Wade Sickler
@TheBon_Scott
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Personal Twitter account for Wade Sickler. Former hedge fund manager with 34 years of market experience.
Joined August 2010
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The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has been having a good track record of identifying material-sized pullbacks and/or intermediate-term trend changes after a big rally. It's now turning back down below 70, triggering a sell signal. $SPX
#StockMarket
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Negative divergences in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator have been quite good at signalling sharp declines in the market. We're looking at one now. $SPX $SPY
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Keep an eye on the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index. The indicator has a pretty decent track record of identifying medium-term trend reversals. Here's the indicator matched with the Nasdaq Index. $COMPQ $NDX $QQQ
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1/ Given the pattern we’ve been seeing since the S&P 500 peaked in early Jan 2022, this rally most likely has more room to go. A move over 70 on the Bullish Percent Index, followed by a move back below 70, triggers a sell signal on this indicator. $SPX $SPY
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1/ Updating the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index. $SPX. It's now at a high/overbought reading, and a decline back down through 70 registers a sell signal. But not all overbought readings are created equal. In bull markets, stocks get overbought and stay overbought. If a bull regime
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The NASDAQ advance/decline line is now below where it was in late December, despite the index being up 16% since then. It's not real pretty outside of mega-cap tech.
#Nasdaq
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@McMillianSZN
@f00tballfeen
Nah, get him an OL and Sean Payton open up the damn offense. Whenever Payton did open it up, Russ and the Broncos moved the ball well.
The play calling was so predictable, often, that everybody in the stadium and watching on TV knew what play was coming next.
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@Blitz_Burgh
The Steelers are in win now mode, and they got a big upgrade in bringing in Russell.
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While the $QQQ was up for the month of April, and poked to a new high for the year, the extreme narrowness of the rally continued to worsen. $RSP $NDX
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@NFL_DovKleiman
Good. It works terribly to sit your starters all/most/much of the preseason and then expect them to gel in the first game of the regular season.
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@MaxPowers44
@espn
No, one of the worst play calls in NFL history cost the game. The Seahawks could have just handed the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and scored the TD.
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The $QQQ has now definitively broken below its uptrend channel, and closed below short-term price support at last week's Sept 7th closing low. Its MACD is about to register another sell signal and a breakout failure. $NDX
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@laurenboebert
You want to kill immigrant families with tanks? Women, children? And you call yourself a Christian?
You're a horrible person.
#FakeChristian
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@RealKiefer
Donald Sutherland was in many great movies, but my favorite role of his may be The Dirty Dozen. A fun, comedic element in a terrific war movie.
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1/ The Nasdaq's Hi-Low indicator is beginning to roll over. Since late 2021, every time it's rolled over before (after the indicator has had a good-sized run), it's led to a material-sized decline; not just a 2 or 3 day affair.
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@StrollerAdam
Yeah, the more the ball is in her hands, the better chance Indiana has of winning. She'll find the open player if they double-up on her.
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1/ The $SPX has broken down below the uptrend channel and line on its triangle. Its MACD is about to register another sell signal and a breakout failure. Next support is at 4330-4335, which also dates back to its August 2022 high (chart on next page). $SPY
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@MacroAlf
A black swan event, the Sept 2008 Lehman bankruptcy, induced a global credit crunch and pushed the global economy into a recession. It was quite a different set of circumstances, rather than just being the Fed Funds rate that pushed the economy into recession.
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Updating the the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index chart from August 8th, it again provided a good trend change signal. I use a variety of indicators/methods to try to identify trend changes, and then position aggressively when a high number of them are buttressing each other. $SPX
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has been having a good track record of identifying material-sized pullbacks and/or intermediate-term trend changes after a big rally. It's now turning back down below 70, triggering a sell signal. $SPX
#StockMarket
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The small-cap Russell 2000 has decisively broken down through a head & shoulders formation, simultaneous to falling below its 200 dma. A bad combo. This illustrates the market's risk-off appetite accelerating, and may also indicate economic slowdown concerns. $IWM $IWO
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1/ The $NDX is finally showing some signs of exhaustion and some short-term, or more, topping behavior. Last week, the $QQQ put in two shooting star candles and a separate day’s bearish reversal on heavy volume. All of that happening in one week isn't just a coincidence.
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@Mr_Derivatives
$SMCI got its big second wind when it got added to the S&P 500. $NVDA doesn't have something like that waiting in the wings. I suspect that $NVDA consolidates until next quarter's ER & guidance.
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@qwerty12702
@ericgoldwyn
Because as game times increase to very long amounts of time, fewer people are willing to make the time and $$ investment to buy tickets to go to a game. And fewer people are willing to invest time into watching games on TV. Not everybody has all day to attend/watch MLB games.
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#Oil
stocks are getting hit hard today. Sellers don't really care what Powell says tomorrow, it's quite predictable. More importantly, the chances of a deeper & longer
#recession
have just increased considerably, and market rallies will likely be sold into.
#Banks
#Creditcrunch
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$AMD is looking vulnerable. It's showing a negative RSI divergence and had huge volume on its June 13th reversal and bearish engulfing. Its MACD is signaling a sell. $AMD is not only significantly underperforming $NVDA, it's now starting to underperform the $SMH. $SOX
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1/ The NYSE McClellan Summation Index has a lot more room to go in this rally, potentially, but we don't want to see the index start faltering and roll over. If you recall, the July-Aug '22 and the Jan '23 rallies had very good breadth.
#StockMarket
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@veryrareDG
@NFLonCBS
@Broncos
We had the worst defense in the league in the first 5 games, do you want him to play on D, too?
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I've been maintaining my expectation that the $SPX was going to retest the 3800-3850 area, but with the developing new leg of the banking crisis and credit crunch, the downside risk has increased. But first, we'll see how the market handles 3800 if/when we get there. $SPY
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The $QQQ's RSI has now poked over 70. It's mattered when it's done so on prior occasions (or come very close thereto) over the last year, let's see if it matters this time. $NDX
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@MacroAlf
Banks have much healthier balance sheets, this time around, due to regulatory changes made after the 2008-2009 credit crisis. That's not to say a major credit event won't happen down the road, it's just that it's not in the cards right now.
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I've posted this chart on prior occasions, but the traditional relationship between tech stocks and bonds has become pretty much become untethered. $QQQ $TLT
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There's a number of different ways to illustrate the market's poor breadth. One is the negative divergence of the Nasdaq's Advance/Decline line. Despite the Nasdaq just closing right where it did in early February, the A/D line is still way off of its level of that time.
#Nasdaq
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$NVDA put in its first red weekly bar of the year. $SMH $SOX
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A lot of stocks are getting pummeled, across a number of industries, when missing estimates or guiding down this quarter -- even slightly. IIRC, the market hasn't been this unforgiving for a few quarters. Bearish action. Just a few examples:
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The Nasdaq was up 1% today, but there was over a hundred new 52-week lows today than there was yesterday. $COMPQ
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We had the highest number of new lows on the Nasdaq today since Dec 29th. It's not a huge number of new lows yet, but it is something to pay attention to as the Nasdaq is up 10.4% during that time.
#Divergence
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@LaurenzRod
@bendreyfuss
@BetterPhetasy
You want to start with the military, border control and the Veterans Administration?
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Game plan for today: Sell everything, mortgage the house, and put everything into $NVDA -- it's going to at least $5,000.
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@BidenMyTime_
@RpsAgainstTrump
Thought all those small communities in Ohio hated the federal government??
Funny how that works.
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If we don't hold Friday's low and the 200 dma on this test (which I think is unlikely), the next key support level is 3780; which was the closing low on December 28th. $SPX $SPY
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$AAPL, the largest market cap in the world, joins $MSFT, the 2nd largest, in falling below its 200 dma. Like $MSFT, $AAPL hadn't been below its 200 dma since January. $NDX $QQQ $SPX
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Semiconductor stock $AVGO with a big shooting star reversal on very heavy volume. This stock has most likely seen its high for a while. $SMH
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There's been some seriously unhealthy action in some regional banks the last 2 days. Serious red flag. i.e. $RF $FITB $KRE
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Semiconductors are starting to lose momentum. The RSI is showing a negative divergence, and a recent MACD buy signal is not showing good follow-through momentum. $SMH $SOX $NVDA $TSM
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$CAT, an important
#recession
trade tell, is threatening to breakdown through its March low and its 200 dma. $DE has already done so, and $CAT is likely to do so as well as the recession trade marches on.
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If the 10-year yield breaks out over resistance at 4.095, you can say "Hasta la vista, baby" to the stock market rally for a while. $TNX
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1/ The $SPX currently has 20% of its components trading over their 50 dma, compared to 50% at the start of the year. The % decline comes as the $SPX is up 2% during that time. The bearish negative divergence illustrates the market's continuing weakening breadth.
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$NVDA turned back to red at the end of the day, and has acted quite poorly relative to the market 3 days in a row. It's acting like a stock that is in the process of making a more significant pullback, and not just a quick, small pullback like it has been doing all year. $SMH
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@Rainmaker1973
That is a crazy and difficult sport. I pole vaulted in high school, and I can't imagine vaulting that high.
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As you would expect, when the market starts going risk-off, the semiconductors typically underperform (decline further) the $SPX and the DJIA. The semis already started underperforming in late April and then picked up velocity. The $SMH underperformed the $SPX 2-1 today. $SOX
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Not only did the Nasdaq 100 rally and breakout come on very narrow breadth, it's formed a negative RSI divergence despite the higher price. Its MACD is also threatening to fail and rollover. $NDX $QQQ
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The $QQQ is threatening to break down from its uptrend channel/bear flag. The $SPX is similarly situated. $NDX
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And just like that.. the $VIX is now back down to where it was before the "banking crisis" began (SVB Financial).
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The small-cap Russell 2000 is threatening to break down through a head & shoulders formation simultaneous with its 200 dma. $IWM $IWO
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The Nasdaq cumulative Advance/Decline line is only slightly above where it was in late December, and the
#Nasdaq
is up 20% since that time. $NDX $QQQ
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@StealthQE4
If you become homeless, don't have a car and stop eating... you'll experience very little inflation.
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The $SMH is threatening to break down through a head & shoulders formation. $SOX $NVDA
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@TDISportsClips
At the 9-10 second mark on the video, Ventura starts thinking, "Oh crap, what did I get myself into."
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I don't know for sure how long money managers/investors are going to keep "hiding out" in mega-cap tech, but it hasn't paid to buy $MSFT near the upper-end of this range. $NDX $QQQ
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1/ $TSLA continues to underperform the market since it announced another round of price cuts last week. $TSLA was down 2% yesterday while the $SPX was slightly positive, and TSLA was down 3.1% today while the SPX was down 1.5%. This is the kind of poor relative strength I look
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$MSFT followed-through on the bearish gravestone doji it put in on its weekly chart 3 weeks ago. Its weekly MACD is now registering a sell signal. $NDX $QQQ $SPX
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The futures are currently set for a strong open in the morning (but a lot can change between now and then). The $SPX has stiff overhead resistance above at the 200 dma, and a test of 3780-3800 is most likely. I may be adding shorts on the bounce if the tape/breadth is tepid.
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@Blitz_Burgh
Prediction: Russell and the Steelers have a good year, getting at least 1 playoff win, and Russell signs a 3-year contract afterwards.
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Thursday morning, I posted that the recent big moves in AI plays and mega-cap tech feels kind of like a buying panic. Turns out, $NDX call volume on Thursday was the highest it's been since since 2014. $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $ORCL
More crowding into the AI plays -- rising long-term yields and the dollar be damned... for now. It "feels" kind of like a buying panic, but it's impossible to say at this point, other than it's quite frothy.
Real crowded.
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@Blitz_Burgh
Russ and the Steelers are going to do well. Russ still has it, and he's got a lot of gas in the tank.
- Writing from Denver.
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Since it topped in June, all of $AMD's heavy volume days have come on downside reversals (bearish engulfing candles). The stock has a date with its 200 dma. $SMH
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