Zongyuan Zoe Liu
@ZongyuanZoeLiu
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Senior Fellow @cfr_org; Ph.D. CFA. Author of Sovereign Funds: How the CPC Finances Its Global Ambitions. Opinions my own. RT≠endorsement.
New York, NY
Joined April 2021
My latest @ForeignAffairs: Reversing China’s current trajectory would require nothing short of a time machine. The stimulus plans under discussion do not provide the kind of household financial support necessary to restore confidence in 🇨🇳 future. @CFR_org.
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My latest @ForeignPolicy piece is a product of my close examination of China's No. 1 Documents over the past 24 years.I concluded that the Party could endure setbacks of the chip war, but the stakes of food security are much higher for regime security.
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I am happy to share: my interactive tracker that visualizes China's overseas airport investment is now live @CFR_org 🛬✈️ Plz use "filter" on the map to play with it. Many thanks to my colleagues for their help! You can request data from me FOR FREE! 🆓
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🗺️ Please share: Data Update! My interactive map China’s global port investments has been updated. It now has 129 projects, 17 Chinese majority ownership.🔓FOR FREE: You can request data on the page below for your research!🌍🌏.via @CFR_org.
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When researching sovereign funds I collected data on China's overseas ports as some were funded by them. Really grateful for my colleagues's help @CFR_org. It shows where Chinese entities have invested, how, how much, and physical potential for naval use.
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As a big fan of the Odd Lots, I am honored to join @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway to discuss the fundamentals of the Chinese economy. Subscribe and listen to more episodes! Tracy & Joe always have interesting guests to discuss the most topical issues! @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS.
4 BIG STRUCTURAL ARE DEPRESSING THE CHINESE ECONOMY. On the brand new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I interview @ZongyuanZoeLiu about what's causing China's economic drag. We discuss:. - Debt.- Demand.- Demographics.- Decoupling.
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I spent some time studying China's pension funding and became deeply worried about the Party's expanding ambitions. Hard reality is that it simply does not have resources to prioritize both tech self-reliance and securing welfare for the elderly. @CFR_org.
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My book now has a cover and release date (6/20/2023). Thank you @pompqmoq @Harvard_Press for believing in my book. Special thanks to @BennSteil @Brad_Setser @shannonkoneil @JamesMLindsay and my mentors for their intellectual inspiration and support!🙏
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For the West China's recurring cycles of overcapacity is a long-term challenge that can't be solved simply by erecting new trade barriers. US needs a lower fence and tighter leash to win the strategic competition rather than fixating on strategies to limit China. @ForeignAffairs.
“The West should take steps to keep China firmly within the global trading system, using the incentives of the global market to steer Beijing toward more balanced growth and less heavy-handed industrial policies.”.
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My latest @ForeignPolicy analyzed how China's industrial policies, efficient banking system, network of people, and capital controls have unintentionally trapped China in America's fentanyl crisis. @CFR_org @CFR_China
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@MaxBoot pointed out that the balloon did not pose any actual threat to the United States. The real danger is the "dangerous and unwarranted" hysteria over the balloon.
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I had fun talking with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway yesterday about China's move to create an alternative system to reduce its vulnerabilities. China sees energy transition as an opportunity: petrodollar= if no petro, what happens to $? I select 4 of my research since 2022.
LOTS MORE: @tracyalloway and I had a great time chatting with @ZongyuanZoeLiu about the real, under-the-radar efforts China is making to build out an alternative to the dollar system.
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My latest @ForeignPolicy on "Xi-flation": While the root cause of China's economic challenges is the structure problems embedded in its growth model, Xi’s policy mistakes have mired the country in what I call “Xi-flation.” @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS.
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My esteemed colleague @BennSteil (from whom learned a lot) and I explained in a recent @ForeignAffairs article why China's consumption drive is unlikely to be successful. From Zero Covid to Zero Policy, politics dictates Party first and consumers second.
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President Xi and China's sovereign funds managers have all the reasons to worry whether #Putin is in control. Under Xi's leadership, the funds have partnered with Russian entities and have been used to strengthen Xi-Putin era China-Russia relations. Four examples in my new book:.
Officially released! My new book "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is about the geoeconomics of China's sovereign funds and FX reserves management. A 6-part thread of key arguments:.
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I had honor testifying before the @USCC_GOV again. China's economic growth slowdown & domestic economic wounds will not stop the CPC & Chinese gov from fortifying defense against potential Western sanctions. @CFR_org @CFR_RealEcon @CFR_Asia .via @CFR_org.
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The new Bloomberg report by @gdp1985 and the team is worth reading. They show evidence of China's continued progress in achieving tech advancement. The Party has experience dealing with international isolation to make tech breakthroughs, especially considering PRC 1949-1972.
Six years of US restrictions didn't slow China's tech ambitions. @tracyalloway and I talked to @RChoongWilkins and @gdp1985 about their new report on the success of China's 'Made In 2025' initiative and the ineffectiveness of American counter-efforts.
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While I did not get the Tradle game right today, I am very happy 😊 and sincerely grateful that my book Sovereign Funds received a great review in the WSJ, together with Beijing Rules by @BethanyAllenEbr
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I don't know why this is a sign of focusing on economy. An alternative interpretation is a sign of more control. Xi emphasizes financial security as national security. He is no stranger to using sovereign funds to finance his goals, especially facing tighter budget constraints.
Do close watchers of Chinese politics have any idea what this means? Why this happened now?. Curious.
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It is a great honor to be invited to discuss my book Sovereign Funds with a leading source on China @thewirechina co-founded by @DavidBarboza2 . @andypeaps and I discussed the activities of China's sovereign funds and we assessed their prospects in the western markets.
Our latest issue is live here: a fabulous cover piece on India's attempt to enter the race for semiconductor development (with some help from Foxconn), China's new restrictions on rare earths, a Q&A with @ZongyuanZoeLiu and more.
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China cannot export its way out of an economic slowdown or invest into an economic boom. The real challenge to China's covid recovery is its households. Challenges to the gov's expressed interest in prioritizing consumption are tremendous. @ForeignPolicy .
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.@JKynge topnotch analysis. "China is throwing in its lot with the largest and fastest-growing part of the world." In other words, China is taking a long position in growth stocks. (Next time, what about a panda instead of a dragon. just saying. 😄)
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Good work@washingtonpos withi input from my friend @wendyleutert.and her co-author @IBKardon. Really happy to see our independent works yielded some convergence. My sovereign funds research made me aware of how China finances overseas ports investments.
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I had the honor to join @JamesMLindsay on The President's Inbox @CFR_org to discuss the status of the Chinese economy. Really liked the conversation! Tune in, and SUBSCRIBE to the program! 👇🧐☺️
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China Strategy Initiative @CFR_org is launched! Congratulations to my colleague @RushDoshi on this great endeavor. I believe managing US-China relations is about managing competition, enhancing mutual understanding, empowering people-to-people changes, and enabling cooperation.
Happening NOW: Watch the @CFR_China Strategy Initiative launch with Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, CFR President Michael Froman, and experts @RushDoshi, Matt Pottinger, @ElbridgeColby, Bonny Lin, Maher Bitar, Tarun Chhabra, and @nakashimae:
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My latest @ForeignPolicy Beijing is trying to close economic vulnerabilities out of fear of U.S. containment. @CFR_Asia @CFR_org @CFR_WFP @CFR_CGS @CFR_Academic
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My latest @KoreaEconInst While the Yoon admin seeks to reduce supply chain dependence on China, Korean firms are partnering with Chinese suppliers (like cobalt suppliers) to build JVs in Korea and Morocco! Morocco has FTAs with both US and EU.
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.@michaelxpettis Always fun to read. I agree with Professor Pettis. Solving the debt problem in a low growth environment is a political issue. China's highly capable technocrats cannot address the political cause of the problem by only fiscal or monetary tools.
1/6.This, in my opinion, is why the issue will be politically so contentious: "'The underlying resistance is political,' said a senior state banker. 'Bridges and roads are built in response to calls for economic growth and poverty alleviation.'" .
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In my latest In-Brief @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS I argue politics, not supply-demand dynamics, will determine China’s economic prospects and its relationship with the rest of the world. Thank you @LindsayMaizland for helping with the pub! via @CFR_org.
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Great analysis by @Brad_Setser. In fact, SAFE deputy director and spokesperson Want Chunying acknowledged that once FX reserves are used for supporting Going Out strategies, they are no longer counted towards FX reserves. I explained this in my book too!.
A new blog with the details of how China has hid a significant portion of its reserves over the last 20 years. Technical, with tons of links to source documents.
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No better way to start the morning! I am honored and beyond happy to know @JKynge took the time to read my book and reviewed it! Really grateful for his time and attention to the subject! Thank you @JosephTorigian for sharing this good news with me. @pompqmoq @Alison_A_M @CFR_org.
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As someone who enjoys food, I find the subject of food security fascinating. Despite being the top grain producer in the world, China increasingly relies on imported food. via @CFR_org.
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Very insightful article by @jessicacweiss on the danger of U.S. foreign policy being overly consumed by anti-China obsessions. via @ForeignAffairs.
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If you are in San Diego and curious about how China finances its global ambitions, please join @21CenturyChina and me for a discussion! Details below👇 @CFR_org @CFR_CGS @CFR_Asia @CFR_Academic.
Join us on 10/5 @ 4pm PT to hear @ZongyuanZoeLiu from @CFR_org discuss how sovereign funds have supported #China’s rise by pursuing strategic assets and funding tech startups. RSVP:
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My latest @ForeignPolicy:China is using regional groups like the SCO and BRICS and small banks to hedge against sanctions. Small banks have initiated China-Russia financial alliance with the support of local government in China. @CFR_CGS @CFR_org @CFR_Asia.
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I previously researched and wrote about China's pension system and what the gov has done to fix its problems. Bloomberg reporters referenced my article published in 2023 via Foreign Policy. A paywall-free version is now available @CFR_org. 1/6🧵.
"As the Chinese society ages, China not only loses its comparative advantage in labor but also faces a severe pension funding challenge. Chinese leaders have competing priorities but they do not have the resources to fund them all," writes @ZongyuanZoeLiu.
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My latest piece for @ForeignPolicy analyzed how Chinese city commercial banks adopted the much envied SVB to finance China’s pursuit for tech self-reliance. China’s tech advancement is subject to inflation and competing demands facing the PBoC.
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Very honored to be part of the 'Odd Lots Live' on Election Eve in NYC with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway! Come to join us if you are in town! We have @jordanschnyc, @IrvingSwisher and of course my colleague @Brad_Setser, and more!!!!.
New guests!. Both @jordanschnyc and @ZongyuanZoeLiu have agreed to join our 'Odd Lots Live' Election Eve' event in NYC, for a chat on the big China issues facing the next administration. There are few tickets left, so grab them here.
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Honored to be on the same panel with @NBorstSF and Logan Wright @rhodium_group to testify on Aug 21.
Looking forward to this panel with @ZongyuanZoeLiu and Logan Wright on China's economic and financial risks on August 21.
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I had the privilege to write for @ProSyn on China's playbook to balance its climate commitment amid slower economic growth and rising geopolitical tensions: it strives to be a rulemaker and actively shapes the global green development agenda. @CFR_org @CFR_RealEcon @CFR_China.
China views the response to climate change as an opportunity to elevate its international status. By shaping the agenda on green development, it aims to be a rule-maker, rather than a rule-taker, writes @CFR_org's @ZongyuanZoeLiu.
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4.Jan 2024 @NoemaMag I explain how China attempts to seize the energy transition as an opportunity to reduce its vulnerability to the dollar-based system. Meanwhile the gov has been exploring how to increase liquidity and demand for rmb gov bonds.
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More than a year ag @ForeignPolicy published my article on the 4Ds (debt demand demographics and decoupling). I also had the honor to share my 4Ds framework on The President's Inbox podcast & the Odd Lots this past summer. Going into 2024, my argument & analysis still holds.
@ForeignPolicy I explained the 4 Ds that challenge CHN econ. Policymakers cannot command the economy to fully realize its growth potential even if they removed zero-Covid. Demand, debt, decoupling, and demographics do not bode well.
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This just came to me from Amazon! @YashengHuang I am excited to read this book and also look forward to having a conversation with one of the most authoritative scholars on Chinese political economy.🤩
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I am very happy that Financial Times @fDiIntelligence Seth O’Farrell @sofarrelll did a great review of my book. Much appreciate the careful read and the attention to SLFs - Sovereign Leveraged Funds🙏😊 @CFR_org @Harvard_Press @HarvardUPLondon.
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Related is @MaxBoot new book Reagan: His Life and Legend. Max did tons of interviews of people close to President Reagan & years of archival research. Max's new book is worth reading as we search for tools and strategies to win the great power competition.
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I explained @ForeignPolicy how village banks, online deposits, local gov special bonds, and debt-fueled growth are connected. Preventing runs on banks & social unrest is a battle of the multifront war against financial instability CN leaders have to win.
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One of my most favorite strategic thinkers in China Professor DA Wei @mawangcun1 interviews Rick Waters @watersrick who knows both the politics of procedures in major global capitals and the practicalities of boardroom battles. A good conversation between two good people! 😃.
Very pleased to interview @watersrick, the managing director of @EurasiaGroup China practice, former China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State. This is also my first try to host a podcast.
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Very excited to have a top China/Indo-Pacific expert @RushDoshi joining @CFR_org!!!!! 🤗🤗🤗.
I’ll also be joining the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow for China and the Indo-Pacific. I’m grateful to CFR President Mike Froman - as well as @JamesMLindsay and @shannonkoneil - for the opportunity to join the team.
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Holiday edition of The President's Inbox! I had fun chatting with @JamesMLindsay re the road ahead for US-China relations with President Trump's return to the WH. Jim and I had a fun conversation - tune in if you head to airport or on the road for the holidays! 😊.
🎧On this episode of The President's Inbox podcast, @ZongyuanZoeLiu sits down with @JamesMLindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in China and what his presidency will mean for the future of U.S.-China economic relations. Listen below ⬇️
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Such a pleasant surprise! I am honored and happy that my book SOVEREIGN FUNDS is listed as the top 10 book to read by @mariana_vieir1 @IAJournal_CH. Many thanks for taking the time! 😃.@CFR_org @CFR_Asia.
Top 10 Books: International Women’s Day 2024 📚✨. It is that time of the year when we celebrate women's rich contributions to International Relations that we have had the pleasure of reviewing. Check out the list by Book Reviews Editor @mariana_vieir1 👇.
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"Dark humour is just one of a rash of adverse indicators besetting China these days. A slowdown in economic growth is having a palpable impact on people’s lives . and families feeling poorer following a decline in the value of their homes since mid-2021.
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Many thanks @ForeignPolicy @BeijingPalmer @bobdavis187 for reviewing Sovereign Funds. It explains how China leveraged FX reserves to prevent domestic crises, boost industrial policies, & pursue strategic interests. It also explains why they can be China's strategic vulnerability.
A book by @ZongyuanZoeLiu provides a provocative answer for why continued engagement with Western capitalism and democracy hasn’t led to greater political and economic liberalization in China.
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In my latest for the Reviewing America Initiative @CFR_org, I argue there are multiple ways to bolster US critical minerals supply chains security for energy transition, but pushing China to be a disruptor is not one of them.
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Pleasantly surprised to see my book Sovereign Funds was reviewed by @ForeignAffairs. 😄@pompqmoq @Harvard_Press.
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With @LianaFix , we analyze Germany's taking the led in rebalacing a complex interdependent relationship with China as the global geostrategic landscape has changed. A five-part summary:.via @ForeignAffairs.
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My @CFR_org colleague @MaxBoot provides a compelling argument why the bipartisan hardline approach to China is one-sided and not the best approach to protect US interests.
The 1st meeting of @committeeonccp was impressively bipartisan. It was also disturbingly one-sided. The committee only heard from hard-liners. Utterly missing were experts who would have warned of the risks of reckless confrontation or advocated dialogue.
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My colleague @shannonkoneil new book is soon available! She brings "regions" back into the analysis of geoeconomics and supply chain security/resilience. As she correctly argues, the world is not flat. Regionalism has been the prevailing economic trend over the past four decades.
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@arkroeber has a good and succinct piece on China's real intent of stimulus on the FT. As he pointed out, China's vision remains unchanged:"technology and self-sufficiency matter more than growth and profits." via @FT.
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My colleague @BennSteil & Elisabeth Harding argue: currency swaps have become an important tool of China's financial statecraft. The PboC swaplines differ from the Fed's and their lack of transparency complicates global debt monitoring. via @BarronsOnline.
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Must read by @michaelxpettis. China's continued obsession with gov-led investment does not bode well for the much needed household consumption promotion. Major expansion in China’s share of global investment risks generating excessive global supply.
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In about 500 words @CFR_org I explained why I think the Chinese government will do big stimulus in Spring 2025 and why this does NOT mean abandoning self-reliance/sufficiency. The biggest challenge to the Chinese economy is not tariffs but comes at home.
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Great read by @JKynge & Keith Fray on China's network of FTAs as an alternative to WTO to protect its trade: China exports more to its FTA network than the world’s 4th & 5th biggest exporters, the Netherlands & Japan, did all over the world during 2022.
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We made 4 charts to exp why China's recovery hinges on its households. We estimated China's HH spending power is lowered by≈12 days' wages. It took 5 years for US CCI to recover from the GFC. China may experience a similar hangover effect. via @CFR_org.
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It's an honor to join @ChadBown @ChenDingding Prof. Li We and Prof. Tu Xinquan to discuss the path forward for U.S. - China trade and bilateral relations on Aug 31. Many thanks to @Diplomat_APAC & Intellisia Inst. for co-hosting this timely discussion. Join from the link below!.
4 years into the China-US trade war, and with tensions riding higher than ever, where does bilateral trade go from here? Join @ChenDingding @ChadBown Li Wei, @ZongyuanZoeLiu &Tu Xinquan, Aug 31 at 8 am EDT
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Many thanks @hancocktom for a great interview. CIC has a smaller global portfolio compared with SAFE-owned funds by AUMs. SAFE has a global network of funds via Buttonwood and other funds that manage about $1.5 trillion assets that are NOT included in official FX reserves.
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A true pleasure joining Kevin @kcold1 , author of the award-winning book "The Rise of Carry," on a discussion hosted by the resourceful @TopTradersLive to discuss Sovereign Levereaged Funds! @CFR_org @CFR_CGS @CFR_Asia.
In this episode, our guest @ZongyuanZoeLiu lifts the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. We discuss how they evolved and what purposes they serve for the Communist party. Tune in!
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@ForeignPolicy I explained the 4 Ds that challenge CHN econ. Policymakers cannot command the economy to fully realize its growth potential even if they removed zero-Covid. Demand, debt, decoupling, and demographics do not bode well.
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My college @BennSteil spent years researching how the Cold War trajectory could have been different and US domestic politics at that critical juncture. In "The World That Wasn’t" he shows us counterfactuals of the Cold War & the world today. via @CFR_org.
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Washington and Beijing often trade heated words…but both sides share an interest in stopping the illegal fentanyl trade…The U.S. and Chinese governments have the infrastructure and tools in place to work together to deal a severe blow. Full text
The harm done to China’s international image by its association with the fentanyl crisis vastly outweighs whatever related profits may accrue to its chemical manufacturing industry, columnist @ZongyuanZoeLiu writes.
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According to my colleague @BennSteil, in the coming decade the demographic challenge for China's economic growth at per capita level would be more severe than for the US or Japan.
Over the coming 10 years, we find that aging will knock a whopping 10% off China's *PER CAPITA* growth rate . via @CFR_org.
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Tomorrow please join us on a Twitter space discussion with @iandenisjohnson @JoshKurlantzick @davidmsacks and me for a conversation on the broader impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on Asian geopolitics and geoeconomics.
What does Russia's war in Ukraine mean for China and Taiwan? Join us on @TwitterSpaces for a conversation with experts @iandenisjohnson, @ZongyuanZoeLiu , @DavidMSacks1, and @JoshKurlantzick tomorrow at 2:30pm ET. 📅 Set a reminder ⬇️
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