eric goldwyn
@ericgoldwyn
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@nyumarron | [email protected] | https://t.co/hNv8Fm7jAK | a lot of damaged soles, I done damaged those | transition lenses | alamo/astor place cube fan account
Community Garden
Joined August 2010
This framing is insane. A ***30% increase in ridership*** is a success. Let’s not pretend otherwise. What business would say, hey we increased our customer base by 30%, but we are sad?
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European subway/metro stations often lack overhead canopies/cover. In the US, conversely, even in some of our drier climates you almost always have canopies. Why? Abundance of escalator maintainers in Copenhagen?
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In early 2022, @alon_levy, @elifensari, & I are going to hire someone, who can help us figure out how to build high speed rail along the northeast corridor for less than $100 billion. We want to learn from other countries and apply those lessons to the US. Get in touch!.
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Today we published our Phase 1 of the Second Avenue Subway case study. We show oversized stations (specifically back-of-house spaces), extractive negotiations with city agencies, a diminution of in-house capacity and embrace of consultants over everything drive costs and delay.
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A deep dive on our transit costs research by @A_W_Gordon, who moderated our in person event last week.
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@ndhapple Baseball does have natural breaks in the game, which are not driven by commercials. BUT, they probably could shorten some of them. Getting average game time down to 2 hours would be amazing.
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This is genuinely amazing. This is what happens when experts focus on a problem, overly large transit stations, and minimize station footprints to reduce costs so they can build more. Looks like metro milan, systra, and aecom led the redesign.
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Below is a map showing grade separations for CA HSR and BNSF, the freight railroad. CA HSR agreed to pay for 6 *parallel* BNSF grade seps in Shafter to resolve a lawsuit. The feds will end up paying the $202 million, but why should rail projects be liable for these things?
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Last week we published our final report re: transit costs. All of this follows from our finding (not unique) that the US pays more for transit projects than other countries in our database.
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People have been beating up on VTA for crazy costs. $12.2 billion for 33,000 daily riders is the most expensive cost per rider I’ve ever calculated (~$370,000). That’s more than 10x SAS phase 1’s cost per rider in inflation adjusted dollars. More here:
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Enjoyed this @palladiummag piece on why we can’t build anymore. This closely aligns with things we have found in our ongoing transit costs work. The major issues re: diminished in-house capacity and nimbyism have slowed schedules and increased costs.
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Some preliminary analysis by @elifensari of IBX's job access improvements. You'll never guess which stops have the lowest population density, lowest FARs, highest car ownership rates, lowest transit usage, etc., etc.
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We just released a new report on speeding up HSR project delivery. The basic gist in 5 recommendations: we need to make a commitment to intercity passenger rail. This means authority, funding, and vision.
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Work with @alon_levy and me at @NYUMarron. We are trying to figure out why it’s so expensive to build subways in America and how we can do better. We are building a database with costs and project scopes and doing in-depth cases. Apply here
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What’s going to happen to that $3.4 billion from USDOT for Second Avenue Subway Phase 2? Are we sending it back?.
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450M per mile of surface light rail is definitely a US record, at least based on this audit of projects from Minnesota:
$450M per mile for a surface light rail line. What a mess. Even with a new bridge this is criminal pricing. Portland built a surface streetcar loop for $45m per mile. 10% of the cost. WHY IS IT SO EXPENSIVE?!.
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Reading Sound Transit board documents. The decision to study a new station alternative will cost ~$800,000 in consultant fees. It will likely delay the project by a year, which, just in inflation terms could cost ~$750,000,000, assuming 5%. Pencils down!
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Is the point of congestion pricing to limit the number of total people who enter the zone or increase it? Ht: @Komanoff
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What do people think happens when the MTA issues a stop work order and reboot months/years later? Prices go up? Down? Stay the same? One key takeaway from our New York case study is that governors & city agencies impede MTA projects and drive up costs:
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For the grade-separation crowd. This is what I was trying to convey in the HSR report re: parallel grade separations. BNSF and CA HSR will have ***individual*** elevated grade separations running through Shafter, thanks to CA HSR and FRA.
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Same is true for transit! In general, the idea of free form, unconstrained review is terrible. Process is good if the process is good. Process is bad if the process is bad.
It takes 23 months—a hair under two years—for a fully entitled apartment development in San Francisco to secure building permits. We need shot clocks and third party reviews and inspections.
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@MarketUrbanism I feel like there’s a WMATA study about the benefits of canopies on escalator maintenance. But clearly something else is going on here. Like I’m sure the Danes aren’t replacing escalators way more frequently or paying a bunch in maintenance costs. Interesting re: practice.
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While chatting with @mattyglesias about US transit costs, he asked how the US compared to the world. I hesitate to give a concise answer because of variation. Here's a chart we (@elifensari & @alon_levy) put on our site re: costs/km, tunnel %, & country that tells the story.
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The benefits of electric trains are enormous: faster acceleration, shorter dwells, higher top speeds, and potentially clean! Huge kudos to @Caltrain. Hopefully, this is only the beginning.
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New York's Public Service Commission employed over 1000 engineers during the Dual Contracts era of subway construction in the 1910s and 1920s. The PSC was also responsible for utilities! This is a very different model than anything that exists in the US today.
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One of my favorite things about our high-speed rail report is that it *doesn’t* include a proposed route map. Maps are great, but we really need to address some first principles re: governance and planning. Also there are already so many great maps!
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I love what the MTA is doing. I think we are moving in better direction. We need to resolve these congestion pricing lawsuits and tender contracts. Finally, we need to focus on speeding up delivery. Instead 7 years, how do we build phase 2 in 4 years?
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Here’s an example from the second Avenue subway. This is an open station with no support columns as far as the eye can see, though not unique to NYC. The design inspiration, I have been told, comes from visiting new builds from the late 1990s in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Bangkok.
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In New York, at least in about 2010, for every tunnel boring machine a contractor used for boring a subway tunnel, it had to pay Local 147 $350,000. Second Avenue Subway Phase 1 used 1 TBM. In Istanbul it is required that contractors have 4, 6, or more TBMs.
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"The high costs of the 96th Street station can be partly.explained by the inclusion of 65,000 square feet for the.MTA workforce in underground facilities and office space,.requiring expensive blasting.".
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For a little less than a year I’ve been working with a group in Seattle to help speed up project delivery & restructure Sound Transit’s capital plan. This has been a great opportunity to apply our academic work into the real world.
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When I'm bored I like to think about the origin of the b24 and q38 route alignments. Is there bus route design fan fiction?
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Good to see @ndhapple shining a light on the problem of excessive station sizes. Larger stations lead to $$$ projects & longer construction timelines. Smaller stations, specifically in terms of non-passenger back-of-house space, is one path to that goal.
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look i'm a boomer, with transition lenses, but this doesn't instill confidence: "Rather, designers will spend the next several months working with community members to envision a transit system that feels uniquely Austin." h/t: @urbenschneider
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Are you interested in transit-infrastructure projects? Are you interested in understanding what drives costs across cities/countries? Do you read foreign languages? Do you know what a database is? Are you interested in speaking to @alon_levy and me? We may have a job for you.
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"[Chinese] HSR typically captures up to half of the conventional rail traffic, most of the intercity bus traffic (except for short distances), & a large share of air traffic up to 800 km. In China, HSR also generates 10–20% new trips that were not previously made by any mode.".
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The final Brooklyn Bus Network Redesign report is done. Thank you to @drooliet for her keen design sense. If interested get in touch with @alon_levy and me. Cc: @WeTheCommuters @TheWarOnCars @NYDailyNews @NYTMetro @amNewYork @nypost @WSJNY @NYCSpeakerCoJo @BPEricAdams @NYCTBus
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"The 'hard' construction cost of an underground center platform station was estimated at $53,500,000. By contrast, the cost of an open-cut center platform station was estimated at $3,500,000.".
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In an image VTA has perfectly diagrammed the cost issues we have been studying. A lot of excavated earth to accomplish a mid-sized building worth of fans and very generous underground circulation. The tracks appear secondary at best in this rendering.
VTA also has updated its rendering of the Downtown San Jose BART station, where the platforms will be 69 and 87 feet below street level
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Let’s start the rezoning push along the IBX corridor. If we are going to spend $5-6 billion, let’s allow housing and commercial spaces to be built around it to support ridership and ease rent burden. Need CMs to start thinking about land use citywide rather than in their district.
People are being priced out because we don’t have enough housing. Let’s fix that.
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“When existing bus routes are unreliable and slow, focusing attention on microtransit is like trying to perfect dessert at a restaurant that routinely burns the entrees.”.
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“The more places which appeared to be getting service, the better the prospects for the proposition passing. As one member of the LACTC staff put it ‘basically you just take a small map of L.A. and a big felt tip.’”
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Lots of the proposed Amtrak services look good on a map, but these travel times & frequencies continue ongoing problems. Houston to San Antonio seems like a useful service, but at 4:45 by train versus 3 hours by car & 1 hour by plane, it's hard to see why anyone would take it.
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Wrote about governance & transit costs for @Noahpinion. Always happy to get into the details of specific projects & cost categories, but the issue of governance, while vague, is critical to alignments, wages, third party agreements, design, & timelines:
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Meant to post the proposed Union Square station versus the actual Union Square station. In the initial GLX plan, the average station cost was ~$60 million, in the revised plan it was under ~$20 million. The overall square footage across the 7 stations was reduced by 91%!!!
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This says so much about the lack of ambition to fund great SEPTA projects. The Phillies may be better than the Mets, but SAS phase 2 is getting +$3 billion.
Today, @SecretaryPete, @SenBobCasey, and I announced a $500 million federal grant to replace I-83 South Bridge over the Susquehanna River — the largest federal transportation grant for a single project in Pennsylvania history. For a year and a half, I've bothered @POTUS and
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Remember when New York had wooden streets? If you weren't there, you aren't a *real* New Yorker
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The US lacks basic high-speed rail design standards. This images below shows American standard rail, European standard high-speed rail, and Japanese Standard high-speed rail. Variation isn’t the end of the world, but we lack standards on other basic components too.
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Here's a link dump from our webinar with @JerusalemDemsas:. The webinar: The Italian Case by @ChittiMarco: The Istanbul Case by @elifensari: @alon_levy is omnipresent.
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Love this LA Metro chart showing level of influence over projects & expenditures during project life cycle. The basic point is that the ability to get in front of cost and delay drivers is in the earliest phases. Once contracts are tendered, the game is over. ht: @numble
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Wrote about some of the lessons we can learn from REM for @TransitCenter. Re: governance: Quebec passed a law that established timelines and consequences for local permitting decisions. In the US we don’t effectively operationalize time.
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If you don’t want to work with @alon_levy and me, but you want to share information & help us understand why transit-infrastructure costs vary from country to country, dm/email us. We need data, experts, & people with information from inside agencies, consultancies, & the trades.
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“She also highlighted that rail now has an 80% share of the rail-air market on the famous ‘air bridge’ route between Madrid and Barcelona.”.
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2023 was exciting for the transit costs project team. In addition to releasing our final report, we have engaged with agencies, consultants, media, academics, researchers, and done a lot of zooms.
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Some tweet streaming @EnoTrans newest report on international project delivery. Average costs for tunneled projects. If you exclude New York, the US numbers basically get cut in half
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When high costs make it impossible to justify a rail tunnel…
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One reason why @alon_levy, @elifensari, and I have looked at transit-infrastructure costs is that there is no discernible connection between GDP and costs. Rich countries like Norway and Switzerland build cheaply and poorer countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam don't.
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Pro state capacity, yes! How do we resolve regional vs. local tension? That seems to be the crux of the permitting debate. There are cities and towns that were created to be separate from the central city. When we plan transport networks we need regions to work cohesively.
America is suffering from a lack of bureaucracy -- by which I don't mean rules and red tape, but a competent civil service capable of getting things built cheaply. We need to bring back the bureaucrats!.
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We were impressed by Istanbul's approach to minimize station digs by excavating smaller station boxes and stacking back-of-house facilities above the passenger areas. Istanbul manages to build similarly sized passenger areas with much smaller digs.
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Megaprojects breed extraction. NYC DEP wanted bigger & more expensive pipes; NYC DOT wanted bike lanes, bus lanes, floating curbs, new street lights, and uniform paving, even in areas w/o construction; NYC Parks wanted cash, replacement trees, and funding for additional staff.
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We, @alon_levy & @elifensari, compiled a comprehensive tunneling staffing/wages sheet for Second Avenue Subway phase 1. A few things to note, tunneling ran from May 2010 to September 2011 so even at ~600k/month, this was a tiny fraction of the ~$4.5 billion project.
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Now that Amtrak is about to receive a windfall, @EnglishRail & I look back at Amtrak’s first 50 years. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of the past, and let’s not assume intercity passenger rail is completely obsolete, as naysayers did 50 years ago:
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Here is what 173 bus operators say would make them more effective at their job (don't worry i have a few hundred more surveys to enter).
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This is why we need to figure out how to build faster & cheaper. Phase 2 of the second Ave. subway is estimated to cost *$4 billion a mile*. Long term planning, smaller stations, greater MTA capacity, genuine partnership with the city and unions, & political support are vital.
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Im all about the 14th street busway. Everyone seems to think that the 27,000 daily riders on 14th street deserve more reliable service--they do. HOW about the 27,000 daily riders on Church Avenue? More busways, please @NYC_DOT @TWULocal100 @NYCTBus.
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This is just an incredible graphic of total jobs in New York
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This is just a teaser of the great work @elifensari is doing to transform @alon_levy, @YaoYinan_, @AnanMaalouf, & @abdirashidmd's rich transit-infrastructure cost data into a website. Can't wait until we have finalized all the details & launch the site with +500 projects.
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Every agency thinking about an underground subway/light rail extension should take a deeper look at this, and see if there are ways to build more transit capacity for every dollar. Even better, FTA should lead on this so that agencies have some guidance.
This is genuinely amazing. This is what happens when experts focus on a problem, overly large transit stations, and minimize station footprints to reduce costs so they can build more. Looks like metro milan, systra, and aecom led the redesign.
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Yes, we have higher wages. BUT, we are also less productive & overstaffed. In our GLX case, the general contractor proposed 1 supervisor for every 1.8 laborers. Internationally, this ratio is closer to 1:5. This is why some sites appear to have more people watching than doing.
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Did some back of the envelope estimating for the @BlvdSubway. If we could build at global averages it would be a ~$4.5 billion project. A big number, but reasonable for a 15-mile project. At US costs, it's likely closer to a ~$15 billion project, which is probably unfundable.
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Definitely an exciting project with enormous benefits, even if $$$. Let’s lower costs by right sizing stations, scrutinizing fire codes, and aggressively managing utility interfaces. This is a challenging because of the tie-ins, let’s get some help from abroad.
NY Gov Hochul is asking the MTA to consider keeping the 2 Ave Subway tunnel boring machines going past 125/Park (the end point of phase 2), continuing to 125/Broadway, thus saving $400m on a future 3rd phase by completing the tunnels early. Seems like a pretty good idea!
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When I teach this is the exact stretch of streetcar I show my students! So glad to have this video.
Cruising into 2022 like a champ! The #kcstreetcar is running today, 8am-midnight. #HappyNewYear #KansasCity! . @FTA_DOT @APTA_Transit @KCMO
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“The Shinkansen required an expert bureaucracy as much as it did good track. But [congress] had little interest in laying this institutional groundwork. They preferred to salivate over the bullet train alone while overlooking the administrative labor that maintained it.”.
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We, @elifensari, @alon_levy, @ChittiMarco, compared LA’s Purple Line 1 & Istanbul’s M1B. This is our first attempt to compare platform length, construction method, financing, etc. Let us know what you think. check it out:
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2021 marks the 50th anniversary of @Amtrak. @EnglishRail and I wrote about how most didn’t think Amtrak would last 5 years, let alone 50, and how schedules, frequencies, delays, and lack of autonomy continue to plague it for @mattyglesias’ slow boring:
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Transit Costs Project super fan.
On the ground in Rome under the Coliseum! We're two international cities full of tourists, visitors and the every day working people who make our cities run. Sharing our ideas and accomplishments on infrastructure, public transit and everything big cities need will only make us
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Just published a new paper about politics and transit projects. This builds on all of the TCP work we have done, but is packaged for an academic journal
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Was walking past an ancillary facility for phase 1 of the second Avenue subway on 69th street. The emergency exit door was wide open. I have always wanted to see inside. If you’re like me, here you go:
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Excited by the prospect of an Interborough Express. Much has been made about connecting Brooklyn and Queens, but havent seen much about land use. @elifensari and I took a quick look at the travel and land-use data for @replica:
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“The Seattle Transit Commission had urged the Washington State Highway Department in 1953 to include a 50-foot median in the new freeway as a future rail right-of-way. The state rejected the rail plan.”.
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I was surprised to learn that more bus passengers in Brooklyn transfer to the bus (37%) than the subway (35%). This is a strong indication that service improvements, greater frequencies and reliability, should be foundational to any redesign.
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“To illustrate the accelerated pace at which spending is taking place, consider that China used more cement in the three years 2011-13 than the United States in the entire twentieth century.”.
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Since the 1990s, the capital construction arm of New York City Transit, CPM, has been dissolved & overtaken by MTA CC, and MTA C&D. CPM had 1,600 staffers who performed 95% of construction management and 60% of designs. MTA CC during phase 1 had ~120 full-time employees.
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I spoke to someone about GLX today, which reminded me of these old presentations re: station design and community character. I love that someone gave a presentation and explained community character with this image.
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Folks are skewering the GAO transit infrastructure study. @alon_levy & I via @NYUMarron have a research project ready to share with any foundations or wealthy individuals who want to uncover why US transit infrastructure costs are so high. Get in touch if you want more info.
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Excited to share our site, We definitely need your help adding data, finding documents, understanding nuance, making corrections, and improving site stability! Please get in touch if you know about any of these things: info@transitcosts.com.
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Wonderful deep dive on high-speed rail. Eager to see it come to the US. I’m most interested in the planning and decisions re: improving bus, subway, and regional/commuter rail connections to ensure people can actually use these services when they arrive.
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LIRR fare integration would really help Queens out! Look at all those blue dots (half-mile from LIRR stops) within the yellow boundary. If i were an elected in queens this is what i would harp on re: congestion pricing. cc: @IDaneekMiller @drichards13 @CMPeterKoo @LeroyComrie
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We recently refreshed our transit costs website. We are also planning to update the database in light of new data on planned projects:
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Just wanted to give a final 2021 shoutout to the great @alon_levy, @elifensari, @ChittiMarco, @abdirashidmd, @YaoYinan_, @Union_Tpke, & others who helped us put out bangers in 2021. Excited to share our next set of cases & start our HSR work in 2022. As always, get in touch!.
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@the_transit_guy This is the opening vignette of something I wrote a while back for @Noahpinion. Universities, UW, UMN, etc. all trot this out. I was told GOT was willing insulate several rooms at duke, but the university countered with, well what if we move the machinery?.
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@patrickc @AidanRMackenzie Isn’t the joke that SNCF was so disillusioned with CA HSR that it left for Morocco? I think SNCF said Morocco was less politically dysfunctional than California.
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Anyone who has visited phase 1 stations knows they're spacious. What is less obvious is all of the space blasted out of Manhattan Schist that you don't see or even know exists.
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Anyhow, it's been a thrill working with @alon_levy, @elifensari, @ChittiMarco, @AnanMaalouf, @abdirashidmd, @YaoYinan_, @JRUrbaneNetwork, @Union_Tpke, @rjdaniell, and others on this. For more check here:
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