Sue Mi Terry
@SueMiTerry
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Ex-government drone. Mom. Documentary producer. Traveler & foodie. Improving tennis player. Opinions my own. RT≠ endorsement.
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Joined September 2012
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In my
@ForeignAffairs
article, as the US heads into November's elections, I talk about potential October surprise from Kim Jong Un and why it makes sense from his perspective. Moscow and Beijing meanwhile allow Kim to act with newfound impunity.
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1. THREAD. Bolton has a lot to say about Trump and N Korea in his book. It hasn’t all been reported in the book coverage.
A few highlights from his “Singapore Sling” chapter follow...
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I tried to vote today in NYC. I found a very long line (many blocks long) in the rain & cold. In the end, I failed to vote because I had to leave for a meeting. Inspiring to see so many voting but dispiriting to see how hard it is. Will try again tomorrow. Open more locations!
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“‘I did the Tom Cruise peel before Tom Cruise did.” What a delightful
@WSJ
interview with the CIA’s former chief of disguise.
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My former colleague Michael Collins from CIA East Asia Mission Center sums up Xi’s goal: China under the current leadership fundamentally seeks to replace the US as the leading power in the world.
#AspenSecurityForum
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Yes. While Kim Jong-un is rational, how can he have a clear understanding of consequences of his decisions/actions when no advisor around him can tell him he might be wrong about something?
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.
@TheWilsonCenter
family mourns the passing of
@tnak0214
. Professor Toshi Nakayama made many friends and left a profound influence on our institution during his year as a Wilson Center fellow. He was a leading scholar of the US-Japan relationship. We will carry on his legacy.
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Completely. Bush & Obama (& Lieberman) all gave moving eulogies but it was
@MeghanMcCain
’s eulogy & Renee Fleming’s haunting rendition of “Danny Boy” that broke me. Perhaps feeling extra emotional because of the times we live in & the loss that McCain’s passing represents.
Danny Boy undid Cindy McCain and many of us there
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And it was my first time experiencing sitting through a 3-hour panel w/o any break! But it was good times though, thanks to MSNBC special coverage on N Korea with
@maddow
et al.
With all due respect to CNN & Dennis Rodman, so glad it was
@CSIS
night on MSNBC, with my insightful colleagues
@VictorDCha
and
@SueMiTerry
helping us understand the Singapore summit.
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UPDATE: I finally got to vote! Got up at 6 am on Saturday but it was worth it. Only took about 2 hours.
I tried to vote today in NYC. I found a very long line (many blocks long) in the rain & cold. In the end, I failed to vote because I had to leave for a meeting. Inspiring to see so many voting but dispiriting to see how hard it is. Will try again tomorrow. Open more locations!
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Given my intel background, I love spy shows like “The Americans” & “Prisoners of War.” But most are totally unrealistic. “The Bureau” is the first one I’ve seen that gets it right. Hyper realistic & suspenseful. Perfect cure for my covid blues. On season 2—don’t want it to end!
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6. Neither Kelly, Pompeo, nor Bolton—who were sitting right there!—were consulted and of course not Mattis (who wasn’t there). No consultations with S Korea either. Trump just gave in to Kim without consulting or notifying anyone.
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Congrats to
@maxboot
for being a 2019 Pulitzer Prize finalist in Biography for “The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam.” The love story was as compelling as the story of the Vietnam War. I couldn’t put it down.
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10. Trump lied when he said Kim had asked for the 3rd summit and claimed that “Kim wanted to meet him very badly.” Bolton writes: “All of this was nonsense. There was no doubt who wanted to meet badly, and that was the one doing the talking.”
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In
@WSJ
article I argue that Trump’s approach to North Korea has failed because he doesn’t understand Kim’s motivations or goals. This is more evidence. It doesn’t occur to Trump & Jared that Kim’s letters are designed to manipulate him?
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Look who I ran into tailgating at the Super Bowl. Can't wait for the game to start. Go Niners!
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Thrilling to see history made! Why Parasite’s historic
#Oscars
win means so much to Koreans even though it’s hardly a flattering picture of their country. Reupping my
@PostOpinions
article:
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2. Bolton confirms that Trump was desperate to have the summit with Kim at any price because it would be “great theater,” “an exercise in publicity.” There was no detailed preparation, no formal agenda. He was prepared to sign a “substantive free Communique.”
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North Korea is more dangerous than when Trump came to office. Their nuclear and missile arsenal is bigger, more advanced, more sophisticated. Trump didn’t work anything out: He just went from threatening “fire and fury” to saying he was in love with Kim.
#Debates2020
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3. Kim Jong Un asked Trump how he assessed him. Trump said he loved the question and told Kim that he saw him “as really smart, quite secretive, a very good person, totally sincere, with a great personality.”
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Insanely unhealthy is right. He is clinically obese (5’6, weighs about 300lbs) & suffers from heart disease (there’s a family history of cardiac disease). Also a chain smoker & heavy drinker. KJU’s health has always been the X factor in assessing the stability of the regime.
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FBI Director Wray: N Korea represents significant cyber threat. N Korea’s focus is to generate money for the regime. North Korea’s tactics are more sophisticated than people assume.
#AspenSecurity
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THREAD II. More revelations from Bolton’s book about Trump and North Korea.
This is from the chapter on the Hanoi and Panmunjom summits—“Checking into the Hanoi Hilton, Then Checking Out.”
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7. Later on, Bolton notes Trump was “off riffing that he didn’t understand why we had fought the Korean War and why we still had so many troops on the Peninsula, not to mention those war games.”
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Kim is obese, smokes and drinks heavily, and has a family history of heart disease, so no matter what happens now, his health remain a major risk factor for the regime. Trump needs to open a dialogue now with China about what happens after he is gone.
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5. On US-ROK joint military exercises, Trump repeatedly complained about how expensive and provocative they are; he saw them as waste of $. So when Kim said he wanted the US to reduce or eliminate exercises, Trump said he would override the generals and do so.
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So glad to see this. Avril Haines is an outstanding choice for the important but difficult job overseeing the whole intelligence community.
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This is touching & sad at the same time. Barney Greengrass is where our family eats on Sunday mornings. My younger son in particular loved watching Bourdain. RIP.
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This summit would have been unthinkable only two years ago. The primary acclaim must go to the leaders of South Korea and Japan, but the Biden administration also deserves considerable credit for enabling this rapprochement.
@MaxBoot
& I in
@PostOpinions
.
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Some personal news: I've been appointed director of
@TheWilsonCenter
Asia Program. I will continue as director of the Hyundai-KF Center for Korean History and Public Policy. Honored to be contributing to our important work of nonpartisan policy research.
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9. Kim likely agrees with Bolton on this point. Kim probably thinks that Seoul oversold & underdelivered. Now Kim is pressuring Seoul to deliver on the sanctions front. But Bolton makes clear Trump also created exaggerated expectations in Singapore.
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.
@SungYoonLee1
: Hubris & ignorance of history, rather than pragmatism and planning, have driven Washington’s impromptu crisis management reaction to North Korea’s provocations. Don't underestimate & patronize Kim. Take him seriously as a formidable foe.
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The immigrant kids discussion highlights the difference between the two candidates. Biden is showing humanity and empathy. President Trump is blaming 500+ kids separated from their families on “coyotes” and cartels.
#Debates2020
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Congrats to Youn Yuh-Jung of
#Minari
for her win as the best supporting actress
#Oscars2021
. She’s the first Korean actor to win an Oscar. l’ve watched her in many Korean films for decades. I am thrilled she’s introduced to international audiences and her talent is recognized.
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4. When leaving the meeting, Kim said he was “glad that he and Trump had agreed to follow the ‘action for action’ approach” and asked if lifting UN sanctions would be next. Trump said he was open to it and wanted to think about it. So Kim left with optimistic expectations.
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8. On S.Korea, Bolton criticizes Moon for setting an unrealistic expectation with both NK & the US. Bolton writes: “This whole diplomatic fandango was South Korea’s creation.”
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.
@SenatorHeitkamp
: Democracy demands educated populace. Critical to have a population that is resilient and resistant to false information. That is the frontline of defense against Russian “active measures.” At
@Renew_Democracy
conference.
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If only Putin extended similar consideration to children that he's bombing in Syria.
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I am in Tokyo for a day long meeting with the Japanese officials.
@VictorDCha
is right about the need to closely coordinate with our allies. The Japanese are definitely suffering “a case of diplomatic whiplash.” More questions than answers right now.
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Thanks for this. I am trying to be nonpartisan. With an intelligence analyst background, I am just calling it as I see it.
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Chris Ahn is a former Marine who takes care of his ailing mother and blind 97-year-old grandmother.
So why is wearing an ankle monitor and facing extradition to Spain where he could be an easy target for North Korean hit squads?
@MaxBoot
and I explain.
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Particularly in a crisis, USG needs to speak in one voice, not send conflicting and confusing signals.
On risks of misunderstanding/war,
@SueMiTerry
tells
@Maddow
, "We can barely understand American politics, how can we expect
#NorthKorea
to?"
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Agree.
All indications point to an imminent North Korean provocation.
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I brought my son along to my interview tonight.
@AC360
was so friendly, asking about his school. Alex was thrilled!
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This is officially the worst year.
The best spy novelist ever. “The Spy Who Came in From the Cold” was truly a heart-breaking work of staggering genius. And he was only getting started.
RIP.
We are sad to share the news that the great chronicler of our age, John le Carré, has passed away.
Photo credit: Nadav Kander
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Congratulations! One of the few people who is as expert in domestic policy as in foreign policy. A smart, strategic thinker. Can’t imagine anyone better for one of the toughest jobs in the world. You’ll make a great national security adviser.
President-elect Biden taught me what it takes to safeguard our national security at the highest levels of our government. Now, he has asked me to serve as his National Security Advisor. In service, I will do everything in my power to keep our country safe.
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Personal news: I just wrapped up my last conference at
@CSIS
--on South Korea's soft power. I am sad to leave but excited to join
@TheWilsonCenter
where I will be director of the Hyundai Motors-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy.
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Congrats to my
@CSIS
colleague
@kath_hicks
on being nominated to be the highest ranking woman in DOD history. What a perfect choice. She will do an incredible job.
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@Kasparov63
So sorry for your loss, Garry. She must have been a strong and extraordinary woman to raise you amid the adversity of the USSR. You and the family are in our thoughts.
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I’m between two of the most incisive writers about Asia—and two of the most fabulous women.
@BarbaraDemick
’s for a book party in honor of
@annafifield
. Can’t wait to read Anna’s new book about Kim Jong Un, The Great Successor. Congrats Anna! Order it now!
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My new
@ForeignAffairs
article: “Like a long-term marriage, the alliance is likely to survive, but South Korea’s trust in the United States has been so badly shaken that the relationship may never be the same.”
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And just now NKn FM warns that NK has a right to shoot down US strategic bombers. This is what I meant by stumbling into a war nobody wants
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I've been working on this film for a long time (5+ years) as a co-producer. Very excited to have a release date now. The hidden camera footage uncovers as never before the harrowing reality of desperate refugees fleeing North Korea. Please watch the trailer and spread the word.
See a place few have ever seen.
Sundance Film Festival Audience Award winning documentary
#BeyondUtopia
is exclusively in theaters October 23 and 24. Go to for more info.
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Agreed. When I was a grad student at
@FletcherSchool
, I was able to take classes such as Chinese politics with students from Tibet, Taiwan, mainland China, Japan, Korea, etc. We were all enriched by the different perspectives. The learning wouldn’t be the same without them.
DHS restrictions on intl students’ participation in virtual course instruction at universities during our pandemic this fall is reckless, xenophobic, and heartless. Students from around the globe enrich every single campus in the US. Period.
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Congrats to Chloe Zhao, the first woman of color (and only the second woman) to win the Oscar for best director, for making a brilliant movie. What a historic achievement.
#Oscars2021
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Hong Kong’s loss is South Korea’s gain. Xi’s crackdown is giving an opening to one of the most vibrant democracies in East Asia. Seoul is becoming one of the top business destinations in Asia along with Tokyo and Singapore.
When I moved to Asia as a reporter in the 1980s, Hong Kong was free and South Korea was a dictatorship. Now, Korea is free and HK is repressive, so the NY Times is moving its Asia hq to Seoul. So sad to see a great city like Hong Kong tumble backward under Xi Jinping.
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.
@BruceKlingner
& I talked to the N Koreans recently and came back more pessimistic than ever. Here's why.
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Very excited to announce that
@BeyondUtopiaDoc
will be released in more than 600 theaters on Oct 23-24. The film (which I co-produced) takes viewers on a harrowing journey as one family risks everything to escape from North Korea. Watch the trailer:
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It’s low probability but high risk. North Korea is already a proliferation risk. Risk goes way up if nobody is in control. Scenario in which multiple leaders compete for power with no single individual in charge is unlikely but possible. No one knows what will happen if Kim dies.
Interesting that so many analysts are jumping to the "unsecured nuclear weapons" fear in the event of KJU's death. We don't have a good handle on DPRK's command and control if the supreme leader is incapacitated, but is that the same as being worried about the weapon's security?
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All the Korea watchers have been saying this all along but still important to hear it from the horse’s mouth—in case there was any doubt.
KCNA: "When we refer to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, it, therefore, means removing all elements of nuclear threats from the areas of both the north and the south of Korea and also from surrounding areas from where the Korean peninsula is targeted."
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“The rebuilding activities at Sohae demonstrate how quickly North Korea can easily render reversible any steps taken towards scrapping its WMD program with little hesitation. This poses challenges for the U.S. goal of final, irreversible and verifiable denuclearization.”
Satellite imagery acquired by
@BeyondParallel
on March 2, 2019, shows that North Korea is pursuing a rapid rebuilding of the long-range rocket site at Sohae (Tongchang-ri) in the aftermath of the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi.
Read the full report:
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Looking forward to discussing Trump-Kim summit lwith the one and only
@FareedZakaria
10 am/1 pm EST.
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Great piece by
@melissakchan
. As I said, Thae’s election shows N Korean elites that there is an alternative pathway for them that can safeguard their survival. Defectors are not only welcome in S Korea but they can become part of its leadership.
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Great reporting. “Increasingly N.Koreans are fleeing because they are disillusioned. . .Market activity & flow of information leads many to dream in a way they hadn’t before.” We must seek ways to increase funding and means to increase information dissemination into North Korea.
I asked 25 North Koreans what their life was like after Kim Jong Un took over. Here are their stories.
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I admit when I said "very soon," I didn't think in a couple of hours.
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Delighted to join
@UChiPolitics
as a Pritzker Fellow for the spring quarter. I'll be teaching a seminar, “U.S. Intelligence and Policymaking: North Korea and Beyond.” This seminar will explore the major issues in U.S. foreign policymaking with a particular focus on North Korea.
Announcing our Spring Quarter Pritzker Fellows! Can't wait to welcome
@K_JeanPierre
@JohnBKing
@MarkSanford
@Redistrict
@SueMiTerry
@DavidYepsen
@GovernorMarkell
to campus next month
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Moon should know by now it’s impossible to placate the North, the ultimate bully. Kim’s demands will only increase. Bullies prey on those whom they perceive as weaker. Seoul needs to show some backbone. Moon championed human rights in S Korea. He should do the same in N Korea.
South Korea's presidential office said it will strictly control the spread of anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets and material being flown across the border. Expressed "deep regret" that NGO's have continued to do so. Says these actions violate inter-Korean co-operation act.
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As I’ve been saying, this is why steps should be actively taken to come up with a strategy to help the people of North Korea further break the information blockade imposed by the state. Must increase efforts to transmit information into North Korea.
Outside information is seen as a powerful agent for change in North Korean society.
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Congrats to the "20 Days" team! Such a well deserved win and an important statement while Russia continues its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!
"Probably I will be the first director on this stage who will say I wish I never made this film."
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath accept the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature Film for "20 Days in Mariupol."
#Oscars
#Oscars2024
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If Kim takes this historic deal, he would not only have to give up the weapons that ensure his own survival. He would also have to give up the ideological raison d’être for his regime—the rationale that justified decades of suffering by N. Korean people
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Use of VX to kill Kim Jong-nam shows threat isn’t only nukes & missiles. NoKo has up to 5,000 metric tons of chem weapons.
#pbsfrontline
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Since the state ideology deifies the Kims as near-divinities, Kim Yo Jong would enjoy the same hereditary advantage as her brother. Only question is whether the elites would support her and how much power she’d have. Her taking over is still the most likely outcome if Kim dies.
@JohnDelury
Yup: any authority she'd have to become a successor is familial/personal/mythological, not institutional. (cc
@tinssoldier
@JenniferJJacobs
)
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Honored to be rejoining
@cfr_org
in NYC as senior fellow for Korea studies. Thanks to
@mikefroman
,
@JamesMLindsay
&
@shannonkoneil
for the opportunity. Looking forward to joining a talented team, working on issues related to the Korean Peninsula & NE Asia.
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Thanks to
@ForeignAffairs
editor Gideon Rose for interviewing me about my career path. It was a fun interview. Hopefully it will be of interest to younger folks considering a career in intelligence, policy, or the government in general.
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13. It’s hard to argue with Bolton’s conclusion: “For a 4th administration in a row... the US will have failed to stop the world’s most serious nuclear proliferation threat.” But it’s not clear Bolton had a better policy to offer. (He doesn’t repeat his call for preemptive war.)
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This is excessive. While there is much to criticize in America, the election went smoothly (no fraud) and more than 75 mil Americans voted for Biden. There is more to America than Trump. There is still a lot right (as well as wrong) here. Hope our friends abroad recognize that.
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I feel privileged to have seen the Tiafoe-Alcaraz match in person. Nothing like the energy of a US Open crowd especially when two players are putting on such a great show. Tiafoe did himself proud but Alcaraz looks like he’s heading to No 1.
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Agree but
@BeyondCSISKorea
's report shows how far the reality in NK (missiles & nuke program full speed ahead) diverges from the claim that the negotiations have already succeeded. Hidden bases are in line with NK’s practice of camouflage & concealment of all military facilities.
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As I argued in
@ForeignAffairs
, Trump is already straining the alliance by demanding an exorbitant amount of money and insulting S Korea: .
This will be even more of a body blow to an alliance that’s lasted 70+ years.
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This is also a reminder of a longstanding relationship between N. Korea and Syria with N Korea helping with chemical as well as nuclear capacity—which of course means the problem extends far beyond denuclearization.
North Korea announces Syria's Assad wants to visit Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. ‘The optics are horrendous,” says
@SueMiTerry
. Thanks also to
@BruceKlingner
@DavidMaxwell161
Jonathan Pollack
@BrookingsInst
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.
@CSIS
delegation had a great & candid discussion today with President Tsai Ing-wen about the complex security situation in Asia. Personally, it was an honor to meet with Taiwan’s first female President!
@DaveShullman
@iingwen
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South Korea can triangulate between Beijing and Washington. It can be more accommodating to North Korea and and more confrontational to Japan. South Korea is strong enough to follow its own path. It’s not as reliant on the US as in the past.
@Ali_Wyne
@SueMiTerry
I hate to channel my inner Stephen Walt, but what’s Seoul’s alternative?
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The consequences of regime instability in NK are potentially calamitous. Rapid cooperation will be essential—the longer WMDs are unsecured, the larger the risk they will disappear. But China has been reluctant to provoke NK by coordinating plans for its demise with its “enemies.”
If
#KimJongUn
were to die, moment of risk (command & control of nukes, collapse & massive flows across borders) but also opportunity, as could set in motion unification. Essential US, China, S Korea stay in close contact so any crisis is managed and does not spin out of control.
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Not so easy! Trump must convince Kim that he should abandon a nuclear arsenal that keeps his regime safe while a freer, richer, rival state continues to exist in the south. The Vietnamese were magnanimous in victory. Trump is asking Kim to make sacrifices in de facto defeat.
Vietnam is thriving like few places on earth. North Korea would be the same, and very quickly, if it would denuclearize. The potential is AWESOME, a great opportunity, like almost none other in history, for my friend Kim Jong Un. We will know fairly soon - Very Interesting!
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In
@ForeignAffairs
, I argue that North Korea is uniquely unprepared for a medical emergency of this magnitude & while Pyongyang may succeed in keeping the epidemic at bay, the extreme measures it has taken will damage its already fragile economy.
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Fascinating conversation with 3 prominent NK defectors, Ri Jong-ho, Ji Seong-ho & Kang Cheol-hwan about how change in political climate hasn’t matched climate on human rights & what we should do about it. True peace cannot come w/o improving welfare of all Koreans.
@freedomnorth
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Kim Yo Jong is likely to pursue policies roughly similar to her brother at least in the short term— policies of limited economic liberalization, an expansion of WMD, and a diplomatic offensive to gain greater international recognition & a relaxation of sanctions.
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Check out a new PBS documentary on the Korean War & its aftermath, tonight 9-11 pm. Written & produced by John Maggio and narrated by Korean-American actor John Cho, it features
@VictorDCha
, me & other Korea experts.
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Yes both threatening and insulting particularly when we say “so they can eat meat too” and become like South Korea. Trump administration is trying to give positive inducements to the North, but that’s not how N. Koreans are taking these statements.
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A beautiful reflection. RIP.
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.
@AmbJohnBolton
- North Korea has not made a strategic decision to give up WMD. Will do whatever it can to keep them. Kim may make some concessions but will never give them up. Current moratorium on nuke/ICBM testing tells us nothing about North’s intentions.
@CSISKoreaChair
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9. Why did Trump want the DMZ summit? There was no substantive agenda. It was all about the press coverage. Bolton says this shows Trump “couldn’t tell the difference between his personal interests and the country’s interests.”
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.
@SungYoonLee1
: The decision to launch short-range projectiles ... was carefully calibrated. It created the illusion that a more severe crisis had been averted while threatening to bring on one of those next — unless, that is, the US backs down.
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The North Koreans we met with said the North won't deign to negotiate with the South Koreans, whom they described as "puppets" of the U.S.
KCNA: "The real ruler of south Korea is none other than the U.S. who maintains all power there."
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Enjoying the beauty & serenity of Danang beaches. Not so placid in 1965 when first US combat troops landed here.
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Delighted to see
@BeyondUtopiaDoc
named a New York Times Critics Pick and one of the best films of the year (not just documentaries) by the Washington Post. Also gets a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes!
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“pursuit of truth and right ideas through honest debate and rigorous argument is a noble undertaking. I am grateful to have played a small role in the conversations that have helped guide this extraordinary nation’s destiny.”Thank you,
@krauthammer
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From one intractable conflict to another: Visiting Israel and West Bank (these photos are in Ramallah) provides a fascinating perspective to think about the Korean conflict and the prospects for peace talks.
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