Sam Hoppen
@SamHoppen
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@FantasyPros Data Scientist 📊| Formerly @Betsperts & @4for4football Data Analytics Manager 💻| #GoPackGo | Opinions are my own
Chicago, IL
Joined August 2011
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Last Seen Profiles
Pocket QBs this year
Mike White: Ribs
Jimmy G: Broken foot
Matthew Stafford: Neck
Kenny Pickett: Concussion
Ryan Tannehill: Ankle
NOT SUSTAINABLE
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James Cook's rushing yards line was 61.5 yards and he had 67 rushing yards entering the 4th quarter. His final four carries went for:
-4 yards
-3 yards
0 yards
1 yard
Final count: 61 yards
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Atlanta Falcons:
*Use 4th overall pick on pass-catching tight end Kyle Pitts
*Use 8th overall pick on wide receiver Drake London
*Throw 13 times for a combined 6 times to the above two players in favor of giving carries to a 5th-round RB in a full game of a negative game script
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Are you actually a fan of your team if you’re not Pro Bowl voting for your division rival players to further reduce their future cap space?
Players that boosted the value of their 5th-year option with their first Pro Bowl nod:
Penei Sewell
Aidan Hutchinson
Tyler Linderbaum
Kyle Hamilton
Devon Witherspoon
Boosted to the max with a second Pro Bowl nod:
Sauce Gardner
Patrick Surtain II
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How do you put something resembling a lightning bolt on your shoulders when you play IN THE SAME DIVISION as the Chargers???
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Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, two very solid running backs, have a combined cap hit of $2.2M this year.....and you felt the need sign Swift to that much money??
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“It’s very easy to criticize the outcome, but I don’t think it takes away from it being the right decision. Dan Campbell has stayed true to that philosophy from day one, you can’t judge it just because it didn’t work, it’s the reason they got here.”
Greg Olsen is a king 👑
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Ja'Marr Chase's average distance on touchdowns this year is 38.7 yards lmao
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Blackthorne: You simply cannot draft Bowers in the top ten! History dictates that drafting a tight end early is not a recipe for success!! People are suggesting teams could trade up for such a player, which is blasphemous!
Mariko: The Anjin shares thoughts on positional value.
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Joe Flacco (155) still has more pass attempts than Marcus Mariota (150).
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🚨WEEK 1 AIR YARDS LEADERS🚨
1. Tyreek Hill: 237 air yards
2. Keenan Allen: 185
3. AJ Brown: 167
4. Nico Collins: 165
5. Tee Higgins: 149
6. Kendrick Bourne: 138
7. DeAndre Hopkins: 136
8. Puka Nacua: 135
9. Chris Olave: 131
T10. Tutu Atwell/Brandon Aiyuk: 117
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Inspired by
@minakimes
&
@Nate_Tice
's conversation on what each QB needs to improve this season, I built an analytical profile for non-rookie starters looking at their on-target % and EPA/play for various stats and how they compare across the league (data from
@SportsInfo_SIS
).
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My fiancée has brought to my attention that the reason it’s called a “club sandwich” is because club stands for “chicken lettuce under bacon,” which is absolutely blowing my mind right now.
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Coaches to say “it’s not fantasy football” this year are a combined 11-14 so far
Bucs OC Byron Leftwich on his offense's output:
"This Is not fantasy football, this is about winning games all the time, and if you can find a way to win it, that’s all that really matters."
#gobucs
#nflnetwork
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Which running backs have scored the most fantasy football points in the 21st century? I built an animation just to show you!
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Mike McDaniel is a national treasure. I would die for this man
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This is low key one of the more incredible athletic feats I’ve ever seen
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DeMeco Ryans on
@PardonMyTake
: “It doesn’t matter what I wanna do. Who are the players I’m working with? What do they do well? […] Coaching is putting players in position to accentuate their talents.”
Fit your scheme to the players, don’t fit your players to the scheme!
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The last time each team drafted a ____ in the first two rounds:
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“What was it like watching Vikings-Bears on Monday Night Football?”
Me in March:
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DeAndre Hopkins posted this on his Tik Tok last night lmaooooooo
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The final four QBs in the AFC:
*Lamar Jackson
*Josh Allen
*Patrick Mahomes
*CJ Stroud
The final four QBs in the NFC:
*Brock Purdy
*Jared Goff
*Baker Mayfield
*Jordan Love
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I am now officially a Master of Data Science! Well, I’ve at least finished all the classes needed to soon get a piece of paper that says I have a masters degree. 🎓
So, cheers to that!
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I'm not going to pretend like running the ball doesn't add some level of injury risk, but injuries are unpredictable. It also depends on the STYLE of running that a QB does. Lamar has been very good at avoiding hits while Josh Allen will barrel his way through defenders.
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After he suffered his ankle sprain, Mahomes averaged 0.28 EPA/play. So now we can definitively say that Mahomes on one leg is still better than any other quarterback.
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There are several GMs who have done a stellar job setting their teams up for success, most notably Howie Roseman in Philadelphia. But there's one guy I've learned more about recently who has captivated me that I'd like to make the case for Executive of the Year: Brad Holmes 🧵
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Jerry Jeudy has been an absolute world beater against man coverage this year averaging over 6 YPRR against man!
Meanwhile, try to cover Tyreek Hill any way you want and he'll likely beat you.
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Seriously can’t wait for Devontae Booker to score 4.7 points this week
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Man, Greg Olsen is so so good as an announcer! The way he succinctly and accurately explains CPOE (and other advanced statistics) is leagues better than anyone else out there right now.
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Dismissing analytics because it can’t measure something that is, by definition, immeasurable >>>>>>>
Former Steelers GM Kevin Colbert believes the NFL overuses analytics.
#Steelers
"We had analytic people, and I used to challenge them. I said, ‘when you guys can, let me know when you can measure the intangibles."
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Last night, every one of Deebo Samuel's six targets came behind the line of scrimmage, for an average of -5.3 air yards per target.
He still turned that into 66 total receiving yards.
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D'Andre Swift is currently your league leader in high-value touches (carries inside the 10-yard line and receptions) with an average of 7.2/game and has had 5 HVTs in every game this season. Locked and loaded RB1 the rest of the season.
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NFL simultaneously promoting and tying itself to betting while suspending an inactive player for betting is some grade A hypocrisy
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Thor: Ragnarok doesn’t get talked about enough as one of the best movies in the MCU
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🚨 Excited to announce the launch of my new website, ! The site will house several apps for users to evaluate players and situations for fantasy sports! In this thread, I'll introduce each of the tools that I've already built and are ready to use!
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Thinking about this throw this morning and how I was so so wrong about Justin Herbert. Dude is just a stud.
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🚨WEEK 2 AIR YARDS LEADERS🚨
1. Chris Olave (334 air yards)
2. Jaylen Waddle (180)
3. Garrett Wilson (164)
4. Scotty Miller (139)
5. Tyreek Hill (138)
6. Mike Williams (134)
7. Courtland Sutton (133)
8. Corey Davis (132)
9. Mark Andrews (125)
10. Tyler Lockett (118)
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I could not be more thrilled to announce that I'll be joining the
@betsperts
and
@4for4football
team full-time as their Data Analytics Manager! It's surreal that I've been given this opportunity and I cannot wait to help these brands grow! Let the next chapter begin!
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Made a new decision tree for college coaches facing 4th-down decisions in field goal range
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The Falcons have run the ball 81 more times than they’ve thrown the ball and have just 36 more yards doing so lmao
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Some news: this is my final week with Betsperts and 4for4.
With that, next week I will be starting as a Data Scientist with
@FantasyPros
!
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According to
@benbbaldwin
's 4th down model, the Saints have gone for it on fourth down zero times when they should have (at least a 1% WP edge).
Incredible.
People will talk about the Saints punting on 4th and 1 from the Bucs 44, but the other costly mistake was kicking a FG to go from up 10 to up 13 on 4th and 2 from the Bucs 11.
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The majority of What I want
fantasy football the 49ers
jobs to do
🤝
Freelance
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Tonight is a potentially big night in
@PardonMyTake
history. If Washington wins, it would be the first time all PMT teams (Bears, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, and WFT) all won in the same week in the PMT era (since 2016). Six times four of five teams won, but never all five!
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I am loving everything about Justin Fields, on and off the field.
In addition to this, Fields has been vocal as an influencer trying to bring awareness to epilepsy and remove the stigma around it.
It’s hard not to like this guy.
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Antonio Gibson truthers, enjoy your day in the sun, for the Washington Commanders will spoil your fun by taking another back on day two of the draft
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Tom Brady's career and legacy will be known for two things - extraordinary greatness and longevity.
Not sure we'll ever see a career like his in my lifetime. He is the 🐐
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Air yards leaders so far:
1. Tyreek Hill: 231 air yards
2. DJ Chark: 199
3. Ceedee Lamb: 159
4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 156
5. Stefon Diggs: 150
6. Emmanuel Sanders: 159
7. Antonio Brown: 144
8. Brandin Cooks: 132
9. Amari Cooper: 127
10. Anthony Schwartz: 132
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Pete Carroll said Zach Charbonnet was out “indefinitely” with a shoulder injury just 12 days ago and now he’s laying down hits like this lmao
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🚨Week 1 Air Yards Leaders🚨
1. Davante Adams (177 air yards)
2. Brandin Cooks (131)
3. Christian Kirk (128)
4. DJ Chark (124)
5. Jarvis Landry (123)
6. Justin Jefferson (118)
7. Cooper Kupp (116)
8. Michael Pittman (113)
9. Corey Davis (112)
10. Tyreek Hill (109)
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Running back PPR ranks:
1. Derrick Henry (186.5 points)
2. All Ravens RBs combined (138.7)
3. D'Andre Swift (137.3)
4. Jonathan Taylor (131.2)
5. Austin Ekeler (128.8)
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Not being hyperbolic when I say that Saturday was the best day of my life ❤️
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Quarterback passing performance on standard dropbacks (1st or 2nd down, no pressure, not using play action)
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How predictable NFL offensive rushing schemes are (using Shannon entropy) compared to their rushing efficiency (EPA per rush):
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Lots of terrific performances today but let’s appreciate greatness while we still have it: Greg Olsen talking about situational football
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Recently I've gotten several questions on how I learned to code and which resources I've found useful. So, for those interested, here's a short thread of recommendations that I have. I code primarily in R (which doesn't mean I hate Python) so most of these will be R-focused.
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Sean Payton is splitting multiple tight ends out wide instead of using Marvin Mims
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With DraftKings releasing NFL win totals today, I took a look at each team's strength of schedule based on these implied win percentages.
The Patriots, Bills, and Chiefs have the toughest schedules while the non-Bucs NFC South teams have the easiest schedules.
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Made a special version of my YOLO ball chart to feature
@minakimes
based on the conversation from the video below.
By my criteria, Josh Allen has the third-most YOLO throws with 25 this year!
NEW POD!
@Foxworth24
and I discussed:
-Was the Eagles loss a fluke?
-F it, Justin down there somewhere
-The Raiders' lost season
-YOLO Josh Allen is back--and Domonique explains why (below)
Listen and subscribe:
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@Peter_Bukowski
I get your point, but you don't think Herbert's rib injuries impacted his play?
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The Chargers continuing to play their starters in a meaningless game:
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Really, really liked this way of evaluating efficiency with timeout usage from Steven.
Kliff Kingsbury was horrendous at play calling out of timeouts...
The margins are thin in the playoffs and every edge matters, so with the postseason kicking off this weekend I wrote about how NFL coaches use timeouts and which ones do it best according to the numbers.
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Ah yes, noted Bills homer and non-objective writer Aaron Schatz!
The people hating (which has gone too far) on Aaron's vote are acting like the conversation all year wasn't about how nobody stood out as a clear MVP candidate this year. How frequently the odds changed in the
Stephen A. Smith calls out the one voter who didn't give Lamar Jackson a first-place MVP vote.
"That was a stupid homer vote by that individual, probably scared to go back in the locker room if he had voted against Josh Allen. That compromises everything. You have to be
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18 months ago,
@UnderdogFantasy
did not exist. Now they've released the 6+ best ball tournament this year, the interface is top tier, the fanbase is rabid and loyal, and they listen to feedback and requests from users. Truly the gold standard in fantasy gaming.
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Here's what things look like for the top four players on each team so far this season
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Started my coding career two years ago today. Since the I have:
-Started a Master's in Data Science program
-Built several online tools
-Created too many charts
-Got a full-time job in data analytics
Suffice to say this has been one of the best professional decisions I've made.
One of my offseason and new year goals was to teach myself some coding so I could do more in-depth analysis for my NFL writing. While it’s fairly simple, here’s my first product! This shows pass % in neutral game scripts (score differential plus or minus 7 points) from 2019.
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NBC running an ad to share the success of the Peacock viewership numbers
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This is painfully ignorant. Mental illnesses rarely show themselves on the surface and can be impossible to detect from an outsiders perspective. It’s great to see Simmons back, but that doesn’t mean he’s 100%. You NEVER know what someone else is going through.
So much for Ben Simmons mental illness. Amazing how that was just fine once he got traded. Insulting to those that really suffer.
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Ertz going to Arizona is a little redundant because there’s already a lot of dust in the desert
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Setting a reminder for Christmas this year…
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┏┓
┃┃╱╲ in
┃╱╱╲╲ this
╱╱╭╮╲╲house
▔▏┗┛▕▔
╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲
BLT is a sandwich and BAL a team abbreviation
╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲
▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔
Official NFL team abbreviations (via the official NFL Rulebook)
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Looking through some
#F1
overtake data and Sergio Perez has had a phenomenal year so far, getting overtaken just ONCE all year!
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I love using expected fantasy points as a way to measure a player's workload because it more heavily weights the valuable opportunities that a player gets. Here are the leaders in expected fantasy points for each team from Week 1 (min 5 EP).
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If you’re looking for a WR1 in Detroit, his name is Quintez Cephus. Back-to-back weeks with 6+ targets and a touchdown.
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Have gotten a number of questions lately asking about tutorials for learning how to code and how to improve data science skills, so I put together a quick thread highlighting a couple of things I think are key along with some resources to help if you're looking for them! 🏈📊💻
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How concentrated is each team's passing attack? This chart shows the combined target share of each team's top three targeted players.
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Using
@Stat_Ron
's NFL WAR modeling, I calculated WAR for each of the four skill positions for the 2022 regular season using the EPA-based model. Keep in mind that this *only* uses public play-by-play data.
Starting off with QBs, your league MVP reigns supreme.
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