C Cady
@Chris_C_Cady
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Index Futures trader -since day one. Inventory is more important than price.
Lower Manhattan
Joined February 2009
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Have you ever noticed that if you get a quick fill on a limit, you are wrong?
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Everyone I speak with is - "I'm not going to trade indices." "I'm taking a break."
Average trading experience 40 plus years.
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2 groups of Institutional players. People who need inventory and execute quietly and strategically. And people who trade 'very obviously' to try to ignite momentum and steer the narrative. Learn to see the difference. Follow the first group. Fade the second one carefully.
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Olde exchange floor saying:
"If you can sell the high, it's not the high."
Have a nice weekend.
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"No crying in commodities."
"If you want a friend, get a dog."
"There are no dumb questions, just don't ask the same question twice."
First day at work, NY Exchange floor. Aug 1, 1980.
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I realized that my emotional response to market moves is a case of recency bias. Even after all these years.
Hope this helps people look forward.
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Don't force the trade. Something 'insane' will definitely happen and then trade. Hope everyone is ok.
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Overheard in late 1999 from a 90-year-old floor trader, by the coatroom on the exchange floor:
"Did you catch this? This huge up move in the Nasdaq?"
"No, I did not. prudence dictates exiting a winning position long before the highs."
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When stock index futures started trading, the exchange had to actually ask floor traders to trade SP's. They even printed up lapel buttons that read "5 minutes pls." Please stand in the SP pit for 5 minutes a day.
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If some market action doesn't make sense, odds are someone has information that is not public yet.
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@Mr_Derivatives
Gambling only requires placing the bet, not stopping the losses.
Trading requires action to stop losses.
Can we move on now?
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As the legendary CBOE trader John Stafford used to say, "what's more important than what does happen is what doesn't". h/t Steve Hawkins
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It will be a lack of buyers- not a big seller- that leads to a tradeable top.
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" The idea is to stay in business - because there are days when they hand out $1000 bills" Trader Vic 1986
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Can buy weakness.
Can buy strength.
Can sell strength for a trade.
Can not sell weakness.
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Ran into my friend Ben (writes a newsletter to a sizable subscriber base) this weekend. He said, "we're close".
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Whatever they taught you in business school does not work in trading crude markets.
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As long as the buyers are getting what they need (higher prices) any selling will be unpredictable.
People whose needs are being met are hard to predict.
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Stocks do not reflect "reality".
Stocks are used to create "reality".
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You can
Buy weakness
Buy strength
Sell strength for a trade
You can never sell weakness
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the real key to trading success lies not in price, but rather in allocation toward supply, which delivers the needed outsized gains by allowing winning, when more is on, and less when not, and also changes the nature of duration to holding as long as possible without overstaying.
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"The ladder gives the illusion of liquidity."
Pete Steidlmayer (creator of market profile)
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Walter N Frank Sr. Chairman of NYSE, 1986. 80 years old at the time. " As soon as you realize you are wrong get out".
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1999/2000 Nasdaq doubled both years. The entire ring got smoked. After the unwind, nobody talked about the bulls (who lost everything) during that period. They were dismissed with a wave of the hand. " just another crazy episode in human history" they said
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1990, I was befriended by a CFTC compliance guy on the exchange floor (still friends). He said that when they liquidate an account or even a clearing firm because of margin they do so at the market immediately. No regard for market conditions. Just so you know.
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Overheard on the trading floor-
"What did the Roman Empire do when they got downgraded?"
"Rome continued debasement until barbarians put them out of their misery' i.e. they never learned."
"Like Mugabe never learned, w b admitting the ponzi."
"Monsters don't do self-scrutiny."
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Unintended consequences of FSOC's low volatility mandate:
The majority of market participants are unskilled in higher volatility trading scenarios.
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Intraday retracements miss the fact that the only orders are above the highs or below the lows. We already cleaned out the book this morning.
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Big traders in the ring used to get a tap on the shoulder when risk thought they had too big of a 'po'.
Now that tap (when it comes) will come from Janet and Jay.
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Every single day, police helicopters hover at low altitude over lower Manhattan.
Every single day, US fighter jets fly past Manhattan.
Vix gets crushed.
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Trading structure in a vertical distribution is a helluva game.
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