10 years ago. Only likely to increase given unprecedented aircraft induction schedule.
#indianaviation
2
11
15
As per
@AkasaAir
Founder & CEO Vinay Dube, India, as a country, can accommodate multiple players and there is space for the airline to exist along with
@IndiGo6E
and
@airindiain
.
#CIAS23
#CAPAIndia
#Indianaviation
0
4
15