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Pinned Tweet
Flip Rate data is live!
Each year, I look at how candidates are doing based on changed minds (flips)
You can find what percentage of flips each candidate would need to reach 75% here:
One particular candidate of interest this year will be Billy Wagner:
6
9
38
Ballot
#1
is from Sadiel Lebron. He adds Wagner, Vizquel, Kent, and Buehrle while dropping Ramírez and selecting first-time candidate Francisco Rodríguez. Coming to the Tracker in about an hour
91
90
709
Ballot
#43
is from Jeff Sanders, our fourth first-time voter. Ten candidates earn a checkmark on Jeff’s first ballot. Seven players (Beltrán, Helton, Jones, Mauer, A-Rod, Sheffield, Wagner) are at 75% among first-time voters, with Beltré at 100%
Coming soon to the Tracker
24
20
287
An announcement Day tradition! My virtual 2024 Hall of Fame ballot:
As always I appreciate the transparency of the actual voters for sharing their ballots. Without them this project wouldn’t be possible, so please be respectful towards them…
But feel free to roast me!
74
9
265
Ballot
#98
is from Noah Trister. Five holdovers are joined by three first-timers, Gary Sheffield (+7) and Billy Wagner (+3)
Coming soon to the Tracker
25
18
260
Ballot
#110
is from Peter Schmuck. Beltré and Mauer join a group of five holdovers plus Abreu (net -1) and Beltrán (+10)
Schmuck’s column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
22
26
248
Ballot
#100
is from Travis Sawchik. Beltré, Mauer and Utley join seven of Sawchik’s eight holdovers while Beltrán was dropped due to space (net +9)
Sawchik’s column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
27
22
240
Ballot
#14
is from José de Jesus Ortiz. Five holdovers earn his vote, along with three first-time eligible candidates and two holdover candidates who make gains here. Jimmy Rollins (+1) picks up his first overall vote of the cycle while Gary Sheffield (+2) gains as well
Ortiz’s
25
23
229
Ballot
#92
is from John Canzano. He selects ten candidates, including new additions Beltrán (+8) and Helton (+0)
Canzano’s explainer:
Coming soon to the Tracker
16
18
225
Ballot
#44
is from Evan Grant. Seven holdovers earn a selection along with two first-timers and Francisco Rodriguez, who has his first recorded add in his short time on the ballot (net +/-0)
Coming soon to the Tracker
45
19
216
Ballot
#27
is from Art Davidson. Several new additions to Art’s ballot this year. Three first-timers earn a vote including David Wright, who has his third vote of the cycle. Todd Helton gains and moves to net +/-0, while Billy Wagner climbs to +2
Coming soon to the Tracker
41
18
214
Ballot
#57
is from Mark Newman. It is our privilege to host Mark’s ballot column at the Tracker for the third straight year!
He selects eight holdovers, three first-year eligibles, and drops Manny due to ballot crowding (net +/-0)
Mark’s column at BBHOFTracker dot com:
32
17
204
Ballot
#118
is from Jack Curry, revealed moments ago on Yankees Hot Stove on the YES Network. Five holdovers receive a vote along with two newcomers. Beltré, Helton, Mauer, and Wagner currently track above 80% while Gary Sheffield is at 74.6%
Coming soon to the Tracker
19
21
204
Ballot
#172
is from Derrick Goold. Earning a selection are first-timer Beltrán, along with six holdovers, and Billy Wagner (+27)
Via STL Today podcast:
Coming soon to the Tracker
11
20
205
Ballot
#73
is from Christopher Smith. Eight holdovers plus Beltré and Mauer earns selection here. Billy Wagner moves to 74% overall
Smith’s column:
In the Tracker:
21
26
201
Ballot
#45
is from Joe Cowley. Carlos Beltrán picks up a vote (+4, tied with Sheffield atop the leaderboard) while Omar Vizquel drops one (net +/-0)
Coming soon to the Tracker
23
17
201
Ballot
#15
is from Art Davidson. First-timer Francisco Rodríguez was the only candidate receiving support on this ballot. Second-year candidate Álex Rodríguez (net -1) did not receive a vote this time around after earning one in 2022
In the Tracker:
147
26
193
Ballot
#30
is from Joe Haakenson. After getting squeezed off for space last year, Billy Wagner receives an added vote and moves to +3 so far. He has added 3/11 potential votes so far and will need an estimated 27 flips for election
In the Tracker:
49
26
194
Ballot
#128
is from a voter who chooses to remain anonymous. As with all anonymous ballots, we are unable to report on any adds or drops, if any. José Bautista earns his second vote for the Hall of Fame
In the Tracker:
33
18
195
Ballot
#34
is from Chris Assenheimer.
Four holdovers, three first-timers, and three new additions make the cut here. Ramírez (+2), Sheffield (+4), and Vizquel (+1) all pad their totals. Manny moves ahead of A-Rod in overall percentage
In the Tracker:
34
27
188
Ballot
#9
is from Sadiel Lebron. Ten players earn a selection including Hunter (+1) and K-Rod, who each earn their first vote of the cycle. Mark Buehrle suffers his first drop (-1)
Coming soon to the Tracker
26
34
186
Ballot
#102
is from Rob Maaddi. Three first-time candidates receive a vote along with seven holdovers, while Beltrán (+9) gets squeezed off for space. Maaddi also would have included Pettitte with more spots available. Four candidates are currently above 79%
Coming soon to the
20
14
181
Ballot
#50
is from Larry Stone, our second consecutive ballot from the Seattle BBWAA chapter. No adds or drops from returning candidates. Three first-timers receive a vote, including Joe Mauer, who is up to 80% in the Tracker. Gary Sheffield sits at 74% and Billy Wagner at 72%
12
22
179
Ballot
#96
is from David Laurila. Three first-year candidates earn a selection, bumping Andruw Jones off. Jones falls to -2. Laurila’s ballot explainer will run on FanGraphs tomorrow morning
In the Tracker:
31
22
180
Ballot
#163
is from Jon Morosi. Joining six holdovers are Beltrán, Helton (+27), Hunter (+2), and Wagner (+26)
Via MLBN and MLB dot com:
In the Tracker:
10
19
180
Ballot
#184
is from Joe Smith. Ten names are checked here, including Carlos Beltrán, who moves to +17
In the Tracker:
12
20
173
Ballot
#214
is from Glen Crevier. Beltrán has his 29th add and is net +22 overall. Billy Wagner adds another critical +1 and sits at 78.5% and net +8
In the Tracker:
17
15
177
Ballot
#58
is from Don Shelton. Returning to the voting pool once again after a one year absence, Shelton selects the maximum of ten candidates
In the Tracker:
20
15
173
Ballot
#112
is from Erik Boland. Eight holdovers and two first-timers selected
Via Newsday:
Coming soon to the Tracker
14
23
174
Ballot
#103
is from Rob Maaddi. Five holdovers remain on the ballot along with Beltrán and four additions this year - Helton (+16), Jones (+17), Kent (+16), and Ramírez (+1)
In the Tracker:
21
15
176
Ballot
#88
is from Randy Miller. Four first-year candidates join his group of three holdovers. Miller becomes the third voter to publicly vote for Billy Wagner nine times. David Wright earns his sixth overall vote. Andruw Jones suffers a drop (net -1)
Miller’s column:
51
19
173
Ballot
#68
is from Zach Braziller. Zach is our fifth first-time voter, and he selects nine candidates. Seven players remain above 75% among first-time voters: Beltrán, Beltré, Helton, Jones, Mauer, A-Rod, and Wagner. Congrats on your first ballot, Zach!
In the Tracker:
17
17
171
Ballot
#81
is from Dave Campbell. No adds or drops for returning candidates. Beltré, Mauer, Helton, and Wagner currently sit above the election threshold of 75%
In the Tracker:
14
21
174
Ballot
#67
is from a voter who wishes to remain anonymous. As always, we are unable to comment on adds or drops, if any. Five candidates currently tracking at 73% or higher
In the Tracker:
23
23
168
Ballot
#122
is from Peter Schmuck, voting for the first time since the 2007 cycle. Schmuck recently retired from the Baltimore Sun, which prohibits BBWAA members from participating in Hall of Fame or awards voting
Column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
23
23
171
Ballot
#19
is from Barry Bloom. After casting a 4-player ballot in 2023, Bloom selects ten candidates this time around, including three first-year candidates. Gaining ground are Ramírez (+1), Rollins (+2), Sheffield (+3), and Wagner (+1)
Sportico column:
34
19
168
Ballot
#147
is from Dan Connolly. Six holdovers, three newcomers and Torii Hunter (+2) earn a vote. Andruw Jones joins Beltré, Helton, Mauer, Wagner and Sheffield above 70%
Connolly’s column:
In the Tracker:
10
16
166
Ballot
#41
is from Luis Rangel. First-year candidate Beltrán receives a vote along with seven holdovers, Jones (+5), and Kent (+9)
In the Tracker:
20
12
165
Ballot
#42
is from Marc Narducci, continuing his annual tradition on revealing his ballot at MLB Trade Rumors. Holdovers Helton and Wagner each earn a vote along with a quartet of first-year candidates
Via MLBTR:
Coming soon to the Tracker
18
19
158
Ballot
#72
is from Travis Sawchik, our third first-time voter. Remaining a perfect 3/3 among first-timers are Beltrán, Helton, Jones, Rolen, Sheffield, and Wagner
Coming soon to the Tracker later this morning
9
19
164
Ballot
#47
is from John Perrotto. No adds or drops for returning candidates. Two newcomers join Perrotto’s eight returned from 2023
Column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
14
21
161
Ballot
#79
is from Nick Groke. Our seventh first-time voter selects eight candidates including three who are new to the ballot. Among first-time voters: Beltrán, Beltré, Helton, Mauer, and Wagner are above the 75% threshold
Coming soon to the Tracker
18
20
160
Ballot
#111
is from Scott Ostler. K-Rod is the lone first-timer selected. Rollins drops to net (+2) while five players gain ground - Helton (+17), Jones (+18), Pettitte (+8), Rolen (+5), and Wagner (+16)
Via SF Chronicle:
Tracker:
13
25
158
Ballot
#46
is from Dave Campbell. Seven holdovers receive a vote along with newcomer Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones (+6)
In the Tracker:
10
14
158
Ballot
#101
is from Brian Lewis. Several changes here as Ramírez (+0) and Rodríguez (-1) lose a vote while Beltrán (+10), Jones (-1) and Wagner (+4) all gain. Todd Helton has pulled even with Joe Mauer at 82.2%
In the Tracker:
23
16
156
Ballot
#84
is from Eno Sarris. Beltrán, Helton, Jones, Rolen, Sheffield, and Wagner all a perfect 4/4 among first time voters
In the Tracker:
9
17
156
Ballot
#133
is from Dan Brown. Five holdovers are joined by Beltrán, Abreu (+9), Helton (+23), Kent (+22), and Wagner (+20)
Via The Athletic:
Tracker:
9
20
156
Ballot
#169
is from Mike Harrington. Rollins gains a vote and improves to +4. David Wright has his 12th vote overall while Francisco Rodríguez has his 13th
Via Buffalo News:
Coming soon to the Tracker
15
17
155
🚨🚨🚨BREAKING NEWS in
#BBHOF
Tracker land: lt has just been discovered that Curt Schilling has deleted his Twitter account
12
24
137
Ballot
#185
is from Steve Kroner. His seven selections include Beltrán (+18) and Sheffield (+14), while Andruw Jones is omitted and drops to +1. Billy Wagner is back up to 80%
In the Tracker:
40
22
152
Flip Rate projections at 160 ballots:
Rolen: 75.2%
———————
Helton: 74.9589% 🤯🤯🤯
Wagner: 70.6%
Jones: 62.1%
Sheffield: 59.6%
Kent: 50.0%
A-Rod: 36.3%
Ramírez: 31.2%
Historical Flip Rate:
Tracker:
12
15
148
Ballot
#148
is from Kirk Wessler. Vizquel loses a vote (+/-0) while Beltrán (+13) and Wagner (+6) gain. After a bit of cold spell, Wagner increases his flip rate back to 25.8%
In the Tracker:
15
14
142
Ballot
#124
is from Felix DeJesús. Adrián Beltré joins a group of nine holdovers. No adds or drops for returning candidates. Billy Wagner becomes the fourth candidate to reach 100 votes
In the Tracker:
18
18
141
Ballot
#216
is from Tom Verducci, revealed moments ago on MLB Tonight. Joining holdovers Helton and Wagner are newcomers Beltré and Mauer, and Beltrán (+23)
In the Tracker:
12
15
138
Ballot
#94
is from Bob Klapisch. Beltrán continues on his strong run and moves to +9. Pettitte suffers a lost vote (-3)
Coming soon to the Tracker
10
13
139
Ballot
#3
is from David Skretta. Two 2023 holdovers earn his vote along with first-time eligibles Adrián Beltré and Chase Utley
In the Tracker:
40
16
137
Ballot
#156
is from Michael Knisley. Victor Martinez becomes the 22nd different candidate to earn a Hall of Fame vote. Remaining candidates with zero known votes: Adrián González, Brandon Phillips, José Reyes, and James Shields
In the Tracker:
29
20
138
Ballot
#182
is from Blair Kerkhoff, our 13th first-time voter. Those casting ballots for the first time collectively have 5 candidates above 75% - namely Beltré 13/13, Wagner 12/13, Helton 12/13, Mauer 10/13, and Sheffield 10/13. Andruw Jones falls just short at 9/13 (69.2%)
In
11
12
136
Ballot
#66
is from Shaun Powell. Helton loses a vote and falls to net -1. Picking up steam here are Beltrán (+6), A-Rod (+/-0), and Wagner (+2)
In the Tracker:
37
16
133
Ballot
#179
is from Scott Lauber. No adds or drops for returning candidates. Lauber, who became a Hall of Fame voter in 2016, has the rare distinction of voting for Billy Wagner (who first appeared on the 2016 ballot) on all nine of his ballots. Wagner sits at 79.3%
Via The
8
13
134
Ballot
#60
is from Evan Grant. A pair of starting pitchers - Mark Buehrle (+4) and Andy Pettitte (+4) - join five holdovers and Carlos Beltrán. Scott Rolen climbs back up to 80% overall
In the Tracker:
7
16
134
Ballot
#100
(!) is from Scott Lauber. Three holdovers are joined by Carlos Beltrán and Todd Helton (+15)
Coming soon to the Tracker
9
11
134
Ballot
#124
is from a voter who chooses to remain anonymous. We are not able to report on any adds or drops at this time. Sometimes anonymous ballots become public later on, but sometimes not. Jeff Kent reaches 50% overall
In the Tracker:
9
17
134
Ballot
#161
is from former BBWAA Career Excellence Award winner Peter Gammons. The top seven leading vote-getters each receive a vote. No adds or drops for returning candidates
Coming soon to the Tracker
6
16
134
Ballot
#52
is from Scot Gregor. Five holdovers earn a spot along with Carlos Beltrán, and Billy Wagner, who becomes the first candidate to reach net (+11) this cycle
In the Tracker:
9
7
132
Ballot
#80
is from Marc Carig. No adds or drops for returning candidates. First-year candidate Beltrán joins a group of five holdovers
In the Tracker:
9
13
129
Ballot
#60
is from Gordon Edes. Seven of our current top eight vote-getters receive a vote here. No adds or drops for returning candidates
In the Tracker:
11
13
127
Ballot
#167
is from Mark Bradley. With nine holdovers and three newcomers hitting the ballot, Abreu drops to net -4 and Helton to net -1
In the Tracker:
36
17
129
Ballot
#206
is from Bob Sherwin. Picking up a much-needed +1 is Billy Wagner (+7) while Beltrán also gains here (+20)
In the Tracker:
10
14
126
Ballot
#114
is from Steve Popper. Five holdovers and two first-year candidates selected
Via Newsday:
Coming soon to the Tracker
7
11
126
Ballot
#171
is from Jeff Wilson. Six holdovers earn a vote, along with first-timer K-Rod as well as Todd Helton, who is the first candidate to reach +30
Wilson’s column:
In the Tracker:
9
16
127
And finally, Ballot
#135
is from Tara Sullivan. The top six leading vote-getters all receive support. Manny Ramírez falls to net -1
Via The Boston Globe:
In the Tracker:
12
13
125
Ballot
#213
is from Derrick Goold. Six holdovers and three newcomers earn a vote. No adds or drops for returning candidates
Goold’s column:
In the Tracker:
6
15
123
Ballot
#40
is from Anthony Andro. Four holdovers and two first-year eligibles receive a vote. No adds or drops for returning candidates
Coming soon to the Tracker
23
12
126
Ballot
#117
is from Brendan Prunty. Seven holdovers receive a checkmark along with Carlos Beltrán (56.4%), Andruw Jones (+20), and Billy Wagner (+17)
In the Tracker:
7
16
123
Ballot
#195
is from Marc Lancaster. Joining his four holdovers are newcomers Beltré and Mauer, along with second-year candidate Beltrán (+19)
In the Tracker:
4
11
122
Ballot
#158
is from Jeff Wilson. Six holdovers and two newcomers earn a vote. Four candidates are currently above 75% with Gary Sheffield sitting at 74.7%
Wilson’s column:
In the Tracker:
7
15
119
Ballot
#10
is from Paul White. Beltré and Mauer join holdovers Helton, Sheffield, and Wagner. No adds or drops for returning candidates
In the Tracker:
22
18
120
Ballot
#95
is from Enrique Rojas. First-year candidate Carlos Beltrán joins four holdovers and Todd Helton (+14) who climbs back up to 80%
Via ESPN Deportes:
In the Tracker:
7
17
120
Ballot
#121
is from Rich Dubroff. The top four leading vote-getters among ballot returnees are joined by the three most popular newcomers. No adds or drops for returning candidates
Dubroff’s column:
In the Tracker:
7
14
119
Ballot
#68
is from Jeff Fletcher, brought to you in Twitter puzzle form!Receiving votes are Beltrán, four holdovers, Kent (+13), Rolen (+4) and Wagner (+13)
In the Tracker:
14
18
120
Ballot
#35
is from Bill Plunkett. Wagner (+6) is now tied for the most net gains of any candidate. In the Tracker:
67
22
116
At 100 ballots in the Tracker, highest flip rates (no to yes flips):
Beltrán - 34.2%
Sheffield - 25.9%
Wagner - 25.0%
Helton - 21.4%
Ramírez - 8.2%
A-Rod - 6.4%
Vizquel - 5.3%
Rollins - 4.0%
Jones - 3.8%
If flip rates were to hold, top projected overall vote shares
Helton
14
12
117
Ballot
#192
is from Tom Haudricourt. K-Rod has his 18th vote of the cycle. Todd Helton continues his incredible run and moves to +35
In the Tracker:
3
15
120
Ballot
#17
is from Patrick Graham. Eight holdovers earn a vote here along with first-year candidates Beltré and Mauer. Five candidates are currently above 75%
In the Tracker:
9
19
120
Ballot
#5
is from Lynn Henning. Billy Wagner earns a vote along with five hitters. No adds or drops for returning candidates
Henning’s column:
In the Tracker:
25
20
118
Ballot
#48
is from Joe McDonald. Eight holdovers earn Joe’s vote along with two first-year candidates. Five candidates are currently tracking above 70%
In the Tracker:
10
10
118
Ballot
#177
is from Mike Bass. He selects each of the five candidates polling at 74% or higher. Jimmy Rollins also earns a vote and improves to +5
Ballot explainer:
In the Tracker:
9
15
118
Ballot
#196
is from Scott Ostler. Returning to the voter pool after a one-year absence, he selects ten candidates. Sheffield reaches 75% and joins four others tracking towards election. Hunter has his tenth vote and is back above 5%
Via San Francisco Chronicle:
17
10
115
Ballot
#126
is from Rich Dubroff. Scott Rolen remains a perfect 10/10 among voters new to the pool this year. Wagner moves to 9/10, Helton and Jones to 8/10, and Sheffield to 7/10
Column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
3
12
115
Ballot
#187
ifs from a voter who wishes to remain anonymous. We cannot report on any adds or drops, if any. José Bautista has his third overall vote of the cycle
In the Tracker:
85
13
113
Ballot
#17
is from David Haugh. Buehrle (+3) and Helton (+5) each gain a vote. Listen in live to an explanation of these selections:
Haugh’s column:
Coming soon to the Tracker
13
15
113
Ballot
#144
is from Paul Hagen. Vizquel (+13) gains a vote along with first-time candidates Jeter and Abreu, in addition to Hagen’s seven holdovers. Ballot explainer:
In the Tracker:
18
24
105