Since Travis Kelce’s birth time is not known (yet, give me time) here is Taylor Swift’s birth chart with Kelce’s planets on the outer wheel ⚡️
His Libra Sun + Mars boosts her 11th House of friendships and community
His Scorpio Venus conjunct her Scorpio Mars means ELECTRICITY
The John Wick 4 costume department really went out of their way to make Bill Skarsgard’s character the drippiest motherfucker to ever walk the face of the Earth
If your QB isn't on a rookie deal or a top 5 talent you've basically got no shot in the NFL. If he's not worth a market deal and you even tag him you've got no shot, just a razor thin margin for error.
Globe NFL Notes: Joe Burrow makes under $4m this year. Jalen Hurts makes less than half of his backup’s salary. Brock Purdy makes league minimum.
Today’s conference championship games offer a compelling case against paying the QB:
A prominent football coach told me that 60% of players in the portal "die" in the portal.
They never transfer and they're not welcome back to the incumbent school.
At
@sumersports
we estimate the value of picks 99, 101, 102, 173, 216, and 253 is roughly equivalent the 5th overall pick in value and the 12th overall pick in surplus value.
99, 101, and 102 alone are with appropriately pick 18 in value.
49ers were awarded three third-round picks - No. 99, 101 and 102. 49ers also gained comp picks in rounds 5, 6, and two in 7, so seven extra picks added today.
While I'm sitting here in pain I'll dive in on this debate with an opinion no one really wants.
Dividing up EPA accurately might be the single hardest problem in football analytics. Every single public (and most private) model(s) that attempt it do a pretty poor job.
I think there's a reasonable argument to make that Lamar wasn't the MVP. I'm more disturbed that in a year where there was no frontrunner most of the season it's 49/50.
I love Lamar and think he's undervalued by things like EPA, but I would have voted for Allen this year.
Stephen A. Smith calls out the one voter who didn't give Lamar Jackson a first-place MVP vote.
"That was a stupid homer vote by that individual, probably scared to go back in the locker room if he had voted against Josh Allen. That compromises everything. You have to be
The Cybertruck will be Tesla’s iPhone moment
It will shock the world with new unimaginable capabilities
It will completely crush all competitors
@elonmusk
🧵
Honestly admire how well the Browns have acquired players at premium positions at cut rates. They're just exploiting the hell out of market inefficiencies.
How good must Justin Fields feel today? Your GM trades down out of top QB territory and gets you a legit receiving threat in the process before FA even starts. Big time buy-in moment.
From doing extra homework to writing about the Seahawks on fan sites to working in the NFL. Thank you to
@dannyoneil
for taking the time to talk to me and write about my story and journey from the military to football.
Stop saying Caleb Williams can act like a child because he's only 22.
Americans younger than him crawled through their best friend's blood on D-Day rushing straight at German machine guns.
They didn't have painted nails.
I see we’ve completely throw out the concept that the defense also entitled to try and catch the ball. Pass interference is basically you’re not allowed to play defense.
People commonly misinterpret premium position to mean a measure of value when really, it’s a measure of scarcity. The reason why you don’t draft linebackers in the first round is exactly as Mike says, you can get them in free agency if needed. Draft high what you can’t buy.
Looking at the recent track record of highly drafted LBs vs. the FA market at the position, I’m not sure it makes sense to ever draft one in the 1st round
The Green Party are nothing more than useful idiots for fossil fuel companies. There is no possible way to reduce climate change without nuclear power. It is pure fantasy.
@BrettKollmann
It's not that QB 8 is overpaid, it's that QBs 1-3 are underpaid due to the salary cap. The curve of talent to cost is basically a sigmoid
My Brother has owned a bar in Costa Rica for like 10 years now and he sends me pictures and videos so sloths that hang out by the bar. One of them had a baby and I just wanted to share the baby sloth picks.
Your only hope for beating generational greatness, other than somehow finding another Mahomes, is relentlessly optimizing your roster and even THEN you need some luck.
I don’t pretend to know everything about the draft or every team, but seeing people mock Bijan Robinson to the Eagles at 10th overall is wild.
Do y’all not pay attention to the Eagles process? Like at all?
If Howie takes a RB at 10th overall in 2023 I’ll eat my hat.
The Cowboys are hiring Sarah Mallepalle as a Strategic Football Analyst, per sources.
Mallepalle had been a Player Personnel Analyst with the Ravens since 2019.
I would be skeptical about extrapolating economic realities of the NFL down to the NCAA level given the differences in talent, talent concentration, and overall effectiveness of phases of the game. Let alone discussing "tread" on a 21 year old...
RBs have long been devalued in the NFL, so it's natural that trickledown would impact NIL.
Quinshon Judkins is a solid RB, but there's already a lot of tread on those tires (545 carries).
Ole Miss clearly decided the juice wasn't worth it for 5.0 yards per carry.
GCU is the largest recipient of federal student aid and has been fined by the DoE more than $40 million for deceiving students about costs.
It caught my attention because for-profit schools like GCU have a long history of preying on veterans by stealing their GI Bill money.
Something a lot of men don't like to admit:
All of your hobbies and ambitions are to attract women.
Nature doesn't care how much personal fulfillment you get from them. Those things are cool, but they're a coincidental positive externality to the prime objective:
To keep the
At
@sumersports
we have Ramsey worth 1521 points of value.
Pick 77 and Long net 1184 points.
Dolphins gain an excess of value of 337 points, roughly equivalent to pick 185 in value in Miami’s favor.
However, given Ramsey’s cost this is a big Surplus Value win for the Rams.
Trade is now agreed to, per sources:
🏈Dolphins get Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey.
🏈Rams get 2023 third-round pick (No. 77) and TE Hunter Long.
Trade will be processed Wednesday, when league year begins.
The criticism was for the Will Anderson Jr trade up which was one of the biggest overpays in YEARS for a non-QB. Don’t get revisionist Stroud was a good bet at the time and the Texans took the right guy at 2.
Remember all the criticism of CJ Stroud before the draft when he went No. 2 overall to the Texans?
GM Nick Caserio made a wise decision.
Today, Stroud is the 6th player in NFL history to record 450 pass yards, 5 Pass TD and 0 interceptions in game.
He’s the first rookie.
People are skipping over starter homes, and jumping straight into 300k+ Mortgages. That’s one of the reasons they’re financially failing. Your first car shouldn’t be a Bentley.
In our current age of bad faith I am seldom left stunned at bad faith framing of a subject, but this title and argument leaves me absolutely gobsmacked with how bad faith it truly is.
The NFL must protect the fumble-out-of-the-end-zone-touchback play at all costs. Scoring is a privilege, not some slapped-together macaroni art. It needs to be upheld as such.
Anthony Richardson's 60-yard TD pass to Alec Pierce traveled 65.3 yards in the air, the 3rd-longest completion in the Next Gen Stats era.
#HOUvsIND
|
@ScottHanson
14 years 3 months 2 days as an officer in the US Army.
10 months 29 days enlisted.
4 years 3 months 2 days overseas.
I've been working as a civilian for a couple months on terminal leave but seeing that signed DD-214 this morning hit me hard.
Well...I guess that's that.
Panthers plan to hire SumerSports VP Eric Eager in an analytics role, per league source.
Eager worked for Pro Football Focus prior to SumerSports, a startup in 2022 (that also employs Thomas Dimitroff) aimed at helping NFL teams in player acquisition and roster management.
Introducing Field Position Over Expected, a new metric to evaluate the performance of punters.
Last season, A.J. Cole of the Raiders led the league in FPOE with +221. Cole has generated +511 FPOE since 2021, more than any other punter in that span.
#RaiderNation
But twitter is also a platform made for extreme opinions, so there's that.
I'll just close with when we say things like "Purdy's EPA" or "Jackson's EPA" we really mean the offense not just that one player. The question of how much of that belongs to the QB is mostly open.
In August we're starting up our first (of many!) Atlanta area sports analytics socials.
@ericeager_
and myself will be at New Realm Brewing Company Friday August 11th at 7pm. Come hang and talk sports analytics. All sports welcome!
Pass rush win rate isn’t a real stat.
Either you got a sack, a pressure, a quarterback hit, drew a penalty, broke up a pass … or you lost.
Tell your friends.
@statsowar
Elon complaining about the bot problem and then rolled out a pay for verification program that absolutely does not verify anything whatsoever seemed like a big tell at the time
There are a lot of great NFL advanced analytics out there, and it's really easy (and sometimes very tempting) to use them in ways that don't make sense. I wrote about a few things to think about as you look at things like EPA, RYOE, and others