Alejandro Scórpio
@Scorpio_Alejand
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Pinned Tweet
My bold calls for 2024:
#Gold
& $SPX could converge to 3200 👀
$TLT $XAU $XAG $GDX
#oil
$USDJPY $EURUSD $EURJPY $PLNJPY $SEKJPY
@TOzgokmen
@value_invest12
@acataldi77
19
6
51
My MacroMicro Economic VIM Index of America today has reached a lower value than during the climax of 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis. 👀
As you can see
#recession
started in the midst of 2022 and only worsened.
Storm is coming for $SPX ☔
14
6
46
Biggest drop on record.
Construction Job openings.
Ouch 🥶
@TOzgokmen
Oh wait... So, Who was warning us on collapsing Lumber was right ? 👀
@leadlagreport
RIP Housing: construction job openings implode from 456K to 274K - 182K monthly drop is biggest on record
179
1K
5K
2
10
35
We live in one of the worst historical Capital Misallocation.
Investors are pricing risk only in $TLT
#bonds
.
Meanwhile $SPX
#equity
is priced as riskless.
Pendulum is at an extreme.
A beating of hummingbird wings could flippen this, as in 2002 and 2008.
@TOzgokmen
5
8
31
$EUR EURO 🇪🇺🌈 Banks Deposit Outflows are 3x BIGGER than US🇺🇸
Still believe $EUR Banks are "resilient" ???
@JeffSnider_AIP
@EPBResearch
@w_washtrades
@MichaelAArouet
@AndreasSteno
@RobinBrooksIIF
6
15
27
🇺🇲🇪🇺🇨🇳 have something in common in last 2 months:
#deflation
!
Last time they were synchronized in
#deflation
was December 2018...
in the following 9 months:
🇺🇲 10y yield HALVED !
🇪🇺 10y yield dropped SUBZERO !
#ratecuts
#fed
#ecb
#rates
#ZIRP
#NIRP
4
7
29
Why $NVDA and "Ai labeled" is a bubblemania and nothing more ?
Because...
The REAL Ai Index (Cloud-based Software Companies, which will benefit the most from this "Ai Revolution" through their Automation & Productivity unique provided features) is down -45% since 2021 ! 👀
7
7
27
Lowest worked hours since covid full lockdowns !
It smells
#recession
!
Watch Y-o-Y drop 👀
Only in
#recession
u can get a -1.4% !
Go beyond BLS tricks 🪄
8
7
23
OIL COULD FALL BELOW 50$ !
Oil production today is back at 2019 levels, but... in 2019 oil price was 54$ !
-30% vs today !
What if today's demand is weaker than 2019 ?
@mikemcglone11
@w_washtrades
@zerohedge
@MacroAlf
17
1
19
The Netherlands 🇪🇺🇳🇱 have officially entered
#DEFLATION
!
The LOWEST inflation rate since Aug-2016 ! 🏴☠️
Unbelievable... With Hedge Funds thinking ECB rates will never fall below 4% in the next 30 years ! 🤦🏻♂️
H/t
@w_washtrades
@value_invest12
@TOzgokmen
@PPGMacro
3
8
20
⚠️
#Creditevent
Between Tomorrow and next week the BIGGEST EVER rebalancing will force
#margincalls
to Comparuzzis which are short $TLT
Pension Funds will buy tons of
#bonds
to mantain their
#duration
target.
BIS warned us 10 days ago !
@value_invest12
@TOzgokmen
@PPGMacro
7
5
21
#recession
has been in front of our 👀 since March 2022 !
🇺🇲 LEI has printed 18 NEGATIVE months IN A ROW !
Dr
#Copper
plunged -30%
&
Prof
#Aluminum
tanked -50% !
@value_invest12
@PPGMacro
@TOzgokmen
@Dan_Kostecki
9
5
20
231k out 272k are fake jobs added manually by the BLS with the spreadsheet Birth Death "Model". 🪄🤡
Household survey shows -408k
#jobs
destroyed last month.
🌈 Happy Cotton-Soft Dreams.
@TOzgokmen
3
4
19
Keep trusting in PMIs and Confidence useless indicators, folks !
As you did till October 2008...
#deflation
meanwhile is coming, are you prepared ?
@TOzgokmen
5
2
18
$VIX fair level today should be ~50.
The default rate for US leveraged loans has topped 6% this year, almost double the average going back to 1997, according to data from Moody’s Investors Service. And it’s not just smaller companies that have been driving the defaults.
4
9
18
The best asset class to buy along the road leading to the 1st rate cut is..... 🥁🥁🥁
$GDX
#GoldMiners
!
I don't know why people rush to buy Mag7 in view of
#ratecuts
🤷🏻♂️
$NEM could easily double from here !
4
2
17
$TLT
Current levels in:
I.
#economic
#cycle
II.
#credit
#cycle
III.
#labor
#cycle
IV.
#inflation
#cycle
are calling for a 30y Treasury yield between [1.2% ; 2%]
@BillAckman
& his comparuzzis friends are aware of what are they shorting here ? 🤔
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
1
1
16
@TOzgokmen
@Gitro77
🇮🇹 Italy Industrial Sales:
-15% since Feb-2022!
Italy Main Street is harassed by the ECB with a 4½ percent interest rate, despite Italian inflation is hovering at ~0% !
What a bad choice had been for Italy, to ditch the Italian Lira $ITL and its monetary sovereignity...
🤦🏻♂️
2
2
16
Quantitative Easing was created by Tiberius in Rome in year 33 CE.
NOT invented by the Fed 1975 years later as many believe.
So yes... Rome Empire fell despite QE.
QE is NOT magic.
@TOzgokmen
2
4
15
Update ⚠️
#EUR
#Banks
have lost ⅕ of their
#deposits
in last 9 months !
4x BIGGER
#deposit
#outflows
than american Banks !
But investors continue to pile up
#EUR
#Banks
#stocks
relentless 🤦🏻♂️
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
6
4
12
2
2
15
Natural Gas at 1.60$ is a
#deflation
Super Spreader !
Food and Services
#prices
are set to fall further, significantly.
@TOzgokmen
8
4
15
@TOzgokmen
ISM & PMI = useless ! super optimistic surveys used as camouflage of the Main Street desolation to keep Wall Street afloat.
ISM Manufacturing stayed above 50 for ⅔ of 2008. Prices above 50 for ⅚ of 2008.
Then 1 month later NBER said
#recession
was already here since 2007 ! 🤦🏻♂️
4
2
14
They are "unaware" of The_Yellow 💴🟡
Maybe too young to remember that +30% $JPY appreciation, in 55 days only, in the 2008 carrytrades unwinding.
🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
@TOzgokmen
@acataldi77
3
1
15
NO new liquidity created, forget RRP stories...
1.
they liquidated treasuries $TLT to get liquidity to pump $SPX and Mag7
2.
they start to liquidate among their equity holdings to pump Mag7
3.
Mag7 CANNIBALIZED...
$TSLA $AAPL $GOOG dumped to pump $NVDA via options
4.
GAME OVER
2
0
14
$VIX spikes are reported during $JPY Japanese Yen
#fx
Carry Trade Unwinding episodes.
@leadlagreport
is absolutely right.
Don't slow when is raining hard, lead your investment portfolio to a crash. 👀
There's a Storm ahead for $SPX ☔
@TOzgokmen
4
1
13
$GDX Gold Miners annihilated $SPX and $QQQ around 2008's rate CUTS Episode !
In just 2 years $GDX performance was 6x the $SPX and more than 3x the Nasdaq !
I don't need any gambling on $NVDA now 😉 and you ?
@TOzgokmen
5
2
14
It was 2008, and people were mocking the Japanese Yen, relying on their Carrytrades... Because BoJ hikes were "so small"...
Then the Japanese Yen suddenly appreciated +45% in JUST 60 DAYS... DESTROYING all Carrytrades built in the previous 4 years !
Beware of The_Yellow ! 💴🟡
2
5
12
ALERT: 💴⚠️
Sharp appreciation of the Japanese Yen $JPY could be both cause and/or consequence of the $NVDA LEVERAGED GAME OVER.
$SPX $QQQ $TLT $AAPL $TSLA $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT
$MXN $USD $EUR
11
4
13
The perfect
#short
?
#EUR
#Banks
are massively overvalued
#sx7e
outperformed +37% ytd
#bkx
despite
#EUR
#Banks
4x BIGGER
#deposit
#outflows
than american Banks...
and
#bankruptcies
(soon
#NPLs
) rising +30% YoY in
#EU
, 2x faster than in US !
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
5
4
12
More Bullshit disproved...
Global Wheat Production is at alltime highs, despite main media told us for over 1 year of tight supply because ukraine war...
Price increases were made only by financial comparuzzis speculating via derivatives, NOT
#SUPPLY
#DEMAND
forces
#DEFLATION
6
5
13
FEW remember, BUT...
At the beginning of this Century, FOR 15 YEARS,
Investing in
#30y
#Treasuries
$TLT returned +4% more per year, than
#investing
in $SPX !!!!
@value_invest12
@TOzgokmen
@PPGMacro
9
3
12
Incorporating the LAG effect:
Only ⅓ of the tightening went through
#consumer
#credit
Fed already OVERTIGHTENED
NO credit = NO growth
It's TOO LATE to avoid a
#recession
Getting closer to
#QE
again
2
3
11
"Market crash" discussions have plummeted to ZERO this weekend on X.
Interesting 😏
2
1
12
Update ⚠️
#EUR
#Banks
have lost ⅕ of their
#deposits
in last 9 months !
4x BIGGER
#deposit
#outflows
than american Banks !
But investors continue to pile up
#EUR
#Banks
#stocks
relentless 🤦🏻♂️
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
6
4
12
ALL Regional Manufacturing Surveys DECLINED last month !
But ISM Manufacturing climbed ??? 🤔
Who do you trust ??
@TOzgokmen
2
1
12
The Government announced 36,044 job eliminations in March. This is the highest monthly total for the sector since September 2011.
@TOzgokmen
Government spending can't sustain GDP anymore ! 👀
2
2
12
$KRE Regional Banks are sinking despite "relief" brought by a -10 bps on 10y rates. 👀
Mark this day. 📝
The beginning of the acknowledgement for stocks.
Conditions are already worse than 2008.
Lags of Cancer start biting.
@TOzgokmen
2
2
12
Comic ? 🤡 or tragic ? 🤦🏻♂️
When the crap overflows the Mainstream Propaganda runs in a hurry to find scapegoats...
It's all good folks, be Happy ! 🌈
It was only rainy weather... 🤡☔
After all, in GB it has never rained before ! 🤡🤡🤡
@TOzgokmen
5
3
11
It's so damn evident.
They are picking pounds of flesh 🥩🔪 (cash) from Magnificent 7 (minus 1) to pay call option premiums on $NVDA & semis.
This let $SPX rising despite shitty breadth.
Leveraged pumping speculation.
⚠️ Every toy put under strain is subject to abruptly BREAK
2
1
11
#EUR
#Banks
are very LAZY to book
#bankruptcies
in their balance sheet.
How Italian
#Banks
can book less
#NPLs
with rising
#bankruptcies
in Italy? Only God knows 🤔
$DBK $CBK $BNP $GLE $ACA $UCG $ISP $BAMI $BPE
@value_invest12
@PPGMacro
6
6
11
I swear I've built my MacroMicro Economic VIM Index without including the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI).
The message however is the same: this
#recession
started in 2022, is now evolving in something ATROCIOUS and never seen before. 👀
1
0
10
Italy proper interest rate should be ZERO.
But till croatian inflation doesn't go <2% "smart" ECB "can't" cut rates ! 🤦🏻♂️
CAVEAT: in the meantime italian inflation could slip well beyond SUBZERO with
#recession
!
I feel so sorry for Italians people victims of this crime. 😢
2
2
10
It's time to update this...
23 months in a row of shrinking economic activity.
Cotton-Soft Landing is a dream.
Wake up ! 🌃⏰💣
#recession
is ringing 👀
@TOzgokmen
1
2
11
Banks on the verge of a global interconnected Crisis...
But European Banks
#sx7e
up +70% and Japanese Banks +100%.
Contagion risk is NOT priced at all.
What could go wrong ? 🤦🏻♂️
2
2
11
Just for your info:
Last time Natural Gas was at 1.85$
#fed
#rates
were at
#ZIRP
and 10y yield was at 0.70%
#deflation
This time is different, right ?
1
6
11
"A 44% decline in equity prices would return the equity premium to the range that prevailed from 2014 through most of 2022 -- around 6 percentage points."
Bloomberg Economics
$SPX $QQQ $VIX
@TOzgokmen
3
4
11
Dear Weimarians, here's the main reason why u will never see a repeat of the 1970s "legendary" waves:
Ruling elites from snowhite of Davos are sharply marketing
against new families 👨👩👧👦 formation 🤷🏻♂️
#deflation
is entrenched
@TOzgokmen
@w_washtrades
@acataldi77
@olivierifederi3
2
2
10
#DEFLATION
in the Netherlands 🇳🇱 has worsened (unexpectedly -1% YoY) into uncharted abysses since joined the
#EUR
🇪🇺
@value_invest12
@TOzgokmen
@PPGMacro
@Dan_Kostecki
@joosteninvestor
@w_washtrades
2
2
10
I feel many people (and "Experts" at Central Banks too) are NOT getting the danger of this situation.
#deflation
is alive more than ever !
Natural Gas collapsed to ~1.80$ as in 2020, but this time WITHOUT a shutdown of any Economic Sector 😲
Keyword: DEMAND
#recession
NG drops below $1.90, almost to the levels during the worst of the 1st phase of covid = global econ shutdown.
1
6
18
1
4
10
@TOzgokmen
Funny thing is that inflation collapse from 18% to 2% has nothing to do with interest rates hikes, but it's due to its self-repairing nature, driven by elasticity of demand vs higher prices !
1
0
10
Cocoa plunges MOST EVER...
Stampede of comparuzzis...
It wasn't healthy demand, but derivatives speculation 🤦🏻♂️
Watch the Japanese Yen Carrytrade unwinding 🟡💴
$NVDA $QQQ $SPX Eurostoxx Banks
#sx7e
Everything is connected. And detached from fundamentals !
Be ready ☔
@TOzgokmen
2
1
10
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
@TOzgokmen
Biden & DEM crew r artificially pushing up
#gasoline
Prices for Aug-Sep 2023, to create a favorable
#disinflation
YoY base effect for Aug-Sep 2024 just 4 weeks before the vote !
#oil
will resume its freefall in October !
1
2
10
@TOzgokmen
The Fed and its Masters want a $JPY Tsunami to end abruptly all the carrytrades 💴🟡
BoJ cornered 👀
"High Sense of Urgency" emerging at this point of the movie...
Tuesday next week could be a LIVE margincall day ⚠️
🔴 BOJ TO DISCUSS NEGATIVE RATE EXIT NEXT WEEK - NIKKEI
4
28
118
2
1
10
Given
#collapse
in
#manufacturing
#neworders
and
#aluminum
#EUR
#Banks
and
#PLN
are massively
#overvalued
This irrational
#mispricing
refusing historical laws in
#macro
#fundamentals
creates opportunities:
#sell
#EUR
#Banks
and
#PLN
#buy
#JPY
@w_washtrades
@value_invest12
7
2
10
1. Mexico and Canada are importing
#deflation
from 🇨🇳
2. US 🇺🇸 are importing
#deflation
from Mexico and Canada ! 😅
*CANADA JUNE RAW MATERIALS PRICE FALLS 1.5% M/M; EST. -0.4%
@TOzgokmen
@RadicalAdem
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
2
2
10
3
2
9
May 2024:
#recession
probability = 76%
But keep trusting ISMs and PMIs optimism politically distorted....
ISMs and PMIs were positive till September in 2008...
Do you remember ?
NBER is waiting for $SPX -30% as in 2008. Hence
#recession
will be "official".
4
3
9
Do u know $PATH ?
They're exactly Automation and Productivity. Real. Human replacement.
Existed already 5y ago when nobody use the "Ai" label.
Stock is down -72%.
Because it's a mania.
Irrational.
Disconnected from fundamentals.
Only Mag7 stocks benefited from the "Ai" label.
0
1
9
It's nice to see the 1st rate cut priced with 75% probability in Sep-24 after CPI 0% MoM.
Because only after the 1st rate cut $SPX
#stocks
$NVDA Bubble Collapse can begin. 🥰
2007-2009
500 bps of rate cuts
👇🏻
$SPX -56%
It means $SPX at
2️⃣3️⃣8️⃣8️⃣
in next 18 months 🥶
@TOzgokmen
2
2
11
@TOzgokmen
The Fed is no longer in control of Gold $XAU. Any attempt to prop up the $USD, via higher rates based on BLS cooked data, is collateral damaging Main Street economy. Finally Fed will give up with no choices but resetting rates to ZERO.
$XAU $XAG $GDX will go much much HIGHER !
1
0
9
People believed in Cotton-Soft Landing until August 2008, trusting ISM Manufacturing above 50.
Stagflation chatter lasted 2 months, trusting ISM Manufacturing Prices above 50 despite Activity decline.
Then GFC and a decade of
#deflation
swallowed everything.
@TOzgokmen
10
1
10
Natural Gas, the fuel of 2022 inflation, has now shifted the gear into R !
1.75$
Deep
#deflation
ahead...
1
0
9
@TOzgokmen
By processing and optimizing the Leads and Lags of main Cycles:
Monetary
Credit
Consumption
Earnings
Bankruptcies
Refinancing
Equity Risk Premium
I got to this shitty state of the economy.
I'm waiting patiently.
No doubts.
$SPX is set for a -50%
My MacroMicro Economic VIM Index of America today has reached a lower value than during the climax of 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis. 👀
As you can see
#recession
started in the midst of 2022 and only worsened.
Storm is coming for $SPX ☔
14
6
46
1
1
9
2024 has brought new data consistent and/or worse than 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis, both in Manufacturing and Services.
Investors have chosen to ignore them and believe to Fed puppets & "experts" from Davos, squawcking that rates won't be cut to 0% in panic mode. Good luck !
2
2
9
It's time to update this...
23 months in a row of shrinking economic activity.
Cotton-Soft Landing is a dream.
Wake up ! 🌃⏰💣
#recession
is ringing 👀
@TOzgokmen
1
2
11
0
3
9
Beware of *The_Yellow 🟡 !
💴 $JPY is the Fed's weapon to kill frothiness, triggering financial
#recession
on-demand, functional to a reset back to
#ZIRP
just in time for elections !
*Who was trading
#fx
in 2008 maybe can remember Japanese Yen nickname: "The_Yellow"
@acataldi77
12
2
8
Those invoking
#oil
supply cuts must be aware 🇸🇦 is in
#recession
hence in vital need of
#revenues
selling till last drop of
#oil
💦
30$ has higher probability than 100$ ⚠️
#oott
@value_invest12
@TOzgokmen
1
0
8
Banco Santander has skipped the first repayment option in a €1 billion AT1 bond, marking a rare extension. This decision signals the first skipped call after Deutsche Pfandbriefbank earlier this year ⚠️
#sx7e
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
@misterpuertas
The perfect
#short
?
#EUR
#Banks
are massively overvalued
#sx7e
outperformed +37% ytd
#bkx
despite
#EUR
#Banks
4x BIGGER
#deposit
#outflows
than american Banks...
and
#bankruptcies
(soon
#NPLs
) rising +30% YoY in
#EU
, 2x faster than in US !
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
5
4
12
0
0
8
Similar quantitative magnitude of $SPX $VIX divergence have occurred rarely.
Last 3 times:
2-23 sep-2020
$SPX -10%
12-feb 23-mar 2020
$SPX -35%
26-jan 8-feb 2018
$SPX -10%
#Volmageddon
3-may 2-jul 2010
$SPX -15%
U r warned 👀
4
2
8
US PPI
6th month IN A ROW of Intermediate Goods
#deflation
!
*July worst than June
#recession
Don't trust
#demand
recovery fairytales ! We have
#inventories
GLUT !
40% of PPI rebound YoY is due to portfolio management fees 🤦🏻♂️
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
3
2
8
Bread and Cereals are the most eaten food in the World.
FYI: Wheat and Grains are back at 2009 price.
#deflation
which no one is talking about 👀
2
3
8
@RJRCapital
$JPY carrytrade has been the primary source of this pump
-13% ! 👀
in a matter of hours, with NO NEWS !
A lot of TOXIC ☢️
#derivatives
behind $NVDA
$SPX and $QQQ are set to collapse.
Stampede of comparuzzis trying to exit from $NVDA + the NBER alerted for official
#recession
could soon push the $VIX >50 !
0
0
5
1
1
8
@TOzgokmen
@leadlagreport
@acataldi77
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese financial authorities should consider conducting coordinated currency intervention with other countries to support the yen, the head of the Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.
1
2
8
Fed removed the following line from the latest FOMC statement:
“The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
They’re trying to memory hole what they’ve been telling us for 10 months because they know what’s coming - after all, they engineered it.
1
3
8
CPI & PPI farce of "0.1%" vs expectations are a mere means of distracting attention from real NEGATIVE Retail Sales. 👀
Are we still talking about an economy based on private consumption, right ? 🤔
This crappy consumption is the earnings of $SPX you are buying !
1
1
8
A Record Number Of American 40-Year-Olds Have Never Been Married
201
247
1K
2
0
8
3/3
New tariffs + $USD vs Gold war.
Poisoned mix for Export.
Far weaker $EUR Exchange Rate needed to offset these drags.
@TOzgokmen
#recession
in Eurozone is accelerating fast.
$EUR Current Account missed estimates by -35% !
Please keep in mind that the major Export Country for Eurozone, 🇨🇳 , has still to retaliate against $EUR tariffs ! Hence $EUR Export Activity will soon precipitate dramatically !
1
0
1
1
0
7
Please, count with me the negative months of economic development:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
and 24 out of last 25 ...
are NEGATIVE !
The hidden
#recession
of Main Street.
@TOzgokmen
5
0
7
WHY Poland
#PLN
(the
#industrial
champion with 6% avg growth) choose voting pro 🌈🇪🇺 (which DOESN'T grow!) to be "helped" economically it's 1 of the biggest mistery... The main risk here is to repeat Italy's sad decline story after joining the
#EUR
🤦🏻♂️
@GotfrydKarol
@Dan_Kostecki
5
0
8
@TOzgokmen
My Dem-October conspiracy theory hit the 🎯🎯🎯
😅👇🏻
@value_invest12
I'm expecting a BIG collapse in
#oil
starting next week.
The last CPI before the 2024
#elections
will be released on 15-Oct-2024 on September 2024 prices, compared against SEPTEMBER 2023.
Higher 2023 base effect NO MORE NEEDED from 1-oct 😉
1
1
4
2
1
8
@TOzgokmen
Till 1 month ago people went mad about 2nd wave of inflation, supposed to be unavoidable because of shipping costs.
Why no one today is talking about Houthis & Djibouthis 🏴☠️🇩🇯 anymore ?
Answer:
Because shipping demand collapsed -34% in last 13 days ! 👀
#deflation
1
1
8
Main Street
#commodities
just printed another LOW exceeding -20% drawdown 👀
#deflation
Conspiracy Theory:
Are Houthis & Djibouthis and main media high coverage of Red Sea only an excuse to hide Global Trade (Freights)
#recession
?
Demand is DEAD
@acataldi77
@olivierifederi3
6
1
8
5
4
8
🇪🇺 ECB 4.5% interest rate is slowly killing Italy 🇮🇹 day after day.
Italians should immediately exit the
#EUR
and come back to their own Central Bank and currency !
@TOzgokmen
@Gitro77
1
2
7
@leadlagreport
@TOzgokmen
$MXNJPY FX Carry accumulated in 4 months has just been ERASED in a matter of FEW Hours !
Comparuzzis are called to unwind their $NVDA Derivatives Castle to pay Japanese Yen margins.
$VIX and $HYG are a function of the $JPY 👀
The 2024 Global Crisis has began.
2
2
7
Will $VIX stop at 50 or mark triple digit 100 for the 1st time ?
And no, war is only the trigger, NOT the fundamentals behind $VIX rise. Plenty of data pointing to
#recession
#bankruptcies
#layoffs
#deflation
...
#depression
👀
@TOzgokmen
1
0
7
IKEA
#deflation
Means homebuilding activity, new home demand is giving up 👀
@TOzgokmen
@DiMartinoBooth
1
0
7
$MXNJPY the most used short Japanese Yen carrytrade, to fuel $NVDA pump, today has blown up.
Fasten your hamsters seatbelts !
@leadlagreport
0
0
7
"U r missing $SPX rally"
Me fact-checking: "from 19-oct $SPX gains are ONLY HALF of $TLT gains!"
$SPX +10% vs $TLT +21% 👀
Long equity is NOT the best allocation here.
It's Long
#bonds
the best one.
And could be only the beginnining, lasting for a decade...
0
1
7
3
0
5
NOT MISS 1 useful detail:
inflation MoM could print
#SUBZERO
!
Happened 33x in last 243 months (~14% NOT NEGLIGIBLE) especially with
#economic
#demand
#weakness
as in 2023
Reflacionistas
#NIGHTMARE
:
a repeat of H2'08
#deflation
#pattern
@w_washtrades
@value_invest12
@PPGMacro
1
0
7
Cocoa, the stuff used by Weimarians to show the world there's a 2nd wave of Inflation...
Cocoa, the stuff used by comparuzzis Momentum chasers as long $NVDA and short the $JPY...
Cocoa is down -40% in Just 10 DAYS. No panic 👀 Derivatives Castle is sound & resilient...
@TOzgokmen
3
0
7
🎯🎯🎯
#PLN
Poland
#zloty
1st
#jumbo
#ratecut
delivered !
FEW were prepared
#fx
#carrytrades
r going
#bankrupt
Buy
#JPY
Japanese
#Yen
@value_invest12
@w_washtrades
@TOzgokmen
@leadlagreport
@GotfrydKarol
@VPatelFX
1
0
7
We live in one of the worst historical Capital Misallocation.
Investors are pricing risk only in $TLT
#bonds
.
Meanwhile $SPX
#equity
is priced as riskless.
Pendulum is at an extreme.
A beating of hummingbird wings could flippen this, as in 2002 and 2008.
@TOzgokmen
5
8
31
1
2
7
@TOzgokmen
Perfect understanding of movements ! Despite time spent travelling 😉
U have 🎯🎯🎯 all the points imho !
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
#oil
& $SPX not rising with weaker Dollar and
#30y
<4% 👀 it's getting dramatic out there !
R_CESSION 🙀
1
0
7
@TOzgokmen
@Gitro77
-15% ≠ -15% 🤡
It's the same industrial
#recession
🇮🇹 experienced in H2 2008 !
But funnily this time Italian Gov (fake populists, servants of Global Dems in funding wars & implementing anti-family Agendas) is talking about recovery and full employment à la Sleepy Joe's BLS ! 🤡
2
1
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