Value Investigator
@value_invest12
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I invest in great companies with long growth runways trading at reasonable prices.
Joined September 2011
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Pinned Tweet
New Writeup on HelloFresh:
What could be the Value of Factor75 on a Stand-Alone Basis?
(Spoiler: I estimate at least 3x today's market cap)
Link in bio (free)
$HFG
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Has FANG ever been that cheap?
• $FB at a PE of 16x
• $AMZN at 15x AWS sales (e-commerce for free)
• $NFLX at a PE of 17.5x
• $GOOG at a PE of 20x
…and I don’t even own any of those names currently. What a crazy market.
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Pleased to share my $META write-up is out!
Why Meta is a great business with a long growth runway and a growing moat.
Bear case: 15% CAGR next 10 years with 4% growth
Base case: 11x next 10 years, still writing off metaverse
Details below:
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@ABaerbock
Währenddessen kommen weiter Hunderttausende pro Jahr ins Land.
Stürzenberger wurde vom Verfassungschutz beobachtet, der Djihadist nicht. Die Kontrolle ist längst verloren gegangen.
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Bought a 7% position in TLT (>20y US treasury ETF) yielding ~4.1%.
Its been a long time since bonds appeared this attractive to me.
I anticipate LT bond yields will normalize to a 3% yield over 2-3ys.
~12% income return over 3ys + significant price appreciation if I’m right
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$BABA June Quarter Results:
• 34% revenue growth
• 29% cloud revenue growth
• 90% Lazada order growth
• share buyback program increased to $15bn, 3.7bn repurchased since April 1 💥
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"BofA's latest fund managers survey showed China as a new top tail risk for market performance."
Now that $BABA and $TCEHY trade at PEs of 14 and 13, fund managers have identified China as a top tail risk 😂.
Better hide in cozy 50x sales stocks 😘
This is why there is alpha.
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$JD looking very good here:
• $5.5b free cash flow last 12m
• 15% FCF yield on market cap of $37b
Taking into account net cash, it gets crazy cheap:
• cash and short term investments: $34.3b
• short and long term debt ~$6.5 b
-> net cash about $27.8b or 74% of market cap 👀
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2023 Performance: 174%
Check out what it took to deliver such a performance with a long-only equity portfolio (Spoiler: still licking 2022 wounds).
Nevertheless, I am pleased and proud my CAGR since 2016 is back to 20%.
Wishing everyone a very successful 2024!
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$Meta quietly up 47% from the low in November. That was crazy. Still is.
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This night’s wealth distribution announcement of $7.7 billion by Tencent made me change my mind on Chinese stocks.
I can handle A LOT of big tech regulation, but I cannot handle my wealth being redistributed to the people of China.
$BABA $TCEHY
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@Hartes_Geld
@PolizeiMannheim
@Bundeskanzler
@BILD
Und ihr wagt es besoffene Kinder auf Sylt sozial zu vernichten weil sie ein Lied gegen diese Ausländer singen?
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Facebook now at less than 10x 2021 operating income from family of apps.
$FB
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Inflation down to 3.0%, despite:
- shelter inflation still at 7.8%
- with its 34% weight in CPI, shelter hence caused 2.7% out of the 3.0%
Inflation ex shelter is this 0.3%.
Every real time rent index is at ~0%
We’re at some 0.2% inflation at this point.
Crazy stuff. FED
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If by 2033, Tesla sells 5 million cars a year (up from 1.8m in 2023) at an average sales price of $50k (currently $45k), total revenue from automotive would be $252b. At a net margin of 10%, this gets us to annual earnings of $25b.
At a 20x P/E, the value of the automotive
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@ainyrockstar
Unsere Gesetze und Normen im Umgang mit Straftätern stammen aus einer anderen Zeit.
High Trust Society ist nicht mehr und christliche Vergebung wird von denen nur als Schwäche ausgelegt und als Anstiftung zum Weitermachen.
Das Strafgesetz sollte komplett überarbeitet werden.
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New writeup: The Investment Case for Chinese Stocks
1) Depressing Performance and Sentiment around Chinese stocks
2) Significant triggers for a Reversal
3) Why my consideration of the risk/reward leads to a 20% China exposure
$BABA $JD $YY $FINV
Link in bio (free)
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Performance:
YTD: 53.2%
Q2: 10.0%
CAGR since inception: 42.9%
Current Portfolio:
$SFTBY 22%
Prosus 12%
$BABA 10%
$FB 10%
Hellofresh 10%
$AMZN 10%
$CRM 10%
$CELH 10%
$TDOC 5%
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Bought some Amazon.
• AWS at 16x 2021 sales = 944bn
• E-commerce at 4x 2021 sales = 1635bn (assuming many years of ~20% growth and ~10% operating margins at scale)
-> 57% upside compared to today’s market cap
Potential ~3.5x next 5ys
$AMZN
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Alibaba at a trailing PE of 19.3 here.
Scared international money probably out by now.
Imagine we now have two weeks without regulatory news and then earnings demonstrating the business is as strong as ever, fundamentally growing ~30%.
$BABA
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Facebook Q3:
• 35% revenue growth
• 12% user growth (now 3.58bn people)
• bought back $14bn shares (1.6% of market cap in one quarter)
• increased buyback authorization by $50bn
• expects 18% revenue growth in Q4
$FB
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App Annie 2021 Global Ranking
Unfortunately, nobody uses Facebook anymore 😂 $FB
Twitter 👀 $TWTR
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4.3% say Tiktok is their favorite social media app.
Guess who owns the top3
$FB
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Facebook now at 8.2x 2021 operating earnings from family of apps.
7.3x ex Cash.
$FB
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Market cap of $SE now 34.4% of $BABA.
…while:
• revenues are not even 20% of $BABAs earnings(!).
• losing $1.6bn p.a. vs earning $23.2bn
• having 3.9% of $BABAs revenue.
Sure it’s growing much faster and doesn’t currently have to deal with the Chinese regulator.
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$Meta at 6.0x EV / Ebitda (2021)
Company is virtually debt free
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Alibaba aiming to deliver Chinese goods globally within 72 hours.
$BABA
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$SE now at 9.2x EV/EBITDA (Q2 annualized).
Peak $Meta craziness was I think EV/Ebitda of 6
Whereby IMO long term growth prospects for $SE are much stronger than for $META.
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Softbank at an NAV discount of 48.5%. I expect a 185% total return next 3ys from here, largely based on $BABA going up materially higher and the discount closing to 25%. Asset sales + share buybacks over the period would be the cherry on the cake, allowing for a 3x.
$SFTBY
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Google Q4:
• 32% revenue growth
• 37.6% EPS growth
• 44.6% Google cloud growth
-> 2021 PE of 24.5
-> 2021 PE ex Cash: 22.7
$GOOG
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$META has six new friends in the Metaverse:
Microsoft (Teams, XBox Games, 365)
Epic Games
NBC
Accenture
Peacock
Zoom
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By the end of July my portfolio was up 167% YTD.
Below is my current positioning. Stay tuned for updates. Planning a number of writeups in the months and weeks to come.
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Down to 10 positions - feels good
SoftBank 15%
HelloFresh 15%
Facebook 10%
Amazon 10%
Salesforce 10%
Alibaba 10%
Prosus 10%
Celsius 8%
Peloton 6%
Teladoc 6%
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Upstart now at a ~24 PE this year, growing >70% and landing one huge success after another.
Im adding: 17.5% Position now
$UPST
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Facebook leveraging its incredible set of online real estate. $FB
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iShares emerging markets ETF is flat since 2007.
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Tencent Q2:
• Revenue +20% year over year
• Games revenue struggling a bit (+12%), likely regulatory impact.
Other segments on fire:
• online advertising +23%
• social and others +28%
• fintech & business services +41%
Fair value in listed companies: $223bn
$TCEHY
$PRX
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Once in a life A Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks🏘️💰🇩🇪
1/ Vonovia, $LEG, $TAG, $GCP currently trade at a 67% discount to NAV, with a potential 200% mid term upside. It's a rare opportunity to buy into this market at a bargain price.
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Not even a Rolex is protecting you in this bear market.
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Increased my HelloFresh from 15% to 20%. Best risk / reward I’ve seen since Meta at $90. $HFG
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Alibaba Q4:
• revenue growth 5%
• adjusted Ebitda +1%
• adjusted EPS -2%
• reduced share count 3.3% in 2023
Increased share repurchase program by $25b to $35.3b
$BABA
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Alphabet trading for a 2019 PE of 20. 15% of the market cap in cash. PE ex cash 17. Earnings could be 10% higher if they didn’t experiment with „other bets“ (which have a value btw). The company is debt free. Growing 20% a year. $goog
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$SE adds a cash a casual $477m in cash in Q2. Almost $2b annualized.
Market cap less cash ($6.5b) is now some $22b
Deep value
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Facebook now at 10x 2021 operating income from family of apps (less cash) 👀 $FB
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Portfolio - May 11:
14% Hellofresh
10% SoftBank
10% Alibaba
10% Facebook
10% Prosus
10% Salesforce
10% Burford
10% Snowflake
5% Peloton
5% Celsius
5% Teladoc
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@Danice777
@0_7_user
@byVNTY
Was sind deine Ratschläge für die Messerfachkräfte und Gruppenvergewaltiger?
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Portfolio as of August 27:
10% $SFTBY
10% $AMZN
10% $CRM
10% $FB
10% $NFLX
10% $HFG
10% $CELH
5% $KAHOT
5% $UPST
5% $PTON
5% $TDOC
5% $Z
5% $SPOT
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Facebook is now…Meta!
Outstanding presentation by Zuck. What a leader. In his prime.
My money is with the 🐐
$FB
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If $BABA ADRs are a worthless piece of paper, why did Alibaba repurchase $9.5 billion worth of it in 2023?
To "rip off" international shareholders?
Your feelings vs the evidence 👆
Alibaba’s share repurchase program still has $11.7 billion left to go as of Dec. 31
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@_FriedrichMerz
Währenddessen kommen weiter Hunderttausende pro Jahr ins Land, nachdem unter Merkel alle Dämme gebrochen sind.
Stürzenberger wurde vom Verfassungschutz beobachtet, der Djihadist nicht. Die Kontrolle ist längst verloren gegangen.
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$META -5% after hours following a narrow miss of expectations by an irrelevant “competitor”
Can’t make this shit up
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China market regulator draft news👇
…at least to me this doesn’t sound like the end of the world for Alibaba and Tencent.
$BABA $TCEHY
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Bring it on $META
ChatGPT is 'not particularly innovative,' and 'nothing revolutionary', says Meta's chief AI scientist by
@TiernanRayTech
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Germany inflation falls to 8.6% in December after 11.3% in November.
10.7% was expected 👀
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Prosus at a 50% discount to NAV this morning. $PRX $TCEHY
Owning some of the finest collection of digital growth companies:
~2/3s Tencent (itself undervalued)
~1/4 private companies (edtech/fintech)
~ 8% cash
…in a market that is otherwise anything but cheap.
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Upstart Q1 will be epic:
• guided for 1.4b revenue this year
• Adjusted net income margin was 26.3% in 2021
-> Forward PE of 17.2
-> 14.0 ex Cash
Short as a % of float was 18% on March 30, but since then share price down 37.5%.
Mark my words: 🔥🔥🔥
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$JD reports Q4 & FY 2023:
• revenue growth 3.6% (1.7% in Q3)
• 2023 free cash flow $5.7b (up 14.3%)
-> 16.9% FCF yield
• announced $3b buyback program (9% of market cap)
• announced $1.2b dividend
-> 3.6% dividend yield
• $27.8b cash and investments vs $34b market cap
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$TLT investors having locked in 4.9% next 25ys when we’re back to ZIRP
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The higher it goes, the more investors want to have it.
At $150 $BABA will be widely considered "de-risked"
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What does Druckenmiller see in Coupang that nobody else seems to see?
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How to grasp the true value of Alibaba?
$BABA
TTM PE of 21.1 is really cheap, sure.
TTM PE ex cash is 18.4, even better.
But: so many valuable business segments that don’t contribute any earnings yet. Just to name a few:
• Lazada
•
• Cloud
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British American Tobacco up 6% on nice 2023 numbers and outlook. With the 10% dividend yield that’s already a satisfying total return.
Basically better growth than Apple at this point. Just that the PE is 6, not 30, and the dividend yield is 10%, not 0.5%
$BTI $BATS.L
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Omg
“There isn’t used-car demand for EVs,” said Matt Harrison, Toyota Motor Corp.’s chief operating officer in Europe. “That’s really hurting the cost-of-ownership story.”
“China offers a cautionary tale. Lucrative subsidies turned the country into an EV giant, but also
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Its funny how $Meta traded down to $88 as investors were throwing the towel based metaverse spending.
Nothing has really changed about reality labs investments except Zuck mentioning it less.
Still, the stock is up 166%.
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New Position - Simon Property Group $SPG:
• 73% Discount to NAV
• 18% Dividend Yield (LTM)
• 26% FFO Yield (70% payout ratio)
• 35% LTV
• Interest coverage ratio: 5.8
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So, $META:
• $40.5b cash end of Q2
• raised $10b via bonds during Q3
• makes some $4-8b FCF per quarter
-> total cash ~$55b at this point?
Cmon and buy back 14% of the company, now!
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„Every time GMV flows from buyer to seller on their platform, Alibaba takes a tiny piece - currently about 4%. That's a pittance compared to eBay's 9%, Amazon Marketplace's 15%, Etsy's 17%, and JD's ~20%…“
$BABA
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So what are the great individual names in small cap space?
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Israel study finds antibodies from natural infection with Covid decrease 5% per month vs 40% per month with biontech.
Quite the significant news IMO and well explains the very concerning data from Israel (huge wave with almost as many deaths as in prior waves)
$BNTX 😬
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Back in Softbank
• discount to NAV ~55% if arm/Nvidia goes through
• Arm on fire, should Nvidia not go through
• $Baba down to ~23% of NAV
• second massive buyback program -> systematic NAV arbitrage = massive shareholder value generation
• Vision funds full of 💎
$SFTBY
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Still all no brainers?
Price / Free Cash Flow (ex stock-based compensation):
• $GOOG: 47
• $FB: 38
• $AAPL: 30
• $AMZN: 91
• $MSFT: 45
How stock-based compensation inflates underlying FCF
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How tiktok has a lot of users but loses money
$META
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How is this not the Nifty50 all over again?
Here are the PE's of some large cap, modest growth names:
$MSFT 37x
$COST 53x
$LLY 56x
$AMZN 50x
$NFLX 45x
$AAPL 30x (negative growth)
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“At current prices around $110 per share, we think Meta Platforms is one of the best investment opportunities we have seen in our careers.”
$META
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20y US treasuries cross 5%.
If this trend continues, the US will be the next Turkey/Argentina/Venezuela…
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If anyone in China copies the AWS/Azure playbook, it’s most likely $BABA
„With the shortage of semiconductors, it’s very hard to get access to a 10,000 GPU [processing] cluster, which Alibaba has.“
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New Position:
Hello Fresh Group $HFG
A great business with a long growth runway at a (very) reasonable valuation.
• trades at 24x 2020 FCF
• guides for 40% growth this year
• 2021 price sales of 2.3
• targets ebitda margins of 15%, up to 20% long term.
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I agree $BABA revenue growth of 5% was somewhat disappointing.
However, with 0.8% deflation in China, this is still 5.8% real growth (or about 8% with normal inflation).
Once China adjusts interest rates and the consumer is more happy to spend cash, I’m confident in LT growth
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Imagine complaining about the lack of a margin of safety when the 40% growth, zero debt, $64bn cash, monopoly that Facebook is trades at a PE of 23.
$FB
...while the SP 500 trades at a PE of 30 and 10y bonds at 1.6%, far less than the inflation rate.
I've identified the source of my discomfort as being a lack of a margin of safety. This is what not having one feels like. Base case, FB does well. But usually I pay prices where things can play out much worse than my base case I still don't lose money. Not the case w FB.
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Tough!
$BABA and $TCEHY back to prices from 3.5ys ago despite compounding earnings like a charm.
Ready to take a few more punches 😬
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2023: the year people realize Meta's moat is bigger than Google’s.
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Imagine the S&P500 trades for a PE of 30 (Nasdaq at 68), but you can get Facebook, growing 33% for a trailing 12 month PE of 26.5 and Alibaba, growing 37%, for a PE of 27.5.
$FB $BABA
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$BABA Q4
• 64% revenue growth (40% ex sun art)
• guides for 30% revenue growth FY22
• cloud computing revenue +37%
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New writeup on HelloFresh $HFG:
Leading Subscription Business Primed for Growth after Expectations Reset
A short-term bounce, a near term upside surprise and a long-term 10x?
Link in bio
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Why own mega-caps such as Tencent, Alibaba or Facebook despite their meanwhile limited potential to grow users?
They can sell additional services to their users with close to zero customer acquisition costs.
$BABA $FB $TCEHY
Microsoft does it since decades, still growing.
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BREAKING
Denmark wants to pay up to 75% of salaries with a maximum of 3.000 Euros if workers would otherwise loose their job due to the corona virus.
Germany will likely introduce similar direct helps + taking over lease payments of SMEs(!)
Hope other countries follow!
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Let that sink, 3.2%.
And that’s with shelter coming in at 8% yoy when it’s in reality 0%
Shelter has a 34% weight in the CPI, so 2.8% of the 3.2% inflation rate is from shelter.
Inflation is alarmingly low in all regards actually
US CPI for June is due on Wednesday this week.
Headline is expected to fall to 3.20% YoY, which would make for the lowest print since March 2021.
The Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan + Truflation all anticipating a similar number 👇
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@JulianAdrat
Linksgrün geht es einfach nur noch darum den Schaden zu maximieren. Bleiben noch 1.5 Jahre. Ich glaub mir wird grad schlecht
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Imagine thinking the world’s most innovative and fastest growing companies will stay out of favor forever.
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$BABA international commerce revenue 1.7b USD this quarter - same as $SE, which has a market cap of $150bn.
$BABA market cap at 550bn here.
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Bitcoin -13.5%
Ethereum -15.9%
Dogecoin -18.9%
If this happened to my stocks, I know I’d buy more. Because fundamentals, you know.
When no more people join the Ponzi scheme and people in the scheme start to leave it...
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Facebook at a forward PE of 16.5(!). $FB
Credit Suisse non consensus estimate has $FB earning $19.70 a share in 2022. It sees continued rollout of shopping which will increase the value of Facebook’s available ad inventory while keeping transactions within the app.
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