Rustam Jamilov
@RustamJamilov
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Postdoctoral Research Fellow at All Souls College, @UniofOxford | Economics
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Joined March 2009
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Pinned Tweet
New paper on estimating the EIS with the great Martin, Plamen, and Marek! We study the unique 2006 Norwegian dividend tax reform and find that the EIS of is greater than 1. Detailed thread by Martin below 👇
How do owners respond to capital taxes? Or - what is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS)?
In a new paper with
@RustamJamilov
,
@MarekJasin
, and
@ptnenov
, we revisit this important question.
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My graduate macroeconomics topics course "Heterogeneous Agents in Macroeconomics" just finished.
All teaching materials are here:
Comments and suggestions for future years are welcome!
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📢New Paper📢
"The Regional Keynesian Cross"
- with
@m_bellifemine
and
@AdriCouturier
How does monetary policy operate across regions? We provide a theoretical and empirical investigation.
Link:
A thread🧵1/N
#EconTwitter
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Just presented a brand new paper "A Modern History of Inflation as Conflict" with Friedrich Geiecke (LSE) in Hong Kong. Is conflict inflation? We build a novel index of price conflict over 1852-2023 and provide the first, extensive macro-historical support for the theory.
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Last year I read Ernestine Friedl's "Women and Men: An Anthropologist's View" and am writing a paper on the disposable men hypothesis in a general-equilibrium macroeconomic setting. Here is an abstract. Comments welcome, especially from anthropologists and socioloists!
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I am delighted and humbled to be elected for a 5-year Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship at All Souls College,
@UniofOxford
.
Excited to also become part of the Economics Department
@OxfordEconDept
.
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It is economics job market season. People are writing ``advice threads'' to candidates. For what it's worth, here is my grumpy two cents:
1. Be kind to your advisors, staff, admin. Job market candidates are annoying. You are annoying. Remember that and be patient and nice.
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I will be teaching a new topics in macro course for Oxford graduate students this Fall. Each week, I will cover a "unit" and break the representative agent assumption. Four units: households, firms, banks, regions. Bonus: granularity. Next year, I will add gender and sectors.
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Overhaul of our "Bewley Banks" paper with Tommaso. Summary: a micro-consistent, quantitative framework for business cycle analysis with bank heterogeneity and market power in the credit and deposit markets. Think Gertler-Kiyotaki meets Krusell-Smith. Link:
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🚩Job Market Paper Alert🚩I develop a tractable framework with heterogeneous banks, imperfect financial competition, default risk, and endogenous entry which I use to match the distribution of US bank leverage and quantify targeted, bank-level economic policies
#EconTwitter
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The first draft of "Granular Sentiments" with the great Alex Kohlhas, Sasha Talavera, and Mao Zhang has just dropped!
Summary: we connect Gabaix's granular hypothesis with Pigouvian business cycles.
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The time has come. Model is mostly done. Draft dropping at some point this Summer.
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A preliminary conference draft of my paper on DEI policies in general equilibrium. I introduce the notion of a “DEI multiplier” in a tractable two-agent macro model. I find that the multiplier is generally positive in the U.S.
Comments are welcome!
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📢 New paper 📢
Social Capital and Monetary Policy
Link:
Comments welcome!
#EconTwitter
Summary thread 1/n
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Very pleased to see our paper "The Anatomy of Cyber Risk" (with
@helene_rey
and
@tahoun100
) referenced in The Economist's front story
@economist
!
Cyber-attacks threaten the health of an increasingly digital global economy. To stop the ransomware pandemic, start with the basics. Our cover this week
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Revised version of "Granular Credit Risk" is available online. Now with factor analysis and heterogeneous loadings in the granular instrument, international comparison of exposure concentration, and a lot more.
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I will be presenting a new paper "𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐲𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤" (with
@helene_rey
and
@tahoun100
) on March 23 at the
@ecb
-
@RevOfFinStudies
Macro-Finance Conference.
𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲: worldwide exposure to cyber risk is rising alarmingly fast.
#EconTwitter
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Presented some very exciting new work with the great Alex Kohlhas, Sasha Talavera, and Mao Zhang for the Oxford macroeconomics group. Summary: Angeletos meets Gabaix 🤝. Draft will be dropping soon! 💪
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Me: I defended my thesis and am now a serious scholar of science.
5yo daughter: cool story bro
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2. Relationships (professional or personal) over everything else. Take mental note of everyone who is helping you at your most vulnerable state. Stick to those people and keep them around yourself for the rest of your life. Be loyal, always. Remember where you came from.
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Official, confirmed. Thrilled that today All Souls College has elected an Economist to the Fellowship by Examination. The "world's hardest exam" has been conquered by an economist once again, for the first time in many years.
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Just found out that my paper "Social Capital and Monetary Policy" was mentioned by the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland back in February 2023:
Paper:
Slides from my Harvard seminar:
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Overhaul of "The Anatomy of Cyber Risk" with Helene and Ahmed. We build a novel text-based firm-level quarterly measure of cyber risk exposure for many firms, countries, and years. Gravity model of global cyber, option markets, topical indices, etc. Link:
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Join tomorrow at the
@virtualmacrosem
where I will present my work on the incompatibility of financial efficiency, competition, and stability: the banking industry trilemma.
#EconTwitter
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Unsolicited advice to job market candidates😌
Don't forget that you actually wanted to be a theoretical physicist. You read somewhere that Roberto Barro switched to economics from physics. You thought that you could follow Roberto Barro. You are not Roberto Barro.
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It was a pleasure to see our paper "Monetary Unions with Heterogeneous Fiscal Space" with the great
@m_bellifemine
and
@AdriCouturier
presented at the recent NBER ISoM in Basel. Detailed thread coming soon.
Draft:
Slides:
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Couldn't be more excited with this year's Economics Nobel. Banks and financial crises. Huge congratulations to Bernanke, Diamond, and Dybvig - three giants of our profession. Gertler and Kiyotaki - also instrumental for the topic. A great day for micro-consistent macro-banking!
BREAKING NEWS:
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig “for research on banks and financial crises.”
#NobelPrize
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In Baku for the first time in many years. While my Dropbox is synching, decided to write up a practical guide to Baku for colleagues/friends who are considering it as their next travel destination.
So, a nerd-friendly guide to Baku.
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As was suggested to me by someone I respect, let me clarify my earlier retweet. It was not at all intended to refute the original tweet. I convoluted several separate arguments together and didn't communicate right.
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Just finished watching "Dark" on Netflix. It's nice that they finally made a show about sequence space Jacobians. The past influences the future. The future influences the past. Everything is connected. 😌
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Pleasure to have our paper "Granular Credit Risk" (with
@helene_rey
,
@RJuelsrud
, Sigurd Galaasen) presented at NBER SI Risks of Financial Institutions session. Big thanks to organizers Mark Carey and Rene Stulz, and to Ralph Koijen for a great discussion.
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Just presented at the VMACS Junior Conference. Fantastic lineup in the session and overall. Thanks a lot to the organizers -
@KyleDempsey1
,
@eli_gnn
,
@HeejeongKimEcon
,
@elpuntoderocio
,
@Simon_Mongey
,
@and_joy_
, Omar Rachedi,
@ChristianKWolf
for including me in the program!
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A must read on climate change risk, financial stability, and macro-prudential policy. Observing the Green Swans by
@helene_rey
@ProSyn
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If you are attending "Theories and Methods in Macro" (T2M) on May 2-3 in Amsterdam then make sure to attend Marco Bellifemine's presentation of HBANK. He will present in Tim Landvoigt's session on advances in macro-finance.
For this year's edition Tim Landvoigt (
@Wharton
) is organizing a session on
📣Advances in Macro-Finance.📣
Join us in Amsterdam in May! Send your paper until February 15.
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3. Try to be general. Take not 1 but 10 steps back and look at your work. Economics is already a very niche field. Most likely, you are working on a sub-topic of a sub-topic in a sub-field of a sub-field. Try to relate to a bigger audience than just 5 people in the world.
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Too generous imo. The average person doesn’t know what inflation means. And 15% of Americans think that Federal Reserve is a national park.
Macroeconomists: Since rational expectations is second nature to us, it’s easy to forget that the average person probably just fits an ARMA model to predict next year’s inflation.
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Norges Bank is recruiting PhD interns. Make sure to apply or spread the word. This is a fantastic opportunity to work at a first-class institution with very nice people! I enjoyed my time at the NB greatly and learnt a lot.
Hei
#EconTwitter
! Norges Bank is now recruiting PhD Interns for 2022. Interns made a fantastic contribution to our unit during the last 10 years! Check the details here: …and it will be in person 😃
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@IvanWerning
11 yrs ago I was translating for Finn Kydland in Baku. A local politician asked which school of thought Kydland belonged to. FK said something like good scholars think about questions, not schools. The local said it was a wrong approach, to which FK replied it worked out for him.
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4. Do not play games. If you are lucky enough to receive >1 offer, do not ``leverage'' offers or sit on them hoping to climb up the ladder. Be honourable. There are people on waiting lists and you are screwing them over by being greedy. Just get it over with and write papers.
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Revise and resubmit, reject and resubmit, rewrite and resubmit, rethink and rewrite.
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This picture should be sobering to anyone convinced that we have reattained price stability.
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Our paper "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution using Dividend Tax News Shocks" with
@BlomhoffHolm
,
@ptnenov
, and
@MarekJasin
is featured as the June '24 business tax paper of the month at the Oxford Centre for Business Taxation.
Link:
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Don't miss Alex's presentation of "Granular Sentiments" next week at the ASSA meetings.
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The Anatomy of Cyber Risk (with
@helene_rey
and
@tahoun100
) is out. Comments are welcome!
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP16217
The Anatomy of Cyber Risk
Rustam Jamilov
@RustamJamilov
@LBS
, Hélène Rey
@helene_rey
@LBS
, Ahmed Tahoun
@LBS
#CEPR_FE
,
#CEPR_IMF
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Motivated by the growing interest in the Rowthorn conjecture, led by Lorenzoni and Werning. Their paper is here:
Our first draft, slides, and thread coming over the next few weeks once we get certain clearances.
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Big congratulations to
@Federomei1
for winning this year’s ERC grant! The theme of the funded project will be heterogeneity in macroeconomics. A great day for
@UniofOxford
and
@OxfordEconDept
So pleased for my wonderful colleague
@Federomei1
that her work (some with my other wonderful colleague
@sergiodieffe
and also
@SorryToBeKurt
) has been supported by
@ERC_Research
- excellent for this research agenda on heterogeneity in macro. 🎉🍾👏🏻
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Mishel Ghassibe is excellent. Make sure to look into his profile. He can do empirics, theory, quantitative, computational, policy- very smart, multidimensional macroeconomist.
🎉Meet our 2021 Job Market Candidates!
Mishel is a macroeconomist, with a specific focus on implications of production networks & goods market frictions for monetary & fiscal policies.
Learn about Mishel & all our job market candidates 👉
#EconJobMarket
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AI-generated text is fascinating. My prompt was "Why did I become an economist?" And InferKit produced this beauty.
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Congratulations to
@JavierBianchi7
and
@SakiBigio
! This is a phenomenal paper.
Thrilled to see our paper coming out with
@SakiBigio
Standard macro models assume the central bank controls a single interest rate that guides all saving/borrowing decisions of all agents.
But the target rate for the Fed and many central banks is the interbank market rate.
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Great thread about
#passportinequality
- an often overlooked friction that presents substantial material costs for young scholars. Yet another reason why at least some conferences should try to keep the hybrid option: for those with young dependents or visa challenges.
Since we are celebrating APSA in Montreal and Vancouver, here is a story about how academics from the global south struggle with visa problems.
In 2019, I went to the SIOE conference in Stockholm. At that point, I was a postdoc at Oxford.
I am Turkish, so I need a visa.👇
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An absolute delight having dinner with Joseph Stiglitz at All Souls and having him around for the next few weeks. Ridiculously knowledgable and such a nice person to talk to.
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A fascinating research project in the intersection of history, economics, and politics. Enjoyed reading about it this afternoon. Project website is . Make sure to check it out and cite all of the authors’ papers.
Always wanted to know more about this. Sound £879,525 taxpayer investment.
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Enormous thank you to my advisor,
@helene_rey
, for the invaluable and continuous support and guidance. Also big thanks to Richard Portes,
@EliasPapaioann2
,
@monacelt
,
@ProfAndrewScott
,
@VStavrakeva
,
@josebammartinez
as well as everyone else at
@LBS
and
@Wheeler_LBS
.
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@pablo_guerron
In reduced-form, yes their equity-based leverage constraint is very convenient, especially for countercyclical amplification. For book-based constraints Adrian-Shin-Boyarchenko is the way to go for boom-bust cycles. Begenau-Bigio-etal: unifying theory of book and market leverage.
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Delighted to have
@S_Stantcheva
present her paper "Eliciting People's First-Order Concerns: Text Analysis of Open-Ended Survey Questions" at University of Oxford's International Multimodal Communication Centre. Great presentation followed by a very interesting discussion!
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@JohnHolbein1
@Jonheathcote
On the other hand, young adults who self select into PhD programs also tend to be on average deep thinkers and solitude-oriented, which increases likelihood of depression. An interesting counterfactual could be to look at PhD dropouts or those who move to industry
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Me to daughter: "Great swimming session today. Good progress. This is what champion girls do. Stay focused. Determined. Patient. Greatness awaits."
Daughter: "you know if you fart under water you can make bubbles"
🤦♂️🤣
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Excellent program. Confirmation that we live in the golden age of macroeconomics research. So many ideas, frameworks, datasets. Exciting times.
I am happy to announce the program for the 2023 Minnesota Macro workshop.
I love the papers that we were able to accept. The only problem is that we were not be able to include many awesome papers. In fact, we had over 200 submissions for only 14 slots…
@a_auclert
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Congratulations to
@drkaenzig
of
@LBS
for winning the ECB Forum's young economist competition! Diego is on the job market this year.
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I will be re-reading Diamond and Dybvig (1983) tomorrow. Should be relevant for Monday morning.
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McDonald's is latest global company to be targeted by a cyber attack. CEO: "We are getting sucker-punched in cyberspace". A good time to read our paper "The Anatomy of Cyber Risk" and learn about determinants and consequences of cyber risk!
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A useful character to remember is Bretschneider from Jaroslav Hasek's novel "The Good Soldier Svejk". He is a secret agent who goes around pretending to dislike the Austrian Emperor, encourages political dissent, fakes mutiny, and reports suspects to the police to get arrested.
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SVB is a stark example of concentration risk in banking. In a working paper “Granular Credit Risk” (with Galaasen, Juelsrud, and Rey) we study similar problems using Norwegian data. Stay tuned for a major revision coming soon!
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Make sure to check out Diego’s work on putting the price on carbon. A great paper on a first-order topic. Diego is on the job market this year!
#EconTwitter
As the COP26 summit heads into overtime, let me take this opportunity to tell you a bit more about my job market paper:
"𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴"
JMP link:
#EconTwitter
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An awesome and elegant paper. Two quick thoughts. First, sudden disruptions to automation (cyber attack, operational disaster risk) are then disproportionally affecting the endogenously wealthy, thus having a direct effect on inequality.
📉UNEVEN GROWTH📈– Automation’s Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality, w
@ben_moll
@pascualrpo
A brand new & improved version of our paper out today
@nberpubs
:
Main idea + key results (thread): 🤖🧵
(tagging some whose great work we draw on🙏)
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Congratulations to my amazing wife Jamila Jamilova on her new role as Solutions Architect at AWS!
#amazonwebservices
#aws
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Very honoured to be selected to attend the next Lindau Meeting in Economic Sciences! Many thanks to my home institution for support.
@lindaunobel
@LBS
#LINOecon
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When I was a Bocconi undergrad student, I once spent two weeks in Florence. I loved every aspect of my two weeks in Florence.
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Congratulations to Dean and
@PabloDerasmo
! Great paper.
How do regulatory policies applied post 2008-crisis affect banking market structure, stability, and allocative efficiency? A new model of banking industry dynamics with imperfect competition consistent with U.S. data is proposed to address this question
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Could be useful
@MESandbu
!
@MarkusEconomist
@dandolfa
@toniwhited
@DirkNiepelt
@piazzesi
@haralduhlig
@JavierBianchi7
@Lagos_R_
@SakiBigio
The paper is called "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy". Here is the link again
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Cool. Right after CR snubbed Coca-Cola, their value fell by $4bn. Good way to think about the market price of influencers and social networks with high frequency identification. Also, other celebrities may follow CR's lead, so this is a lower bound.
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This playbook is useful but seems like a safe path towards becoming a great RA, not necessarily a great scholar. Scholarship is being able to juggle literatures, not just understanding them.
If you're in a top-10-ish US undergrad, there is a playbook which still gets you a good shot at top-10 econ PhD programs straight out of undergrad
(I think it's extremely unfair that this essentially only works for top US programs, but, info is info)
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@AdriCouturier
is getting ready to present “The Regional Keynesian Cross”, with
@m_bellifemine
who is also here, at the
#SED2023
.
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This is a great opportunity for PhD students to present!
@LBS
@Wheeler_LBS
The grad students at
@OxfordEconDept
are organizing once again the
@NuCampEconomics
Virtual PhD Conference.
Excellent opportunity for macro students to present their work, with great keynote speakers! Submit soon.
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Spotted yellow bananas in a UK supermarket. We may have been ripening bananas at home for the past 5 years. We may be back to ripening bananas at home tomorrow and for years to come. But today - we feast.
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Glad to see economists embracing Mastodon, one of my favourite heavy metal bands😌
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On return plane from Salento to Heathrow. Smart captain announces he discovered faulty brakes. 3hr delay. Everyone huffing and puffing, complaining and laughing at his accent. Woman next to me hasn’t eaten in 5(!) hours. I agree. He should just YOLO it; who needs brakes to land?
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An impressive paper on the “Green Multiplier” by a job market candidate from Cambridge
@HasnaZeina
. Novel data, nice identification, and a general equilibrium model carefully taken to granular data - broad skillset, complete macro package.
The brilliant
@HasnaZeina
(
@CamEcon
@Selwyn1882
) is on the
#Econjobmarket
. If you haven't already, make sure you check out her wonderful JMP "The Grass Is Actually Greener on the Other Side: Evidence on Green Multipliers from the UnitedStates"
#EconTwitter
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Exceptionally interesting
#LINOEcon
#LINOSD
session today by
@lindaunobel
on
#corona
and the economy. Enlightening policy advice by A. Banerjee, P. Diamond, E. Duflo, B. Holmstrom, M. Kremer, R. Shiller, J. Tirole. Also superb talk by A. Deaton on the pandemic and inequality.
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Literature: Blossoming new lit. on financial frictions and heterogeneity in macro. Coimbra-
@helene_rey
, Corbae-
@PabloDerasmo
, Lee-
@RalphLuet
-
@MortenORavn
,
@JavierBianchi7
-
@SakiBigio
, RiosRull-Takamura-Terajima, Begenau-
@SakiBigio
-Majerovitz-Vieyra, Boissay-Collard-Smets, etc
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Either Goldin (gender, inequality) or Kreps (dynamic choice, uncertainty)
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Presented at
#Azerbaijan
's Mingachevir State University - vibrant research community. Great potential. Institutional support. Economists, programmers, historians. Many research ideas. To help grow and develop the local academic community - in my plans for the next 25 years.
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The job market takes longer than you think it would but then it happens faster than you thought it could.
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A relevant article for the ongoing coup attempt. Waiting to see a paper that estimates the impact of the Capitol lockdown and intensity of protests on returns and valuations of firms which are connected to the Republican party somehow: "The Price of Democracy"
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Big congratulations to my amazing wife for publishing her very first technical solo-authored AWS blog post less than a year after starting the job! This is a huge accomplishment and she had to overcome many challenges in order to realize her plan. Immense…
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