Semper Vigilantes
@SemperVigilant1
Followers
3,967
Following
3,150
Media
6,443
Statuses
26,108
Precious Metals, Banks, Commercial Real Estate, Economics, Data Science, Food. Not Financial Advice
Joined December 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
برشلونة
• 789514 Tweets
John Kelly
• 299216 Tweets
Trump is Hitler
• 295711 Tweets
Bayern
• 291037 Tweets
Barcelona
• 255455 Tweets
Raphinha
• 213616 Tweets
Peñarol
• 78770 Tweets
Megan
• 77206 Tweets
Lamine
• 58948 Tweets
Casado
• 58818 Tweets
Pedri
• 50127 Tweets
Hansi Flick
• 36668 Tweets
Lewandowski
• 35803 Tweets
Fermin
• 35475 Tweets
Lille
• 33671 Tweets
Haaland
• 31060 Tweets
Neuer
• 27214 Tweets
$TSLA
• 26233 Tweets
Hatch Act
• 23943 Tweets
Nunez
• 22890 Tweets
Brest
• 22034 Tweets
Kompany
• 20147 Tweets
#ChampionsLeague
• 19878 Tweets
Xavi
• 19076 Tweets
Muller
• 17013 Tweets
Atleti
• 16694 Tweets
رافينها
• 16018 Tweets
Harry Kane
• 15279 Tweets
البايرن
• 15248 Tweets
Benfica
• 15246 Tweets
#FCBFCB
• 12972 Tweets
Feyenoord
• 12574 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Ponies - Ranking Update
This system is about trying to find alpha magnified by volume from the past, and adjusting it for beta.
Here is how I calculate the ranking system:
1) Calculate daily returns for past 5 years
2) Calculate benchmark returns (Silver)
3) Calculate Alpha
3
5
38
Might I call your attention to some finer details that may have been missed in the
#Silver
futures contract as price movements took center stage these past few days.
Yesterday the inactive JUNE contract, with ~7 days until first notice, closed with Open Interest of 1,909
HSBC continues shorting the May silver contract which incriminates them as the desperate short on the bizarre June contract.
Volume 5 times typical, shenanigans 100 times typical:
21
81
328
13
29
178
The Issues and Stops for June Silver is Out!
And boy is it a doozy....
A) It looks like it was scanned five times over before being uploaded. I have never seen the scan quality this bad.
B) Usual suspects delivered metal...HSBC and JPM (and Wells Fargo)
C) How many times
Normally an obscure contract in past years, June
#Silver
has showed signs of pressure the likes of which I have never witnessed.
This contract in past years would have had ~200 contracts average daily volume in the days leading up to First Notice Day.
This year, we saw
3
12
77
10
27
145
Are we including shrinkflation in this analysis? Something tells me there were more Snuggle dryer sheets in the package back then. Same goes for a few other items on this list.
Kevin's Home Alone grocery bill increased 177% since 1990. It was a mix of food and housekeeping supplies.
Since that time, official food CPI increased by 151%, and housekeeping supplies CPI increased by 88%.
So for this particular sample, CPI notably understated inflation.
106
330
2K
8
10
131
@PetitRetard
One time, before blocking me, they posted about swapping out a toilet in one of their units.
You could tell it was a big deal.
5
0
127
And there it is!!!
You go to sleep with a report showing 3,010 in Open Interest. You wake up...and it is mysteriously down to 1,720.
No explanation in the data provided...
Where is the compensating EFP?
How is this even possible?
#Silver
#Silversqueeze
Waiting two hours past normal...finally preliminary results have emerged!
15 million ounces now at the ready.
A threat of delivery has occurred.
Up from 10 million ounces just yesterday.
Questions of why more of today's volume did not filter through to Open Interest
5
6
69
16
25
116
HSBC....
1) Announces intention to leave Comex (see link)
2) Proceeds to dump silver like crazy on Comex last 4 months...number one issuer of warrants by far.
3) Silver shows up in a Euro ETC in which they are custodian.
@Sorenthek
@SRSroccoReport
MASSIVE SURGE IN EUROPEAN SILVER ETF INVENTORIES: Who’s The Big European Silver Investor??
Something very interesting is taking place in the Silver Market.
VIDEO:
12
23
128
14
39
119
Such BS.
I was just offered 100,000 oz of gold 250 million dollars at a 300 dollar /oz discount to spot. Interesting!
I will stick to my BITCOIN!
263
61
1K
25
2
115
Basket of Goods used for CPI next year:
1) pig slop
2) oxygen
3) Boeing airplane parts
12
15
112
There it is...Swaps breached 70K short position.
As ordained in the Ballad Of Honest Money
They didn't cover squat last Friday. They just shorted into it even harder.
And why not? If you are the more capitalized party a future margin raise is certain to make your less
16
17
99
Bitcoin miners pay $106K to produce a bitcoin and sell them for $65K.
Gold miners pay $1200 to produce a gold coin and sell them for $2300.
#Gold
#Bitcoin
#Mining
Average Bitcoin Mining Cost Increases to $106K
Is this just a temporary Higher Cost Spike, or will it be more permanent?
Regardless... Bitcoin Mining Industry will continue to DESTROY Shareholder value to replace Bitcoin Miners that suffer 90% Depreciation by Year 2.
12
9
59
17
24
97
Take a look at
#gold
compared to a gold miner in this format. (They all look similar)
It's like the market still has zero faith the rally in gold is going to survive. The algos were not programmed for an environment where gold and real rates diverge.
$GDX $GLD $KGC
10
16
94
#Silver
Exploring the Commitment of Traders Report
Part 5 - When Managed Money Gets Short
@profitsplusid
pointed out today that Managed Money is now net short, and this has been an indicator of price bottoms in recent years. You better believe I need to dig dipper on
1
14
96
@ClaireFosterPHD
@EndWokeness
It’s theft. Doesn’t matter the comparison to others actions. Theft is theft.
2
1
85
$838 million Net Income.
"I wanted a Billion!!!"
$NEM
12
2
86
8
6
86
Dear Shanghai Futures Traders,
Comex is closed for a holiday this week.
Full Send Please.
8
5
82
@PetitRetard
Wait...never heard of this company before today. Were any of these other people that are giving reviews on the landing page also involved in the equity structure?
5
1
78
3
18
76
Normally an obscure contract in past years, June
#Silver
has showed signs of pressure the likes of which I have never witnessed.
This contract in past years would have had ~200 contracts average daily volume in the days leading up to First Notice Day.
This year, we saw
Final Report in.
Recap as we head closer to the big show...AKA First Notice day:
Last night...no preliminary report
Prior two nights...preliminary reports with big OI increases that get adjusted down in morning, reducing OI, with no compensating EFP or other explanation as to
2
4
22
3
12
77
#Silver
Junior Miners
Part 1 - Betas and Alphas
These miners have been heart breaking stocks. This study is intended to show how I am positioning myself for future upside with these dirty dogs.
(Tagging
@DonDurrett
because the stocks in this study closely align with some of
15
12
72
@dtmorgan18
@Austen
Is this true for other movies? I built up a big collection in Prime Video.
17
0
74
ZONE C UPDATE
#Silver
Take a look at the Swap Short activity this year.
Below I highlight the start of the year with blue dots, and yellow dots after that (see dates in legend).
We started the year with ~134K in open interest. Swaps' short was at ~40K or 29% of OI.
Now it is
#Silver
CoT Data - UPDATE
Back in March I hypothesized that silver couldn't sustain price above $30 if the pesky Swaps didn't show any restraint on their short position.
I have now updated the original chart with red bubbles to show all the data points that have accumulated
5
4
33
12
13
75
Reminder - they turned off the buy button on First Majestic too.
I owned multiple options on $AG at the time.
Still mad about it.
7
3
73
I’m riding these mining stocks come hell or high water.
10
0
72
Waiting two hours past normal...finally preliminary results have emerged!
15 million ounces now at the ready.
A threat of delivery has occurred.
Up from 10 million ounces just yesterday.
Questions of why more of today's volume did not filter through to Open Interest
All night long...refreshing the page.
Hoping to see how many contracts converted to Open Interest.
Way past bed time....I try and try again.
Trading closed long ago...
Why the delay?
Instead...going to bed with yesterday's news....
After a massive day that demands results.
2
1
30
5
6
69
YTD Performance - Various Asset Classes
1) $SILJ - Junior Silver Mining Stocks
2) $SLV - Silver
3) $GDX - Gold Mining Stocks
4) $GLD - Gold
3
15
69
Put this man in charge.
Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller:
"Don't go on 60 Minutes, you're not a rock star” says about the Federal Reserves Jay Powell
Time to start dancing.
Let's go.
24
151
675
5
4
68
When you realize your top ranked mining stock took a hedge against gold you didn’t know about.
$EXK
8
0
67
CORRELATION CHART 🧵
#Gold
is playing for keeps. Correlations on a relatively longer scale (90 day averages) have broken down
...all but equities, which is starting to look dicey.
SEE THE CHARTS 👇
2
5
66
Hecla Mining Company - $HL
LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Found it. The statement I wanted to see.
From their 2023 10-K:
"On at least an annual basis - and more frequently if circumstances warrant - we examine our depreciation rates, reserve estimates, and the valuation
Hecla Mining Company - $HL
Summary of Note 7 from most recent 10-K.
Will build on this post later.
Additional table in the comments.
4
0
17
9
3
64
4
0
65
12
4
63
@GRomePow
No joke, there is a corner 6 blocks from me that is going to look like this on Sunday morning.
2
25
17
Hey CME,
Just got some serious volatility in
#Silver
We raising margins today?
Or is that only for upside volatility?
5
3
63
#Silver
CoT data
The Managed Money crowd has only been Net Short 8,983 contracts or more 54 times in the period between CoT data starting (2006) through November 2023. Put differently, they have only been this short for ~5% of the existence of the CoT data since 2006.
Below
We could be on the verge of the "mother of all short covering rallies" for
#SILVER
Managed Money is now over $1 Billion net short in notional value
CAN YOU DIG IT!!!!!
78
167
871
6
9
65
11.7 million ounces off exchange!
And early month CME stoppage.
Bizarre activity on the June silver contract as 30% of contracts vanish last night from midnight settlements. This weeks total = 8.6 million oz.
When shorts panic ... it's never this early:
9
56
243
3
7
63
Actual photo of
#Silver
shorts coming out of their hole and conducting that silver SLAM early this morning well after Shanghai likely had closed and likely before RTH on Comex.
(Don't have futures charts up right now so can't 100% confirm the timing)
8
6
61
They are calling for rate cuts…
Soon to be liquidity programs…
I say just skip to the central bank gold revaluation part.
So much easier than more of these worn out games.
#Gold
1
6
59
@RockBtmEntries
Big red bubble is 50K lots from yesterday in $SLV
Similar trades were put on right before silver went bonkers in April (blue bubble)
7
4
61
Remember when
#Silver
bottomed out this morning?
Well, someone thought that was a great time to slap on 6K contracts of the $SLV $50 Call for January. NO SPREAD.
😂🤣😂🤣
$SLV options getting ratioed...again
Worse than a Cuban post.
2
4
28
8
8
61
The daily limit up for silver on SGE is 12%, while the daily limit up for SFE is 8%. Silver on SFE has raised the limit by ￥8211/kg, while silver on SGE continues to trade. The current price is ￥8275/kg, up 8.94%.
12
54
337
2
3
59
...lot of chatter about Goldman highlighting the big Call volume in $SLV lately.
Was this what they were talking about 😂🤣
Unreal mondo bubble on the $45 strike for January.
13
12
60
4
6
58
1 more trading day until $NEM earnings
Don’t blow it Newmont.
9
1
59
We either get a double top rejection in $SILJ from the May high, or a big ole sexy breakout.
I could tell ya the options volume last two days have been very heavy on calls...
I could tell ya I am long $13 and $14 strike (some of which were bought as a Savage spite trade)...
10
2
59
On December 1st, 2023 the Comex
#Silver
vaults reportedly held 42,888,282 ounces of Registered silver.
Since that time, "customers" of CME Clearing Member HSBC Securities (USA) inc., have issued (delivered) 6676 contracts totaling 33,380,000 ounces.
That is 78% of the amount
COMEX REGISTERED SILVER RISES BY 598K OUNCES - OVER 5.5M OZ IN THREE DAYS
- Vault totals rise 889K oz.
- Open Interest is now equal to 267% of all vaulted silver and 1,665% of Registered silver.
13
30
206
2
9
59
Nothing new here...
Friday's Issues and Stops report
More HSBC "customer" account
#Silver
deliveries.
My oh my does the tally grow....
What happens when they are done?
It has been 6 months.
Will someone else step up?
5
10
57
5
5
57
5
6
57
93 Eagle
Probably overpaid, but I did not have a 93 at the time, so just went for it.
#silversqueeze
12
0
55
I follow a lot of traders, but I have never seen a cacao futures trader posting stuff.
Who are they?
30
2
52