athe_red
@athe_red
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I make maps of French elections. Also a history nerd. Je fais des cartes des élections en France. Médiéviste repenti, normie de gauche. 🏳️🌈
Languedoc, France
Joined November 2017
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One of the most varied dpts in France, Bouches-du-Rhône unsurprisingly has a contrasted political landscape.
-Le Pen did best in small towns, the Marseille suburbs and industrial areas
-Mélenchon in cities (Marseille especially)
-Macron around Aix and in some wealthy areas
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@greg_price11
She was specifically asked to explain it in the simplest terms possible, but don't let that get in the way of whatever point you're trying to make
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What happens if you take just the left of Macron votes and the right of Macron votes?
Massive urban/rural polarisation, that's what happens.
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@IndieWire
"Hey fellow queers you HAVE to be cute and tender, you're not allowed to be rough sexy or just not confirm with my views about what you should be like."
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@biglyradder
The bar is literally "don't make children homeless" but apparently that's too high
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@turdfergthird
@IANCOGNEATO
Not sure if this is a joke but this is because of protests after a group of Kurdish people were murdered by a self-described racist
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1974 was the closest presidential election in French history. Giscard d'Estaing, a center-right pro-EU reformist, narrowly defeated Mitterrand, a socialist also supported by the communist party.
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An update on my ratings, about 1/4 in
Ranges out of 144 seats:
⚫️ RN- 73-40
🟡 Ens! 63-23
🔴 FP 53-23
Reminder that this is an unpredictable election, and that we're very early in the campaign.
The question isn't "will I be wrong," it's "how wrong will I be, and where?"
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@yothisaintavibe
Begging people to realize that speaking multiple languages is not only possible, it's been (and still is) the norm in many societies
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@adriaeln
What I love about Notre Dame conspiracies is that their premice is always "the government is covering it up because they don't want to offend Muslims (who obviously did it)"...
...which is like the exact opposite of what every French government would do in that situation
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@cheer_wine
I may be stupid but I was 100% born queer and will not stand for progressives bringing back that kind of rhetoric
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Attention: les chiffres du ministère de l'intérieur (E! en tête de 0.11) ne comptent pas les candidats LFI ou autres à l'outremer comme NUPES, alors qu'il le font pour ceux d'E!.
Si on les compte, NUPES est en tête de 0.29
C'est justifiable, mais ça fausse un peu le tableau
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Zemmour might have the worst visibility/votes ratio in recent history.
For those not in France, it's hard to overstate how dominant Zemmour was. On tv, online, in the press, in everyone's narratives...
A look at his campaign, and a few reasons why it failed/x
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Taking another break.
So far, out of 392 seats :
⚫️ RN et alliés: 197-82
🔴 Front Populaire: 146-52
🟡 Ensemble pour la république: 163-46
🔵 Les Républicains (non RN): 55-36
🟣 LIOT, DVD, DVG, Reg, etc...: 16-12
Hourly reminder that this is an unpredictable election
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@treenis69
@cheer_wine
The narrative that "born this way" is just a rhetorical tool is also extremely damaging and retroactively justifies plenty of old school homophobic/transphobic rhetoric.
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I'm still hoping to do the overseas and Corsica later, but here it is: the 2022 presidential election, by EPCI
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With 289 seats done, I'm calling it a night. I'll continue tomorrow, here's my current ratings (including a few changes based on comments I got).
Once again, we're early in the campaign of an unpredictable election: things will change, and things will be wrong!
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The old mining bassin stands out
In 2022, incumbent E. Macron defeated M. Le Pen by a 5.5 million vote margin, a little over half his 2017 landslide.
Macron carried just under 48% of communes, but netted huge margins out of cities, suburbs, and the west, and remained competitive in much of rural France.
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In 1965, Charles de Gaulle won the Seine departement by 5%, doing best in the city of Paris. Socialist challenger François Mitterrand did best in the suburbs.
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My first attempt at a map using QGIS: round 1 of the 2022 presidential election, by commune
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In 2022, incumbent E. Macron defeated M. Le Pen by a 5.5 million vote margin, a little over half his 2017 landslide.
Macron carried just under 48% of communes, but netted huge margins out of cities, suburbs, and the west, and remained competitive in much of rural France.
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In 1981 and 2012, socialist challengers (Mitterrand and Hollande) defeated right-wing incumbents (Giscard d'Estaing and Sarkozy) by almost idential margins (3.52 and 3.28%). Here's how every departement shifted between 1981 and 2012
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In Haute-Savoie, the NFP are leading the popular vote without carrying a single constituency (they're finishing 2nd everywhere and LR-RN are counted separately)
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@EuropeElects
A lot of people are using this to say joining NUPES was a bad idea...
...but without the alliance they'd have lost even more seats
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@CentipedeMouse
@PopulismUpdates
People just clicking at random because they neither know nor care
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@yothisaintavibe
Begging people to realize that speaking multiple languages is not only possible, it's been (and still is) the norm in many societies
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@SocDoneLeft
"Yes but some people really act like they want a trophy..."
Call me a hack but I would give every single fascist a trophy if that's what it took for them to stop being fascists
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@EmeraldCastle
@keiztrat
@image_origins
It's not scientific but the comparison with astrology doesn't work. MBTI just puts people into categories based on their actual traits, astrology randomly assigns traits based on their birthdate
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@spectatorindex
"If you join the alliance meant to stop us from hurting you, we will hurt you"
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@Soy_cracker
@biggestjoel
If it had been told by an actual Spartan they wouldn't have mocked the Athenians for being gay, and if anything would have bragged about being even gayer
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And here it is! Round one of the 2017 presidential election, by commune
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@Jose13NEO
@TreVolte
@Queereon
@FalKoopa_
That's mostly because historians are very cautious people who hate being speculative, but I think part of it is also that people really hate the idea of colored statues and want them to look ugly.
We have actual roman paintings that have survived and they're far more nuanced
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In Ruffin's district, the Ensemble! candidate is withdrawing and endorsing him.
« Je ne confonds pas adversaire politique et ennemi de la République. »
Ce soir, j’annonce retirer ma candidature au profit de François Ruffin pour faire barrage au Rassemblement national.
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Macron easily carried Loire-Atlantique in 2022, finding success throughout the departement, but getting his best results in the northern suburbs of Nantes.
Mélenchon came second, carrying the city of Nantes and its southern suburbs.
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I tried to calculate what the resuts by département might look like.
Based on current polling, 2019 results, and the 2017-2022 trend (for RN, RE and LFI).
Quite a shocking map, but the kind of results you'd expect when one party has a +15% lead nationwide.
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The 2019 European parliament election, by National Assembly district.
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The results in Île-de-France sure are something:
RN 18,8%
LFI 18,6%
PS 15,8%
RE 15,5%
LR 8,8%
EELV 7,0%
R! 5,7%
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On a beaucoup parlé de la 1ere circonscription du Vaucluse, et souvent de manière contradictoires.
Victoire RN assurée ou rare perte un soir de victoire ?
Défaite du FP par sa division, sa radicalité, un malheureux parachutage, ou basculement choc ?
Petit profil de la circo.
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@Speeding_max
@LillianBelle2
They still think they're a major party. Also many in LR are closer to Le Pen and Zemmour than Macron.
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> Gets elected president
> Consistently has under 20% approval rating
> Doesn't run for re-election, remains undefeated
> Becomes 3rd most popular politician in the country
> Refuses to elaborate further
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@FreeTradeShill
-Very little media coverage before round 1. Le Pen always does poorly when she's in the spotlight.
-With Zemmour out of the picture, Le Pen is once again the most far-right candidate
-Polls underestimated the left and overestimated the right in round 1, adjusting for that
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@varadmehta
Per this same poll, 52% of PA thinks he's doing at least a "fair job"
Wording is everything.
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The 1981 election was a 4-way race, with the right and left both having two major candidates.
UDF incumbent Giscard d'Estaing and PS François Mitterrand qualified for the runoff, leading to a rematch of the 1974 election.
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Right now, Marine Le Pen is probably in the strongest position of her politial career. But 6 months ago, it looked like her career may be over.
What happened? Let's find out. 1/
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@PopulismUpdates
To hold the senate in 2024 dems have to:
-hold the senate this midterm, ideally get to 51
-hold all their swing state incumbents (AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI)
-win 2 of the following: MT, OH, TX, WV (3 if they only get 50 seats this midterm)
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In round 1 of the 2012 presidential race, challenger François Hollande and incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy qualified for the runoff, which Hollande would go on to win.
2012 was also saw Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon run for president for the first time.
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Who came first in the first round of the legislative elections?
tl;dr! it's messy but NUPES won by 0.29 using the less biased metric 1/8
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@EligeMemes
Fwiw I'd read the name as meaning "the death of the Jews" rather than "death to Jews", though both translations are correct.
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@SpecialPuppy1
Macron's re-election platform (raising pension age, conditionning benefits on activity) is super unpopular among left-wing voters, who are increasingly less likely to see him as the "lesser evil".
Also Zemmour has made Le Pen look more moderate.
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A bastion of the right, Alpes-Maritimes saw Le Pen come first and was Zemmour's best departement, though he didn't cary any precints.
Macron put up a solid performance, strongly improving relative to 2017.
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@KenGardner11
Setting aside how fucked up the situation is, this has to be one of the funnies cycles ever.
The libs actually welcomed them, but everyone already had their "libs are the real racist" tweets pre-written so decided to post them anyway
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@JackQuinnLAC
-anti immigration (Mayotte has massive immigration from the Comores)
-muslim, very conservative
-nationalist tendency because of the Comores claiming the island
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@bowserhunt2004
Wisconsin and later Michigan flipping are the last things I remember before falling to sleep
I think I spent +30 consecutive hours awake that day
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Éric Zemmour, when asked about his poor performance among working class voters, replied that they were "illiterate".
🔴⚡️ Interrogé sur l'incapacité de Reconquête à parler à un électorat populaire, Éric Zemmour rétorque :
« Les classes populaires sont analphabètes. »
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Hérault is a land of contrasts. Le Pen narrowly carried the departement thanks to her strong margins along the mediterranean, while Mélenchon won Montpellier by a landslide, and also carried the mountains of the north. Macron, meanwhile did best in the suburbs of Montpellier.
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@PopulismUpdates
Fun fact, they legally changed their last name from Bonaparte to Napoléon to avoid every single male in the family being called Napoléon
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Once a left-leaning "swing departement", Aisne went for Le Pen by a landslide in 2022, being her strongest departement as in 2017.
She got her best results in rural precincts of the north, but St Quentin, the biggest urban center (56K inhabitants), put her in first place.
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@Itsatraaaaaap
@MKVRiscy
Okay but the current consznsus among food historians is that French Fries actually were invented in France, not Belgium.
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Elections in the 1960s be like
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@JoePostingg
Sounds like the title of a 1930s pseudo-scientific pamphlet written by a nazi collaborator
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@JoePostingg
I'm pretty sure every single major piece of media that helped raise awareness towards a marginalized group ends up being reread as bigotted towards that group
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The amount of times a departement has voted for a woman in round 2 of a presidential election.
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@FanofMinnesota
"The left got a little too bad at winning elections so I changed all my views on the economy, taxes, society, immigration, government..."
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Rhône, home to the Lyon metropolis, put Macron in first position in 2022, the incumbent president finding success throughout the departement.
Mélenchon came 2nd, doing well in parts of Lyon and some suburbs. Le Pen came a distant 3rd, carrying a few rural communes.
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My ratings, about 2/3rds in.
Ranges:
RN and allies: ⚫️ 114-54
Front Populaire: 🔴 101-37
Ensemble: 🟡 95-32
LR: 🔵13-7
others: 🟣 11-7
Once again, this is an unpredictable election. I'm obviously doing my best but I'll likely be wrong in plenty of surprising ways !
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The right "only" wins by a 7% margin, about the same as Sarkozy's win in 2007, but the map looks completely different.
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2022 presidential, but only left-of-Macron and right-of-Macron parties count (and run as two blocks)
Right-of-Macron parties win by just over 7% (53.6% vs 46.4%), a margin very close to the 2007 election. The map, however, looks nothing like 2007
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It's about this time last year that we started getting gems like this
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2002 was a disaster for the PCF: it didn't just fall below the 5% threshold, it wasn't even the largest communist party anymore.
PCF candidate Robert Hue (3,4%) fell behind Lutte Ouvrière's Arlette Laguiller (5,7%) and the LCR's Olivier Besancenot (4,2%)
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@JohnRSamuelsen
@RalstonReports
I'm no expert on Nevada but this seems incredibly good for Rs
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