Aaron Hedlund
@aaron_hedlund
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Flyover Economist. Real Estate Prof. White House CEA Alum. Husband. Dad. ✞ Affiliations: @PurdueBusiness @stlouisfed @A1Policy @ShowMe . Prev @cgousu .
Columbia, MO
Joined August 2011
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But what Congress needs isn't rah rah support. Voters must hold the politicians' feet to the fire and remind them their jobs are on the line
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The birth of FRED (econ data nerds know what I’m talking about).
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Did I miss the macroeconomics lectures where they teach that antitrust () and price controls () are effective inflation-fighting strategies, or is economic illiteracy just running rampant again in some corners of the popular press?
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I’m overjoyed and grateful to receive the news that I have been granted tenure at
@Mizzou
! I couldn’t have done it without the support of family, friends and colleagues. I move forward with renewed purpose to push out the knowledge frontier and use those answers to serve society.
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Note to Dems: this is the real world, not "Mad Men." Rebranding only works if you're selling a good product.
#mosen
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First official day as an associate prof with tenure. Of all the ways I could have pictured it in the years leading up to this moment, never once did I imagine I’d be spending it at the WH working to combat the economic consequences of a pandemic...
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No offense to fellow econs, but having one’s social circle or social media ecosystem populated only by economists? No way. Always amazed when I meet other economists whose friends seem to be almost entirely economists. Diversification and horizon broadening are good!
I don’t like Mastadon. And it’s not that I haven’t given it a chance or that it’s “clunky.” I’ve cruised the local timeline of econtwitter on and off this week. It’s not fun. A social media platform of only economists is not fun. Guess I’m going down with the ship.
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If we want better leaders, we need to stop excusing their hypocrisy and lies as "oh, well that's politics." Time to raise standards.
#mosen
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EJMR aside (what is that, right?), I find it surprising that economists seem to be way more into endurance cardio than shorter, high-intensity workouts and in particular lifting. Is this a form of therapy, where running a marathon is like the marathon of getting a PhD and tenure?
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I respect differences in political views and that not everyone would make the same decision that I did to serve, but it’s sad to see this kind of beyond-the-pale rhetoric coming from respected (judged by the supreme yet narrow criteria of one’s quiver of publications) economists.
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“If suspicion based on allegation—even or especially “believable” allegations—becomes a sufficient basis for disqualification, it will create overpowering political incentives to discover, produce or manufacture allegations in the hopes something sticks.”
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Had to abandon my apartment two blocks from the Capitol to spend the night outside the city. This is nuts and completely destructive.
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Anybody who was *rooting* for the Mueller report to find collusion needs to go take a cold shower. There are more important things than rank partisanship.
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Being pro-life isn't about controlling women's decisions, it's about protecting & giving voice to the voiceless.
#WhatsProLifeAbout
#mosen
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Apparently MMTers can be a sensitive bunch. You’d think with inflation running at 7% that would be more of a cause for humility and introspection rather than doubling down and defensiveness.
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The NFL: unity of the economically privileged, culturally deaf, and politically stupid.
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I had to get into college the old fashioned way—through diligent hard work, family/friend support, and prayer. No legacy, no silver spoon, no prep school connection. That’s what makes the college admissions cheating scandal so outrageous—the elite padding their advantage.
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I’ve read 0 novels in 2022. Here are my top recommendations:
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"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." - Churchill. By that standard liberalism is on quite a roll.
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There are far too few academic econ/finance-type jobs in areas with mountains, which I find depressing and unacceptable.
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Now that I’ve adjusted to life back in MO, I can say it was an honor to work at the WH CEA, especially on the COVID econ rescue/recovery & health data modernization efforts. I’ll miss colleagues & encourage others to do like
@mander_michaud
and step up in the future!
#EconTwitter
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Politics isn’t war. Sports aren’t war. Business isn’t war. War is war. We would do well to dial back the war metaphors in politics. Especially now. That doesn’t mean we can’t have strong disagreements. A healthy democracy always will.
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I was surprised and excited to receive this challenge coin. The work itself on the pandemic starting last spring was anything but glorious, but knowing the stakes was fuel enough to push through late nights and no weekends. I look forward to when COVID is in the rearview mirror.
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Congrats to my friend and esteemed economist-colleague Chris Waller! Eminently and undeniably qualified and well-suited for the role. I will miss seeing him around at the St Louis Fed in the future, though...
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The gap between undergrad econ and frontier research is too high. Case-in-point: undergrad macro ignoring heterogeneous agent models, giving the impression that the distribution of outcomes is either irrelevant or that macro has nothing to say about it. Both wrong!
#EconTwitter
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Deaton bringing the heat.
Randomized control trials (RCT) have no special standing among econometric methods. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. They often carry serious and inadequately addressed ethical issues, from Angus Deaton
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An academic career need not come at the expense of family. Life is short, people. Prioritize the way *you* want, not the way others (even if they’re big shots in your profession) tell you to do it.
Someone once told me not to have kids before tenure. Best advice I ever ignored. Pictured today with my three babies: my actual baby, my baby to be, and my tenure and promotion letter. This is what academia can look like!
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Officially the parent of a teenager. Let the adventure begin.
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I was a Duke student 12 years ago when a rogue prosecutor politicized justice in the Lacrosse scandal. Much of the campus immediately assumed guilt. A year later, charges were dropped and the prosecutor was disbarred, but lives were ruined. The lesson: never jump to conclusions.
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Too many conservatives have an econ 101 view of the marketplace, and too many liberals have an econ 101 view of the government. The reality of both is that they are messy and subject to failure. Any debates about policy ought to be had with this understanding in mind.
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It's greed when politicians let voters keep more of their own money but altruism when politicians cheerfully take money from one person's pocket, put it in somebody else's pocket, and keep a fraction for themselves.
#mosen
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Sounds a lot like academic department meetings.
This 1944 CIA memo, on how to infiltrate an organisation and make it dysfunctional, is amazing.
Worth framing in the coffee room of every company.
ht
@esportslaw
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An interesting quote today, and food for thought: “The individual is the most important of all minorities.”
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Without question, one of the things that makes professional life as an economist so engaging is the constant interaction and collaboration with peers from all over the globe. It’s a true pleasure to get to know and learn from them.
#econtwitter
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Two years after COVID forced us to cancel, Midwest Macro in Utah will happen *in person* on May 20-21. Conference submissions are now open until 3/4, so send your papers and spread the word! Stay tuned to . Plan for quality econ and amazing outdoor scenery!
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@BigRfaze
@Scarlett210
@rose10052
@HandelTeam
@karenhandel
@SongBird4Trump
@kshw5678
@RepublicanChick
@AnitaDWhitee
@mollyday15
@Momstaxi104
@starcrosswolf
@realBlakPac
@RobertsRooms
@Aspen_Taylor
Ossoff's memory not so good. He forgets he only had a security clearance for 5 months not 5 yrs & he can't find the district he's running in
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@Mark_J_Perry
@OhioState
@jennsmola
@TheLantern
@CollegeFix
Relevant study (): “We are unable to find significant statistical evidence that preexisting growth in diversity for underrepresented racial/ethnic minority groups is affected by the hiring of an executive level diversity officer for [faculty/admin hires].”
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To avoid DNC debacle, GOP should ensure level playing field in all statewide races w/robust TV debate schedule & joint public events.
#mosen
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The most effective way to significantly raise revenue is to increase taxes across-the-board. The most effective way to run a fact-free populist campaign is to promise trillions in spending while only taxing the ultra-rich. The best way to generate higher growth is to *do neither*
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Politics isn't a game of deathmatch paintball. Ideas matter more than tribalism. The sooner ppl act like it the sooner we can solve problems
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I won’t claim the mantle of being “great,” but I’m pretty confident I would have taken a pass on a PhD had a pre-doc been required.
Many great economists wouldn't have chosen economics if being a research assistant for 2 years was the price of entry.
Ambitious schools can poach these students: imitate the selection strategy of the top predoc labs, and just let them start their Ph.D.'s right away.
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This crisis calls for the econ community to leverage its insights/tools to make an impact & not settle for the rinse-and-repeat of write, website post, & submit. Share your work. Reach out to policymakers & amplifiers or else the only impact it'll have is on your CV.
#EconTwitter
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We can easily cut middle class taxes & increase econ growth if we abandon social engineering & the temptation to pick winners/losers.
#mosen
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@AP4Liberty
All of society loses when vigorous debate is replaced with censorship and retribution.
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A personal, not political, statement made in my personal capacity: (1/2)
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One of the cardinal rules in life is: don’t be a jerk. The idea that a-holery is a necessary trait to be a leader or get ahead is simply wrong. Far better to build people up, combine confidence with humility, and create positive spillovers for others (which often boomerang back).
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I’m looking forward to the return of in-person conferences, but it shouldn’t be either-or: we should be streaming ASSA every year if you ask me. The more the ideas get out there, the better.
#ASSA2021
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Why do young conservative/libertarian-types these days get much more heavily exposed to Hayek and the Austrian school as opposed to Friedman and the Chicago school?
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When did econ referee reports become a courtroom cross-examination with referees acting as opposing counsel instead of a scientific validation mechanism where authors write the paper they want to write and referees evaluate whether the paper meets professional standards?
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Major pet peeve: gas station pumps that ask me a battery of questions upon me swiping my credit card (“Do you have a rewards card?” “Is this a debit card?” “Would you like a car wash?” “Who was your favorite Spice Girl?”) before allowing me to start actually PUMPING THE GAS!
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Imagine what we could accomplish if more public servants focused their energy on developing solutions, implementing them, and having the courage to honestly assess their results--admitting mistakes when appropriate--instead of engaging in constant self-promotion.
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@FiveThirtyEight
Yes, Obamacare has caused a lot of hospital consolidation just as Dodd-Frank has caused bank consolidation. Big govt hurts small enterprises
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Being Republican isn't enough if you don't have principles, & having principles isn't enough if you can't translate them into action.
#mosen
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A moment that felt like a painting (3 hours ago).
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Needed in political debate: more honest appraisals of trade-offs & spirited debates about which values should drive priorities. What we could use less of: costless virtue signaling, attributions of bad faith & "arc of history"/"you're with us or against us" rhetoric.
#EconTwitter
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I suspect future labor market models will no longer be linearized.
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@EricGreitens
realizes what too few other policymakers do, which is that a job isn't just about a paycheck--though that's important. It's also about dignity, a sense of purpose, and the knowledge that one is contributing to their family and the broader community.
#mogov
#moleg
After a special session and a lot of work by people all over the state and country, I was proud to be back in the bootheel today to announce that an aluminum smelter is opening with 450 quality jobs! We’re winning the fight for more jobs and higher pay in Missouri.
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Now that Thanksgiving is over, it’s time to prepare for what comes next (no, not Festivus)!
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To the political class & power brokers, unity is often a code word for falling in line & doing what they want. True unity is earned.
#mosen
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Team Transitory declaring victory after two years of high inflation and Fed rate hikes of over 3% is absurd, especially since inflation still isn’t at 2% (especially core). Who did they think the other team was? Team Permanent? Nobody thought inflation would last *forever.*
Lots of “team transitory” out there taking victory laps which is absolutely farcical. Where would housing prices be if mortgages had yielded 3% the whole while and stocks took a moonshot? Much higher! And thus, CPI would be way higher as well.
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A valuable skill to acquire in life is learning how to genuinely be happy for the success of others rather than viewing them as competitors whose failures are to be celebrated.
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That time when politicians pushed for laws that economists said could hurt employment and now all they can do is blame "unfair" firings that were completely predictable.
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First time in the academic office and teaching in over a year. There is no disguising that I am a nerd at heart, even as I also enjoy talking and working with those outside the guild.
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@TheAlanNoble
@realDonaldTrump
I've come to the conclusion based on way too many observations that the best way to become an influential economist is to not be an economist at all.
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One perk of working at the CEA (or in the WH more generally) not mentioned by
@JaminSpeer
@robseamans
@Claudia_Sahm
is regular access to the Presidential chocolates.
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If I am either the most conservative person you know or the most liberal or establishment person you know, you likely inhabit a political cocoon. Not trying to be harsh. Part of the problem is people don't listen to each other. So much yelling/imputation of bad motives. It's sad.
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Academic pet peeve: when I click on a link to a CV or paper and I get a popup to download the file instead of it opening in the browser for me to view.
#EconTwitter
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Many have looked at redistributive effects of inflation via balance sheets (i.e. due to heterogeneous portfolio composition), but what about heterogeneous wage adjustment across occupations/industries with different wage stickiness and cost or frequency of renegotiation?
@mdoepke
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How can people possibly call Javier Milei of Argentina a fascist with a straight face? What does it even mean to be a libertarian fascist? That seems like *the* definition of an oxymoron, considering that libertarianism is all about *reducing* the scope and power of the state.
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One thing every WH discovers sooner or later (esp in a crisis) is how much of an asset the CEA is to the econ policy process. Politics and values will always play a major role in priority-setting, but effective execution depends on sound, straight-shooting analysis.
#EconTwitter
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In a world of polarized cheerleading and demagoguery, it's nice to see reasoned analysis once in a while. From
@Brian_Riedl
:
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@AP4Liberty
@mcbridetd
Of course government jobs are jobs, but the more interesting question is whether those jobs are actually more *productive* than what the private sector would have done with the money had it not been taxed to begin with (highly doubtful in most cases).
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It’s my son’s 8th birthday today! He was born the November of my job market year. Exciting times back then!
#EconTwitter
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I’m very leery about univ presidents with no higher ed experience at all (eg CEO parachuting in), but it still strikes me that the actual competencies that make a successful univ president are only imperfectly correlated at best with those for being a top scholar.
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Reminder: the submission deadline for Midwest Macro in Logan, UT is less than a week away (Feb 15)! Several reasons to submit:
plenaries Hansen/Sahin/Sargent, amazing mountain scenery, and macro camaraderie discussing frontier research!
#econtwitter
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"Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn." - Ben Franklin
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Student debt forgiveness doesn’t make the debt just magically “disappear.” Instead, it converts it into national debt, seeing as the government will be forced to borrow more to cover its expenses now that it will be losing out on revenues from loan repayment it would have gotten.
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"Become the kind of leader that people would follow voluntarily, even if you had no title or position." - Brian Tracy
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I can happily report that I finally showed my kids Jurassic Park this past weekend. I’ve been waiting years for them to be old enough. Turned out as epic of an experience as I hoped. Plus, my oldest son coined a new term for it: scawesome (= scary + awesome).
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My 7 year old in the drive thru line: “Ugh, why is it called Sonic if they can’t do it very fast?”
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@AP4Liberty
@facebook
In the eyes of Facebook: Austin Petersen = alien invader bent on destroying Earth.
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There are many things I'm unsure of and still learning about, but I feel confident in saying that monetary policy should not be dictated by anybody's gut.
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Bernie Sanders is in serious need of corrective economics education. I am willing to provide to him whenever. I'll even charge free tuition.
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Was reminded again today (nothing to do w/me) about growing toxic political tribalism in econ profession. No-BS open-minded debate that puts sound methods over narrow ideology & partisan fealty make econ unique. Many good ppl but conformism & shrinking Overton window pose threat.
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@AP4Liberty
Maybe if we stopped auto deducting taxes from paychecks ppl would realize how much they're gouged & politicians' feet would be held to fire.
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Late flight. After landing, sat on tarmac for 25 min just to make connection even more interesting. Got to gate 20 min before next flight (keep in mind the gate doors close 15 min before departure). Full-on sprint across most of O’Hare. No dinner. Burning legs and lungs. Made it.
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