Victor Cha
@VictorDCha
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Georgetown / CSIS / former USG official/ author/ NBCNews / NY Giants / Views my own
Washington, DC
Joined November 2009
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My Dad playing golf with Willie Mays at Doral in the 1970s. Happy Father’s Day. Miss talking with you every single day.
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My parents came here after the war. I was born in New York. I’ve served a US president and represented US national security interests in hard-fought negotiations with adversaries. But I am still a victim of racial epithets and told “to go back to your country.”
#StopAsianHate
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I worked with the late PM Abe when I was in govt. He was knowledgeable on every policy issue, firmly pro-alliance, tough on NK, and had a vision for Japan as a proactive supporter and leader of the liberal international order. Very sad day for the world.
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Speechless...compare this with the multilateral response to Ebola, AIDS, financial crisis, SARS...there is no multilateralism. There is not even a national strategy. It’s all states on their own.
G-7 foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement because the U.S. — represented by Mike Pompeo — insisted on calling the coronavirus the “Wuhan virus.”
@John_Hudson
and
@smekhennet
confirm
@derspiegel
scoop
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John McCain and John Lewis will have the last word on the 2020 election. How fitting.
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Just wear it! Doesn’t mean u r a D or R. Doesn’t mean Big Brother. Doesn’t mean u like Donny or Joe. It means you care about your loved ones and your fellow citizens. Nothing more.
#getoverit
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Nk 4th missile test in 13 days. Three summits and no denuke progress...I’d hate to see what a failing policy would look like to
@realDonaldTrump
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Nk agreed to freeze, us-sk xercises, meet with DJT. The question becomes what r we putting on table: sanctions? Normalization? Peace treaty?
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SKs are moving too fast. Trying to box US in. China easing up in sanctions to weaken max pressure alternative. Peace agreement will cause SK and China to rush to fund Nk infrastructure projects. All without real denuke. What could possibly go wrong?
President Moon wants to offer a formal end to the Korean War to DPRK to incentive them to denuclearize. Some in Trump admin strongly oppose such an early "concession," but acknowledge POTUS may accept it
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This is effectively his concession speech. He knows he’s lost.
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FDA just approved a new test that detects COVID-19 in 45 minutes. Great. But why didn’t the US just buy test kits from Korea two months ago?SK has tested almost 300k. The US? Upwards of 60K only.
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My piece for
@NBCNews
@realDonaldTrump
endgame is to denuke NK not by lifting sanctions/promising peace treaty bc its all been done before. He wants to gain Kim’s trust to do a deal. But do insecure dictators trust anyone let alone a cheater like DJT?
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Can't yet confirm any of the speculation about KJU. We do know this: 1) the NK leader has vascular problems; 2) he missed 4/15. All other absences are explainable. Unless we get second and third sources on the story, we're still in the dark, and could be for a while....
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A sign that sanctions are working -
North Korea scales back military exercises, possibly due to fuel shortages
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Holy crap.
It’s happening. Dennis Rodman providing commentary on CNN. BBC has the BBC dad.
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Korea should join the Quad. Worried abt China’s reaction? China will treat Korea with respect as a member of the Quad. Alone, China will treat Korea like a small province
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Some have slammed me for “inflating the threat.” The same fine folks said few yrs ago that NK HEU nuke program was long way off. NK will eventually get to SLBM capability. I prefer to worry about emerging threats to US now rather than after the fact.
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KJU was AWOL at 4/25 military holiday. He missed 4/15 (which is a bigger deal) There are now more than one source on his incapacitation compared with 24 hrs ago. Still, can’t assume anything yet but watch this space...
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Here is the actual report of the undisclosed missile base: It's operational and can launch BMs. You may know about the sites (I notice you used plural), but will they be part of a DPRK declaration?
The story in the New York Times concerning North Korea developing missile bases is inaccurate. We fully know about the sites being discussed, nothing new - and nothing happening out of the normal. Just more Fake News. I will be the first to let you know if things go bad!
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Matt Pottinger would never say that. Totally ridiculous.
NSC Asia director Matthew Pottinger told Korea experts that a limited strike on the North “might help in the midterm elections,” South Korea's (left-wing) Hankyoreh reports
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How can the ROK defend NK’s undisclosed operational missile bases? For the sake of “fake diplomacy”? Just read the UN Security Council resolutions —which ban ALL ballistic missiles from NK. Seriously, how contorted can these rationalizations for NK weapons possession get??
South Korea's Blue House: "North Korea has never promised to shut down this missile base. It has never signed any agreement, any negotiation that makes shutting down missile bases mandatory... There is no agreement, no negotiation that makes it necessary for it to be declared."
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Update: I am honored to serve on the Defense Policy Board for the Biden administration
@SecDef
@DepSecDef
@DOD_Policy
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BREAKING NEWS: New imagery of Sohae Launch facility - it's back to normal operating status with North Korean "snapback" of disassembly after Singapore Summit.
@CSIS
@CSISKoreaChair
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When I started
@georgetownsfs
29 years ago, never imagined that I would become Distinguished University Professor. Humbled and grateful.
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DHS restrictions on intl students’ participation in virtual course instruction at universities during our pandemic this fall is reckless, xenophobic, and heartless. Students from around the globe enrich every single campus in the US. Period.
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What the Russia-North Korea pact means: 1) renewal of Cold War-era security guarantees that were rendered defunct in 1990 when South Korea and Russia normalized relations 2) military cooperation will escalate including munitions and ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine and
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New book out! Korea: A New History. Yale Press your truly and
@rpachecopardo
@CSIS
@CSISKoreaChair
@asianstudiesgu
@georgetownsfs
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Really bad. NK announces rocket engine test &
@realdonaldtrump
cancels UN Sec Council discussion of Nk human rights abuses. Does this smell like a successful policy? (Bad) deal before Xmas?
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Guessing @ the playbook:1)meet KJU;2)offer peace treaty (wht happens to US troops? -has implics for US strat/Asia); 3)get KJU to commit to denuke;4)use NK Leader's words in ensuing negots in fast timeline for denuke; 5)if it fails? The only thing after a summit is a cliff...
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@realDonaldTrump
crossed into North Korea this morning EST. It’s only “historic” if it leads to denuke negotiations, a verifiable agreement and a peace treaty. Otherwise it’s just some nice pics and pageantry.
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This
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Every politician complicit by silence or by voice w/ this enterprise of falsehoods engineered by
@realDonaldTrump
to undermine a peaceful transfer of power is responsible for today.Calling for “law and order” now doesn’t excuse you. You will be remembered in history for this.
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I’m not against diplomacy but this is Reality TV.
#fakediplomacy
that gives US, SK, NK trivial domestic kudos while legitimizing the hr abusing/nuke regime. Does
@moonriver365
think photo opps will aid denuke?
@realDonaldTrump
doesn’t know any better but
@moonriver365
should.
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Korea has a 10-minute diagnostic kit. They are to export 300,000 per week. We haven’t tested that many people in 3 months. Korea/US diagnosed their first case of COVID-19 within 24 hrs of each other. This isn’t supposed to happen in/to the US.
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Driving I-95 to NY during thanksgiving🦃 is like navigating NK policy- every pathway sucks
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This is our
@beyondcsiskorea
@csis
imagery from TODAY of activity at Sinpo that suggests North Korea preparations for an SLBM launch. Would be hard for
@realDonaldTrump
to dismiss this as"no biggie, every country does them." May be the "new strategic weapon"
#KimJongUn
promised.
SNAPSHOT: A 9/4 satellite image of Sinpo acquired by
@BeyondCSISKorea
shows activity suggestive of preparations for an upcoming test of a Pukguksong-3 SLBM from the submersible test stand barge based here. New analysis by Joe Bermudez and
@VictorDCha
:
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Just sayin….
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It’s such a beautiful day in Washington DC 🌞. Goodness has returned.
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Nationally, the study of French & German at universities declined 36%. Study of Japanese & Chinese - up by 8000%. Study of Korean is up by 53,000%!
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North Korea's Medium-Range Missiles via
@YouTube
check out satellite imagery of ballistic missile threats to US security
@realDonaldTrump
is deliberately ignoring in his bromance with Kim of North Korea.
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John Kelly needs to speak up now.
@realDonaldTrump
wanted all generals in his cabinet. Now they must defend against his using the US military against the people. Autocracies do that. Not the United States. That’s what makes us the
#CityontheHill
.
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My take on the detainee release/return tonight:1)good 4 dip momentum;2)watch 4 test site closing next; 3)still no clarity on denuke pledge; 4)time now for quiet pre-negots, not loud tweets
@JChengWSJ
@annafifield
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When
@realDonaldTrump
says the only
#DPRK
missile tests that matter are ICBMs, we are decoupling. Yet allies SK and GOJ agree. What kind of alliance arithmetic is that?🤦🏼♂️ Weaken long-term alliances for short-term/uncertain tactical diplomacy step with KJU? China loves it, yup.
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“If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.”
Everyone please listen to this 75 second clip from Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director at WHO: "Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover. The virus will always get you if you don't move quickly."
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A warm welcome to
@VictorDCha
, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair for
@CSIS
and professor at
@georgetownsfs
, who is now a contributor for
@NBCNews
and
@MSNBC
.
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That is a serious burger...
I was honored to welcome Prime Minister Suga to the White House today as we usher in a new era of friendship between the U.S. and Japan. Both Pacific nations, we are also united by our shared commitment to the universal values of freedom, democracy, and human rights.
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Announcement: Honored and humbled to be awarded the
@APSAtweets
2023 Hubert H. Humphrey award for notable public service by a political scientist. following in the
@georgetownsfs
of scholarship and service. Great to see that my friend
@aramhur
has won the
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Trump takes credit for things that haven’t happened. State refers to NK commitments on denuke that aren’t mentioned in inter-K summit. KJU promises denuke things that have already happened. Moon credits KJU denuke steps as new...yep it all makes sense...🍾
@CSIS
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Why Nk wants peace treaty: 1.face-to-face standing w/ US2.Minimize threat of US attack3.lift sanctions & access to WB, IMF, etc for $ for development (unless China gets there first w/AIIB).All while keeping some nukes/missiles. If these moves fall into place: Checkmate 4 China/NK
WATCH:
@VictorDCha
joins the
#MTP
panel and explains "uncertainty" around the North Korea summit
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This is a train wreck in slow motion...
The US-ROK military cost sharing talks were cut short. Supposed to last until 5pm but only made it until lunchtime.
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1/20/20: Korea and US both see first confirmed covid cases. By 3/5/20, Sk created hundreds of drive-thru tests for highest # of citizens per capita; & nationalized mask distribution.
@realDonaldTrump
on 3/5? He boasted that US had only 129 cases bc he closed our borders.
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Plane back frm SF full of college students coming home. All quite sad. My heart goes out to seniors robbed of their last quarter/semester. Met
@georgetownsfs
students returning to DC to execute move-out while ALSO adjusting to online classes. Let’s give the kids a break ths week.
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WEEKEND BREAKING NEWS - March 8 images show MORE activity at Sohae consistent with test/launch preparations: CONCEALMENT of pad & test stand; covered rail transports moved adjacent to facilities.
@CSIS
@CSISKoreaChair
@NBCNews
@MSNBC
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Kishida’s statement could be read as positive (“heartfelt”) or negative “Nothing new”). Take your pick. Folks can make the best or worst of it as they will. Given the imperative of Japan-Korea cooperation in the face of the Europe war, supply chain resilience, China-Taiwan, and
Kishida stopped short of offering a fresh apology like any Koreans wanted, but he made a rare personal statement on colonial times:
“My heart aches by the fact that many people suffered and felt sadness under the harsh environment of the time."
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US-Japan-Korea trilateral institutions to emerge from
#SpiritofCampDavidTrilateral
1) leaders summit, 2) FM trilat, 3) Def Min trilat, 4) NSA trilat, 5) eco security trilat. All of these Cabinet-level dialogues creat action-forcing events that create trilateral deliverables
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What Will Trump Give Up for Peace with North Korea?
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OMG
After some very important meetings, including my meeting with President Xi of China, I will be leaving Japan for South Korea (with President Moon). While there, if Chairman Kim of North Korea sees this, I would meet him at the Border/DMZ just to shake his hand and say Hello(?)!
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It’s a beautiful day in Washington DC! The sun is out and America is back.
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Warts and all, the
#SingaporeSummit
is better than war (which is admittedly a low bar), but now they have to put meat on these very flimsy bones - before the August scheduled mil exercise.
@nytopinion
@georgetownsfs
@CSIS
@MSNBC
@NBCNightlyNews
@LesterHoltNBC
@mitchellreports
"Trump and Kim Have Just Walked Us Back From the Brink of War": Op-ed by
@VictorDCha
on
@nytimes
on the
#SingaporeSummit
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Wish I could be more optimistic. Happy to be found wrong. We will know in 4 hours.
#hopeful
#SingaporeSummit
@LesterHoltNBC
@NBCNews
@maddow
@mitchellreports
"There are no fairy tale endings when it comes to North Korea."
@LesterHoltNBC
asks
@VictorDCha
whether Kim Jong Un is really willing to relinquish nuclear weapons.
More tonight on
@NBCNightlyNews
as Lester broadcasts live from Singapore ahead of the Trump-Kim summit.
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Interesting points in
#SpiritofCampDavidTrilateral
: 1) SK accepts Japan abductees issues as part of human rights concerns on NK 2) trilateral commitment to counter Chinese disinformation - opens opportunities to work together in Pac Isles and global south 3) trilateral commitment
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In the green room for a long night with
@wendyrsherman
and
@SueMiTerry
covering Hanoi from 30 Rock for
@NBCNews
@MSNBC
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Limited Strikes on North Korea Are Past Due | U.S. Naval Institute
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Pre-summitry SK/US govts saying: 1)NK ready to give up nukes;2) no conditions; 3)no demand to remove US troops.... NO WORD from NK on any of this. Spinning too hard? Boxing in NK? (won't work) Inflated expectations R worst thing for NS and US-NK summit
#HeightenedExpectations
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Putin-Kim summit just theatrics and toasts? Don't think so. Fresh new
@CSIS
@CSISKoreaChair
@BeyondCSISKorea
imagery yesterday of the RR border between DPRK and Russia shows the highest level of railcar traffic we have ever recorded pre- or post-pandemic. Don't think this is just
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With deep gratitude and appreciation of my colleagues
@georgetownsfs
@asianstudiesgu
@joelhellman_SFS
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Kim Jong un does the same thing 😀
In one news conference during his "hottest show in town" trip to Asia, Donald Trump used the word “best” nine times, “incredible” 16 times, “tremendous” 28 times and “great” or “greatest” 50 times, according to the superlative
@peterbakernyt
”
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@realDonaldTrump
tweets North Korean human rights abuser Kim Jong un to meet him at DMZ this weekend. Theatrics are no substitute for denuclearization. Nothing has happened since Singapore.
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1. Summit is an outright failure 2. But trump made the right decision to push for more than minimal steps and take no deal over a bad deal. 3. However, not clear where it goes from here when leaders can’t agree 4. No summit for a while.
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The arms trade works both ways -- a million rounds of ammunition for Russia in exchange for military technology for DPRK? This arrangement will continue for as long as there is a war in Ukraine. We may see manifestations of this military technology cooperation too late to do
Recent satellite image of Dunay, Russia show approximately 400 shipping containers— a significant increase—at the port previously identified by the White House as being involved in arms transfer from DPRK to Russia.
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Problematic: NK helped with nuke reactor, & rltnshp with Syria goes back to support during 73 Arab-Israeli war. Maddening: US will get NK to call off this Syria meeting and NK will play like it’s a big concession deserving of US reward.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is planning a trip to Pyongyang to meet Kim Jong Un, N. Korea's state media says. Our piece:
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Waiting to join
@hodakotb
@SavannahGuthrie
@TODAYshow
(with one hour of sleep) to talk
#SingaporeSummit
@georgetownsfs
@CSIS
photo courtesy Jeremy Bash
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So if Trump meets Kim at DMZ -> good photo op but no substance-> legitimizes human rights abuser/serial proliferator. If kim no show-> deflated expectations of renewal post-Hanoi diplomacy and worse off. Can u imagine staffing this circus as NSC?
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Post-postponed Singapore summit,which path next?1)Nk raise stakes w/resumption of missile testing👎2)Pompeo channel continues to set table for future summit👥3)Sks decouple from US and forge inter-Korean piece😥4)NKs consolidate ties with China🤮5)DJT changes mind again?🤷🏼♂️
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READ this piece. It is excellent.
#MeToo
movement ROCKING South Korea
@SueMiTerry
@CSIS
@annafifield
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The Nk summit is dead. Long live the NK summit....
We are having very productive talks with North Korea about reinstating the Summit which, if it does happen, will likely remain in Singapore on the same date, June 12th., and, if necessary, will be extended beyond that date.
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Trump and Kim Have Just Walked Us Back From the Brink of War
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Text of the Russia-North Korea security agreement has been released. It states that if either are "put in a state of war..." then the other will "provide military and other assistance with all means...without delay..." 1) this is a full-fledged military alliance circa Cold War;
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Are the North Koreans about to unveil a ballistic missile sub?
@realDonaldTrump
is our policy working?
📺 Watch the
@csis
video covering our latest
@BeyondCSISKorea
report “Sinpo Update,” suggesting a significant concealment activity after Pukguksong Launch. You can also read the original report here:
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I agree!! 😂
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My wife went to the BTS concert with her girlfriends at MetLife last nit and she didn’t bring me back a t-shirt. 🙁
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If you were unclear about a quote taken from me, then the collegial thing to do would have been to email me for clarification before publishing a piece attacking me.
@VictorDCha
Looking away we are not.
#NorthKorea
's test of
#SLBMs
are very real--and documented. What you were trying to say, and thanks for clarifying, is you meant the first test of an SLBM from a submarine and not a barge at sea or something else.
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Longest range, solid fuel nuke capable missile shot yet but
@realDonaldTrump
doesn’t care. He wants a fake deal and fake peace with NK by Xmas. And when Sk doesn’t pay $5bn for cost of US troops in K he will pull them out.
#USdecoupling
(2nd LD) N. Korea says it successfully test-fired new-type SLBM
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Here is our
@CSIS
timeline of South Korea’s response to Covid-19. Bottom line: Only SIX days to launch a massive, public-private sector effort. EARLY, FAST, ORGANIZED, NATIONAL -> flattens the curve.
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Lipstick/pig. If you really cared you would have asked KJU to express regrets or at least seek out an explanation of what happened to poor Otto. Not a heavy lift and would have checked human rights box.
#beprepared
I never like being misinterpreted, but especially when it comes to Otto Warmbier and his great family. Remember, I got Otto out along with three others. The previous Administration did nothing, and he was taken on their watch. Of course I hold North Korea responsible....
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First time I’ve seen ALL CAPS and exclamation points in a SBTP. What’s next? Emojis?
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If
@moonriver365
won’t condemn Putin, impose targeted sanctions (not only signing on to broad multilateral),and stand against an unprovoked war against a fellow democracy then do they not remember when the free world came to Korea’s defense against an attack in 1950?.
#NoHedging
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China’s new province...
On the front page of N. Korea's main newspaper today: A pretty striking image of Kim Jong Un framed by a Chinese flag and a Star Alliance logo.
h/t
@rpcward89
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A major scholar, caring teacher, skilled diplomat, devoted public servant,
@madeleine
will be dearly missed.The embodiment of
@georgetownsfs
. I will treasure our last interaction - a day of meetings at DoD that she made fly by with her wit, charm, wisdom.
#GURemembersSecAlbright
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Bolton book on Korea:1)Trump only interested in media hype of Singapore summit, not substance;2)didn't know why US fought Korean war;3) said US-SK mil exercises "expensive"; 4)agreed to suspend them w/o consulting NSA/SecDef. See
@CSIS
interview of Bolton
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No. 1 one on Amazon books on Korean history (b/c of the hot cover!!) Pre-order yours now!
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The South Korean government announcement of its intention not to renew the General Security of Military Information Agreement benefits who? China, NK, & Russia
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Have to negotiate *existing* capabilities. Not just past or future ones. You can’t “wing” the next summit.
#itscomplicated
NEW from
@BeyondCSISKorea
: Located 212 kilometers north of the DMZ, Sino-ri (신오리) is an operational missile base that houses a regiment-sized unit equipped with Nodong-1/-2 medium-range ballistic missiles.
Read the report:
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