Travis Sawchik
@Travis_Sawchik
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MLB writer for @theScore . Books: The MVP Machine, Big Data Baseball. Ballpark snob. Wanna reach out?: travis.sawchik @thescore .com
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Joined January 2010
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The MLB velocity range is shrinking. Dove into velocity range, looking all pitchers' minimum, max, and median fastball velos since 2007. Pitchers are indeed max-efforting more and more (and that probably has something - or a lot - to do with injury).
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The A's are 2.5 games out of first place with the game's best closer and an owner trying to run them out of town. We've seen this movie before.
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Manfred: ‘Last five years have been very difficult for the league from a revenue perspective.’ MLB has totaled about $43 billion in that period.
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Spencer Strider with a masterclass on accepting defeat, responsibility (it's been lacking from certain players, execs this postseason):
"The people trying to use the playoff format to make an excuse for the results they don't like are not confronting the real issue. You're in
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The Dodgers won 142 games in the regular season, but the five-day break before facing the Reds in the NLDS was just too much rust to shake.
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The Mets spent more in free agency in one night ($315m) than the Pirates have spent since 2010 ($207m)
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Albert Pujols is 21 home runs away from 700. There are 15 new DH spots. He's been a below-average hitter for five straight seasons and is 42. Who is biting here?
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Apple should just buy all 30 MLB franchises. Apple has $200 billion in cash. Ultimate bundle.
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Laz Diaz’s reaction to Joey Gallo hitting a foul ball out of LoanDepot Park 😂
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Acquiring Bryan Reynolds for McCutchen is one of the trade rental returns of this century
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One agent: "I haven't heard about any players voting 'No.'"
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There is no Tommy John surge this spring -- it's just always this bad since ~2014. Today marks the 100th day of the year, a period during when most elbow injuries occur. We looked at the first 100 days of each year re: TJS procedures for MLB and all pro pitchers since Tommy John
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End MLB interleague play and realign geographically
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Me from the future: Cole and Glasnow are pitching in the playoffs today
Pirates in 2014: Yes!!!
Me from the future: But they're not on the same team ...
Pirates 2014: Well, that's OK, we probably traded one for a star
Me from the future: It's an ALDS game ...
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A story and a thread on a major failing of the modern stadium construction boom: It's pushed MLB fans further away from the game. We see less, and hear less. It's changed fan behavior. Explored through the lens of moving from old Comiskey Park to new🧵:
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Jerry Maguire II: Tom Cruise attempts to get a 32-year-old, one-WAR outfielder signed before spring training ends
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This included the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but every other year within the last five MLB was at $9.5 billion or more in revenues. Team values are increasing. Only the Braves' books are public and they netted $103, in cash flow in 2021
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MLB’s ‘defensive’ lockout has resulted in one official offer to players in 70 days
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When you're traded to the Astros, this is what your first meeting with the club is like (via a nonfiction book titled The MVP Machine):
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The following are the only five MLB teams’ broadcasts that will be available on Amazon Prime: Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Rays, and Brewers.
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Fact-checking comments from Jim Crane ... The Astros were an outlier in improving from 2016 to 2017 (many of the same players), particularly at home. From November:
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Some personal news: I am a free agent. I am among those being laid off as ABC News reduces staff. I look forward to whatever is next in journalism, or baseball, or elsewhere. My direct messages and email are open.
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Since 2002:
S&P 500 return: +308%
MLB team values: +564% (per Statista)
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I think rust is real to some degree, but this is a better message. Leadership.
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Orioles' Mike Elias on Ohtani maybe being at the Blue Jays' facility the other day: "Have you seen Dunedin facility? I'd be showing that off, too."
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Free agency requirements haven't changed since 1976. Arbitration eligibility hasn't changed much since '91. Player career length has changed *a lot.* Service time declined 23% from 2003 to '19. Manfred wrote that MLB players have the best deal. They don't.
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‘Joe Torre is right there. Ask him. He’s got his head down trying not to look up’
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Free agency scoreboard:
Dodgers $1.053 billion
Rest of MLB $873 million
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This rule change to allow the opposing bench to become an army of free safeties is wild
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The shorter "arm circle" or "elbow spiral" is gaining in popularity (Jameson Taillon and Aaron Civale are among the new adopters) and when you look at the success guys like Giolito, Bauer, Bieber & Plesac have had with the shorter arm action it makes a lot of sense. Mini-thread:
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We need smarter pitch counts/workload management tools. Pulling guys because they approach a round number while they are cruising stress-free is just cya stuff. 100 over seven is much different than 100 over four or five innings.
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A source with experience in MLB labor talks: "They need to tie [MLB] revenue growth to CBT growth. Are we really going to do this every five years?" Arguably the biggest stumbling block, but there are many.
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If Mt. Davis was never built would the perception of Oakland's stadium situation be different?
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The Cubs could just make a two screenshot presentation to Ohtani and it would compelling
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Perhaps it's no surprise that Strider is one of the more self-made players in MLB. Accountability leads to improvement, performance:
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Time of games today:
NYY-PHI 2h34m
PHI-DET 2h15m
BOS-ATL 2h39m
TB-MIN 2h31m
BAL-MIN 2h54m
TOP-PIT 2h47m
WSH-STL 2h26m
NYM-HOU 2h33m
👀
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Source: players' understanding is a 162-game season is still possible. Today's agreement on draft/QO key to that.
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The Reds are now the fastest team in MLB by median sprint speed. They’ve made significant gains in defensive efficiency since the the middle of May. They’ve doubled the value of their farm system since ‘20. The smoke machine is firing in the clubhouse. 🚀
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Who doesn’t love chaos? Turn the wild-card, play-ins into MLB Regionals.
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As the Royals are sold for $1 billion, just remember your favorite team can not afford your favorite player who is nearing free agency
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Imagine the Blue Jays facing pitchers with clean hands for rest of season
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MLB now using an explosive ball. Poor Brandon Morrow had no idea
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The Dodgers are deferring $857 million in player salary to 2033-2044, when it won't count against the luxury tax (assuming it exists). Their owners will have had 10+ years to compound their wealth, and grow ballclub revenues against artificially lower star salaries in the
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Pfizer CEO: 50 million doses available this year, 1.3 billion doses in 2021 (two doses required per person) via
@CNBC
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Source: this never happened
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Some Bobby Abreu facts:
*Players to have scored 1,400 or more runs, stolen at least 400 bases, hit 288+ HR and reached base at .395 clip or better: Abreu, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson.
*From 1998 to 2010, no MLB right fielder produced more WAR than Abreu. Only Larry Walker
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Paul Skenes, Kyle Manzardo, and Junior Caminero (among others) are all in the minor leagues when they shouldn't be. There's still far from enough incentive for teams to actually field their best 26. It's also difficult for prospects to improve against MLB competition without
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There are no 1 pm est MLB games today or tomorrow. In the stay-at-home world, surprising to me that the sport is not taking advantage of this time ... while there is a still a season
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Some professional news: I will be joining
@Fangraphs
next month as a staff writer. Really, really excited to be joining the FG team
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To give you an idea of how far ahead the Astros are in the player-development-information game, they had 75 Edgertronic cameras installed throughout their system last season when many clubs were experimenting with their first high-speed camera spring
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Spencer Strider essentially reverse engineered the Jacob deGrom fastball. The pitch is essentially a laser beam. It's all you really need as arm to dominate, but building it is quite another thing:
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Over the last few years, we've heard a lot of media members -- and even folks in baseball -- mock "launch angle" and "spin rate." Well, Ted Williams had a launch angle. Bob Feller had a spin rate. We can just measure those traits now. Baseball is physics. Let's all join 2019.
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The Rays might have done it again José Caballero. When the Rays call you about a trade, politely find a way to get off the phone.
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MLB pitchers to have Tommy John surgery in the first 100 days of the year since 2010, according to the
@MLBPlayerAnalys
database:
2010 -4
2011 - 2
2012 - 6
2013 - 4
2014 - 11
2015 - 9
2016 - 4
2017 - 5
2018 - 5
2019 - 5
2020 - 6
2021 - 11
2022 - 3
2023 - 2
2024 - 9
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Neil Walker at $4 million guaranteed is a shocking contract and steal for the Yankees. At least 236 MLB players will be paid more in 2018. He's had seven straight 2+WAR seasons
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Chris Archer for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz. Like for Rays. Retweet for Pirates.
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Maybe MLB shouldn’t have waited 42 days to start talking
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Indians (+190) have overtaken Dodgers (+187) in MLB run differential ....and Cleveland has 14 straight wins (ties franchise record)
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Some personal news: I'm thrilled to announce I am joining
@theScore
as a senior MLB writer. I'm excited about the fit and feel fortunate to have the opportunity. Storytelling/analysis/opinion for an already popular and growing media company. I can't wait to get started.
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The Astros have broken baseball
Yordan Alvarez's swing is GORGEOUS. First homer already in the books. 10/10 would recommend.
#Astros
🔥💪📈
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Hearing a lot of folks fatigued from MLB labor strife between billionaires and millionaires. One problem with that: the majority of active players are not millionaires
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Gerrit Cole on the Cubs: "I don't really think they're the best team in baseball."
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Manfred on if owning a team is lucrative:
"Historically, (the return) is below what you'd expect to get in the stock market."
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Bob Nutting is a big obstacle to overcome. The Pirates’ FO and staff did it from 2013-15 in part by plucking low-hanging, data-based fruit like pitch framing value and mass defensive shifting. But the club whiffed on maximizing the next wave of data and best, new practices
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I understand why it's hard for many in the public to sympathize with millionaire players, especially with all the pandemic-related job loss. But the thing is most players aren't millionaires and don't retire as such. They make it to the top of their field but time there is short.
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How/why did 100 become the magic pitch count number? Why not 87 or 118? Why not consider an innings denominator?
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The pace-of-play problem baseball didn't know it had: There are now more foul balls than batted balls put in play. Foul balls are up by 12% and foul territory is down by 20.5%
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Owners proposed reduced MLB pension funding (no cost of living increases), I'm told. That's one way to end a meeting quickly.
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Yes
Are people who prefer their steaks well done wrong?
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The Atlanta Braves took in a club-record $438 million in baseball revenue in 2019, an 8% increase yoy. ($340 million in operating expenses). They're owned by a publicly-traded company so we get a glimpse into how an MLB club is actually performing.
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Elly De La Cruz's first 157 games in the majors:
22 homers, 104 runs, 68 RBIs, 67 SBs,
.234/.311./.411 slash line (227 strikeouts)
Age: 22
Barry Bonds' first 157 games:
22 homers, 107 runs, 69 RBIs, 46 SBs
.237/.338./440 slash line
Age: 22
Not sayin', just sayin'
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According to ESPN park factors, Camden Yards has gone from the easiest park to homer at in 2021 to the most difficult in '22. The deader ball and deeper LF/wall is converting a number of extra base hits to outs. Santander just had a grand slam turned into a F7
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Clubs that have won 54%+ of games over the previous 10 seasons:
Dodgers
Yankees
Cardinals
Guardians
Astros
That's it. That's the list.
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Russell Martin:"The fair thing would be for our team to hold down Maldonado so Travis (Snider) can go back and sucker punch him in the face"
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@TDFriarFan
It actually makes some sense if they want to sell some tickets and Coors Light in the right-field deck
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Update thru play Saturday: 67.2% of MLB pitchers have had a spin reduction (adjusted for velocity) since June 3, and 36% a reduction by more than half a rpm/mph unit. The threat of sticky stuff policing alone seems to be creating deterrence
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'The Robot',
@PhilDussault27
🤖, is on the cusp of completing arguably the greatest fantasy baseball campaign of all time. He created 'the system.' It works:
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The "F--- Yeah" button: How Guardians catcher Austin Hedges hacked PitchCom to pump up his pitchers and pick up their pace
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I’m thrilled to join the FiveThirtyEight team
Super excited to announce that
@Travis_Sawchik
will soon be joining FiveThirtyEight as our national baseball correspondent! Travis has done a tremendous job of blending statistical analysis with traditional reporting at Fangraphs and will vastly improve our ⚾ coverage.
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Skenes’ debut was supposed to be holiday-like celebration but it turned out to be a dysfunctional family getting together
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Still wild the Padres were in the midst of a 20-year, $1.2 billion local TV deal that is no more. It's possible, I'm told, all of the MLB clubs tied to Diamond/Bally have their rights revert back like with the NBA clubs at season's end. This uncertainty figures to be influencing
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New Marlins ownership bought a house they couldn't afford. Most rooms now have no furniture. Just a bean-bag chair and futon in living room.
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Eric Hosmer has accumulated -0.1 fWAR and $40m as a Padre. Only six years left on the contract.
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Reminder: A small % of players are paid at the minimum salary level in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. But the *majority* of MLB players are compensated at the minimum level in baseball. The MLB min salary is also *less* than the aforementioned levels of other major leagues.
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To the ‘I want more baseball’ crowd. It’s the same amount of baseball - played in less time. This is how it was played from 1871-1980 when it was, for a time, the most popular spectator sport.
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