Barry Burden
@bcburden
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Professor of Political Science @uwmadison . Director of @electionscenter . First gen college grad. Native Ohioan. Also
Madison, WI
Joined June 2009
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We should definite improve civics education in country. But it’s the elected officials with Harvard, Stanford, & Yale law degrees who are accelerating the system’s backsliding.
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Appears that at least 1 out of every 100 Americans participated in
#WomensMarch
today.
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In other Wisconsin news today, the state posted the official 2018 Assembly election results. It's a beautiful gerrymander. Dems got 190,000 more votes but Reps got 63/99 seats. Key is assuring many GOP districts get just over 50% of vote even in a bad year for the party.
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It would be fine if Wisconsin was in the news a little less often.
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Rather than offer a gymnasium or other large campus spaces for voting, we will be packing students onto shuttle buses to make it the city’s problem.
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Many factors affect voter turnout, but what Miss. & Wisc. have in common is implementation of strict voter ID law before 2016 election.
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SCOTUS majority says Wisconsin voters must either vote in person tomorrow or get their absentee ballots postmarked tomorrow to count. There are no other options now. There is still a backlog of absentee requests to process. Those ballots will presumably all be wasted.
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Something remarkable happened in this Wisconsin election. This doesn't happen.
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Can we stop requiring that citations for books include the city where the publisher is located? I’ve been hunting on a publisher site for 10 minutes now. Can I just write Stars Hollow, CT or Pawnee, IN?
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Positive test rate among UW students has gone from 1% to 7.8% in just 7 days.
No evidence of spread among faculty & staff or through on-campus activity.
Chancellor calls for "severe limits" on in-person undergrad interactions for 2 weeks. This is make or break.
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The redder the state, the farther Trump is running behind Romney.
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The 2020 election is one year from today.
Let’s hope the election is resolved quickly & cleanly on Nov 3 but maintain the patience & sensibility of a mature democratic society if the counting goes into overtime.
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Course evaluation question: Did you find the classroom climate inclusive?
Student:
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Gavin Newsom will not be the running mate because the ticket cannot be comprised of 2 individuals from the same state.
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The public's ideological tastes usually shift like a "thermostat" away from the part of the president.
Heading into the 2024 election, it doesn't seem to be happening with Biden (yet).
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With a couple days to reflect on the opinion, I'm still flabbergasted: the 7th Circuit concluded that essentially any partisan manipulation of election laws is constitutional. Court also believes that the harmed party can overcome the rules and simply change things back.
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Bigger gender gap in VA exit polls than we've seen in other states, but the age gap is monstrous. Sanders wins 58% of 17-29 group while Biden wins 71% of 65+. Different worlds.
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Bucket list achievement unlocked
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Nearly every political scientist agrees that the House of Representatives is too small (and term limits are a bad idea).
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Proud to submit this amicus brief with 23 other political scientists asking the US Supreme Court to strike down partisan
#gerrymandering
.
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It is hard to overstate this news after 12 years of drama & litigation (TM) in Wisconsin over partisan gerrymandering
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In my 2 hours of observing polls on campus today 75-80% of voters appear to be female. Same during early voting last week. Bananas.
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I mostly want to know how a political scientist lives to be 220.
What a 220-year-old French political scientist can teach us about today's economy
Via
@Mercatus
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Eager
@UWMadison
voters lined up
@WisconsinUnion
on the final day of early voting in Wisconsin
#BadgersVote
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On an unseasonably warm December Friday afternoon before the Christmas holiday weekend, in a 4-3 vote the Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down state legislative maps as violating the state constitution. New maps must be in place for the 2024 elections. 1/
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Wisconsin Dems were in the dumps in 2016. GOP had the governorship, state leg, & Supreme Court from 2011 onward. Walker won a bruising recall. They lost Feingold. Trump sealed their misery when he won the state.
The party has clawed back a great deal in the last 5 years.
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For the record, Evers got 9% of his votes from Madison.
.
@SenFitzgerald
releases a statement after the extraordinary session vote. "Citizens from every corner of Wisconsin deserve a strong legislative branch that stands on equal footing with an incoming administration that is based almost solely in Madison."
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#WIRecount
Day 5 (excluding Milwaukee County):
- 41% of units done
- Trump +88 votes
- Clinton +69 votes
- Stein +37 votes
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Amazing thread. Santos is the story that just keeps giving.
🧵Being the person that I am (weird), I decided to my time off to dive into George Santos' FEC reports to get a better understanding of how he spent his $$$, especially the $700k that he "loaned the campaigned." Note I don't think he actually did. Here is what I found:
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I was not aware of Griffin or Trump’s endorsement of him until seeing DeGette’s presentation.
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Somehow ALL of the Dems are going down simultaneously.
O'Rourke might be only clear exception
Getting very mixed messages on Sanders & Warren from one poll to the next (ranging from 10-20%!)
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Of the 140 pages of lame duck legislation being sent to the governor, the only one Republicans actually campaigned on was protecting pre-existing conditions. It did not pass.
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If you took Madison out of the state there would be essentially no economic growth in Wisconsin.
WOW--The guy who orchestrated the GOP power grab in Wisconsin suggested Madison & Milwaukee (& their black residents) are not legitimate parts of the state. “If you took Madison & Milwaukee out of the state election formula, we would have a clear majority”
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Man who is spending tax dollars without a contract & who regularly speaks at partisan events spent the day criticizing election officials over — yes — contracting & being influenced by partisan actors.
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An excellent rundown of what to expect about vote tabulation next week.
Punchline: some states will count faster than you think and the initial counts won't necessarily tilt toward Biden.
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How is it possible that deploying 2,400 National Guard did not increase the number of polling places in Milwaukee above 5 (out of 180 they normally have)?
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Trump's approval rating appears be falling since the election.
Ipsos: 43% (11/4-5) -> 39% (11/8-10) -> 37% (11/13-17)
YouGov: 46% (11/8-10) -> 43% (11/15-17)
Rasmussen(!): 53% (11/8-10) -> 49% (11/16-18)
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County canvasses and a random audit are happening now. As they do after every election. In full view of the public. I encourage legislators to observe.
Vos: "I would rather guarantee that everyone at the end of the day has certainty that the election was conducted fairly because we do a thorough investigation as opposed to trusting a bunch of bureaucrats in Madison saying, ‘Look, we did it just fine.’ ”
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A majority of eligible voters participated in every state in 2020, the first time that happened since at least 1980. It's not a Democratic or Republican thing.
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Late arriving ballots would not be a problem in Wisconsin.
A federal court permitted ballots to be received up to 6 days after the spring primary. Nothing happened (besides counting an additional 79,000 ballots).
The state doesn’t even certify the results until Dec 1.
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One of the lawsuits filed over absentee ballots in PA starts with the following "intorduction."
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Better headline: Incompetent contractors hunting for vote fraud in Arizona end their operations in disgrace
The Controversial Election Review In Arizona Confirms Biden's Win
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The pro-Republican bias is due to both clustering of Dem voters in urban areas & intentional efforts by Republicans to gerrymander. The 2016 presidential vote (where uncontested races are not an issue) shows Trump carried 63/99 districts despite barely winning popular vote.
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That’s my wife’s sorority paddle, thank you very much. (Also delighted to get room eater treatment.)
Good angle. Depth. Mismatched frames. At some point it becomes time to put away the frat paddle. 7/10
@bcburden
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This is a sad development for UW but an understandable move by Becky Blank that will allow her to lead a world class university without a state legislature getting in the way:
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Super group of 3 junior REP scholars coming soon to
@UWMadison
!
*
@AnaLuisaOaxaca
(UCLA)
* Marty Davidson (Michigan)
*
@_thaWRIGHTway
(Northwestern)
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Harris had the second most liberal voting record in the US Senate. To be fair, she was representing one of the bluest states in the country.
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Proud of our
@uwmadison
students whose COVID tests are coming up positive only about 1% of the time while the state rate is near 20%.
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Can we just agree that…
* APSA has not handled this well — esp comms
* people with good (even the same) values can reach different decisions about attending the mtg
* the mtg is valuable for many people of different ranks but also a mixed bag or unhelpful to many others
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That gerrymandering is an old practice is not a convincing reason to keep it. Slavery & non-secret ballot were also legal in early US.
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In my survey of Wisconsin election officials, almost 80% wanted to allow -- if not require -- drop boxes to collect ballots. When the data are weighted to reflect the population, 94% of clerks supported drop boxes.
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A new report from me on administration of the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin reveals just how successful it was. 1/8
Report here:
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The last time midterm election turnout was this high, US senators had just become directly elected & women did not have a universal right to vote.
@ElectProject
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This is really dumb. Same day registration ought to be embraced by both parties. SDR facilitates voter participation, keeps voter rolls up to date, & may be the most public and secure method of registration there is.
Montana's Senate is supporting a bill that would end same-day voter registration. The bill to end voter registration at noon on the Monday prior to Election Day was endorsed 32-18 on second reading Tuesday.
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A proper example of election uniformity is having identical voter registration rules across the state.
A misguided & disingenuous form of “uniformity” is allowing only 1 ballot dropbox per community even though they have vastly different populations. That’s discrimination.
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This headline buries the lede. Younger cohorts are almost always more independent. What jumps out is the heavy Democratic/liberal tilt of Millenials.
Millennial voters continue to have the highest proportion of independents of any generation.
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Update: 21 states appear to have exceeded 70% turnout THIS YEAR. That is equal to the total number in the 70% club from 1980 to 2016.
Which states join the voter turnout hall of fame this year?
Since 1980 there have been 510 pres elections in the states & DC. Only 21 of those had turnout of 70% or more.
State leaders in the 70% club are MN (6x), ME (4x), NH (4x), & WI (3x).
(h/t
@ElectProject
)
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Chef’s kiss to one AP writer:
“A streaker wearing a hot pink onesie eluded security and slid into the end zone with 5:03 left in the game. Kansas City’s high-powered offense never got that far against Tampa’s ferocious defense.”
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High quality discussant comments don’t get the recognition they deserve. We give out quite a few “best paper” awards each year. How about an award or two for “best discussant?”
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A thread on the challenges to the democratic elections in Wisconsin, which have spanned from skeptical to kooky to dangerous, as reported in today's NYT 1/6
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Looking forward to serving on the brand new Dane County Redistricting Commission, a potential model for how to draw legislative districts using a nonpartisan, citizen-driven process.
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Former state supreme court justice being paid by state to investigate the 2020 election does not know "how elections work."
He's also issuing subpoenas w errors, falsely offering immunity, & leaking his work to a conservative radio talk show host.
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My students sometimes think a 1,000-word paper is daunting but I just saw a post on NextDoor that long. It was one sentence. About a cat.
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Assuming Harris is nominated by the end of the Dem convention, I don't see any serious legal hurdles with ballot access or campaign funding.
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Folks, let's just ignore those real-time probabilities. NYT says FL >95% for Trump. DDHQ has 35% for Trump.
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@jlazarus001
Old joke: a Type III error is not remembering the difference between the other two types.
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@SeanTrende
Some good points in the article but it exists in a make believe world where the Dobbs decision had no effect on the midterms
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None of this is true.
“In Wisconsin, somebody has to be indefinitely confined in order to vote absentee. In the past there were 20,000 people. This past election there were 120,000...and Republicans were locked out of the vote counting process.”
@VicToensing
@newsmax
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The madness continues.
The election was 9 months ago.
The 2 biggest counties in the state went through full recounts.
There is another audit & an “investigation” underway.
Sowing distrust in a settled election is dangerous and was one of the steps toward the insurrection.
Republican lawmaker seeks to seize ballots and voting machines in Milwaukee and Brown counties
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Finally got Disney+ just to watch Hamilton and you people are right about it not being an accurate version of history
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Among the surprises for me tonight are how much Trump’s endorsements mattered & how willing GOP voters were to walk away from the Scott Walker version of their party
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If college campuses abandon in-person learning this fall, it’s going to really complicate voting for students just as deadlines are hitting for registering to vote & requesting absentee ballots.
#BadgersVote
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OK, team, let's do the big campaign announcement speech outside in Minnesota in February. What could go wrong?
(Actually all of the speakers handled the weather pretty well.)
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With 17 other academic election experts, today I filed a Supreme Court brief on the Wisconsin gerrymandering case:
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Until a few years ago Wisconsin law actually allowed absentee ballots to arrive as late as the Friday after the election.
SCOTUS is not allowing the state to offer an extension again during a *pandemic.*
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Wisconsinites: Think your vote doesn't matter? We've had 2 statewide recounts in 7 years and are looking at another possibility tonight.
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Kudos to
@MULawPoll
for nailing the Biden-Sanders split at 62-34 (currently sitting at 64-31 with 85% reporting) despite a totally unprecedented and unsettled situation.
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It's illegal to return a ballot using a drop box in Wisconsin, but this weekend I used one to submit state employee benefits forms. There's another box right next to it to receive state tax documents. Both are secure & available 24/7.
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The transformation is more remarkable than it initially seems. The vast majority of absentee ballots this time around were cast by mail. In previous elections, most "absentees" were actually cast in person.
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Born in Madison, Wisconsin:
- Tammy Baldwin (1962)
- Kris Kobach (March 1966)
- Liz Cheney (June 1966)
- Stacey Abrams (1973)
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Turnout by age in 2014 and 2016 shows reliability of older voters in midterm years (like the one coming up next year).
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The final grievance about King George III in the Declaration of Independence: “He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us.”
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Agree that this should be covered nationwide: *partisan* legislators are planning to remove *nonpartisan* election official who are supported by *bipartisan* commissions...without a single hearing.
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Regarding the possible
#Schultz2020
bid, remember that minor party candidates of all stripes tend to do best among young people. Given the strong tilt of young people today, almost any 3rd option would hurt Dems more than GOP.
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