RT @DerekTheWeather: Ebbw Vale this morning. ❄️

RT @Winchester21107: Look at the snow in Ebby Vale

@Weather40297744 I'm not getting into it. It's quite frankly a joke.

@JW_Wx_ Give it time mate. We all go through creative blocks or periods of less passion. Hope to see you back in due course.

A cold easterly flow is expected to develop on Friday in association with high-pressure building across Scandinavia. An upper cold pool and weak area of low pressure are expected to bring periods of mainly light rain and sleet across many parts of Southern England and parts of the Midlands through the day on Friday, perhaps patchy light snow across higher elevations at times. The lack of precipitation intensity and very marginal temperature profiles are largely expected to inhibit the risk of any settling snow through the day on Friday. The highest risk of heavier pulses of precipitation coinciding with more optimal cold pooling is expected to occur further West later on Friday evening and overnight into the early morning period of Saturday - where there is a higher probability that heavier pulses of precipitation will fall increasingly wintry to sleet and perhaps wet snow. The strongest signal for snow falling and accumulating is across the hills and mountains of South East Wales across Powys and the Brecon Beacons, where elevation >200m will assist. Even to isolated lower levels, 0.5-1cm accumulations are possible. Given the generally very low accumulation of 1-3cm across hills and a dusting to lower elevations very locally or in very isolated patches, chances of significant disruption are extremely low at around 2-5% for most areas and 10-15% for Welsh and England/Wales borders hills such as the Malverns. Generally, disruption due to falling and laying snow is not not expected. Through Saturday, marginally mild air advects into regions, making any minor accumulations short-lived. This very brief cold pop is one for the greatest enthusiasts - as for many, it will simply be dull, damp, and wintry at times with no real accumulations. Feeling cold in the wind, too.

Not too far away from convective season as Spring approaches in the next months. However, there is a hint of something colder in the short to medium range for around a weeks time. It could well be cold enough for wintriness for parts of the country and dare I say perhaps some snow for some. Updates to follow.

Just to conclude on this one. The secondary meso low was less developmental than most lower resolution models output forecast I.e. ECM and GFS for example and I suppose inline with logic the higher resolution offerings by ARPEGE and AROME offering closer to what was observed in reality. A win for ARPEGE for meso lows approaching from the deep SW ahead of a slowly approaching synaptic scale low.

@TheSnowDreamer Much shallower feature in the end meaning it's further East and less likely to produce significant wind gusts.

It is clear on the latest analysis that the secondary meso low is not as developmental as expected due to insufificient jet interaction and therefore is likely to be closer to Arpege solutions with a weaker shallower feature and therefore a shift to the right of the guidance envelope. Given the latest precipitation signature and VIS-SAT, any strong winds should be reserved for Eastern most districts East Anglia on exit with damaging gusts limited in probability. Gusts could be between 40-50mph. Night folks.

@MetJam_ Less developmental so far

@WxMidlands @DundeeSat Moderate your expectations a little as the low centre is likely to come through Warks of you may get lucky and catch the edge. You are right on the margins, further E in the county the better - that is Warks specifically.

To note to everyone reading this. The crosses represent where the low centre is approx expected to pass and therefore a calm period followed by localized back edge intense winds. Areas to the right of the X I.e. where the gales text is roughly covering is where the highest risk is.

Hi Rachel. I will say that the centre of the low is passing very close or right over the Leicestershire area in general - although it's difficult to be so precise. If it does it will bring a lull in the winds accompanied by heavier rain and as the low moves away you'll get a brief intense spell of winds on the back edge. Of course, given the small size of the low an element of luck will be required here. Fingers crossed 🤞

RT @DundeeSat: NOAA-15, 1943 UTC Overpass AVHRR Channel 4 radiated heat:

RT @Handry_Outlook: A convective outlook has been issued🌩️ Valid: Today 18:00 - MON 18:00 Heavy showers and strong gusts will affect parts…

RT @DaveThroup: A small area of low pressure is developing rapidly to the SW this afternoon. Will continue to develop as it moves swiftly…

@DundeeSat Thanks, Dundee. Will keep an eye out for this.