UNRIVALED INVESTING
@UnrivaledInvest
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Prior Banker, Hedge Funder & CFO. Investor on YouTube. Looking for exceptional companies & UNRIVALED investments.
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Joined February 2012
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This is how the game is played! $NVDA posts okay results, but really strong outlook causes the stock to rip higher to the point where it needs to grow at 35%+ for years to generate reasonable returns. Then on a Friday afternoon, $NVDA files an updated shelf registration that
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I remain impressed with $TSLA execution. How many companies can post 37% revenue growth, a 3.6% decline in gross margins (y/y) and still manage their expenses to report 49% EBIT growth (16% margin vs. 14.7% last year).
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I own a stake in $CELH. Thoughts on the latest volatility and valuation.
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Okay so Munger doubled $DJCO's bet on $BABA. Yes I own $BABA and psychologically it's nice to see, but there's a fine line between "cloning" and scavenging for confirmatory evidence... (pt 1)
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Hey
@BillAckman
you were previously interested in $ADP, wouldn't $PAYC fit your criteria today? Below market multiple, very sticky, net cash, recurring profits, etc...
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@chamath
I think for measuring the return since announcement, you should at the very least use closing price for the day or day after. E.g. $IPOE filed with the SEC deal terms on 1/7 at 1PM ET and closed at $19.14 that day.
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Interesting to see Sam Altman's bet on $OKLO a nuclear energy play. Here's, a high-level video overview. Too risky for me, but hopefully it works out!
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As Buffett & Munger regularly call out there's no such thing as "Growth" vs. "Value" Investing. Everyone wants cash flows AND growth! The challenge is that not every investor is as willing to accept that the future growth will actually happen! This is why...
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@tobi
It's all based on changing expectations especially with high valuation stocks like $SHOP. When you grew 110% last yr, it reinforced the assumption that next yr might be 50-60%... but when next yr is 22%, then estimates once again overshoot, this time to model 15-20% for yrs out
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There's 3 factors that drive shareholder returns: 1. Fundamentals (i.e. Sales & Earnings Growth, ) 2. Distributions (Dividends, Spin-offs, etc.) & 3. Valuation (the change in multiple like P/E). While it's a simple framework, unfortunately this is where many investors lose out...
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Charlie Munger once said that if you're not confused by what's going on it means you don't understand it. $AAPL reports disappointing results, and the stock surges. Powell says he's uncertain how many more times he needs to raise rates, and the markets rally. What is going on?
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Bravo
@Brian_Stoffel_
I applaud your ability to publicly change your mind on something so important. A very sensible approach as well. I have no doubt this will make you an even better investor!
For 10 Years, VALUATION was not a factor in my investing.
That ends today
Here's what will be changing...⤵️
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What a wonderful conversation with
@ruima
! An expert overview of China tech, the MEGA trends and helping investors bridge the gap of Western MISPERCEPTIONS! Thank you!
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$CROX looks incredibly interesting. 7x earnings, lots of free cash flow, magic formula type stock. First time looking into it, but if their results are DURABLE could have a lot of potential....
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If you enjoy educational investment videos, here's my latest YouTube on $NVDA. It includes how one trader made over $100MN in the last 6 months on $NVDA:
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Todd Combs, who works directly with Warren Buffett, said that the filter they use to find new investments at $BRK is fairly simple. They are...
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With the 7% inflation print today, there's several uncomfortable truths investors are living with:
1. Cash remains incredibly uncomfortable to hold as its purchasing power is declining at a fast pace and likely even faster than the government metrics suggest....
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@awilkinson
As an investor in Tiny, would love to understand how you would value the business yourself and would certainly appreciate you writing an informal letter on your IR section vs. Twitter. That said, sure predictability and simplicity is nice, but it's not needed. Look at Berkshire!
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@BeckyQuick
If you want a different perspective on Fairfax / $FRFHF / $FFH Would be happy to discuss with you!
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Really enjoyed talking with
@StockJabber
and learning about $TWTR! Edwin is a MEGA BULL & thinks that the optionality here could create a potential multi-bagger! Thanks Edwin!
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Everyday seems to have a new tech development that blows me away. What a wonderful time to be alive.
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$GOOG stock selling off following their strong 4Q 2023 results! What is going on? It comes down to greed and expectations: Wall Street wanted more!
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It's a great question on $MELI. So they report ~$500mn in earnings vs. $2.9bn in operating cash flows. Which should you use? The largest delta is their provision for doubtful accounts ($1.1bn) so you need to ask yourself if you think their provisioning correctly against bad
Question to my fellow $MELI owners: Help me interpret their cash flow statements. I haven't looked a lot into credit businesses. How do you interpret this? What should we normalize and what is sustainable increase in Cash flow?
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Anyone own $FTNT? Down on 3Q'23 results, but overall seems like an incredible business. 10x+ over the past 10 years. Net cash balance sheet + strong insider ownership. Smells good! Trades at a 5% FCF yield + growth = reason returns going forward?
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What $BABA went up? I thought that wasn't allowed.
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Here's a fun stat I think a lot about these days.
@OpenSquareCap
From 1965-1979 Buffett crushed the $SPY by 10x!!! BUT..... Oil $XOP & Gold $GLD returned about the same as $BRK. CRAZY! Will have a video about this in the coming week. 1979 $BRK Annual Letter:
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Perhaps it's just me, but when it seems like there's a lot of folks saying valuation doesn't matter, maybe it's a time when valuation matters a lot...
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How can you benefit from ChatGPT's meteoric growth? Wall Street has placed their bet on $NVDA with an 80%+ gain so far in 2023. While there's truth to this idea, like all things Wall Street, I think they're taking a good idea too far. The valuation is now so rich that if $NVDA
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That is very kind of you! I hope it's helpful for the community!
@UnrivaledInvest
Daniel is probably one of the best investment content creators, the knowledge you have for so many businesses is just insane.
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As a Co-Founder of AI TICKER CHAT, my mission has been to help empower investors with powerful new tools, many of which are completely free. For example, on our site, you can easily see insider buying, transcripts and historic financials all for FREE! Now, thanks to
@OpenAI
you
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Very interesting HUGE insider purchases at $CRM, $Z and a few others... Let's dive in:
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Joel Greenblatt is one of the most successful investors around having previously compounded at 50% from 1985-1994. How did he do it? He concentrated his portfolio on mispriced stocks. How can you find mispriced stocks? ...
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1. Under 15x forward earnings, 2. 90%+ certain will earn more in 5 yrs, & 3. 50%+ certain will compound at 7%. $TSM, there largest recent purchase, clearly fits:
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$META is really interesting. Everyone thinks their business is collapsing, but that's not the case. Reels is taking share, growing engagement and users are still increasing. At this point it's really a weak economy + questionable capital allocation:
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@saxena_puru
Calling out your journey, especially in periods of material drawdowns is a sign of real character IMO. If you're ever free for a chat would love to have you on my YT channel.
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Is $BABA and China tech just TOO HARD? I'm down about ~25-30% on my BABA position...
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Looking for BARGAINS in a collapsing market? Why not look to some of the great investors? From the latest available 13F's:
🧵....
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The short-term set-up for $SNOW is very interesting. Huge insider buy, low-balled guidance, overlooked product CEO, lots of free cash flow. Hrm.
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$TSLA just reported 1Q'22 results. Despite my concerns over valuation, got to give them credit for being a MONSTER. 81% Rev GROWTH, 19% operating margins! Minimal debt, tons of FCF, lots of future optionality, expecting continued hyper growth. Wow! Not buying, but WOW!
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Hey
@TeamYouTube
got a simple fix for you that would make a 100x difference. If there's any new profile that comments the exact same message more than 2x, it's probably spam. Can you please do something about this? Happy to discuss b/c manually removing is annoying.
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Dollar General $DG down ~40% YTD. Long history of compounding. Despite a lackluster growth outlook, I suspect its reasonable valuation (15x) & recurring nature (~80% consumables) could lead it to outperform many other more expensive stocks from here. More:
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I still like & own $GOOG, but with $MSFT looking to invest $10 BILLION in
@OpenAI
the future of search is more uncertain than it was previously. More thoughts here:
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The risk of an upcoming ENERGY CRISIS is both frightening & fascinating. Thank you
@OpenSquareCap
for sharing your deep knowledge on this! $XOP, $XLE
Here's the latest interview:
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If you're interested, this week Brookfield $BN spun-off part of their asset manager (now $BAM). I discuss my thoughts on $BAM's valuation here:
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My friend
@LiviamCapital
has a great investment filter: if some of the best businesses in the world end up going for 5-8x sales ($GOOG / $AAPL), and you're looking at a company like $NVDA trading ~26x, will they have to work through that headwind or will they defy gravity? Why?
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Hey
@GaryGensler
any chance we can get upgraded
@SECGov
filing requirements so that everyday investors can get non-pixelated images in required corporate filings? Nearly impossible to read. Here's the latest example, 424B4 from $NXT on 2/10 which just went public. Thank you!
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$TSLA ripping ~5% higher on the news $GM will leverage their supercharger network. Clearly good news, but with the stock up ~100% YTD, I wonder if $TSLA has gone too far, too fast? Needs 25%+ annual growth the next 5 years to get a reasonable return from here🤔. More:
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The volatility with $SE is amazing. At one point was a 10x+ now down 80% from it's peak. Still seems like an UNRIVALED ecommerce play, so I'm happy to own a small stake. That said... (part 1/2)
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This is amazing...
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Honest Q, why $NFLX over $GOOG? Comparable valuation, except better FCF, balance sheet, buybacks and optionality with Alphabet.
@BillAckman
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The question investors are asking themselves about $GOOG is whether ~20x FCF is cheap enough to brave recession risk? I own $GOOG as I think the current valuation throws in GCP and Other bets, for free....
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It's amazing how much sentiment on $SE has changed in the last yr. 2021: "they're taking over Europe!" 2022: just another unprofitable growth stock. Will be interesting to see if their profitability can inflect in the coming yrs as mgmt anticipates:
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I like and own $GOOG, that said I can't help but suspect that patient investors will have the opportunity of LOWER prices in the future. You've got the DOJ, hiring & "consolidating" (ahem firing) and a much stronger USD. Lastly...
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I posted this on YT yesterday before $ARM stock dropped today. My broader conclusion is that there's a huge mismatch between demand & supply for AI stocks & this is translating into absurd valuations where the companies can still grow a lot but due to lofty prices the
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$PLTR down 20%+ today on their guidance of 25% growth in the 2Q 2022. While most companies would love to have 25% growth, if you're valued at 50x sales (like they were last year), your stock can get crushed. For more thoughts:
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I love being able to ask cutting-edge AI what are $NVDA's competitive advantages & get a very thought provoking response! Credit to
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$IPOE SPAC is bringing SoFi public. It's run-up quite a bit, so valuation is meh. Interesting value proposition could lead to outsized growth, but want to see some organic growth in 2021. Here's my full take:
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Glad to see $RBLX and $AFRM postpone the RIGGED IPO process for a DIRECT LISTING in the 1Q'21. Here's my video on the RIGGED IPO process where bankers stole BILLIONS during the $ABNB, $DASH, and $AI IPOs:
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Could this be the bottom for China stocks? A 2 TRILLION RMB Stimulus? $BABA $KWEB
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dLocal $DLO has among the best financial metrics I've ever seen with a public company. 142% YTD growth, 30%+ operating margins, huge name brand customers. Their value proposition seems clear enough: enabling global merchants to sell into EM that has hyper local payment, tax &...
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I previously posted about $NVDA's rich valuation and the sizable downside IF they didn't perform. That said, their guidance here is really incredible and reflects surging demand. For example, in the last quarter their y/y sales were down 13% with 65% gross margins. Next quarter
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Just posted about $DIS stock after it's 40% sell-off this past year. Overall, despite the noise in the stock price, they still own UNRIVALED assets. I don't see why in 10 years from now they won't have more fans, greater content, and higher prices.
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I own a small stake in $GOOG, but I fully recognize they face HUGE challenges, both internally and externally, in the immediate future...
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@presidential01
This is very helpful for making the argument! Thank you for so much for sharing. Can you do a comparison for maybe a top five or ten of their products? What you're showing suggests that it goes beyond just a marketing company and is creating true dollar value for the consumer,
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A thought experiment diving into
@elonmusk
bold call of $TSLA to a $5 trillion market cap in 5 years...
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@realMeetKevin
This is not how you calculate it. FCF was $621mn (check the report) which is based on Cash Flow from Ops ($2,351 not net income) less CAPEX ($1,730). Excluding Bitcoin would still have seen increased cash balance (excluding FX impact).
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William Green
@williamgreen72
is a beacon of light and wisdom. Thank you for sharing your time in this fantastic interview that dives into several of the core concepts from your wonderful book: Richer, Wiser, Happier.
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Who's interested in the hyper-growth company? $LVGO!
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I just listened to
@williamgreen72
interview w/
@RayDalio
. Amazing! William you are such a world class interviewer bringing incredible richness and nuance to the discussion. For example, hearing Ray's commentary around meditation was particularly helpful for me. Thank you!
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Interesting to see Steve Mandel's Lone Pine, a high-quality / growth investor, increase their stake in $STNE. Stock is down 55%, and has rapidly taken share as one of Brazil's top merchant acquirers. Lots of additional optionality as well. My quick take:
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Really enjoyed this interview with
@OpenSquareCap
! One of the most thoughtful takes on OIL I've heard. I don't think a lot of investors are expecting $100+ oil within the next year. Thanks Nelson!
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My thoughts on $BABA are pretty simple: Growing at 15-20%+ over the next few years, plus buybacks & no valuation expansion = satisfactory return. I'm going to sit and watch them execute. More thoughts on their recent results here:
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Wow $GOOG continues to amaze me.
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Interesting to see
@michaeljburry
bet AGAINST $AAPL. I suspect he see's an asymmetric trade where 1. real disposable income 🔻2. margins are 🔻and 3. there's a chance valuation also goes ⏬:
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Personally thinking some basics:
1. Spend less than you earn
2. Assets / Liabilities / Equity (you want a slice of the equity pie)
3. What is ROI? Why you should invest in yourself.
4. Capitalism is the greatest system for building wealth overtime but it's not perfect.
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$AMZN sued by the FTC. I personally don't think this suit has merit as their two key points center around Amazon encouraging merchants to have the lowest available prices on their platform & adopting their best in class fulfillment network. Consumers win!
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Priceless.
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I previously made a video on the stupidity of the ongoing debt ceiling fracas but think Rick and Morty do an even better job here on the equivalent but amusing angle:
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The "featured presentation" on the $U investor relations website is a PDF of their 10K. I'll chalk this up to things you can get away with at 50x sales.
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Instead I'm focusing on my thesis which didn't change: Still seems cheap, but could definitely be wrong as it's CHINA...
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@michaeljburry
If you're right and the U.S. is indeed facing a multi-year recession, why aren't you short? Lack of asymmetric bets?
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I was told that I should title this video, "my take on Jackson's hole." 🤣$SPY see you at the lows?
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On reviewing both $PSTH (looking to acquire a stake in $UMG) and $SPOT, I've changed my mind and now in the camp that I like
@BillAckman
's deal for a 35bn EUR valuation on UMG over $SPOT.
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Ray Dalio's work actually inspired me to discuss macro more. Maybe that's a mistake however, but I believe we're living in such an extreme period where government intervention plays a huge roll in financial outcomes....
@UnrivaledInvest
I do enjoy your channel a great deal for your insight and your level head when you value them, but I don't understand your focus on the macro all that much.
I don't disagree that it is important, but it's so complex that I struggle to use the info
I just invest on micro.
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Beautiful chart of winner take most.
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If there's a case for an "AI Winner, but Stock Loser" I'd suspect $PLTR would be a strong candidate. Would not surprise me to see strong fundamental growth for years ahead with a rangebound stock with limited returns.
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This is hilarious 😂
Taking a girl out to dinner on the first dates was only possible under the zero interest rate policy. Too many dollars chasing too many bad dinners. Now that the funny money's gone, be prepared for 3-5 years of coffee dates
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$NEE is a dividend & growth play that recently plummeted. With a 3-4% yield & management expecting $4 in EPS in a few years, it trades at an undemanding, low teens forward valuation. Is this regulated MONOPOLY cheap enough? I'm not sure.
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@LiviamCapital
I made a video that largely agrees. Devil's advocate perspective: A lot of their growth is now coming from much lower margin omni channel bets.
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I've always been impressed by
@innoutburger
so after reading Lynsi Snyder's wonderful book celebrating their 75th anniversary, I thought I'd make a short video discussing their success, challenges and lessons for everyone.
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I know hyper growth is the only type of stocks folks want to buy these days, but let's do a hypothetical: stable company, 5-8% annualized growth for probably the next decade returning $2-3bn to shareholders per year. Net cash balance sheet. What's that worth today?
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This is 100% the challenge that a lot of growth investors will face if the Fed doesn't change course. At times, valuation matters a lot.
NTM EV/revenue multiples are still *very* rich!
$CRWD --> 23
$CFLT --> 34
$DDOG --> 37
$MNDY --> 29
$NET --> 44
$SHOP --> 26
$S --> 36
$SNOW --> 52
$U --> 27
$ZI --> 27
With QE ending, liquidity tightening....more pain ahead?
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Trulieve $TCNNF has great financial optics, but digging in deeper and there are just too many red flags for my JOURNEY!
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