Will Weaver 🌧️
@WillWeatherRVA
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#RVA | #LetsGoVCU | 💍 @Kari_Bear | #ActuallyAutistic | He/him | Weather enthusiast, not a meteorologist | Account dedicated to weather, main is @WillWeaverRVA
Richmond, VA
Joined May 2023
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A possible harbinger of the
#hurricane
season to come: although the ITCZ is currently in its normal springtime position near the equator, it is VERY convectively active due to anomalously warm SSTs. Those warmer SSTs should creep north along with the ITCZ in the next few weeks.
2
14
61
@MichaelRLowry
@EricBlake12
Strongest on record to hit Acapulco had winds of 75 kts. Now they're staring down perhaps a 145-150 kt storm. Terrifying stuff.
2
3
54
#Beryl
(
#02L
) has formed the dreaded pinhole eye. The
#hurricane
continued rapidly strengthening overnight and the eye has begun clearing out. This is an extremely dangerous situation for parts of the Lesser Antilles, including
#Barbados
. Cat 5 status is definitely in play.
1
15
50
Hurricane season is still 5 weeks away, and there are some reminders that it's approaching, namely this cute little gale-force low in the far eastern Atlantic. It's not producing much convection and will likely degenerate into a trough in a day or two.
1
8
44
This little storm force low out in the North Atlantic is trying its hardest to be a subtropical cyclone. Hmm.
@Weathernerds
@pppapin
@NHC_Atlantic
1
8
32
ATL: The models are also hinting at the potential for another wave currently S of Cabo Verde Islands to develop into a TC over the weekend into early next week. It's too early to say for sure, though it will eventually encounter the same hostile environment
#94L
is currently in.
1
4
36
The healthy tropical wave in the central
#Atlantic
is now invest
#95L
. The models are... um... enthusiastic about its chances, although the eastern
#Caribbean
will likely not be favorable for development. Still, worth watching, but way too early to speculate on it.
1
4
36
The Pacific
#hurricane
season begins on Wednesday, and it's likely to get off to an early start. A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec could consolidate and become a tropical cyclone by this weekend. Too soon to say if it's a land threat.
2
6
34
@hurricanetrack
The number of people responding to heat-related records being shattered with "iT's sUMmEr" is extremely irritating. Ryan Maue is egging them on, too.
2
2
32
Recon has found evidence of a very, very tenuous closed circulation in invest
#92L
, with weak Wly winds S of the center. Flight level winds elsewhere suggest a 30-35 kt system, so the question is whether those W winds are enough to call this a tropical cyclone. Might not be.
1
6
28
Tropical Cyclone
#Hamoon
(
#06B
) is a potential humanitarian catastrophe in the making. It is rapidly intensifying, defying JTWC and IMD forecasts, and it appears headed for
#Bangladesh
. Hamoon could produce catastrophic storm surge flooding over a wide area.
2
8
27
Invest
#95L
is looking good for a tropical system in the MDR in June. Low cloud lines indicate that a circulation is spinning up and convection has consolidated somewhat, with good equatorward outflow. There is a high likelihood this becomes a TD or TS over the weekend. 1/2
1
3
28
#Otis
(
#18E
) has become a Category 5
#hurricane
. Only 2015's Patricia has intensified faster. This is a potentially catastrophic situation: no hurricanes anywhere close to this intensity have ever hit the densely populated
#Acapulco
metro area. This is very, very bad indeed.
0
11
28
.
@NHC_Atlantic
has issued a special tropical weather outlook for the cute little swirly off in the eastern Atlantic (NW of the Cabo Verde Islands).
This system is located in a highly unfavorable environment and is unlikely to develop before stronger deep-layer shear rips it up.
0
6
20
The 18Z ATCF file has upgraded
#91L
to system AL01. It has a "disturbance" tag, so I would expect to see warnings on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (
#01L
) at 4pm CDT. Winds are 35 kts, pressure is 1001 mb.
#txwx
#lawx
#hurricane
0
6
25
#Beryl
(
#02L
) has weakened to a Category 4
#hurricane
as it passes S of Hispaniola. It is feeling strong shear that is typical in this part of the Caribbean this time of year. Although the core is trying to resist the shear, Beryl should slowly weaken during the next day or two.
1
6
24
The monsoonal mess (
#habagat
) over the
#Philippines
continues, with not less than 4 areas of potential TC formation during the next week. Invests
#95W
and
#97W
over
#Luzon
should coalesce into a single TD this weekend, with some additional activity along the edges of the gyre.
0
4
23
#StormDaniel
, a bonafide TC in the Mediterranean Sea, has resulted in 2,500+ dead and over $2.5b in damage, making it the deadliest and costliest "
#medicane
" in history.
There needs to be a concerted effort to create a warning structure for these storms.
@WMO
@NHC_Atlantic
1
9
23
WPAC: Some early-season monsoonal mess continues to brew in the eastern Philippine Sea. A large, complex low (invests
#90W
and
#92W
) is likely to consolidate through the end of the week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation by this weekend.
#Philippines
#Palau
1
4
22
#Hurricane
#Beryl
(
#02L
) is undergoing structural changes, likely due to lessening shear. The intense convection in the CDO has wrapped its way around the core, and the eye is becoming more apparent. If this trend continues, I would expect a rapid intensification phase tonight.
0
4
21
I am flabbergasted as to why JTWC continues to assess
#Gaemi
(
#05W
) as a 60 kt TS - the typically VERY conservative JMA has it as a 75 kt
#typhoon
. It's sheared, but it has a well defined core and eye, and some intense convection is wrapping around the center.
@TropicalTidbits
?
1
5
21
Here's a very interesting little low in the far southeastern Atlantic, southwest of South Africa, embedded within a larger extratropical low. If not for the fact that SSTs here are quite cold, we'd be talking about a subtropical or tropical cyclone.
2
5
21
#Beryl
(
#02L
) is approaching
#Jamaica
. Despite being blasted by northwesterly wind shear, the
#hurricane
remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 with winds of 125 kts (145 mph). Beryl will pass very close to the southern coast of Jamaica later today.
0
3
20
Tropical Storm
#Prapiroon
(
#04W
) appears to be undergoing some unexpected rapid intensification as it approaches Hainan Island. Radar and microwave satellite imagery indicate a solid eyewall and inner core have formed. Prapiroon will be making landfall in the next few hours.
2
3
21
#HurricaneHilary
(
#09E
) is still a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph. It is undergoing an ERC, so the intensification should level off.
A tropical storm watch is up for
#SoCal
from the Mexico border to the LA County/Orange border. This has *never* happened before.
#BB25
0
2
18
EPAC:
#Jova
(
#11E
) has explosively intensified into a Category 4
#hurricane
with winds of 115 kts (130 mph), and honestly it is probably stronger than that, with a
@UWCIMSS
raw data-T of T7.3 thanks to a very thick ring of CMG within the CDO. Jova is not a threat to land.
0
5
18
#Norma
(
#17E
) is really reminding me of Odile - a stronger than expected
#hurricane
approaching
#Cabo
. Norma remains a Cat 3 with winds of 105 kts. It should weaken but it will still be a formidable storm as it passes over Cabo tomorrow. Very dangerous situation!
0
2
17
Remarkably,
#Beryl
(
#02L
) is doing a good job of fighting off the shear. The core still appears intact and Air Force recon dropsonde measured a gust of 158 kts (181 mph!) in the NW eyewall. It's pretty clear that the
#hurricane
has not weakened much, if at all.
1
6
16
ATL: Meanwhile, models continue to suggest TC development during the next few days from a tropical wave SW of the
#CaboVerde
Islands. The wave actually looks fairly good with some rotation apparent and it'll be interesting to see if it can survive a relatively unfavorable MDR.
0
3
17
Western Pacific: The early year lull continues as no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next 7 days.
#wpac
#typhoon
#Philippines
#Okinawa
2
2
16
@NHC_Pacific
I'm surprised this is an abbreviated report, and I'm surprised the intensity wasn't adjusted higher because there's evidence Jova was stronger than 140 kts. I understand that abbreviated reports are easier to put out but it seems to diminish the importance of certain storms.
2
1
15
WPAC: Invest
#93W
has hung out for a while southeast of
#Palau
but finally appears to be organizing. It is likely to become a TD by the end of the week as it remains just east of the
#Philippines
and recurves north and northeast.
#Okinawa
should keep tabs on it.
1
5
14
Invest
#90L
's convection has increased in coverage since yesterday, but it continues to resemble a developing nor'easter rather than a tropical system. There is a bit of an elongated surface circulation present just west of the sheared convection. 1/
1
1
15
Imagine living somewhere where the strongest storm on record is a Cat 1, then out of nowhere here's Cat 5
#Otis
poised to be the first Cat 5 landfall on record in the EPAC. Oh, and it's densely populated. That is absolutely terrifying.
2
4
15
Comparison time:
Left: Super Typhoon Yutu over Tinian, 2018
Right: Hurricane
#Beryl
over Carriacou, 2024
0
2
14
SWIO: Invest
#92S
is looking good for a SHEM system in May, with healthy convective banding and a well-defined center. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm later this week as it meanders along the near-equatorial trough.
@TropicalTidbits
@cyclonicwx
1
4
14
#Otis
(
#18E
) joins the trend of tropical cyclones undergoing RI unexpectedly in seemingly marginally favorable environments. Otis is doing that as it approaches Mexico, and it appears it will be much stronger than the forecast 80 kts when it makes landfall.
@pppapin
@EricBlake12
3
5
14
EPAC:
#Hurricane
#Jova
(
#11E
) is a monster. It has one of the thickest CMG rings I've ever seen in a tropical cyclone, and it is undoubtedly a Cat 5 by now. SSD manual Dvorak of T7.0 and
@UWCIMSS
ADT raw data-T of 7.6 supports that.
1
2
13
#StormDaniel
, a low in the Mediterranean Sea SW of Greece, appears to have subtropical characteristics (
#medicane
), with a compact wind field and convection increasing N of center. This was well fcst by the models, and it could become a bonafide TC as it moves SE toward
#Libya
.
1
3
13
WPAC: Invest
#90W
(91W is gone) is starting to show signs of consolidating as it meanders SE of Yap. This system could become a tropical depression as it moves WNW toward
#Palau
. The
#Philippines
should monitor this as it's too early to say what, if any, impact there could be.
2
3
14
TD
#AghonPH
(
#93W
) is continuing to consolidate as it approaches the island of Samar. Its circulation remains fairly broad but convection has increased near the center. It is likely to become a tropical storm tomorrow despite crossing some land areas in the
#Philippines
.
0
4
13
A large area of low pressure - invest
#90P
- is quickly getting better organized as it moves slowly southwestward toward
#Queensland
. 90P is expected to become TC
#Kirrily
by tomorrow and could reach severe TC strength before landfall near
#Townsville
late Thursday night.
1
4
12
An animated closeup of
#Beryl
's (
#02L
) eye as it approaches
#Grenada
and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, particularly the island of
#Carriacou
. Note the pinwheel-like mesovortices within the eye, a sign of extreme instability, and likely another indication of strengthening.
0
6
12
#HurricaneHilary
(
#09E
) continues to rapidly intensify southwest of Mexico, and is now a Cat 3
#hurricane
with winds of 120 mph. Continued RI is likely and
#Hilary
could become a Cat 4 later tonight.
Tropical storm watches could be required for
#SoCal
soon. Unprecedented.
1
3
12
In the Western Pacific, no tropical cyclone activity is likely during the next week.
Some tropical waves could bring a little bit of badly needed rain to the
#Philippines
later this week, while an unsettled pattern continues for
#Okinawa
and the Ryukyu Islands.
1
4
11
Invest
#90W
is up for the disturbance southeast of
#Yap
and
#Palau
. This system has a fairly decent chance to consolidate into the first tropical cyclone of the 2024 season by the end of the week. Palau and the
#Philippines
should monitor.
2
5
12
#Beryl
(
#02L
) is moving away from
#Jamaica
and will soon pass south of the Cayman Islands. It remains a Cat 4
#hurricane
with 115 kt (130 mph) winds. Wind shear is taking its toll on the system, and despite the core hanging on, the CDO is eroding and the eye is less distinct.
1
5
12
#Beryl
(
#02L
) is now the first June major
#hurricane
on record east of the Windward Islands, packing winds of 115 kts (130 mph, Cat 4). It has a very impressive satellite presentation with a clear eye w/stadium effect and strong radial outflow. Further strengthening is likely. 1/
1
2
12
The low in the E Atlantic now lies as a naked low cloud swirl, ending its development chances.
However, this little low could have a big impact as its inflow has weakened the easterly trades, which could contribute to even more warming of the already high SSTs in the MDR.
0
1
12
The tropical depression currently moving across
#Samar
in the
#Philippines
(
#AghonPH
, formerly
#93W
) has finally been designated Tropical Depression
#01W
by JTWC - it's the first numbered tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere in 2024. It continues to be a messy rain event.
0
3
12