Andrew Lilley
@andrewlilley_au
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All views personal & unsanctioned, most of all when I've made a graph.
Joined May 2013
@joshuakralizec @Mark_Graph This is a matter of definition. On a (new houses)/current population Metric Australia is great On a change in (houses per population) Australia is not. The latter is what matters, due to pop growth. See here
@BenPhillips_ANU @the_daily_graph @swrighteconomy The graphs that i think are pointless for inferring scarcity on this topic are the ones which show the change in housing supply over two years, divided by the population at a fixed year.
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@PinguCapital @MikeBromley15 Yeah I'd say every time it went up 30% over two years that we should treat that as a black swan, the same way as the 30% declines would be regarded as a black swan because this was unanticipated. In Australia we've had many +30% 2yr events and (I think) zero -30% events.
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@MikeBromley15 @PinguCapital I agree with both of you in principle but I treat the uncertainty as symmetric. Maybe the population declines and there's a supply overhang. Maybe life expectancy goes to 120 and there's a supply glut. Some black swans go the other way.
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@DrCameronMurray Aha by definition yes... but the point is you cannot enjoy any of the other things without a house. So if forced to, you would spend close to your whole budget on it. Same as if there was one loaf of bread available for a month etc.
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@seanyboi25 @TMFScottP Both predominantly immigration. Florida has ~1/3 more retirees than Australia proportionally.
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@RichardfromSyd1 @TMFScottP Yes indeed Supply constraints, zoning, etc Hmm probably the ACT recently
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@PinguCapital In Ireland real house prices are back to their peak at the height, so it seems more likely the "bust" had an irrationally low/lending constrained price. In Japan seems like it was hard to understand how quickly rental scarcity disappears when the population starts to decline.
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Australia's house price to income ratio is a mark of bad policy and difficult politics, and unfortunately not a bubble
@TMFScottP The reason why Florida's rental vacancy rate never goes below 7%, with consistently more immigration than Australia, is good housing policy. Has Sydney been at 7% at any point in the last 2 decades? We've had many years of near zero population growth, so can't be last yrs growth!
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@bennpeifert For the yada yada More tech stocks with >10% monthly returns in the last few years means Strategy won’t have worked but visually the gap still grows in levels, even though it’s shrinking in proportions.
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RT @ben_golub: thoughtful thread on a lot of the economics that still hasn't seeped into technologists' writing not endorsing it as correc…
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@stevehind That is great, so good to see more Aus tech startups. Seems given the talent vs pay ratio differential with the US there should be far more here.
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