Ben Phillips
@BenPhillips_ANU
Followers
9,123
Following
5,570
Media
1,269
Statuses
17,601
Economics, stats, social policy, microsimulation. Associate Professor at ANU Centre for Social Policy Research
Canberra
Joined September 2010
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Cardiff
• 49591 Tweets
Osimhen
• 47837 Tweets
本イベント
• 36125 Tweets
Cataluña
• 34292 Tweets
#ConversexFourth
• 29504 Tweets
広瀬めぐみ参院議員
• 28633 Tweets
FOURTH RUN STAR
• 27751 Tweets
10m Air Pistol Mixed Team
• 27256 Tweets
家宅捜索
• 19951 Tweets
強化プログラム
• 17085 Tweets
Gallagher
• 16837 Tweets
議員辞職
• 16120 Tweets
मीटर एयर
• 15141 Tweets
ナージャ
• 13491 Tweets
パッチノート
• 11568 Tweets
RECARO
• 11465 Tweets
#SarabjotSingh
• 11240 Tweets
#IndiaAtParis2024
• 10725 Tweets
One unfortunate outcomes of doubling the cost of Arts degrees (female dominated) is that many women will continue paying HECS (up to 10% of income) at the same time as paying childcare fees and therefore adding to effective tax rates and lowering workforce incentives for women.
79
950
3K
Still can’t believe the ABC took Lateline off air. Was there a better current affairs program?
200
227
2K
Poverty rates are highest for single parents (36%) and singles (23%). Why must we focus on ‘working families’ when concerning ourselves with cost of living pressures? Couples w kids lowest poverty rate at 8%.
56
451
2K
The requirement for many of the 1.2 million Jobseeker recipients to apply for 20 jobs a month must be one of the most costly tick-a-box/red tape exercises for both recipient and business.
77
319
1K
Just interrupting your scrolling with an ad for generous parental leave for dads. It’s good! Thanks ANU!
28
68
1K
Lots of talk of using super to help buy a first home. However, Typical super balance of a 25-34yo renter is just $13,500 (ABS 2017).
84
194
1K
Reckon my local high school’s sports facilities could do with a $54m upgrade.
49
136
1K
ANU modelling shows the budget’s cost of living package provides more relief to top 20% than bottom 20%.
70
542
988
COVID payments lowered poverty rate of Newstart recipient households from 67% to less than 7%
38
351
953
‘2-3% inflation target has no science behind it, pulled out of thin air’ says Joseph Stiglitz
#abc730
51
150
737
90% of franking credits went to the top 20% of wealth households. Virtually nothing to the bottom half. Surprised more wasn’t made of this prior to the election
79
406
711
One of the silliest features of our tax and transfer system is that we spend roughly the same on superannuation concessions and excess franking credits (mostly wealthy people) as the age pension (~$50b pa).
27
222
719
Suspect what many don’t understand about JobSeeker is that increasingly the payment isn’t going to those briefly between jobs but those who are old, disabled, single mums, mental health issues, or on the fringe of society. Beyond the rate JS isn’t really fit for purpose.
46
153
667
NSW COVID cases continue on the simple exponential growth path for the moment. Exponential growth model predicted 1240 today and NSW got 1218.
63
240
661
Hard to believe Arts/Humanities courses are now full-fee at public universities. Does this indicate public benefit of studying society is 0?
43
100
612
Welfare payments in oz actually at a near 30 year low
47
577
491
23/24FY
Retiree couple $3m super say $150k income 0 tax paid + health care card + possible excess Franking Credits.
Working age couple w kids $150k incomes ~$33k tax no $ benefits + considerably greater GST
104
94
502
A million Australians on the $629pf jobseeker payment. 1/3rd lower than age pension. Set around $250 < poverty line. This should get more attention. Unlike most problems has a simple solution.
15
147
498
Boosting JobSeeker the most effective way to tackle poverty - my latest piece in
@ConversationEDU
40
194
482
The most financially disadvantaged Australians are the over 2 million adults on working age payments (Jobseeker, disability, parenting, Carer etc) can’t think of a budget for decades that did anything significant for them.
11
146
477
Increasingly convinced Australia focuses too much on economic stats and should concern itself as much with social statistics such as the reality of 1/3 young women with mental health issues. A healthier society is also a healthier economy.
22
113
480
It’s a shame none of the hundreds of humanities researchers at our top unis were available for comment.
18
86
466
Ironically private universities get Jobkeeper but public universities are ‘large corporates’.
PM
@ScottMorrisonMP
likens universities to ‘large corporates’, in response to a question on why most Unis are not eligible for JobKeeper.
#abc730
196
106
374
11
197
442
Almost finished my 6 month paternity leave stint with this little cutie. Thanks
@ourANU
its good! Blokes if you get the chance do it!
11
24
414
What’s the logic in having folks with $5m+ in super paying next to no tax while someone on $50k with kids pays a marginal rate of 34.5%?
Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers has pushed back on calls to cap super balances at $5 million, saying that reforming superannuation taxes is not a priority.
4
5
6
51
76
396
A strange look for Uni of Melb to have the Menzies Inst loaded with largely non-academic ex-libs... just as a similar institute for say a Hawke Inst loaded with labor hacks would be inappropriate.
55
108
395
There’s no good reason why public housing can’t be existing housing rather than newly built. Cheaper, quicker and salt and peppered.
43
45
381
83% of excess franking credits go to top 20% of wealth distribution. Virtually nothing bottom 50%. New ANU research for
@TheAusInstitute
25
217
382
We could boost the welfare budget from $145b to $150b pa and relieve the welfare system of its most obvious and damaging weakness - an inadequate JobSeeker payment.
17
127
356
Rarely mentioned/overlooked but one of Hawke’s great achievements was introducing decent family payments lifting thousands of kids out of poverty.
6
79
350
Just for perspective annual cash welfare expenditure will increase from roughly $120B to $122B pa as a result of the $50pf JobSeeker lift. A 0.1% increase in share of GDP. NB welfare is a transfer of cash, largely not a cost to the economy.
15
143
347
600 kms of driving in country NSW not a bug on the car! Barely an animal spotted dead or alive and smoke everywhere. Pretty grim out there.
32
152
329
Welfare payments lowered today for nearly 2 million people. Poverty numbers to climb from 3.5 to 3.8 million.
17
212
322
A reminder that those facing the toughest financial conditions (today and just about always) are not those paying personal income tax. It's JobSeekers, low-income renters, single parents, disabled, carers, sick etc.
19
92
324
‘Young people may never own a house’ begs the question who will own all the houses in 40 years when boomers are gone?
129
35
312
Has been too much emphasis on *building* new public housing. You can just *buy* good existing stock. Cheaper, sooner, public housing. This is good.
We’ve just bought this vacant hotel in South Brisbane to give homeless families a safe place to stay.
Because every Queenslander deserves a roof over their head.
820
467
4K
21
43
316
1% of flight emissions are offset in Australia. Hence the need for an economy-wide carbon price
#FightForPlanetA
6
43
299
One of the least surprising findings of
@TheAusInstitute
research on tax concessions is that negative gearing benefits flow mostly to high income earners by income and wealth distribution.
11
152
290
Jobseeker rate well below ALL poverty line estimates
8
138
281
Delighted to be awarded an ARC Discovery grant with
@WhitefordPeter
and
@Bruce_Bradbury
from ANU and UNSW on Inequality, Prosperity and the Australian Welfare State
30
11
279
Australian households spend twice as much on superannuation fees as they do on electricity
20
259
261
Imagine being a self-funded retiree couple with a nest egg of $3.2m and typical earnings of around 7.5% last 5 years ($250k pa) and not paying a cent of tax and getting franking credits due to a low ‘taxable’ income!
The idea of a retirement nest egg is to use it not just live off your (tax-free) income.
17
33
124
18
80
266
Sad to hear of the passing of Prof Ann Harding who established and directed NATSEM at UC for nearly 20 years. An incredible contribution to public policy, economics and microsimulation modelling in Australia and beyond. Ann was inspirational to many and will be greatly missed.
28
49
261
Where did excess franking credits go? ANUs research showed Almost exclusively high income/wealth households. Yes they had low ‘taxable incomes’ as super income not taxable for most retirees.
8
166
213
Mental health of younger Australians falling dramatically - an actual real crisis! HILDA Annual Statistical Report out today.
24
83
207
A bold assumption here that the super $3m cap would survive 40+ years and 13+ elections
40
28
209
Imagine how the proposed 6 month waiting period for Newstart recipients under 30 would be going right about now!
8
55
197
House price growth vs population growth - can you find any correlation here at all?
74
41
198
We continue to design our welfare systems for a very small group of recipients who don’t do the right thing at the great expense of the majority who do the right thing.
Robodebt was a policy fiasco with a human cost we have yet to fully appreciate
2
29
56
12
45
193
If JobSeeker was just going to people between jobs the standard economic incentive arguments would make a lot of sense. Increasingly, that’s not who is on the payment. Eg many on the payment would have received a disability or parenting payment in decades past.
10
41
194
Worth remembering HECS is a progressive tax (almost exclusively paid by the top half of the income distribution). Lowering HECS requires more taxes or less Govt spending elsewhere. Also there is almost no link between HECS and uni participation.
Labor’s cut to HECS indexation won’t provide cost of living relief now but will take a few months off loan repayment times for mid/hi income grads in the future
8
13
78
67
30
187
90% of Excess franking credits go to the top 20% of households by wealth. My
@ConversationEDU
piece with
@Matt_C_Gray
13
190
184
Australia's balance of trade is quite unbelievable atm. $137B surplus pa. Hardly gets talked about. In deficit 80% of the time historically.
23
52
182
I think the root cause of the failed Robodebt scheme was Australia’s demonisation of cash welfare. Should be held in the same regard as Medicare
Greggery: "Would you describe the robodebt scheme implemented under your secretary-ship as a massive failure of public administration?"
Campbell: "I consider it was a failure of public administration on a mass... on a significant scale." Can you think of a bigger one?
5
70
285
9
40
170
SMH selling this like it’s a change of policy. LMITO was only ever temporary.
22
28
174
90% of franking credits go to top 20% of income (actual household as opposed to ‘taxable income’)
9
88
163
Concerns today a 50% renewables target could lead to economic activity to 2030 being only $29.94 trillion rather than $30 trillion.
10
66
160
Increase the tax-free threshold and lower the top tax threshold from $200K to $180K:
Better off Households: 62%
Worse off Households: 7%
No change: 31%
Source: ANU PolicyMod, 2024/25 FY
22
45
166
Friday is becoming quite the exciting day for bad news dumps. Last week $60B Jobkeeper budget miss and today Robodebt scrapped. Next week?
14
35
160
Removing neg gearing would roughly increase personal income tax from $300 to $304b pa. Reckon we spend a disproportionately large amount of time and effort on this policy.
57
28
165
Murrumbidgee River unrecognisable from earlier this year.
5
35
160
'Poverty' mentioned 206 times in the retirement income review. A lot for a concept that was largely dismissed by DSS officials as 'academic' or 'theoretical' and not helpful in determining welfare settings by the minister in a recent senate hearing
6
57
145
Fact check finds pharmacy guild claims about 60 day scripts unfounded. 90 day scripts in NZ ‘going ok’
The Pharmacy Guild of Australia says 400 drugs are on the "critical" shortage list and 20 per cent of those would be out of stock due to the government's new 60-day script policy. But the data tells a different story.
78
302
785
8
38
145
The simple exponential model for NSW Covid cases starting to overshoot. Fingers crossed this continues.
15
15
142
These sorts of cost overruns for the NDIS would never have been allowed to happen in the frugal world of social security payments such as Jobseeker or disability pensions
41
18
146
ACT gets 2 senators elected for 3 years each. Tas gets 12 for 6 years. Makes sense.
55
26
146
Not to mention the long term loss of services to mostly lower income persons that result from less tax revenue.
8
53
138
Those advocating for JobSeeker to increase to $80pd (doubling old level) do they also want all the pensions at that rate too? Disability/carer/parenting/DVA?
140
32
134
Franking credits policy isn’t the problem, it’s the tax free status of superannuation income for over 60s that’s the problem. Small number with very large incomes paying no/little tax.
This was a good policy, most people (certainly potential Labor voters) have no skin in it and ditching it is a bad idea.
19
15
169
16
34
132
The mining boom that keeps booming! Exports of Coal, gas and iron ore around $280b pa. Roughly 11K pa per person. A decent mining tax would be handy right about now.
16
44
131
The standard of journalism on the topic of welfare policy is disappointing in Australia
12
41
127
Living standards (real per capita household income) about where we were 13 years ago (or 15 years ago including GFC stimulus payments).
16
29
127
Reminder Oz households spend twice as much on superannuation fees as we do on electricity
3
67
127
The idea of a retirement nest egg is to use it not just live off your (tax-free) income.
17
33
124
Australian households spend twice as much on superannuation fees as we do on electricity.
Australians pay more than $30 billion a year in super fund fees. The numbers in this analysis by Stephen Bartholomeusz make me want to check my fees again pronto.
15
52
92
6
88
123
'Yes' vote strongly correlates (78%) with no religion (no shock) at electorate level
13
90
124
The sickest part of our welfare system is placing sick and disabled people on the miserly Jobseeker payment for years often with onerous and pointless jobseeker requirements
I spoke to
@lukehgomes
about the push for disability payment rules to be ‘rewritten’ - with some people struggling for years, living below the poverty line, before receiving support 1
7
70
171
1
37
122
Against all odds the ACT economy has been the best in the nation since banning free plastic bags
Australian businesses have warned Treasury that bans on plastic bags are contributing to the weakening economy as shoppers are unable to carry large amounts of groceries to their car or home, confidential briefings reveal
646
78
201
5
39
117
Some pointing out today that the top tax threshold was $180K in 2008 meaning it should/could be $250K today. However, was also only $60K in 2002. Should it be $83K today? No clear answers to any of this.
25
19
121
One of the mysteries of the housing supply/housing cost debate is why rents have not outpaced wages. One would think if claims of a serious and long term housing shortage were true rents would outpace wages.
47
25
121
The analysis does show that the combined impact of stage 1,2 and 3 tax cuts very much favours highest income earners. Not just stage 3.
“Critics who concern themselves with the stage three cuts targeting only higher tax brackets need to be reminded the cuts are called stage three for a reason. Stages one and two targeted lower-income earners and were enacted years ago.”
#auspol
92
15
146
33
38
116
Financial media talks a lot about the top tax rate kicking in too low down the income distribution. We have 4 different tax rates and the highest 2 only apply to the top 10% and top rate the top 5%.
28
29
116
When it comes to the cost-of-living public debate confuses the real cost increases. Here's the last 10 yrs
Overall CPI +30%
Food +29% (heavily coles/woolies)
Rents +17%
Childcare +30%
Health +46%
Sec. Schools +48%
Insurance +59%
Electricity +23%
Petrol 33%
New dwellings +58%
30
26
117
Forecasting simple economic variables one year ahead is tricky enough - attempting to model economic impacts decades ahead from different renewable targets is just not realistic - economists can't model everything!!
15
58
111
NSW continues to grow on the exponential path for the moment. Roughly doubling every 11 days. Model predicted 1322, got 1290. Hopefully that inflection point comes soon. 2000 in a week, 3000 in a fortnight if not.
9
45
112
Can confirm properly insulating a house is worth every cent. Why don’t more people do this? First cold day in Canberra our previously 0.5 star house about 5 degrees warmer in some rooms (than would have been the case)
33
4
111
This chart from the ABC suggests only the top few percent can buy a home in Australia yet FHB numbers are running pretty strong atm - higher than most of the last decade or so
38
17
116
Age pension currently 55% higher than JobSeeker. 1990s was around 10% higher. Current policy trajectory 100% higher by 2045.
9
37
114
Even more tax for the couple where the $150k income is not evenly split
5
7
109
If one bad year of HECS indexation for mid/hi income Uni grads leads to action might be time for decent JobSeeker indexation after 30 bad years.
6
35
110
JobSeeker recipients report higher rates of mental health conditions (+167%), diabetes (+67%), arthritis (+55%) compared to non-welfare recipients (new linked ABS Census/DSS/ATO data) (TableBuilder). Disability Support Pensioners and Carer Payment much worse.
8
66
105
These charts don’t mean a lot but shows Australia does a lot of home building and some countries with high ‘dwellings per person’ don’t. It’s largely about population growth/wealth.
18
21
106
Why do we always talk about ‘building’ public housing. Why not just buy from existing stock? Quicker, cheaper. The ‘adding to supply’ arg is overblown. Relative to all housing stock it’s minuscule.
25
20
104
More tax refunds reckless say economists
9
27
105