Scott Phillips
@TMFScottP
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Investor. Business person. CIO @themotleyfoolau . Director @cityrecitalhall Holdings:
Sydney, Australia
Joined January 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Tweeting about a range of stuff - and not following an arbitrary 'party line' on anything - means I end up with followers who might be disappointed that I'm not a cheerleader for 'their team' (regardless of the topic).
So, thanks for following, but consider yourselves warned :)
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2GB reporting mass cancellations at restaurants.
Why?
Because pollies forget behavioural psychology.
Keeping things open, and dropping restrictions sounds good... until people vote with their feet.
More restrictions and fewer cases would have meant more business!
An own goal
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He's not gone yet.
But to live -- and eventually die -- the way The Big Yin has, with his grace, humour, curiosity, perspective and acceptance...
... that's gotta be something to admire, at least, and to aspire to.
I hope the rest of your journey is kind,
@Billy_Connolly
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Why does Clare O'Neill think we should accept more density, rather than reducing population growth?
Why should Australians accept a lower standard of living so that governments can accept more immigration?
Bloody madness.
#QandA
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Just. Ban. Gambling. Ads.
It's not that hard.
We're allowing them to get into our kids' heads while their brains are still forming. We're normalising this stuff.
(Oh, and ban gambling companies from sponsoring sport, too. Same reasons.)
#auspol
#gambling
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Not many things I'm more sure of than:
1. Australia is not getting enough for the minerals and hydrocarbons miners extract, and
2. The proceeds of resource rents and royalties should be put in a Sovereign Wealth Fund.
We're shortchanging our kids.
#auspol
#ausbiz
#Budget2024
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Surely at some point, this is just voyeurism.
When do we stop breathlessly reporting on a former celebrity with serious and ongoing issues?
What is gained by this? It just feels... yuck.
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"God help me. I was only 19"
Today is Vietnam Veterans Day.
We remember those who made the supreme sacrifice.
We remember those who came home with physical and mental injuries.
We remember those who came home to a nation that shunned them.
Welcome Home.
Lest We Forget
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Australia could have something similar.
But... We don't because we have a lack of vision and bipartisanship from our politicians, past and present.
A national shame.
🇳🇴 Norway's sovereign wealth fund reports profits of $143 billion in the first half of 2023.
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In losing North and Central Queensland and Bass and Braddon in Tasmania, Bill Shorten has made the same mistakes as Hillary Clinton's loss of working class America.
In both cases, the left has moved too far from their working class roots, and failed to earn their vote
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If you can accept that we took in ~600k people in a year, grossly in excess of our ability to build new homes, but then assert that the issue is zoning/supply, either you're shilling for someone, or wilfully distorting reality to fit a worldview.
It's ridiculous.
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Granted, no-one *needs* a beer on Good Friday.
But surely it's time to repeal laws that owe more to a broad religious puritanism of the 1800s than to a modern Australia?
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I'm pretty agnostic on nuclear - I can see the costs and benefits, and timing is a huge question.
But when the politicians choose to ignore our national science organisation because it doesn't suit their preconceptions, they deserve our disdain.
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Ban. All. Gambling. Ads.
I've said it before.
Plenty of others have said it before.
John Howard is saying it now.
The government has an opportunity to actually help addicts and look after our kids.
Come on, PM. A chance for leadership and to make a real change.
#auspol
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Bloody hell.
This is ridiculous.
10 years old.
Country Liberals to lower criminal age to 10 years old in NT as Finocchiaro talks tough on law and order
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Just in case the government is hoping the news cycle will move on... let's say again:
Just. Ban. Gambling. Ads.
We don't need them. They create misery.
Our kids deserve better.
#auspol
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I don't mean this as a subtweet to anyone I've engaged with (in good faith on both sides) today.
But I'm staggered by the knots people will tie themselves in - and the impositions they'd visit on other Australians - to keep immigration high, for reasons I find hard to fathom.
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The RBA is fallible and has made mistakes.
But at least it's trying.
The gaslighting from the Treasurer is either based on a lack of economic understanding, or self-interested politics.
The government has done almost nothing to help tame inflation, and plenty to make it worse.
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I am uncomfortably moving toward nuclear power as a (the?) viable option for Climate Change action.
Let's say it takes 15 years to build sufficient numbers of Australian reactors to power the grid.
In 2039, we'd have a totally emissions-free grid.
An uncomfortable 🧵
1/n
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I wanted to hate the Bondi Junction killer.
I wanted to be glad that his seeming hatred of women was ended by a female copper.
But this just seems like a horrible case of mental illness, outside the control of the bloke who suffered from it.
Just awfully sad, all round.
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You'd almost think they'd spent too much of their careers being focussed on the political idea of "managing the message" and not enough on "actual outcomes".
Pollies? Surely not???
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"We can't ban gambling ads. What about the sports and the broadcasters?"
Sound familiar?
It should. It was the same complaint when a tobacco ad ban was suggested!
And it's a nonsense reason.
*What about the kids?" is the right question.
#auspol
#gambling
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This has got an extraordinary response.
Please retweet if you agree - the government needs to know we don't want them to take the easy, gutless, option.
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It's not close to the biggest issue in our society or economy, but found out today that the excise on grog is over $100/ltr on spirits and $61/ltr on beer - and rises with inflation.
I don't mind the idea of sin taxes in general, but at some point it gets silly, surely.
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This is economic vandalism.
It robs from their future.
And it pushes house prices up.
A terrible policy, regardless of your politics.
Either ignorant of economics, or aware but careless.
#RetirementWrecker
#auspol
#ausbiz
Saving a deposit has never been harder. That’s why our Super Home Buyer policy will allow Australians to access up to $50k of their super for a deposit. Labor and Big Super think your money belongs to them; we believe you should have the choice to use your own money to buy a home
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No-one wants a recession.
Some say 'I'd rather pay more to avoid one'.
But we're paying a food tax of 19.4% (inflation, since Jan 2020)... so far.
We wouldn't pay 19% more tax to avoid a recession.
This... is that.
Recessions come and go. Inflation is forever.
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Watched the third State of Origin game in WA when I was away.
When the gambling mobs were advertising in other states, WA coverage carried words to the effect of 'this content isn't allowed in your jurisdiction'.
It was such a nice change.
Should be national.
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This is good from
@DavidPocock
- singing my tune.
Time to dump the 50% CGT discount and reintroduce indexation.
(Also stop - but grandfather - negative gearing).
#auspol
#ausbiz
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The most ridiculous idea in housing (in a *very* crowded field): using Super for housing.
Absolute stupidity.
#QandA
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A reminder that we don't have enough homes for Australians, and that we're still growing population faster than dwelling supply.
And we have politicians who are apparently supposed to make laws in the national interest.
This is not a hard problem.
#auspol
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I don't agree with everything that
@PMalinauskasMP
has done.
But this is outright BRILLIANT.
SA has a track record of leading on political reforms.
Here's hoping this is another!
#auspol
Our legislation will ban ALL political donations.
We want money out of politics.
We know this is not easy. These reforms may well face legal challenge.
But we are determined to deliver them.
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I'm really disappointed with Treasurer Chalmers' lack of support for the RBA and its independence.
He has the *entire fiscal machinery of government* at his disposal.
But the 'the RBA has to explain' and 'people will find it hard to cop' are disappointingly soft from him.
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Sydney and Melbourne are apparently less dense than other international cities.
As if we should aspire to higher density.
Because....?
#QandA
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Some reminders:
1. We commemorate ANZAC Day... We don't 'celebrate' it.
2. Please don't say 'Happy ANZAC Day'. Seriously...
3. Yes, it's a public holiday. Yes, it's already a short week. But there's a reason we have the day off.
#ANZACDay2019
#ANZACDay
#RespectTheDay
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I'm far from convinced 80% of Australians need a tertiary qualification.
At some point, it's just a qualifications arms race.
I'm pro-tertiary education, but I'm against qualifications inflation.
#Budget2024
#Budget24
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So,
#QandA
is having a housing special tonight.
The only sustainable way to improve housing affordability is for prices to rise more slowly than incomes.
And in the short to medium term, you do that by slowing population growth until/unless dwelling growth can keep up.
1/n
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This will get bugger-all attention, because it's 'just bees'...
But it should have everyone ropeable.
We live on an island. We knew about the impact of Varroa.
We have a biosecurity apparatus.
And it failed. Miserably.
We now have a new, endemic pest
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How do you defend this?
You can't, surely?
#auspol
Did you know Michelle Rowland, the minister who's supposed to regulate online gambling and gambling ads, has accepted 27 tickets and hospitality from Tabcorp and The Star combined over the past five years? The races, rugby matches, musicals, dinners . .
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I try to keep politics and policy separate.
But the LNP's concerted, repeated, efforts to undermine
#Super
needs to be called out.
Was it not enough that 750,000 people emptied their Super during the pandemic???
A disgrace.
#auspol
#RetirementWrecker
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I'm really sorry that immigrants feel scapegoated on housing.
It's not their fault.
But if demand continues to exceed supply, we don't fix the housing problem.
We have to call a spade a bloody shovel.
#QandA
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Great take from
@Peter_Fitz
.
We are all Raygun.
And the whingers and bores and miseryguts' be damned.
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If you owned a block of land, about the size of Australia, with all of her natural resources, and you wanted to pass it on to your kids, would you do the things that we're doing?
If it was a company, whose value you wanted to protect and grow, would you run it this way?
#auspol
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I'm sick of posting about this.
You're sick of reading about it.
But we can't let fatigue stop us, if we care about both housing affordability and availability.
We can debate 'Big Australia' later.
In the meantime, we need to slow population growth to match supply.
#auspol
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I'll also repeat something I've said many times before:
There is no more ridiculous tax than payroll tax: literally a tax on employment.
I don't know how a serious government can pretend to want more jobs, while taxing each current and future job...
#auspol
I've been accused of wanting too much banned, and too many taxes.
I don't resile from specific views on both. But to share a different thought:
Alcohol, tobacco and fuel excises need to stop rising, and people should be able to home-distil, tax free, just as we can homebrew.
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If you had more people coming into Stadium Australia last night than you had seats for, you might announce a 10-year plan to build more seats.
But in the meantime, you'd probably limit the number of people entering the stadium...
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One of the greatest tricks the pollies ever pulled was convincing us that national GDP - not GDP per capita - was the right stat.
It's not.
A bigger pie with smaller slices still means that, on average, everyone gets less.
#auspol
#ausbiz
Australia slides further into a per capita recession
GDP per capita down 1 per cent in year to Dec
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This would be a disgrace.
A complete abandonment of any serious commitment to economic wellbeing.
If I was Treasurer tomorrow, I'd instruct APRA to mandate a 25-year maximum loan length for mortgages.
#ausbiz
#auspol
This makes housing more “affordable” by reducing monthly mortgage payments but increases the overall cost of homeownership.
A bank’s dream but aspiring homeowner’s nightmare. This shouldn’t be allowed to happen.
Affordability is a price issue not a leverage one.
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Of all of the issues a government can consider addressing, I'm still flabbergasted that the Federal Government can clearly know what's happening with housing and turn a blind eye.
We need a deep cut to population growth.
And *now*,.. not plans and announcements.
#auspol
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The NDIS is fundamentally broken.
The model is simply 100% wrong, because it separates the payer, the provider and the recipient.
You can't fix it unless you blow it up and replace ir unfortunately.
#Budget2024
#Budget24
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Apparently a compliance crackdown on the NDIS is going to save $14b.
If there's that much fraud in the system, kill the program.
(But also, I'll take the unders on that much being saved. In other words, probably a false saving).
#Budget2024
#Budget24
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Spot on.
This is depressing.
Prices too high? Here's some money to make them higher.
Can't buy a house. We won't fix that, but we'll let you buy a house with friends.
Policy gutlessness and abdication on housing on all sides and at all levels.
More taxpayer dollars to make housing even more unaffordable.
The truly stupid thing is this is also conclusion of multiple government enquiries into the outcomes driven by demand side interventions like this.
But all govts state/federal ignore those findings because reasons.
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Bloody hell.
Clare O'Neil already suggesting supply is the issue on housing.
The program off to a predictably awful start.
#auspol
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Why am I banging on about population, particularly with respect to housing?
Honestly, I was late to the issue. I still don't really want to stick my hand in this socially-dangerous hornet's nest.
So why do I?
Because housing affordability, availability and amenity matter.
1/4
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It feels like the dam is about to burst on public discourse around immigration:
1. I think we are taking in too many people, relative to our capacity to absorb that number; but also
2. There is *no* excuse for racism and xenophobia dressed up as concerns about population
1/n
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"God help me. I was only 19"
Today is Vietnam Veterans Day.
We remember those who made the supreme sacrifice.
We remember those who came home with physical and mental injuries.
We remember those who came home to a nation that shunned them.
Welcome Home.
Lest We Forget
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You can have your views on John Howard, but his lasting legacy, above all others, is and will be his strong action on gun control.
(And, too little recognised, Qld Premier Rob Borbidge who consigned his party to opposition, by taking a principled stand to support it.)
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Prediction:
After the abolition of the 37% tax bracket, some high income earners will start to complain that the jump from 30% to 45% is too big and discourages people from working harder...
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"PM, on what basis did the government decide immigration could run at these levels, given existing levels of dwelling vacancies and projections for housing completions?"
"Why was that deemed appropriate, and what implications were foreseen?"
#QuestionsForPoliticians
#auspol
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Still hearing my (and your) tax money being used to advertise the Stage 3 tax cuts.
A completely unjustified waste of money.
#auspol
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I have no political dog in this fight.
But the government simply cannot claim to have done anything like enough to help with the fight against
#inflation
.
It's just basic maths.
To assert anything else is just spin.
#auspol
#ausbiz
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It is stunning to me that the Federal Government can be all smiles handing down a Budget while it knows how dire the housing situation is, without taking fast and serious action.
And that the Federal Opposition can equally ignore the problem, as if it doesn't exist.
#auspol
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Why are businesses charging for card payments?
Because they can!
They'd charge for cash, too, if they could get away with it.
(The RBA shouldn't have allowed businesses to add a surcharge, but absorb it in the price like every other cost)
#ausbiz
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Oh god.
Government throwing billions at unproven technologies.
'Renewable energy superpower'.
Spare me.
If the technologies are proven, companies will make the investments solo.
If not... Government are the mugs.
#Budget2023
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"The number of migrants should be associated with... housing".
@AlanKohler
is absolutely spot on, on
#QandA
.
The disconnect from reality, from others, when it comes to housing is madness.
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A reminder: only the pollies and ideologues want us to have an 'energy debate'.
The rest of us want experts to have a data-informed energy discussion, in good faith, to determine the best energy mix for Australia.
The 'debate' is the problem, not the solution.
#auspol
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Ah, God love 'em.
The LNP have apparently decided to stick with their
#RetirementWrecker
policy, euphemistically called Super-for-housing.
This is a stupid, self-serving policy that forces a false binary on our kids and puts upward pressure on house price.
1/n
#auspol
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I guess 615,000 more Australians makes sense when inflation is high and housing is unaffordable, yeah?
Is that right, PM?
How will you explain that to homeless Australians, and those who can't afford housing, PM?
#auspol
Aust population grth slowed in the Mar qtr but still very strong at 2.3%yoy, or +615k people taking the total pop to 27.1m. Net migration slowed but to a still very strong 510k. Exp some further slowing ahead as student numbers slow. WA remains strongest, Tas weakest
(ABS charts)
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Partisan politics aside, Wayne is right.
Super, as flawed as it is, remains one of the very best financial and economic policies of the last four decades.
We should guard the system zealously, and make it better, stopping others from undermining it.
#auspol
#ausbiz
Super is giving more people over time higher retirement incomes so they can make a choice about retiring when they choose. This wasn't possible twenty years ago when all they had was the age pension.
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Fixed it: "Immigration Minister hopes that a simplistic-but-wrong statement might cover up the fact his government has been running an unsustainable and inflationary immigration program, for blind ideological or craven political reasons "
Immigration Minister Andrew Giles says skilled migrants are needed to build new homes, warning Australia must engage in a sober debate on the pressure the surge of overseas arrivals is placing on the housing crisis.
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How on earth is this a thing in our democracy?
I'm *sure* other parties and candidates do the same thing, but come on...
We've gotta demand better rules on political largesse.
#auspol
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This is why Independents are so important in our national parliament
Can you imagine either side of politics having the vision, policy chops and/or guts to raise these things?
And, frankly, each should absolutely happen, as I've tweeted elsewhere
Onya Senator!
#auspol
#ausbiz
Negative gearing & other generous property tax concessions like capital gains on investment property shouldn’t be off the table.
We need to be able to have a mature debate about our tax - everything from fossil fuel subsidies to PRRT & multinationals.
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Seems I lost some followers tonight, after criticising the stupidity of some soccer fans invading the pitch and attacking a goalkeeper.
I have zero regrets.
I'm not trying to offend people, but if you think assaulting a goalkeeper is cool, please feel free to unfollow me...
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Sarah Ferguson pushing the Treasurer on why people at the top end of the income spectrum get $300.
No clear answer. Feels like a pre-election decision... and a waste of money.
I don't need the $300, but will get it anyway.
#Budget2024
#Budget24
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No.
Our politicians need to respect the independence of the RBA, and not put political grandstanding ahead of good policy.
The Premier knows better.
The Reserve Bank needs to start cutting interest rates now to take pressure off households.
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I usually tweet about finance and business and policy.
And I'm going to share something from another finance guy,
@tweetbarefoot
.
But it's not about money. And if you don't read anything else I tweet, please read (and share) this.
And hug your kids.
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