The Trade Brigade
@TradeBrigadeCo
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Trading stock options and #ES_F futures with technical analysis and market profile.
Joined July 2019
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$SPY – Markets saw a solid break to all time highs on the Friday session as Wall St. was hanging out in the Hamptons. Are they going to come back and buy the dip? Or sell the rip? From what I can see, bulls have the upper hand across the board... still.
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I've chatted with over 250 traders on their journey to becoming profitable. From starting at 0, to having traded for a few years or even many years, there are a few key components that help you stay focused on what matters.
With ToS down for the afternoon, here's something a bit
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$SPY – ⚠️ EMERGENCY MEETING ⚠️
Large bearish engulfer that absolutely SMASHED the 517.25 level should really be approached with caution especially into a Friday.
Higher probability
Opens below 517.25 and inside of today's range, look for a counter trend move to set a lower
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Man it feels good to be back in the saddle doing full fledged analysis. Expect a video coming out in about an hour or so. 📈🤓
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$SPY – The biggest bear trap was set on Wednesday when Fintwit collectively decided that we were amidst a stock market crash.
The move has been retraced 100% and there is nothing but bullish evidence across the board in all of the charts we typically examine.
Weekly chart
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$SPY – Look out for the charts this week that say Moody's downgrade is going to produce the same thing as the Fitch downgrade. They should start circulating any minute now!
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$SPY – New all time high on Friday but on horrendous breadth. It honestly looks like a tempting short, however sellers should not overstay their welcome.
Trends remain up on all timeframes, monthly projected moves from the Cov low to previous all time high and cup and handle
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$SPY – Wild end of the session.. Here is how the internals ended up closing out. Breadths positive 2.5 on the NYSE. ADDs in trend higher zone. TICKs positive cumulative.
Most impressive is the index score going from -15 to +2. This would basically imply that everything that
$SPY – Breadths are still green except for the nas. Pretty lack luster reads. ADDs are grinding higher back towards trend higher zone and never actually went negative. TICKs are trying to hold the 0 line and the cumulative is building into the afternoon.
Index score is the
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Setting up all ToS charts over on TradingView. Has the time finally come to make the leap? Lets see how the weekend analysis goes.
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$SPY – Lots of mixed signals coming from the market on the heels of the Thursday breakdown.
Sure it seems like an over reaction at first glance, but take a look at some of the supporting evidence, and the upside momentum is clearly slowing.
SPY weekly trend is up, there is
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This morning I could feel myself getting "tilted." Happened live on the morning show. No trades on the day even after we shut it down.
Contrary to popular belief, I am not an AI algo solely programmed to read charts. I'm a human just like you. Today was not my day, and I accept
$SPY – We're pretty darn close... plus... if you include dividends we're at all time highs!! Lets see whats on tap. Join us.
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$SPY – How classic, a monster rally all Friday, only to have a Moody’s credit downgrade right after the bell.
Here is an objective look at the datapoints to see if this is what it takes for the market to snap back to reality, or if we continue to defy gravity.
Video format
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Please do NOT fall for the bear trap that has been oh so perfectly set on the close of Friday’s session.
While I do believe the market still has some room to fall, the location here is going to get very dangerous for new money shorts.
Video format here:
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$SPY – Lots of fireworks this week with the most notable being the FOMC decision and commentary on Wednesday, Magnificent 7 earnings, labor market report Friday.
If Jay says anything about cuts we'll be alright. If he mentions anything about higher for longer, not yet at
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Buckle up…we’ve got FOMC rate decision and infamous press conference from Powell, the labor report, and AAPL among many others reporting earnings this week…
Video format here:
SPY weekly chart printed a bearish bar, breaking to a new lower low in the
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$SPY – Another week closed, another mega thread for analysis. 🧵👇
Weekly remains bullish. Small shift in tone via the indecisive doji, however, location is bullish. Higher high and higher low, new all time high, and supporting over the previous all time high.
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$SPY – There's something to this buying thats been going on. Note the index scores! A counter trend move generally sees weaker reads. Today is impressive.
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨 Stocks break down to levels not seen since last Friday!!
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$SPY – So much tension in the air on Friday, you could cut it with a knife. SMCI down 20%+, opex chop in many other names, Nasdaq weakness.... But is it all that bad?
SPY weekly now has a two bar balance. Still very much so in an up trend. Plenty of pullback reference points
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$SPY – The liquidation break this afternoon should technically strengthen the market.
Think about it like this: If momentum sellers were going to retrace the morning rally, and cause a nasty daily bar upper wick, that was their shot. The 100% retracement and balance into close
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If I had a dollar for every time someone asks... I wouldn't need to trade!
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If you follow Hormozi, you know about the woman in the red dress. In trading this is getting sucked into the "tinkering phase." Maybe I'll try order flow, maybe I'll try a 9/13 EMA, maybe I'll try market profile... Tinker too much, and you'll lose sight of the objective.
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$SPY – Absolute disrespect... Days not over, but man, markets can't seem to make up their minds. No bueno for trend followers like myself.
$SPY – /ES dont lose sight of 5245. LH being set there is still top of mind for me as we see the /RTY still struggling to make it to the gap from yesterday.
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$SPY – The gap and go market can not be stopped!
Daily trend up. Hourly trend up. Fifteen minute trend down. Gaps are not filling. Strong internals on the Tuesday session.
Daily higher low available anywhere over 437.35. Hourly can flip into a downtrend under 448.1.
Posture in
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$SPY – Do you have what it takes to call the chart for what it is? And act on that as soon as potentially tomorrow?
I see a pullback from all time highs in an uptrend with sellers failing to go lower... Lets see how the overnight sets us up for tomorrow.
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Wednesday’s high is looking like it may have marked a blow off top for this recent rally, especially over in the Nasdaq $QQQ market.
Video format here:
The $SPY weekly bar is solid bodied and green, suggesting that buyers remain in control. Location is
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$UPST hourly chart. Thin structure retracement on the table
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$SPY – The market is finally starting to wake up to the reality of two hot inflation prints. Seeing weakness in the Russell relative to the S&P and Nasdaq would add to the idea that June is a pipe dream for cuts. Powell has the key on Wednesday in his remarks.
On the technical
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Whens the last time you saw this much volume after the close? Goodness!
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$SPY – Hourly timeframe chart is do or die at the trend line low for the opportunity to keep the battle of the timeframes alive. Updated level from 503 to 502 based on it being today's spike low. (yes spike rules are in play)
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$SPY – Buckle up, and prepare for $512.5 and $503. Both could easily be hit this week.
We have earnings from AMD, AMZN, SMCI Tuesday and AAPL Thursday.
FOMC and jPow presser sandwiched in between Wednesday at 2/2:30.
Labor market report Friday...
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$SPY – Things look interesting here for another opportunity to deploy capital early in 2024.
The charts would seemingly suggest that a quick bout of short term pain in the next weeks or few months can then be replaced with long term gain over the next few quarters, and then even
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/ES limit up Monday morning... Circuit breakers in full effect.
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$SPY – Spot the difference between the two images... I can't.
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I foresee trade location hurting LOTS of traders this week. If you haven't at least looked at a weekly chart, do yourself that favor. The trap has been set!
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$SPY – The bearish divergences are becoming somewhat impossible to "ignore." Structure still needs to break first, but seeing the underlying weakness, would be more open to the breakdown now vs. Friday last week.
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$SPY – End of day internals really make me think of the old adage "never short a dull market."
May not look overwhelmingly bullish out there, but it sure as heck isn't a short.
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$SPY – Top down analysis weekly thread. 🧵👇
The weekly chart has reclaimed the most important level at 512.5 which was a high volume node that potentially could have acted as resistance. Now that we are above, ideally this acts as support.
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$QQQ – You really want to be a new money short right here right now? (weekly timeframe chart)
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$SPY – Another week closed, another mega thread of analysis. 🧵👇
Weekly chart looks great here with some consolidation over the volume shelf, prior ATH, aVWAP and fib 38.2 from April's low. Bar closed as a hammer suggesting sustained buying strength at lows.
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$SPY – Is anyone surprised that the market didn't do anything today in terms of major opportunity? We're not...
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$SPY – With NVDA earnings in the rear view, what could the market possibly look forward to? Well... how about a hot PCE print on Thursday.
Wait, did he say HOT PCE? Doesn't that mean the Fed keeps rates higher for longer? You're damn right it does.
So the market has to go down
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Powell: "No March cut."
$SPX: Let me do a quick swan dive.
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$SPY – Everyone concerned about the bearish engulfer on Friday, which is reasonable, however still in uptrends across the board. Weekly, daily, hourly.
Technical picture is fine, stronger sellers not here, risk appetite is still strong, breadth improved. Sector posture could be
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Earnings for Q4 down, market rips up... P/E expansion (likely on the hopes of fed being done) is one fundamental explanation of the rally. More likely is mechanics of gamma and short covering from a technical perspective. h/t:
@FactSet
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The weekly lower high seems to be set, and another break lower might be all it takes for a capitulation style “crash” to unfold based on volatility...
Video format here:
$SPY
Weekly chart closed out a green inverted hammer, giving back slightly more
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$SPY – Pretty lack luster week, but Powell commentary on Friday was interesting and leaned slightly more Hawkish.
Bears will be calling for a double top, bulls will be calling for trend continuation. The data points currently suggest cautious bulls have the edge. Pullback longs
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$SPY – Closes a daily inverted hammer at the all time high. Not a bad thing, and a pullback or some sort of digestion here is not unreasonable. What do we have next week as the potential catalyst? CPI and FOMC.
Buckle up.
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$SPY – The daily higher low should be the primary focus this week if bulls are going to make something out of this counter trend rally.
Video format here:
October's monthly bar closed out with a lower wick supporting off of the inverted head and
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$QQQ bulls looking for gap fill reversal to finish up the week. Will be an interesting path forward if we see a close back inside of the Wednesday range. Failed attempt at an all time high if no higher low?!
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All I can say is I'm happy I have a long term portfolio, because I sure as hell missed the rally this morning. This was not in the /ES game plan.
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$SPY – With the NVDA stock split in force Monday, markets will never be the same. The change in options flow with lighter premiums will likely impact the way that the stock trades.
Technically the uptrend is in tact, but a pullback looks likely here.
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$SPY – Its pretty clear what the market cares most about... The possibility for a rate cut in Q1 2024. Pair that with bullish technicals on higher timeframes showing momentum, and buyers are clearly the ones in control.
Full video format here:
The
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As a retail trader, trying to generate an algo to trade for you is a futile effort. You're competing with millions if not billions of dollars HFTs have to spend on compute and mathematicians. Retails only edge is execution management.
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$SPY – Battle of the timeframes is going to rage on next week based on this closed. Weekly lower high possible below 512.5 area. Daily higher low available 506-503.
Don't expect it to be easy... Earnings, Fed, Labor report all on the docket...
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$SPY – Why is the market higher when the internals look like this? Just take a look at $NVDA. The one stock to rule them all!
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Q: Still don't understand why you analyse price action (bars) without looking at MACD, RSI and stochastic?
A: All MACD, RSI, Stochastic are is a smoothed version of price. Why predict where the indicator is going when you can try to predict, or more appropriately react, to what
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$SPY – Closes once again over the bearish engulfer low! Great support at the daily line in the sand at 522.75. Almost right to the tick. Bulls remain in control!
$SPY – Internals show a mixed bag of neutral to bullish indications. Index score notably bearish though at a -7 currently.
/ES ideally holds higher lows for the rest of the WEEK over the spike base and key level 5262. Thin structure repaired. Buyers need to prove it now.
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$SPY – What an incredible swing from -$5 to +$10 off of the low on Friday's session.
At first glance, any move like this has to be attributed to short squeeze, right? Not so fast... multiple data points say it was a true reversal off the lows!
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$SPY – As of the close we see a look below an fail on the Wednesday low, and the sellers unable to close any of the gap. Tomorrow opening in range increases the odds of balance with an attempt to test ATHs.
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$SPY – Inside bar to close today's session. Next daily setup is a classic break of the two bar high for a rotation to the top of the balance range at 531.4 and test of 5/23 single prints.
Gotta have some fun though and throw in ADP non-farms tomorrow morning at 8:15. We'll see!
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Yes the /ES is down 40 ish points. But does this look like panic at the exchange level? I stand by the opportunity for a monthly higher low attempt to emerge. SPY at 412.5 is structurally relevant. As is SPY at 410. We're at the logical place where seeing a divergence in the
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This can’t be real life… tell me it’s not real life!!!
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$SPY – Well done bears:
✅ S&P downtrend
✅ Bearish market internals
✅ XLF & XLV new downtrends
✅ XLK:XLU ratio breaking down
✅ Higher rates
✅ SHY:HYG trying a new uptrend
✅ Breadth weakening
XLK flush point could be the final domino to fall.
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Do you believe Fridays rally after that labor report? I've got some doubts considering overall trend, internals, breadth, and intermarket relationships. Willing to keep an open mind, especially with CPI on Thursday.
Video format:
$SPY
Weekly timeframe
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Markets close confused. With no major reaction to CPI. Interesting.
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$SPY – Well that aged exactly like milk... just when you think the sellers broke the range, 90* flags ramp us right into close. More fun and games for tomorrow's CPI I suppose!
$SPY – /ES 1hr structure flipping bearish with the lower high below balance from Monday. Interesting ahead of CPI. Could all change on the drop of data tomorrow AM at 8:30... we'll see! For now bears get the edge.
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For those in front of the desk.. Internals are bullish for the $SPY
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$AAPL giving back a good chunk of the run on earnings. A cruel but very real reality we discussed this AM.
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$SPY – Location here continues to be dangerous for new money longs from a R:R perspective. Odds are also starting to favor long liquidation if 435.75 can be broken and closed below on the hourly, for a lower high.
The incremental higher highs over the last three days, yet value
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$SPY – Another week closed, another mega thread of analysis. 🧵👇
Weekly chart has made a huge higher high, new all time high, and clearly has lots of confluence of support at the 525. This is where I would like to see a weekly higher low IF a pullback were to emerge.
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$SPY – April's bar closed so here is a top down analysis of the index.
Higher lows can be found anywhere over the previous ATH or the summer 2023 highs. Stronger sellers (or lack of buyers) would have been able to push the index to that 480 area. Didn't happen.
Thread 🧵👇
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I looked through over 500 charts this weekend so you don't have to. Here are the 5 that seemed interesting.
$APP – Loving the relative strength here on Friday compared to the technology sector and even just broadly the S&P. Looking for a followthrough move up and over the 43.65
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$SPY – Another week closed (& month), another mega thread of analysis. 🧵👇
Monthly remains bullish. Trend is up with possible higher low from April over a 38.2 and prior all time high. Note also April closes < March, and there is 0 sell side follow through. May close > April.
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$SPY – This is the first major gap up in the most recent sequence that did NOT produce a gap and go. Momentum seems to be drying up a bit. Buyers tired, but still technically in control. PCE inflation tomorrow morning...
Under 451.1 on the daily chart and we get lower lows that
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The /ES closing over 4361.5 and ipso facto the yLoD strikes me that an oversold rally can continue tomorrow. Gap close from last Thursday and then re-evaluating for a reversal on a potential daily lower high, pending the look of price action on arrival.
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Considering all of the expectations swirling around out there, this mornings trade should be framed in this context:
Be in the business of managing risk... not swinging for the fences. There's always another trade. There's not an 'undo' button for a bad trade.
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$SPY with the close approaching around that 427.5 level, note that a substantial lower low was produced on the hourly timeframe, and thus its reasonable that a lower high could be the next phase of the move. An up day tomorrow does not ruin the thesis as long as we remain sub 430
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$SPY – Seasonality would seem to suggest that the market is ready for a ripper Q4 and October. Although the market may see an oversold counter trend move, there is not much in the bull category as of right now on the smaller and more immediate timeframes.
Video format here:
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$SPY – File under noteworthy... Price action is divergent from TICK. Open to look below and fail.
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$SPY – Ahh the classic, bad news is good news, and good news is bad news... PCE came in at the markets expectations, but its sure as heck was a hot read. Inflation is NOT continuing to moderate, and instead is stagnating. PMIs that suggested manufacturing contraction, came right
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It never lies. When S&P is caught inbetween and we have divergent broad markets, its trickier to have follow through. Best thing to do here is to see if RTY finds support at Friday LoD in conjunction with NQ holding higher lows over Friday HoD.
Makes for a better long in /ES.
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$SPY – At face value, sure the market didn't do a whole lot... but its what it didn't do that matters. Coming off of a Friday bearish engulfer, with folks convinced the bubble is bursting, where was the follow through?
CPI can change things, but for now... sellers not strong.
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/ES hourly chart attempting a trend reversal. Needs a higher high either into the close, or tomorrow AM!
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It required patience, but it happened. Weekly lower high attempt number 1. Lets begin.
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/ES balancing in the face of bearish edged internals. Supports the idea of not being favorable for new money longs unless there is tight r:r over the 4385 with higher low. /RTY continues to light the way.
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This morning is about fighting the battle of psychological exhaustion if your system calls for risk friendly pullbacks... A market totally dominated by one side can make that a tough system to operate.
Stay strong. Stay patient. Don't lose control this morning on the gap up.
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The point of charting is to identify where strong risk reward opportunities exist. Not predict the future.
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$SPY – So far the biggest issue with the market is the battle of the timeframes. The weekly has the opportunity to trade a lower high, the daily has the opportunity to find a higher low.
Video format here:
Market internals did not agree with the end of
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Certainly don't have 40 years under my belt, but the one sided nature of the market is exhausting to try to trade the last two weeks.
Anyone who says otherwise is likely the product of the covid era of trading.
Everyone I speak with is - "I'm not going to trade indices." "I'm taking a break."
Average trading experience 40 plus years.
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$IWM – Here are some more thoughts about the small caps massively underperforming and the risks that pose for the market.
A discussion came up in the comments of the main YouTube video analysis (this is just a snippet), where it appears as though the market is taking a
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$SPY – After a big fake out to the upside, on seemingly strong internals, the sellers had no issue running away with it into OpEx. Is this failed breakout (or as everyone loves to call it "bull trap") going to resolve with lower prices?
Bear datapoints:
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$SPX – Spot the difference between the selling pressure.
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Its very obvious what the market (broadly speaking) is highly attentive to. The 10 year auction went fine yesterday... 30 year auction today... not so much. 1:01p EST.
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$SPY hourly bulls are back in the fight after generating an equal high and a clear opportunity to produce a higher low. On the 5 minute side, you can clearly see the pullback respecting VWAP thus far after opening range break.
Sellers, this was not what we were looking for!
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$SPY – Understanding "no-mans land" on the daily.
The daily timeframe chart illustrates the early stages of a trend reversal with a series of higher highs and higher lows beginning to emerge. But dont lose sight of the weekly lower high...
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As goes $NVDA so does the market $SPY. This is your new fourth internal. A MUST watch for any index traders these days.
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