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Zongyuan Zoe Liu Profile
Zongyuan Zoe Liu

@ZongyuanZoeLiu

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Senior Fellow @cfr_org; Ph.D. CFA. Author of Sovereign Funds: How the CPC Finances Its Global Ambitions. Opinions my own. RT≠endorsement.

New York, NY
Joined April 2021
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Officially released! My new book "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is about the geoeconomics of China's sovereign funds and FX reserves management. A 6-part thread of key arguments:.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
My latest @ForeignAffairs: Reversing China’s current trajectory would require nothing short of a time machine. The stimulus plans under discussion do not provide the kind of household financial support necessary to restore confidence in 🇨🇳 future. @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My latest @ForeignPolicy piece is a product of my close examination of China's No. 1 Documents over the past 24 years.I concluded that the Party could endure setbacks of the chip war, but the stakes of food security are much higher for regime security.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
My update on China's de-dollarization @NoemaMag. China sees energy transition as an opportunity to increase RMB's role in commodities pricing & crossborder settlements. It also works to increase financial market's demand for RMB bonds. @CFR_org @CFR_Asia .
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
17 days
I am happy to share: my interactive tracker that visualizes China's overseas airport investment is now live @CFR_org 🛬✈️ Plz use "filter" on the map to play with it. Many thanks to my colleagues for their help! You can request data from me FOR FREE! 🆓
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
5 months
🗺️ Please share: Data Update! My interactive map China’s global port investments has been updated. It now has 129 projects, 17 Chinese majority ownership.🔓FOR FREE: You can request data on the page below for your research!🌍🌏.via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
When researching sovereign funds I collected data on China's overseas ports as some were funded by them. Really grateful for my colleagues's help @CFR_org. It shows where Chinese entities have invested, how, how much, and physical potential for naval use.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
As a big fan of the Odd Lots, I am honored to join @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway to discuss the fundamentals of the Chinese economy. Subscribe and listen to more episodes! Tracy & Joe always have interesting guests to discuss the most topical issues! @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS.
@TheStalwart
Joe Weisenthal
1 year
4 BIG STRUCTURAL ARE DEPRESSING THE CHINESE ECONOMY. On the brand new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I interview @ZongyuanZoeLiu about what's causing China's economic drag. We discuss:. - Debt.- Demand.- Demographics.- Decoupling.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
I went through Evergrande's annual reports to find what went wrong. 3 red lines worsened its low-proft highly-leveraged expansion. As a business it prioritized expansion fast over growing profits. Its fall has bigger implications. @CFR_org . via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
I spent some time studying China's pension funding and became deeply worried about the Party's expanding ambitions. Hard reality is that it simply does not have resources to prioritize both tech self-reliance and securing welfare for the elderly. @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Finally - and I promise - SLFs and their strategic investments are NOT uncompromised strength. They have triggered enhanced foreign investment screening reviews and can be subjects of sanctions in times of extreme geopolitical conditions. The book is better than my thread!😀.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
2. With the exception of the Silk Road Fund, most of China's SLFs were not created with geoeconomic ambitions but in response to crises. As they evolve, Central Huijin, CIC, and SAFE-affiliated funds have financed the Party's shifting priorities ad expanding geoeconomic goals.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
1. Sovereign Leveraged Funds (SLFs): China's sovereign funds are different from commodity-based SWFs b/c their capitalizations have used either explicit or implicit leverage. China's experience with SLFs shows to the world how a state without commodity wealth can have SLFs.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
4. Internationally, China’s SLFs have allowed the Party-State to extract the benefits of participation in global markets organized around the norms of shareholder capitalism without the Chinese state relinquishing its control over strategic firms and industries.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My book now has a cover and release date (6/20/2023). Thank you @pompqmoq @Harvard_Press for believing in my book. Special thanks to @BennSteil @Brad_Setser @shannonkoneil @JamesMLindsay and my mentors for their intellectual inspiration and support!🙏
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
3. President Xi has doubled down on strategically using SLFs at home and abroad to finance China's industrial policies, pursuing tech advancement and self-reliance, acquiring overseas critical minerals, and subtly promoting the use of renminbi and de-dollarization.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
5. SLFs have supported China’s industrial policies by financing the state’s procurement of strategic overseas assets, bankrolling Chinese enterprises’ mergers and acquisitions abroad, and sponsoring the development of indigenous Chinese technology startups.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
For the West China's recurring cycles of overcapacity is a long-term challenge that can't be solved simply by erecting new trade barriers. US needs a lower fence and tighter leash to win the strategic competition rather than fixating on strategies to limit China. @ForeignAffairs.
@ForeignAffairs
Foreign Affairs
6 months
“The West should take steps to keep China firmly within the global trading system, using the incentives of the global market to steer Beijing toward more balanced growth and less heavy-handed industrial policies.”.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
7 months
My latest @ForeignPolicy analyzed how China's industrial policies, efficient banking system, network of people, and capital controls have unintentionally trapped China in America's fentanyl crisis. @CFR_org @CFR_China
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
6a) SLFs shape markets and advance the state’s interests in three primary ways. First, they are created to mobilize capital that otherwise cannot be easily accessed by the state due to existing domestic regulatory constraints or institutional deficiencies.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
6c) Thirdly, SLFs also serve as agents of the state to practice noncoercive means of financial statecraft in global markets.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
6b) Second, SLFs are "financiers of reliable resort” to support strategic industries and iconic national champions by providing a ready supply of cheap capital, crucial in times of liquidity shortage or when the home industry needs capital to fend off hostile foreign takeovers.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
@MaxBoot pointed out that the balloon did not pose any actual threat to the United States. The real danger is the "dangerous and unwarranted" hysteria over the balloon.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
I had fun talking with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway yesterday about China's move to create an alternative system to reduce its vulnerabilities. China sees energy transition as an opportunity: petrodollar= if no petro, what happens to $? I select 4 of my research since 2022.
@TheStalwart
Joe Weisenthal
1 year
LOTS MORE: @tracyalloway and I had a great time chatting with @ZongyuanZoeLiu about the real, under-the-radar efforts China is making to build out an alternative to the dollar system.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
My latest @ForeignPolicy on "Xi-flation": While the root cause of China's economic challenges is the structure problems embedded in its growth model, Xi’s policy mistakes have mired the country in what I call “Xi-flation.” @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My esteemed colleague @BennSteil (from whom learned a lot) and I explained in a recent @ForeignAffairs article why China's consumption drive is unlikely to be successful. From Zero Covid to Zero Policy, politics dictates Party first and consumers second.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
President Xi and China's sovereign funds managers have all the reasons to worry whether #Putin is in control. Under Xi's leadership, the funds have partnered with Russian entities and have been used to strengthen Xi-Putin era China-Russia relations. Four examples in my new book:.
@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Officially released! My new book "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is about the geoeconomics of China's sovereign funds and FX reserves management. A 6-part thread of key arguments:.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
8 months
I had honor testifying before the @USCC_GOV again. China's economic growth slowdown & domestic economic wounds will not stop the CPC & Chinese gov from fortifying defense against potential Western sanctions. @CFR_org @CFR_RealEcon @CFR_Asia .via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
The new Bloomberg report by @gdp1985 and the team is worth reading. They show evidence of China's continued progress in achieving tech advancement. The Party has experience dealing with international isolation to make tech breakthroughs, especially considering PRC 1949-1972.
@TheStalwart
Joe Weisenthal
3 months
Six years of US restrictions didn't slow China's tech ambitions. @tracyalloway and I talked to @RChoongWilkins and @gdp1985 about their new report on the success of China's 'Made In 2025' initiative and the ineffectiveness of American counter-efforts.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
While I did not get the Tradle game right today, I am very happy 😊 and sincerely grateful that my book Sovereign Funds received a great review in the WSJ, together with Beijing Rules by @BethanyAllenEbr
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
4/8 If the goal is to outcompete China, US should focus on what the American system is already better at: innovation, market disruption, and intensive use of private capital. Fixating on strategies to restrict China's economic advantages risks neglecting its own strengths.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
I don't know why this is a sign of focusing on economy. An alternative interpretation is a sign of more control. Xi emphasizes financial security as national security. He is no stranger to using sovereign funds to finance his goals, especially facing tighter budget constraints.
@Brad_Setser
Brad Setser
1 year
Do close watchers of Chinese politics have any idea what this means? Why this happened now?. Curious.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
It is a great honor to be invited to discuss my book Sovereign Funds with a leading source on China @thewirechina co-founded by @DavidBarboza2 . @andypeaps and I discussed the activities of China's sovereign funds and we assessed their prospects in the western markets.
@DavidBarboza2
David Barboza
2 years
Our latest issue is live here: a fabulous cover piece on India's attempt to enter the race for semiconductor development (with some help from Foxconn), China's new restrictions on rare earths, a Q&A with @ZongyuanZoeLiu and more.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
China cannot export its way out of an economic slowdown or invest into an economic boom. The real challenge to China's covid recovery is its households. Challenges to the gov's expressed interest in prioritizing consumption are tremendous. @ForeignPolicy .
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
.@JKynge topnotch analysis. "China is throwing in its lot with the largest and fastest-growing part of the world." In other words, China is taking a long position in growth stocks. (Next time, what about a panda instead of a dragon. just saying. 😄)
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Good work@washingtonpos withi input from my friend @wendyleutert.and her co-author @IBKardon. Really happy to see our independent works yielded some convergence. My sovereign funds research made me aware of how China finances overseas ports investments.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
I had the honor to join @JamesMLindsay on The President's Inbox @CFR_org to discuss the status of the Chinese economy. Really liked the conversation! Tune in, and SUBSCRIBE to the program! 👇🧐☺️
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
7 months
China Strategy Initiative @CFR_org is launched! Congratulations to my colleague @RushDoshi on this great endeavor. I believe managing US-China relations is about managing competition, enhancing mutual understanding, empowering people-to-people changes, and enabling cooperation.
@CFR_org
Council on Foreign Relations
7 months
Happening NOW: Watch the @CFR_China Strategy Initiative launch with Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, CFR President Michael Froman, and experts @RushDoshi, Matt Pottinger, @ElbridgeColby, Bonny Lin, Maher Bitar, Tarun Chhabra, and @nakashimae:
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 years
My latest @ForeignPolicy Beijing is trying to close economic vulnerabilities out of fear of U.S. containment. @CFR_Asia @CFR_org @CFR_WFP @CFR_CGS @CFR_Academic
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
My latest @KoreaEconInst While the Yoon admin seeks to reduce supply chain dependence on China, Korean firms are partnering with Chinese suppliers (like cobalt suppliers) to build JVs in Korea and Morocco! Morocco has FTAs with both US and EU.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
My latest @CFR_org: why there are reasons for optimism re tripling renewables capacity by 2030, and why I am worried we may not get there: funding, cost uncertainty, labor shortage, & great power competition (geopolitics) @CFR_CGS @CFR_Asia .via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
.@michaelxpettis Always fun to read. I agree with Professor Pettis. Solving the debt problem in a low growth environment is a political issue. China's highly capable technocrats cannot address the political cause of the problem by only fiscal or monetary tools.
@michaelxpettis
Michael Pettis
1 year
1/6.This, in my opinion, is why the issue will be politically so contentious: "'The underlying resistance is political,' said a senior state banker. 'Bridges and roads are built in response to calls for economic growth and poverty alleviation.'" .
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
In my latest In-Brief @CFR_org @CFR_Asia @CFR_CGS I argue politics, not supply-demand dynamics, will determine China’s economic prospects and its relationship with the rest of the world. Thank you @LindsayMaizland for helping with the pub! via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Great analysis by @Brad_Setser. In fact, SAFE deputy director and spokesperson Want Chunying acknowledged that once FX reserves are used for supporting Going Out strategies, they are no longer counted towards FX reserves. I explained this in my book too!.
@Brad_Setser
Brad Setser
2 years
A new blog with the details of how China has hid a significant portion of its reserves over the last 20 years. Technical, with tons of links to source documents.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
No better way to start the morning! I am honored and beyond happy to know @JKynge took the time to read my book and reviewed it! Really grateful for his time and attention to the subject! Thank you @JosephTorigian for sharing this good news with me. @pompqmoq @Alison_A_M @CFR_org.
@JKynge
James Kynge
2 years
My review of Zongyuan Zoe Liu’s excellent book on Chinese sovereign wealth funds.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
As someone who enjoys food, I find the subject of food security fascinating. Despite being the top grain producer in the world, China increasingly relies on imported food. via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Very insightful article by @jessicacweiss on the danger of U.S. foreign policy being overly consumed by anti-China obsessions. via @ForeignAffairs.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
If you are in San Diego and curious about how China finances its global ambitions, please join @21CenturyChina and me for a discussion! Details below👇 @CFR_org @CFR_CGS @CFR_Asia @CFR_Academic.
@21CenturyChina
21st Century China
1 year
Join us on 10/5 @ 4pm PT to hear @ZongyuanZoeLiu from @CFR_org discuss how sovereign funds have supported #China’s rise by pursuing strategic assets and funding tech startups. RSVP:
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My latest @ForeignPolicy:China is using regional groups like the SCO and BRICS and small banks to hedge against sanctions. Small banks have initiated China-Russia financial alliance with the support of local government in China. @CFR_CGS @CFR_org @CFR_Asia.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
20 days
I previously researched and wrote about China's pension system and what the gov has done to fix its problems. Bloomberg reporters referenced my article published in 2023 via Foreign Policy. A paywall-free version is now available @CFR_org. 1/6🧵.
@CFR_org
Council on Foreign Relations
20 days
"As the Chinese society ages, China not only loses its comparative advantage in labor but also faces a severe pension funding challenge. Chinese leaders have competing priorities but they do not have the resources to fund them all," writes @ZongyuanZoeLiu.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My latest piece for @ForeignPolicy analyzed how Chinese city commercial banks adopted the much envied SVB to finance China’s pursuit for tech self-reliance. China’s tech advancement is subject to inflation and competing demands facing the PBoC.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
Very honored to be part of the 'Odd Lots Live' on Election Eve in NYC with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway! Come to join us if you are in town! We have @jordanschnyc, @IrvingSwisher and of course my colleague @Brad_Setser, and more!!!!.
@TheStalwart
Joe Weisenthal
3 months
New guests!. Both @jordanschnyc and @ZongyuanZoeLiu have agreed to join our 'Odd Lots Live' Election Eve' event in NYC, for a chat on the big China issues facing the next administration. There are few tickets left, so grab them here.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Honored to be on the same panel with @NBorstSF and Logan Wright @rhodium_group to testify on Aug 21.
@NBorstSF
Nicholas Borst
1 year
Looking forward to this panel with @ZongyuanZoeLiu and Logan Wright on China's economic and financial risks on August 21.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
4 months
I had the privilege to write for @ProSyn on China's playbook to balance its climate commitment amid slower economic growth and rising geopolitical tensions: it strives to be a rulemaker and actively shapes the global green development agenda. @CFR_org @CFR_RealEcon @CFR_China.
@ProSyn
Project Syndicate
4 months
China views the response to climate change as an opportunity to elevate its international status. By shaping the agenda on green development, it aims to be a rule-maker, rather than a rule-taker, writes @CFR_org's @ZongyuanZoeLiu.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
4.Jan 2024 @NoemaMag I explain how China attempts to seize the energy transition as an opportunity to reduce its vulnerability to the dollar-based system. Meanwhile the gov has been exploring how to increase liquidity and demand for rmb gov bonds.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
“While pilot trials of e-CNY started in 2019, convincing Chinese consumers to use the digital currency has proved to be an uphill battle, and authorities have repeatedly tapped China’s mobile payment giants to promote the country’s digital fiat money.”
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
More than a year ag @ForeignPolicy published my article on the 4Ds (debt demand demographics and decoupling). I also had the honor to share my 4Ds framework on The President's Inbox podcast & the Odd Lots this past summer. Going into 2024, my argument & analysis still holds.
@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
@ForeignPolicy I explained the 4 Ds that challenge CHN econ. Policymakers cannot command the economy to fully realize its growth potential even if they removed zero-Covid. Demand, debt, decoupling, and demographics do not bode well.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
This just came to me from Amazon! @YashengHuang I am excited to read this book and also look forward to having a conversation with one of the most authoritative scholars on Chinese political economy.🤩
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
I am very happy that Financial Times @fDiIntelligence Seth O’Farrell @sofarrelll did a great review of my book. Much appreciate the careful read and the attention to SLFs - Sovereign Leveraged Funds🙏😊 @CFR_org @Harvard_Press @HarvardUPLondon.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
5 months
Related is @MaxBoot new book Reagan: His Life and Legend. Max did tons of interviews of people close to President Reagan & years of archival research. Max's new book is worth reading as we search for tools and strategies to win the great power competition.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 years
I explained @ForeignPolicy how village banks, online deposits, local gov special bonds, and debt-fueled growth are connected. Preventing runs on banks & social unrest is a battle of the multifront war against financial instability CN leaders have to win.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
4 months
One of my most favorite strategic thinkers in China Professor DA Wei @mawangcun1 interviews Rick Waters @watersrick who knows both the politics of procedures in major global capitals and the practicalities of boardroom battles. A good conversation between two good people! 😃.
@mawangcun1
DA Wei @Tsinghua 达巍
4 months
Very pleased to interview @watersrick, the managing director of @EurasiaGroup China practice, former China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State. This is also my first try to host a podcast.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
11 months
Very excited to have a top China/Indo-Pacific expert @RushDoshi joining @CFR_org!!!!! 🤗🤗🤗.
@RushDoshi
Rush Doshi
11 months
I’ll also be joining the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow for China and the Indo-Pacific. I’m grateful to CFR President Mike Froman - as well as @JamesMLindsay and @shannonkoneil - for the opportunity to join the team.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 months
Holiday edition of The President's Inbox! I had fun chatting with @JamesMLindsay re the road ahead for US-China relations with President Trump's return to the WH. Jim and I had a fun conversation - tune in if you head to airport or on the road for the holidays! 😊.
@CFR_org
Council on Foreign Relations
2 months
🎧On this episode of The President's Inbox podcast, @ZongyuanZoeLiu sits down with @JamesMLindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in China and what his presidency will mean for the future of U.S.-China economic relations. Listen below ⬇️
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
"By tightening their wallets and prioritizing savings, they effectively express a quiet but potent vote of no confidence in the country’s direction.".
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
11 months
Such a pleasant surprise! I am honored and happy that my book SOVEREIGN FUNDS is listed as the top 10 book to read by @mariana_vieir1 @IAJournal_CH. Many thanks for taking the time! 😃.@CFR_org @CFR_Asia.
@IAJournal_CH
International Affairs
11 months
Top 10 Books: International Women’s Day 2024 📚✨. It is that time of the year when we celebrate women's rich contributions to International Relations that we have had the pleasure of reviewing. Check out the list by Book Reviews Editor @mariana_vieir1 👇.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
"Dark humour is just one of a rash of adverse indicators besetting China these days. A slowdown in economic growth is having a palpable impact on people’s lives . and families feeling poorer following a decline in the value of their homes since mid-2021.
@JKynge
James Kynge
1 year
Soviet-style jokes are one sign of a creeping cynicism.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
7 months
Many thanks @ForeignPolicy @BeijingPalmer @bobdavis187 for reviewing Sovereign Funds. It explains how China leveraged FX reserves to prevent domestic crises, boost industrial policies, & pursue strategic interests. It also explains why they can be China's strategic vulnerability.
@ForeignPolicy
Foreign Policy
7 months
A book by @ZongyuanZoeLiu provides a provocative answer for why continued engagement with Western capitalism and democracy hasn’t led to greater political and economic liberalization in China.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Shanghai Exchange and Saudi Exchange signed cooperation MoU to collaborate on a wide range of things including fintech, data exchange, ESG, etc. This reflects the trend of alternative financial markets and instruments development and will likely drive demand for different assets.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
In my latest for the Reviewing America Initiative @CFR_org, I argue there are multiple ways to bolster US critical minerals supply chains security for energy transition, but pushing China to be a disruptor is not one of them.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Pleasantly surprised to see my book Sovereign Funds was reviewed by @ForeignAffairs. 😄@pompqmoq @Harvard_Press.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
After months of negotiations, China accepted the Russian state energy company Inter RAO's decision to increase China-bound electricity export price by 7% starting from 2024, and insisted on settling using RMB. Inter RAO may cut supply if China does not accept price increase.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
With @LianaFix , we analyze Germany's taking the led in rebalacing a complex interdependent relationship with China as the global geostrategic landscape has changed. A five-part summary:.via @ForeignAffairs.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My @CFR_org colleague @MaxBoot provides a compelling argument why the bipartisan hardline approach to China is one-sided and not the best approach to protect US interests.
@MaxBoot
Max Boot 🇺🇦🇺🇸
2 years
The 1st meeting of @committeeonccp was impressively bipartisan. It was also disturbingly one-sided. The committee only heard from hard-liners. Utterly missing were experts who would have warned of the risks of reckless confrontation or advocated dialogue.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
My colleague @shannonkoneil new book is soon available! She brings "regions" back into the analysis of geoeconomics and supply chain security/resilience. As she correctly argues, the world is not flat. Regionalism has been the prevailing economic trend over the past four decades.
@shannonkoneil
Shannon O'Neil
2 years
So these arrived today…
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
@arkroeber has a good and succinct piece on China's real intent of stimulus on the FT. As he pointed out, China's vision remains unchanged:"technology and self-sufficiency matter more than growth and profits." via @FT.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Shockingly sad. .
@tongbingxue
China in Pictures
1 year
China's former PM Li Keqiang died from heart attack at ten past midnight this morning in Shanghai, at age of 68. Student Li (right 2), in Peking University, 1978.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
4 months
My colleague @BennSteil & Elisabeth Harding argue: currency swaps have become an important tool of China's financial statecraft. The PboC swaplines differ from the Fed's and their lack of transparency complicates global debt monitoring. via @BarronsOnline.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Must read by @michaelxpettis. China's continued obsession with gov-led investment does not bode well for the much needed household consumption promotion. Major expansion in China’s share of global investment risks generating excessive global supply.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Removing the "burden" of English exams as a must-have for a college degree sends a bad signal but the actual impact may not be as bad as one may think. Having such exam certificates does not mean one can do research in English or appreciate English papers or movies.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
10 days
In about 500 words @CFR_org I explained why I think the Chinese government will do big stimulus in Spring 2025 and why this does NOT mean abandoning self-reliance/sufficiency. The biggest challenge to the Chinese economy is not tariffs but comes at home.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
11 months
Great read by @JKynge & Keith Fray on China's network of FTAs as an alternative to WTO to protect its trade: China exports more to its FTA network than the world’s 4th & 5th biggest exporters, the Netherlands & Japan, did all over the world during 2022.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
We made 4 charts to exp why China's recovery hinges on its households. We estimated China's HH spending power is lowered by≈12 days' wages. It took 5 years for US CCI to recover from the GFC. China may experience a similar hangover effect. via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
It's an honor to join @ChadBown @ChenDingding Prof. Li We and Prof. Tu Xinquan to discuss the path forward for U.S. - China trade and bilateral relations on Aug 31. Many thanks to @Diplomat_APAC & Intellisia Inst. for co-hosting this timely discussion. Join from the link below!.
@Diplomat_APAC
The Diplomat
2 years
4 years into the China-US trade war, and with tensions riding higher than ever, where does bilateral trade go from here? Join @ChenDingding @ChadBown Li Wei, @ZongyuanZoeLiu &Tu Xinquan, Aug 31 at 8 am EDT
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
Many thanks @hancocktom for a great interview. CIC has a smaller global portfolio compared with SAFE-owned funds by AUMs. SAFE has a global network of funds via Buttonwood and other funds that manage about $1.5 trillion assets that are NOT included in official FX reserves.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
1/8 Even if the West were able to limit the amount of Chinese exports to western markets, it would not unravel the structural problems that have accumulated in China over decades of privileging industrial investment. Any course correction will take years of sustained adjustments.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
@calder_walton @TXMCtrades @matthew_pines My SPIES comes home tomorrow! 😊.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
8/8 If US sticks to current path and continues to head toward a trade war, it may inadvertently cause Beijing to double down on the industrial policies that are causing overcapacity in the first place. In the long run this would be as bad for the West as it would be for China.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
The next U.S. administration will face a China struggling with slowing economic growth, an uneasy middle class, and a leader who seems more committed to building a world-class military than a prosperous society.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
As it watches China’s stimulus play out & Beijing’s likely inability to fix the country’s underlying economic troubles, Washington should avoid becoming so fixated on perceived China threat that it overlooks potential opportunities to redefine US-China relations in the future.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
Central Hujin, one of China's sovereign funds, would continue to increase its holdings of four major state-owned commercial banks (工农中建). Previously it supported Chinese market six times (Sep 2008,Oct 2009, Nov 2011, Oct 2012, June 2013, Aug 2015) 1/4.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
President Xi's disapproval of Welfareism is available on Qiushi website: "正确认识和把握我国发展重大理论和实践问题"
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
A true pleasure joining Kevin @kcold1 , author of the award-winning book "The Rise of Carry," on a discussion hosted by the resourceful @TopTradersLive to discuss Sovereign Levereaged Funds! @CFR_org @CFR_CGS @CFR_Asia.
@TopTradersLive
TopTradersLive.com
1 year
In this episode, our guest @ZongyuanZoeLiu lifts the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. We discuss how they evolved and what purposes they serve for the Communist party. Tune in!
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
2 years
@ForeignPolicy I explained the 4 Ds that challenge CHN econ. Policymakers cannot command the economy to fully realize its growth potential even if they removed zero-Covid. Demand, debt, decoupling, and demographics do not bode well.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
1 year
My college @BennSteil spent years researching how the Cold War trajectory could have been different and US domestic politics at that critical juncture. In "The World That Wasn’t" he shows us counterfactuals of the Cold War & the world today. via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
Washington and Beijing often trade heated words…but both sides share an interest in stopping the illegal fentanyl trade…The U.S. and Chinese governments have the infrastructure and tools in place to work together to deal a severe blow. Full text
@ForeignPolicy
Foreign Policy
7 months
The harm done to China’s international image by its association with the fentanyl crisis vastly outweighs whatever related profits may accrue to its chemical manufacturing industry, columnist @ZongyuanZoeLiu writes.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
5 months
According to my colleague @BennSteil, in the coming decade the demographic challenge for China's economic growth at per capita level would be more severe than for the US or Japan.
@BennSteil
Benn Steil
5 months
Over the coming 10 years, we find that aging will knock a whopping 10% off China's *PER CAPITA* growth rate . via @CFR_org.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
6 months
2/8 Chinese leader's emphasis on self-sufficiency has increased rather than decreased the pressures leading to structural overcapacity. US should recognize that China's overcapacity is exacerbated by China's pursuit of self-sufficiency to reduce its strategic vulnerabilities.
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 years
Tomorrow please join us on a Twitter space discussion with @iandenisjohnson @JoshKurlantzick @davidmsacks and me for a conversation on the broader impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on Asian geopolitics and geoeconomics.
@CFR_org
Council on Foreign Relations
3 years
What does Russia's war in Ukraine mean for China and Taiwan? Join us on @TwitterSpaces for a conversation with experts @iandenisjohnson, @ZongyuanZoeLiu , @DavidMSacks1, and @JoshKurlantzick tomorrow at 2:30pm ET. 📅 Set a reminder ⬇️
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@ZongyuanZoeLiu
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
3 months
In short: much of the latest stimulus seems aimed at shoring up the economy’s weakest points just enough to signal that the party has not abandoned its role as a good steward of the economy and remains committed to upholding its end of China’s social contract.
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