Shaidy Advice
@ShaidyAdvice
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Gamer, Nerd. What more could you want?! Well fine, a stream?
Joined September 2012
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I’m not normally a screenshot person but your first solo million is a special occasion. Thank you to
@SaberSim
for the tools and community and a special shoutout to
@whistlesWooo
for getting me into this hobby.
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Got to check “Win a DFS live final” off of my bucket list this weekend in Chicago. Thank you to all of you who congratulated me and as always to
@SaberSim
and the great team working on their DFS product.
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Whether or not you agree with the ghost change to forcing autopilot in fast best ball drafts that
@UnderdogFantasy
made last night, it's not okay for them to be gaslighting users who report a change to the product. Email and chat just repeatedly insist that there was no change.
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I was working on a graphic yesterday to try and show a more realistic perspective of what DFS is like most slates. I'm still going to post that but first I'll make the discourse worse. 100k NBA tier win for the
@SaberSim
Winner's Circle:
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If
@draftkings
is really making this change to the crown accrual bonus to give users choice rather than save costs when users forget or claim sub-optimally, than they would automatically apply any unclaimed days at the end of the month to the days with the highest crown accrual.
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I am very much of the opinion that making this kind of unannounced change 24-36 hours before your flagship contest closes is extremely irresponsible. Digging your heels in like this is insane...
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As I mentioned, I think the focus on winning DFS screenshots is unhealthy. Being a successful DFS player is much more about surviving loses than it is sweating big wins. This is a histogram of my ROI in each slate since Sep '21 (lots of red).
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It's been a slow bleed the last several weeks but patience pays off with this season's 10k NBA tier win for the
@SaberSim
Winners circle. Oh and two in one night in different slates😉. 100k here we come?
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Oh look, DK has started pushing their unplayable payout structures from the low stakes into mid stakes. Fun!
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If paywalled publicly available post-lock contest sims can’t kill the player ownership takes we are a long way from worrying about pre-lock sims killing DFS.
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So, last night I luckboxed into 12 tickets for the Mega Milli on DK tonight (sorry if you were in those Sats). I'll be in for 14 bullets instead of the 3 I had planned and if I have the energy I'll try and stream some of the sweat. GLHF!
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While yesterday was not a great day for NFL classics, Showdowns more than made up for it. Including my first entry into
@SaberSim
's 10k tier of winner's circle:
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Contest sims & changing sub models are the talk of the town and wait until you hear what we have for you at ShaidyStats. Sick of paying for projections of every player? Kept up paying money to know that TightyMcEnderson is going to score 0.2 FPTS? We’ve got a solution for you!🧵
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@BrianHooper__
This issue also gets exacerbated by player's tendencies to talk about these kinds of decisions at the portfolio exposure level rather than where they matter, at the individual roster level.
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I'll be humming this all day:
A-swapping we will go,
A-swapping we will go
Heigh-ho, the derry-o,
A-swapping we will go.
A-swapping we will go,
A-swapping we will go
We'll catch a bink but still make a stink
hope they revert this shit show.
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Can
@UnderdogFantasy
stop pretending that they didn’t fuck up by double raking their live final and post some quals that don’t require rake-back gymnastics to get even close to industry standard?
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@Paydirt_DFS
This is only true in the sense that the "vast majority" of DFS players are losing players. If you are a losing player this is good because you are likely to lose less long term but if you are a current winning player this is unequivocally bad.
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Everyone loves a chopped pot
@SaberSim
. At least this one was good enough for a spot in the NBA winner's circle:
Now if I could just get other people to stop picking the same lines as me...
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I’m hearing that this was posted in error by DK and will be taken down. Good reminder to do your diligence and raise a flag if you’re uncomfortable with a contest structure. Worst case your feedback is heard, best case is you get a better contest.
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Well, the day has finally come. Goodbye $3 and under contests on DraftKings 👋
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@tomjk321
I think some of the PR chatter comes from the cognitive dissonance of a being told that people were let go without waiving non-compete clauses at the same time a revolutionary new revenue stream was released.
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@rynpak
Doesn’t seem unreasonable given the volume in your cup was likely filled with something that costs more than ice.
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If you are perpetually flabbergasted by the wisdom of the crowd in might be worth taking a moment to pause and assessing how wise you might be.
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@tomjk321
In times of growth, skilled leaders find ways to leverage skilled people. In times of contraction people are more sympathetic to workforce reduction moves.
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I didn't even notice that by Twitter standards that DM didn't get sent behind offensive content Show/Hide. Their language models must be almost as good as DK's collusion detection ones.
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This gives the user the option to get crowns earlier if they want but shifts the onus from the user to remember and optimize this new gimmick.
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@SaberSim
Second winners circle entry, first in NFL, and just about the only slate that even slightly went my way this weekend!
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@peteroverzet
Well well well, I'm glad I watched until the end. I'd been struggling to decide what I should hang up behind me with bungee cords to get motivated in my drafts. Thank you
@peteroverzet
and
@pantherraonca
for solving what will go up on that dartboard and for an entertaining show.
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@d0wnsideofme
There was a dearth of good mid stakes contests to MME, but the narrative that you need to max enter a contest to be profitable in it is far more harmful than the lack of options to reduce your variance was.
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@blenderhd
@BrianHooper__
Unless they are playing a very condensed exposure strategy such that they are frequently scooping first from themselves in second then you aren’t going notice a real EV change even going from the 3% cap down to 1% or whatever.
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@DfsSchoder
@playerqDFS
Worse than this there’s no way to know which opponent lineups in the contest were real and which are voided when optimizing later swaps. If this isn’t a full loss refunded slate
@DK_Assist
has really screwed up.
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@ToeTagginTambo
@SaberSim
@whistlesWooo
I actually looked this up for someone earlier today and that was indeed the 2 player swap. I couldn’t tell you why as it’s all done automatically by my lateswap process but your logic sounded reasonable for why it might have gone there after knowing how the early games went.
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@blenderhd
@playerqDFS
I’m not much of a cash player but I agree that you shouldn’t be avoiding duplicates. However, watching the recent podcast on duplication I couldn’t come to the conclusion that given equal lineups you’re better off playing the more duplicated lineup.
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@tomjk321
Perhaps it’s the fact that despite releasing a “revolutionary” product the community is disappointed that the team was unable to find a way to continue to leverage the team that got you here?
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@blenderhd
Got it, for those curious here's the same thought experiment for a 6 player contest with A unique, B one other player, and C 4 others, showing the + ROI from choosing lineup C if 4/6 get 1 unit of payout.
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This time I made sure this contest wasn’t a mistake when it was posted last Saturday and it’s back again to haunt the lobby. An 8x$66 that’s $1500 to first and is rewarding 23% of the field… recommencing unplayable structures disappointment face.
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@day9tv
The bots on this site are so bizarre.
Lately, whenever I like/reply to a tweet, a bot shows up a day later and tweets the IDENTICAL message to me.
Like, what is the goal here? Anyone else had this interaction? Anyone else had some AMUSING bot interactions?
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This individual’s only Twitter interactions appear to be calling DFS players “cocksucker” with some other insult thrown in for good measure.
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Don't ask why I was thinking about this but I'm pretty confident that a watched pot actually boils slightly faster if you assume the alternative is that you aren't in the room with it due to the fact you are likely a higher temp radiative body compared to the room w/o you. 🤔
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This an example where you can choose from 3 equal lineups in a 10 player 50/50, A is unique, B has one other player playing it and C is the other 8 entries in the contest. All 3 options seem to have the same EV. What am I missing?
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@kyletweetshere
Hmmm how’d they get in there? Time to have a look at what broke in ye old late swap code I guess…
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Introducing pay as you go plans. Pay per player per slate. Yes you heard that right, at ShaidyStats you only pay for the players you actually want the projections for. No more regretting that full subscription. Just the players you want when you want them at the price you want.
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@DfsSchoder
@AwesemoDFS
@gehrenbergdfs
@BigT44DFS
But that’s where the field will go. The sneaky play is Randone at 7100.
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@BrianHooper__
@Matt_SaberSim
@TheRealRikkiDee
@DfsSchoder
It depends on what the goal of your analysis is. If it's to estimate the proportion of 150ers that are profitable then using any prior that you know has overfitting is going to condense EV in a way that significantly underestimates the actual count of profitable 150ers.
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@playerqDFS
As an aside: I wonder how different the strategy that minimizes the probability of losing is from the one that minimizes the number of expected guesses.
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But wait there’s more! Pay per contest sim. Confident in your lineups? Only want 1 contest sim? We’re the site for you! Use Promo code: NickelAndDime for 10% off your next player or sim.
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@NelsonAdcock
@playerqDFS
I'm probably 80% sure the math is right for a 10 entry 50/50 contest where you have the choice of 3 equal lineups and know a priori that there are 0 copies of A, one copy of B and 8 copies of C already in the contest. Always happy to learn when I'm off though.
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@d0wnsideofme
@Matt_SaberSim
Shit, did I miss the fine print again where DK and FD won’t pay you out if you’re not posting screenshots? I feel like I miss something like this every year…
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@playerqDFS
The box of said luck was quite large... had two going into last night and decided to try for a 3rd.
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@d0wnsideofme
Well no, combinations of players can be very minus EV or very plus EV. Individual player takes are great for engagement, they’re not great for making good dfs choices.
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@playerqDFS
Clearly should have spent the week studying optimal Wordle strategies and not wasting it on silly sports games.
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@d0wnsideofme
Given all of the research out there that shows how much people underestimate risk this is has to be wrong. You're just making a survivorship biased measurement of the people who got lucky taking those risks.
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@discord
Nothing like having to go through my 30 servers and toggle “suppress highlights” in every single one because you think I didn’t wanted that opt out by default.
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Well shit, let’s see if we can move some meetings.
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@metro_goomin
@UnderdogFantasy
I’m not sure if there was a written rule that wasn’t enforced but as someone who has done over a thousand fast drafts on underdog this summer this app behavior certainly wasn’t in place until last night and they have already acknowledged that as fact since posting this.
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@kyletweetshere
I assume they are just A/B testing contest fill rates for NBA on football days if they only include games before football starts.
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@nerdytenor
@whistlesWooo
and I will both be making ours available as well but unfortunately for the rest of you we’ll be asking Google’s Bard to refactor it for us first. Good luck!
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@BrianHooper__
@TheRealRikkiDee
@DfsSchoder
It varies a bit slate to slate based on how much herding has happened but
@TheRealRikkiDee
’s take is consistent with my own post contest sims. I get reasonably close the stok results using their projections as a prior but very different ordering with other inputs.
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@d0wnsideofme
I can always count on you to introduce me to a whole new segment of humanity for me to be disappointed in.
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@AwesemoDFS
I tried playing the best play once but after seeing it
@whistlesWooo
played a brown note and I’ve stuck to the second best plays ever since.
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@blenderhd
I’m now far more invested than I should be in the battle of top 100% vs bottom 100%.
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@playerqDFS
@whistlesWooo
David, is it possible to ever put too much salt on a stake before grilling?
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@DavidMoor28
I'm reasonably certain they still offer a free trial for you to figure out what you like and get more opinions as to which plan is right for you from the Discord. The main reason I originally went with SS was that they have all of their historical projections still in the app.
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@d0wnsideofme
I may have honed in too much on the "fundamentally incorrect" zinger at the end.
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You know better than to equate exposure choices with lineup $EV choices.
petteytheft 0% in the $555 so I have no reason to believe this take is incorrect
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@playerqDFS
I choose randomly from my top N lineups for small contests and got lucky in that two of my top lines that weren't very correlated were good enough to win and they also happened to get chosen over the options that would have whiffed.
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@vegasgolfanatic
That’s on me for assuming what “contest will be removed” meant when I first read it.
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@playerqDFS
Oh I'm very set up for the story arc where I rolled high on the EV table for the qualifiers just to completely torch it off by not even min cashing one line.
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@whistlesWooo
Wait, you're telling me that all I have to do is make some picks for the 3M and not only do I get a shot at some money but I also get a peak at your ownership targets? 💸💸💸
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The tank with the ability to copy one of the bosses spells can copy the stun from the (
@YouTube
http://t.co/yu2mnPhX)
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@d0wnsideofme
You’re going from a 15% to 15.9% rake so it depends on how you adjust your risk profile from 150 to 30.
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@PA_Megacorp
Support politician gamers!
http://t.co/6IyiBO5l
Regardless of your political beliefs it's not ok to see our hobbies attacked.
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@Sports__Proj
@ShipMyMoneyDFS
Unless you’re a DKNG holder, why is the focus on making them the most money rather than on what allows a skill based ecosystem to survive as long as possible? Given the edges they were willing to peel off of NBA when it was struggling this year I’m not sure they need the help.
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@whistlesWooo
I'm surprised you had a spare hand to take a photo. Where have you duct taped the other one?
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@d0wnsideofme
I tend to use the "royal" you in public forums. I don't know enough about you to know if you're specifically making that observation bias, but I suspect that most who read that tweet are.
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@d0wnsideofme
If you happen to have a really good risk model then you're actually making extremely well informed risk-calibrated decisions, even if an individual one might be high variance.
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@DfsSchoder
@playerqDFS
@DK_Assist
This just confirms the strong suspicion that they clearly didn’t understand the decision science of allowing late swap in MMA in the first place. Ignoring the impact of not knowing which of your opponents or even your lines are still live is just the icing.
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