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@bh359
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researcher. developer. sometimes-profitable future of france trader. 1/4 of 4AC. @Dumpster_DAO
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Yesterday, $TREE launched
Aside from one sniper who made over 100 ETH, almost every other sniper lost, buying at $2-20 before it dumped to well below 5 cents
Some thoughts on the launch, why (largely uninformed) snipers lost so much, and how it created some great opportunities
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“Who is GCR?”
The question that has confounded CT for years
Rumors have been floated around in the past (“GCR is Vivek”), but these may have it all wrong
Today, I will present evidence of another potential identity: Larry Fink
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Lots of confusion around
@sudoswap
out there lately - maybe this will help
Touches on:
- AMM vs Orderbook model
- SudoSwap architecture
- SudoSwap's position in the NFT exchange market
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Pretty insane (and clever) snipe on $CAT, ~$1.5m to ~$5m instantly
How'd it work?
- Team's multisig had 9% of the supply and $2.2m in BNB for the LP
- The team's multisig is 3/5. They sign the tx from 3 owners, which was relayed to the gnosis safe API (see image 4 for
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@michaeljburry
for those wondering where the 01 chart went next
*no personal view associated here, just a chart
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Solidity lesson of the day: When using structs as function parameters, solidity can create different function selectors for libraries vs regular contracts
Read on to learn how it works (and to see how it took me way too long to figure it out…)
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As you can see here, the evidence stacks up
Larry Fink may in fact be one of the greatest shitcoin traders of our time
Very big if true
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@0xbing
@Husslin_
@Brentsketit
@abovethebias
@hentaiavenger66
@KeemVibes
"write a short scene with dialogue where ray dalio and bridgewater get liquidated while shorting crypto and a cat named huss profits"
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@adamscochran
How are we supposed to believe that someone who thinks gas fees are dictated by "exchanges" actually knows how dApps work at a fundamental level, or is in any position to regulate them? Agreed, crypto needs regulators who understand it and can make informed decisions.
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Evidence
#2
: GCR and Larry are both rich
When GCR was shorting LUNA, it was reported that it would take the market cap of saudi aramco to liquidate him
He must have had a lot of collateral
Who else has a lot of collateral?
Blackrock
Who is the CEO of Blackrock?
Larry Fink
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@joshqharris
this is actually a well-known issue around gnosis safes, but to combat it the final owner (3rd owner in a 3/5) is supposed to submit the tx immediately rather than signing and waiting
it just looks like the cat team didn't do this - it *looks* like they signed it 3 times rather
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Worked out well last time, may finally be time to revisit $ALT
For how large a launch $EIGEN should be (~$5b fdv based on avg premarket pricing, think this may be the highest value launch since Jupiter?) and how soon it is (Sept 30th), I've not seen many mentions of it on my
< trading @ 30% of DYM's market cap, 52% fdv (don't expect this gap to go to 0, but to close a bit)
< eigenlayer narrative
< airdrop to TIA stakers in 4 days, *think* roughly 2.7% circulating supply growth; bullish unlock?
< as mentioned, noticeable relative strength
still long
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Doubters may be thinking, "This can't be, Larry Fink is not a CPA"
True enough
But perhaps he obtained a CPA under an pseudonym
A pseudonym such as Larry Milton Cooperman
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I believe $CAT is undervalued here at $140m, and should wind up trading over $300m, for a number of reasons:
- I expect binance to list it within a week, given they're supporting the floki airdrop by conducting a snapshot of floki holdings on binance on August 29th (see image 1)
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Sharing something I’ve been working on for the past couple weeks: a new trading terminal
This is my first frontend work in ~3 years, and I basically chat GPTd my way through the react & css
Backend is all Rust (API, automated strats, alerts / monitoring)
*placeholder $ amounts
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(Final shoutout to
@Tree_of_Alpha
for the platform he's built and good he's done - over $270k raised for charity, plus the community/value brought to members)
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Ramblings on some (current) onchain issues. These have been going on for a while, but have recently accelerated, and now that this rally cooled off for a second I figured I'd share some thoughts
There's a bad feedback loop happening on *specific* (not all) onchain memecoins:
-
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My first GPT-4 experiment: fishman
Rather than trying GPT-4 on Solidity, I wanted to try it out on something it had far more training on, like Python
So the goal was to build a pacman-like game. I iteratively built this using GPT-4 prompts over the course of about 30 mins
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The $75k gas fee also helped outcompete others who may have been trying to same thing - there likely wasn't only the team's tx to beat out
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A couple potential "CZ jail release" trades
CZ is scheduled to be released on Sept 29th. In a report from earlier this month, current Binance CEO Richard Teng said CZ has been banned (for life, not just 3 years) from managing or operating Binance. Although CZ is obviously still
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.
@GCRClassic
with a quick ~$1,360,000 from milady sales
- Sold 150 for 733.99 ETH over 15 different transactions
- Bought 2 more
- Now owns 150 total (still largest holder, excluding protocols)
- Notifs courtesy of
@Flip_xyz
milady
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Some updated market thoughts
General idea for me rn is the period to be bearish, especially on many alts, is starting to come to a close:
- BTC and ETH in (wide) ranges for over a month now
- Many alts been hammered, fair # down 30-40% from highs (want to see ugly charts? go
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$DMT exploited
first time seeing this happen live on a chart, thrilling experience
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One of the best tickers of this cycle now over $300m, leading the top 300 coins in the last 24h, dominating BSC dex volume, listed on bybit + OKX etc - all with the binance listing catalyst still yet to come
Thanks for playing
I believe $CAT is undervalued here at $140m, and should wind up trading over $300m, for a number of reasons:
- I expect binance to list it within a week, given they're supporting the floki airdrop by conducting a snapshot of floki holdings on binance on August 29th (see image 1)
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Some notes on ionet, render, nosana, and livepeer
I always thought of these as basically the same thing (GPU rental networks), but in reality each has a different focus and network size
Img 1: Notes
Img 2: Valuations via messari
Img 3: ionet explorer stats
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@0xHedge32
$PRIME - relative strength, obvious recent reasons
$SOL - still appealing, onchain likely to resurge. $WIF here as well
$RUNE - hit hard, burns (at least for now) still ongoing, etc
potentially: $FTM, $AR, $SEI, $STX / $ORDI, arguably AI in $TAO $RNDR $LAI / $GPT $AIOZ $FET
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Snipe on friendtech and get any unspent ETH instantly refunded, + your buys/sells don't show up on the UI
(contract courtesy of myself)
🔽
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Congrats early apes, you pushed the market cap over $300m
And this is with over 77% of the supply still sitting unclaimed in the distributor contract
The same fate of $TREE snipers likely awaits those who try to go big sniping $PUMP
Low % of total supply in LP, airdrop recipients (who, this time, have more time to claim before LP is live) ready to dump on uninformed large snipers
Don't be stupid
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@huff_language
never used huff so easily may be wrong
deposit some ETH so your addr is in the last deposit slot, then call withdraw() with msg.value equal to 0x02? so you compare the caller to whatever is in storage slot 0x02, which is your address
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Overall, the launch went as the litepaper described. The lesson to take away is that, especially if you’re playing in higher risk on-chain launches, being informed matters
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Beautiful start to H2 2024 spent on the adriatic, watching the cryptocurrency market violently reprice upwards
Now back to regularly scheduled programming
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@mrjasonchoi
everyone *is* talking about this, but sports betting and related "gambling" type games with actual liquidity
others: account abstraction/MPC/other user-friendly onboarding stuff, expressive privacy solutions, irl data on-chain with zk proofs, more regulation
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Events with a known date/time seem to be getting frontrun earlier and earlier
If you're aware of some event/news that you think should move a token's price in the future, imo it seems better NOT to bring attention to it until as close to the event as possible, especially if
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I just published a report on $SYN - although it focuses directly on Synapse, it goes into other cross-chain technologies and what the future could look like as well. Mentions competitors like Layer Zero, Multichain, IBC, and other as well.
Read here:
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These wouldn’t have mattered as much, except that the "TG bot era" has resulted in high competition for initial buys, especially on anticipated launches
(These bots allow you to specify what ETH to spend on a snipe, *regardless of what % of the token is in the initial LP*)
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Majority of recent new coins have been down only, but $IO looks potentially better
> 90m circ supply, 800m max, but emissions til Dec 24 are essentially only to compute providers (~26% supply increase)
> At $4, sits around $380m mcap, $2b fdv (premarket traded around $4 as well)
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Rather than losing your real ETH trading NFTs in a bear market, come lose fake ETH with us @
Ready to compete in Fantasy Flip?
It's free to join, and you can win awesome prizes each week + we'll have a big grand prize winner at the end of the month. Join now, and trading starts Monday!
@ledgerstatus
describes the competition more in the video!
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One transatlantic flight with no wifi later, I present a (partially complete) GOO-covered SudoSwap pricing curve
For builder humans:
Quote RT this tweet with code for an extension to our ecosystem. Your creation could involve Gobblers, Goo, novel games or protocols that integrate Gobbler assets, or anything else. Those who build the coolest stuff will get a spot on our mintlist.
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Finally found some time to flesh out my (rough/evolving) macro opinion, and to draw some conclusions about how it affects crypto. Read below:
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MOR (
@MorpheusAIs
) launches tomorrow on arbitrum, and it's going to start trading at over $1b fdv. That said, the fdv # is a bit misleading
Some launch notes:
- Goes live tomorrow at 12pm UTC via an LP on Arbitrum
- Circulating at start: ~674k MOR
- Available for claim at start:
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Well, after those hours of testing and now some googling, I figured out why:
*Libraries, rather than using the struct's types to derive the function selector, use the struct's actual name to derive it*
While the contract used RunInput's individual types, the library just used:
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@wayup2323
@ohmiebot
Basically someone sold 914,886 DAI to Olympus in exchange for $968,754 worth of OHM. That OHM will be distributed linearly to the seller over the next 5 days, and Olympus can now mint 914,886 more OHM (mostly for stakers) since each will be backed by $1
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To start, TREE’s litepaper from last week described the intended tokenomics:
50% to TREE community members, 45% to the treasury, and 5% to ToA. Of that 5%, only a portion would be used for liquidity
In block 18741993, ToA started with a small LP: 250k TREE and 10.75e (~$25k)
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This surge in buying continued, and by the time claims opened 3 blocks later, TREE was trading over $4, implying a ~$440m market cap and $800m fdv
I use tree news every day and currently hold TREE, but $4 is probably a bit high
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@0xngmi
@DegenSpartan
lmao
reminds me of
imagine being hacked for $1m and having to negotiate with someone roleplaying as a pirate to get it back
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Obviously, there were key differences between this and most on-chain launches:
- Far lower % supply in the LP (0.125%)
- No taxes or max buy limit
- Large, unlocked airdrops (claims opened 3 blocks after LP launch)
All of this was in the litepaper and (verified) TREE contract
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Knowing the info above, a few on-chain traders I talked to had opted to pass on this launch
But others did not, including a 100e block 2 buy, a 15e block 3 buy, and a 106e block 4 buy
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Same wallet opened a token account for $TRUMP (wormhole bridged) about 1hr ago. Did the same before trading $GME
imo, this puts the (already very low) odds of the $GME buyer having been kitty even lower. Seems more likely it's someone now preparing to bot a trump event, and
This wallet was freshly funded from coinbase one hour ago and bought $1.61M on $GME on sol at 20:06:28 before
@TheRoaringKitty
reddit post at 20:07:50
AKGoP8EZo8urVhmJbHS8bwfdPx4ThQ47M1Bo2KBeL642
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FTX hacker felt sorry for dumping ETH for BTC, so he'll make make up for it by dumping SOL for ETH
Selling SOL for ETH -> bridging WETH through wormhole, repeat
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What makes it tougher to time the bottom of this dump is that many of the driving factors are external to crypto, where many here (incl myself) lack edge:
- Trump odds on Polymarket are down 6% from the quoted tweet to 52% (on the bright side, perhaps these find a bottom
That speech was unbelievably bullish for crypto over the next few months
Pre-election, the market can trade on the hopes of Trump's promises (strategic BTC stockpile, crypto council, Gensler fired) while he remains the favorite
Study the months leading up to the BTC ETF
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One of these 7d TVL increase leaders has (a) a native token with room for (and historical examples of) a catch up trade to the leader's native token, and (b) an onchain meme that:
> Is the only meme on the chain over $1m mcap; established leader
> Previously ran to over $50m and
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Some notes on friendtech v2 launch:
- UI is required to claim, claim uses a merkle root so you can't just go through contract
- The UI is completely unusable, I was able to get through claiming on it, but to sell any tokens and buy rooms I had to go through etherscan. I can't
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Some rambling thoughts on this
I don't think "wow, this is why prediction market odds shouldn't be quoted as accurate" is the right takeaway. Instead, I think the takeaways are more nuanced:
1. Manipulation attempts like this open up opportunities
- Economically rational actors
1/7 Three hours ago, a group of
@Polymarket
whale accounts tried to manipulate the Presidential Election Winner market in order to profit from a derivative market on who would be leading on Friday (today)
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The same fate of $TREE snipers likely awaits those who try to go big sniping $PUMP
Low % of total supply in LP, airdrop recipients (who, this time, have more time to claim before LP is live) ready to dump on uninformed large snipers
Don't be stupid
Yesterday, $TREE launched
Aside from one sniper who made over 100 ETH, almost every other sniper lost, buying at $2-20 before it dumped to well below 5 cents
Some thoughts on the launch, why (largely uninformed) snipers lost so much, and how it created some great opportunities
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Multiple recipients attempted this, some programmatically (bundled claim + sell), and some manually (claim + sell on UI)
A few succeeded, profiting 5-6 figures
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@huff_language
don’t have computer atm so couldn’t try to beat
@transmissions11
:/
looks like someone (0x6f) interrupted him briefly though 👀
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Are the final lows in? Who knows, risks are still there. But the RR of bidding the open yesterday with how oversold we were, while the VIX fell, equities stabilized, USDJPY bounced, and CT was in a fear frenzy was too good to pass up
"People talk themselves into narratives at
Given macro markets reaction this morning, my base case is that we have bottomed
Stops set near entries on the memes, willing to roundtrip them given how great the upside is if I'm correct. On majors, will likely continue to add *if* we do make another push lower
Should
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cc
@0xfoobar
@transmissions11
@ anyone else who doesn’t ever want to bash their head against the wall for 3 hours on this
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"Our founders learned about crypto two months ago, our devs just discovered solidity, and our algo stable mechanism doesn't work yet"
investors: *crickets*
"And we plan to participate in the curve wars"
investors: Let me invest my life savings into this project right now
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Some small improvements since then:
- More news sources, more custom monitoring, LTF price alerts (1-30secs)
- Toggle for orders/positions tabs
- Positions/orders on chart
- News icons + attached image on hover (no more missing hsaka SUI charts)
- Moving backend hosting location
Sharing something I’ve been working on for the past couple weeks: a new trading terminal
This is my first frontend work in ~3 years, and I basically chat GPTd my way through the react & css
Backend is all Rust (API, automated strats, alerts / monitoring)
*placeholder $ amounts
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@HighStakesCap
@PelionCap
& more Druckenmiller on diversification, or lack thereof it (while understanding that this is not for everyone, or even 90%+ of people)
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It's been a long time since I've written anything longer-form, so I figured I'd start with an easier write before going into tougher topics in the near future
10 lessons from my little bit of experience trading crypto
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if the only rule about feeding gremlins is “never feed them after midnight”, then you technically can never feed them. it’s always after midnight
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first hamster race. lost half my deposit on a hamster that was asleep before the race started
max long milo
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miss $BALD? you need to be timezone maxxing. you need someone in every one of them. you need one person online every hour of every day, ready to vibrationally awaken the rest of the group when the next generational wealth opportunity appears
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1/10 *Call for testers*
Last year, I invested in a tournament-style fantasy sports platform called TokenTourney
They're now live in beta! And for users (for now, only US-based), there's some free $ up for grabs
Link + more details below
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Rather than writing the 762,987th post recapping 2022, I decided to pick a less-saturated market and write the 7,629th post about what to watch for in 2023
Filled with big letter words like STFX, EVM, NFT, AMM, ETH, and SUDO. Lots of small words too
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Anyways, the winners up to this point were basically:
- MEV bots same-block sandwiching some buyers who went through public mempools
- Some TG bot users who got lucky with TP/limit orders, and were able to sell right after the larger buys (some for massive profits)
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Flip points are live
You can sign up today and start earning - we’ve got some free NFTs up for grabs too
Flip’s starting a Points system to reward our most loyal users... and to get things kicked off we’re running a sweepstakes with lots of opportunities to score Flip points, get familiar with the premium features that Flip has to offer, and have a shot at winning awesome NFTs!
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To summarize:
- The huge price jump at the start was caused by large buyers competing for a small LP
- Given how large airdrop recipients' TREE was relative to the LP, a dump was bound to happen
- Within a few minutes, TREE traded at a more rational price of ~$0.20
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Not a fun way to learn this, so hopefully it can save someone else some time in the future🙏
Some more resources on this:
- Git issues and
#7523
- Stackexchange
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