Bert Hofman（郝福满）
@berthofmanecon
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Adjunct @nuseai National University Singapore. non-resident senior fellow MERICS and ASPI. Opinions my own.
Jakarta Capital Region
Joined December 2014
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A play in 3 acts.
US: “ You can’t have our chips”
China: “Ok, we won’t buy your chips”
US: “That’s economic coercion!”
Curtain.
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That is big news. New data and new method suggest India has practically eliminated extreme poverty
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China now has a net inflow of scientists. In contrast, the US, which greatly benefited from talent inflow in the past, saw an outflow in 2021. Data from
@OECD
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Team USA that just won the Math Olympics. Anyone still any issue with immigration?
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This year will see a reversal of China's catch-up with the United States in USD terms. Due to low real growth in China, modest inflation and sharp depreciation of the RMB, the gap between China and US GDP will jump from USD 5.3 Trillion in 2021 to an estimated USD 8.3 Trillion.
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Good analysis by
@CSIS
Jude Blanchette. In my view, China has underestimated the damage its unwavering partnership with Russia has done to its relationships with European nations.
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70 years of China's economic development and policies. From my presentation next week. Comments welcome!
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I am pleased to announce a new open access book edited by Frank Pieke and me, on the Communist Party of China. It's a collection of short essays by top scholars on topics ranging from party politics to ideology, economic management, social control to security and the PLA.
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So China's economy has done spectacularly well. But among the advanced economies, the US has done exceptionally well. Though the G-7 lost 15 percentage point in global share of GDP, the US's share was practically stable at 25 percent. The share of the US in G-7 economies and
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Interesting: the US has more than 6 times as much FDI in ASEAN than China has. Japan and the EU are also far larger investors. Even in terms of flows, the US outpaces China more than 3 times--USD31 billion versus USD9 billion. (source: ASEANstat).
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One of the clearest signs of
#China
's policy intent is the great rotation in credit allocation--a major shift away from real estate towards manufacturing. h/t
@ShanghaiMacro
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@giannaenglert
Economists: let’s assume Adam and Eve were utility maximizing individuals. Everything else follows.
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““The best way to prevent incidents is for other countries, especially their naval vessels and fighter jets, to not manoeuvre close to other countries’ territories. What’s the point going there? In China, we always say, ‘mind your own business’.”
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So now that President Trump got his zero interest rate from the FED, he can finally demonstrate his full array of skills in economic management.
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We are honored to welcome Mr. Kevin Rudd at the NUS Bukit Timah Campus, Friday 19 August, 5-6.30PM for a talk on his latest book: The Avoidable War.
Please register at
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Sad to learn the news of Li Keqiang’s death. I first met Li Keqiang when he was governor of Liaonign province. Then several times as part of world bank delegations when he was vice premier and premier.
He always struck me as very committed to China’s development, intellectually
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It is not that hard to start talking: lift the sanctions on China's Minister of Defense Li Shangfu. They were imposed on dubious grounds in any case (for buying arms when he was head of procurement, duh). And there is precedent: Indonesia' Prabowo was persona non-grata in the
U.S. urges China military dialogue despite rebuff to Blinken
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China's focus on "Common Prosperity" goal is not yet reflected in its tax structure. Personal income taxes are at 1.1 percent of GDP still low. here is no capital gains tax or wealth tax, and much of the revenues comes form corporate income tax, value added tax, 1/
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Some personal news: I am delighted to join later this year the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and the East Asian Institute.
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#China
's new population census put it firmly in the UN's low variant. The long term implications are big: its population will decline to below 700 mn. by the end of the century, there will be worker supporting one retiree (currently 5), and the median age will be 59 (now 38).
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So markets are down in China, Mainland as well as Hong Kong, especially on tech. This despite better than expected Q3 GDP. So is this because of the Party Congress?To me, this seems a reaction to the lack of new policy initiatives on key
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Important views on overcapacity:
China believes that:
Firstly, the issue of overcapacity should be viewed within the context of economic globalization, adhering to market economy principles and the laws of value. The so-called "overcapacity" is a manifestation of the market 1/n
Vice Finance Minister Liao Min elaborates on new consensus and outcomes reached during
@SecYellen
's visit to China and elaborates on China's stance on industrial overcapacity (where he cites two
@business
stories)
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Yellen going out of her way to promote Chinese consumption (not realizing this will be booked as Chinese exports of tourism services…)
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I know you were all eagerly waiting for it: Translation of the Main Indicators for
#China
's 14th Five Year Plan.
#TwoSessions2021
#TwoSessions
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Major shifts in destinations of greenfield FDI The chart shows regional distribution in deviation of the aggregate decline of 19 percent. A major shift away from China (even of FDI form other Asian countries) and, surprisingly, also a major decline of Chinese FDI to other Asia.
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Jiang Zemin presided over a golden time for economic reforms as well. Socialist Market Economy, Three Represents, WTO. Some argue that this was in response to Tiananmen, but I think Jiang and Zhu Rongji were simply driven by their belief that China can do better for its people.
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Extraordinary chart in the
@IMFNews
World Economic Outlook Chapter 3: Changes in shipping from Russia's ports and its destinations.
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The
@WorldBank
just released a study on the Belt and Road Initiative. It could spur economic development and reduce poverty for developing countries, but needs deep policy reforms to improve transparency, debt sustainability 1/2
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@seatedskydiver
@klaasm67
From February 11. In Dutch but the same joke. I guess it has been around.
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Interesting thread on foreign technology in the C919. Personally, I think it is great that there is so much foreign technology into this aircraft (assuming all is properly licensed). It shows globalization is working.
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Xi Jinping delivering the eulogy, just like Jiang Zemin did for Deng Xiaoping in 1997 and Hua Guofeng for Mao Zedong in 1976.
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ASEAN now beats China as destinations for OECD investment in manufacturing.
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Including discouraged workers, China’s youth out of work is more like 46 percent according to a Caixin article. The article is still up, contrary to what Nikkei/Reuters report.
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I know this is what you have been waiting for: TWO (!) TRESEs. Behind The Scenes with:
@shaymitch
&
@lizasoberano
| Netflix via
@YouTube
@BaseEntID
@netflix
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Important paper by Rodrik and Sandhu on employment and manufacturing. . Promoting manufacturing is not (no longer) a guarantee for employment creation.
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The Economist is too pessimistic. China can catch up with the US, if it implements comprehensive reforms. If not, it never will. Elitza Mileva and yours truly did some work on it, presented last year at
@FairbankCenter
.
Demographic trends and a faltering economic trajectory mean that China’s rise is levelling off. Pessimists fear that it will become more combative as a result. But a middle ground is more likely
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The
@worldbank
has just published its East Asia and Pacific Update. Here are some highlights: Despite a disappointing second quarter, China has outperformed its East Asian peers in performance since the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Just a reminder what a Big Deal the end of the Cold War was for global trade, investment, and reduction in military spending. Data: World Development Indicators and SIPRI.
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I recently gave a presentation on China's Industrial Policy. The main slides in this thread.
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@chenweihua
@CSIS
Sorry you are incorrect here. The conflict is right in the heart of Europe, and it is their greatest interest to withstand Russia’s violence, its breach of the UN charter, the OSCE agreements, the Minsk agreement.
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Advise to the US on its China strategy: next time, serve lunch
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In the Great Hall of the People. In search of a community with a shared future for mankind
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Today is 25 years ago that Thailand floated its currency, the Thai Bhat. This triggered events that became known as the Asia Financial Crisis, and which pushed countries from Indonesia to Malaysia to Korea, Russia and Brazil into a financial and economic crisis.
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New global growth projections of the World Bank. It ain’t pretty.
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@yuliamilton
When I was hired at the World Bank in Washington my grandmother asked “why so far, we have a bank here too” referring to the branch of the local savings and loan.
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Necessity is the mother of invention: China on cusp of next-generation chip production despite US curbs via
@ft
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Leaving Beijing after 4.5 years. But I will always be back...thanks to all my friends and colleagues for the great goodbyes and the great memories.
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Normally a corporate tax would do that, and the rising corporate profits would be taxed. Tax avoidance has made this hard.
@BillGates
Bill Gates says robots should pay taxes if they take your job
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The US Treasury's decision to mark China as a manipulator is not justified by the Treasury's own criteria. In fact, China misses two out of the three. And of course, China has been intervening in the market, but to keep its currency stronger, not weaker
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Following up on my
@SinicaPodcast
podcast conversation with
@KaiserKuo
() here is why I am more optimistic than most on the impact of increasing retirement age, or more general increasing participation in the labor force among elderly in
#China
.
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Development assistant in most countries mainly to own companies.
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Happy year of the dragon everybody here on Twitter!
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Masterful piece by Ryan Hass
@ryanl_hass
arguing the case for the US to keep China “entangled” in the international system. “China’s ambitions will pose a sharp challenge to the United States well into the future. The best way for Washington….”
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The book is launched! I hope you will have time to read this balanced assessment of where
#China
is on its way to becoming a technological superpower!
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A remarkable turnaround for the EU as well. Their growing science funding programs are an attraction for many!
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Very interesting discussion at the Tsinghua/Bretton Woods Commission conference in Hangzhou. One of the topics discussed is the weaponization of the dollar and international payments system. China clearly sees this as a risks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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The international flow of talent is a good predictor of future capability. E.g. it explains why the US still dominates AI (even though China's output of papers is catching up. h/t
@MacroPoloChina
for their excellent talent tracker.
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One of the fun things about teaching (at
@LKYSch
on China's Economic Reforms) is that you have to revisit some of your preconceived notions. Here are a few of my lecture slides that surprised me. 1: China's State Enterprises are minor exporters.
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I had a great time presenting at the
@FairbankCenter
last night on the topic "How Fast Can
#China
Grow?" Thanks to Winnie Yip for hosting and moderating and to
@YashengHuang
and
@WilliamHOverhol
for their great comments.
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Very good talk by
@arkroeber
at the
@FairbankCenter
. He debunks some myths on the current slowdown of China, but is not very optimistic about growth going forward, which he puts at 3-3.5 percent trend growth.
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Interesting new paper on industrial policy. The authors use machine learning to assemble a database on industrial policies 2009-2020. IP has been on the rise since 2010, is using multiple tools, and the top user of such policies is of course...Germany.
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New GDP growth projections from the
@imf
. China now at 5 percent (2024) and 4.6% (2025), both 0.4 percent higher than in the April projections.
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China government targets and outcomes 2021-24. You are welcome (and I welcome any corrections!)
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The book is open access (that is--for FREE). here is the link to the pdf:
Thanks to
@NUS_Press
for making this work. And thanks to all the great contributors:
@mcgregorrichard
@jwuthnow
@vshih2
@CSISFreeman
@wendyleutert
@J_B_C16
@paulhaenle
and more:
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Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, the Indonesian minister who led the disaster recovery after the Aceh tsunami of 2004, passed away. A most remarkable man, he set the standards for disaster relief and rebuilding for developing countries. May he rest in peace.
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I am pleased to inform you that Professor Christine Wong’s article in China: and International Journal is now open access. A must read for anybody interested in China’s fiscal reforms in the past 30 years.
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Mapping the Oldest Existing Companies in Every Country
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White House pledges 0.004 percent of ASEAN GDP to US-ASEAN cooperation.
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Happy to see my first piece for the
@AsiaPolicy
Center for China Analysis published. In it I argue that a bad second quarter does not make for “the end of the China miracle.” China’s shift to a new growth model not an easy ride, though.
What's ahead for🇨🇳econ & tech? A great body of new insights just out from
#CenterforChinaAnalysis
@AsiaPolicy
experts
@berthofmanecon
@choyleva
+ Lizzie C. Lee. Read/watch here:
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Excellent piece by
@arkroeber
for
@BrookingsInst
The New Quality Productive Forces explained, along with. Serving of history of China’s industrial policy.
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Very pleased to see this
@nuseai
@AsiaLeiden
publication on the consequences of US-China decoupling out:
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With
#China
focusing on "common prosperity" it is good to note that, after a decade of reduction in income inequality, the country is not particularly unequal for a developing country. Its wealth inequality is also below the world average. (sources: POVCALNET, Credit Suisse)
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Gorgeous day for a walk with
@jamescrabtree
at Houhai. Of course we discussed the new quality productive forces!
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The US was, unfortunately, in the lead in imposing harmful measures. These include of course the Trump Tariffs, but also the Biden restrictions on technology.
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Remarkable: World Bank President Malpass to G-20 "I’m calling on the G20 Leaders to allow the poorest countries to suspend all repayments of official bilateral credit until the WB and the IMF have made a full assessment of their reconstruction and financing needs."
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judges. Ironically, the EU now plans to do what it accuses China of—subsidizing battery production. And many EU countries give or gave tax benefits to buyers of electric vehicles, much like China did. The EU has now started an investigation into China’s subsidies but it is
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In Hangzhou with the Tsinghua/Bretton Woods Committee conference on 80 years after Bretton Woods. Zhu Min and Marc Uzes have brought together a great group of thinkers to discuss reforms in the international financial and monetary system.
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This was indeed the problem in Wuhan and Hubei. Through inaction early on, every patient showed up (almost) all at once....Please let other countries have that lesson in mind.
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Word Bank projects 2.8 percent GDP growth for China (3.2 ADB, 3.3 IMF).
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In Dutch, but this quote deserves translation: “some compare China’s industrial policy with throwing spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks and invest more in it. What makes China special is that they have a lot of spaghetti”
@EmmersDorien
en ik nemen het Chinese industriebeleid onder de loep in
@tijd
: "Het wordt weleens vergeleken met spaghetti gooien naar een muur, kijken wat blijft plakken en daarin verder investeren."
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My presentation at the CICC Institute this morning.
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A clear advantage the US has over China is in corporate R&D spending. US companies dominate the top-100 spenders.
@Huawei
is the exception at place 3. Companies like
@AlibabaGroup
,
@TencentGlobal
and
@Baidu_Inc
are next, but spend far less than their US peers, which
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My review of
@IsabellaMWeber
’s “How China Escaped Shock Therapy” now up in the China Journal”
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