Galo Nuño
@NunoGalo
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Head of the Monetary Policy Division, @BancoDeEspana . Visiting @BIS_org . Fellow @cepr_org and @CESifoNetwork . Research associate @CEMFInews . Views are my own.
Basel, Switzerland
Joined November 2020
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Pinned Tweet
How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy?
Many economists will think of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), but in a new paper we consider an alternative possibility.
Join me in a trip to the stars
🧵 1/n (n=12)
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Who are the winners and losers from inflation?
This may seem a well-established issue in Economics, but surprisingly, there is still some confusion among pundits, central bankers, and academics. A short-🧵that I hope clarifies certain issues
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2K
Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian models (HANKs) are at the forefront of research in monetary economics.
What do we know about optimal monetary policy in these models? How does household/firm/bank heterogeneity affect MP design?
A short (personal and technical) 🧵
1/12
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745
I am happy to announce that our paper "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution" has been conditionally accepted for publication at
@ecmaEditors
This paper makes some innovations that I hope will have a durable impact on macro
A short 🧵 1/7
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Central bankers often talk about the natural rate as a structural feature of the economy, dependent on factors such as demographics, productivity...
What if monetary policy itself affects the natural rate?
A 🧵 based on a new paper
1/n (n=8)
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How do asset purchases by central banks work?
Duration risk extraction is typically considered the key channel, but it is hard to square with the European experience during the Covid outbreak.
A short thread🧵:
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How does monetary policy interact with debt sustainability? Is sovereign default possible in a country issuing debt in its own currency? Is it desirable?
A short thread based on a forthcoming paper in the Journal of the European Economic Association
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Recent work by
@R2Rsquared
,
@GitaGopinath
@skalemliozcan
, or
@VicoVanasco
has found that a decline in real rates increases misallocation. What does it mean for the conduct of monetary policy?
A short thread🧵:
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245
Hey
#EconTwitter
, if anyone is interested in learning new computational techniques to cope with heterogeneity and nonlinearity in macroeconomics, come and join Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and me at the online
@CEMFInews
Summer School
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The paper can be found here
@ClodinFF
,
@alvaroortiz1968
,
@TomasaRodrigo
are (some) of my amazing co-authors.
Comments are welcome!
@glviolante
@COdendahl
@ChristianKWolf
@Claudia_Sahm
@ben_moll
@MortenORavn
@ChalleEdouard
@FlorinBilbiie
@AlisdairMcKay
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I’m glad to announce that, starting this August, I’ll be visiting the
@BIS_org
for one year. That would be an amazing opportunity to interact with the great team of economists there.
I’m grateful to B. Mojón, F. De Fiore, and
@marco_jacopo
for their support.
5
2
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Job alert! We have several research positions for PhD research economists at
@BancoDeEspana
.
One of them (finance) is in my division.
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Are you in the
@EconJobMarket
this year? Are you passionate about monetary policy/macroeconomics? Apply to the Monetary Policy Division
@BancoDeEspana
! A short thread (about the job)
2
30
130
Both camps have a point. In recent work with colleagues at
@BancoDeEspana
and
@BBVAResearch
, we try to quantify the overall effect of the different channels through which inflation affects households' wealth.
There are 3 channels:
Inflation redistributes from creditors to debtors — not exactly a burden on the bottom half of the income distribution 2/
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Are you interested in the use of machine learning in macro? Then come and join us next week!
Happy to participate next week in the Advance Analytics:New Methods for MacroPolicy Conference jointly by Bank of England-European Central Bank-UCL(Daff).Lecture by J.F. Villaverde &
@BancoDeEspana
participation included
@NunoGalo
@BoE_Research
@ecb
@EconUCL
@BBVAResearch
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Are you interested in (i) continuous-time methods (ii) deep learning (iii) frontiers in macroeconomics?
Then apply to the Summer course in Advanced Methods in macro taught by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and myself!
We cover methods and applications, foundations and codes...
Applications for the CEMFI Summer School 2023 are welcome.
The deadline for application is 9 June.
Detailed information about the courses, some in person and others online, is available here 👇
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Sovereign debt markets are huge. Treasuries issue bonds at several maturities.
Why? Which is the optimal way to do it?
We are talking about a lot of money for the taxpayers.
A short 🧵 based on a paper with
@SakiBigio
and
@juanpassadore
1/n (n=10)
1
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Did central banks contribute to the increase in natural rates and inflation expectations? Check out our new
@voxeu
column!
1
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Do you know what a quantum annealer is? Probably not.
But in a recent paper, my dear Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Isaiah Hull show that they can be used to solve dynamic programming problems quite efficiently
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On the one hand, you have several central bankers stating that "recent inflation has hurt especially the poor, as they consume more energy and food".
On the other hand, academics like
@paulkrugman
, make the point that "Inflation redistributes from creditors to debtors "
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- Middle-aged people (36-45), especially low-income ones, were mainly unaffected (in relative terms) by inflation, being nominal debtors (-0.9% loss as a % of income).
-Old people (>65), especially low-income ones, were the most affected (-12.7% loss as a % of income)
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💵New paper alert💵 "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound" (joint work with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Jöel Marbet and Omar Rachedi) (1/n)
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1. The Fisher channel. Inflation redistributes wealth from (nominal) creditors to debtors.
If I have 10,000 € in cash, a 10% inflation reduces their real value by 10%.
Already studied by
@mdoepke
, M. Schneider,
@klaus_adam
, F. Palloti...
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Very cool stuff: using Deep learning to solve dsge models.
With my colleagues at the BCL, we have just released a short paper on how to solve **economic models** using **deep learning techniques**:
👉
#EconTwitter
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A menudo en
@Twitter
se producen acalorados debates sobre temas de política monetaria: ¿Como se crea el dinero? ¿ Cual es la función del
@ecb
? ¿Porque suben los tipos de interés o la inflación? ¿Qué son las stablecoins?
¿Sabes cómo se transmiten las decisiones sobre los
#tiposdeinter
és del
@ecb
a la economía real? Te lo explicamos en nuestra nueva sección sobre
#pol
íticamonetaria. Echa un vistazo 👀
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La inflación no deja a nadie indiferente.
Mi primera entrada en
@nadaesgratis
! Un pequeño sueño cumplido. Gracias a los editores
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1. The Fisher and nominal income channels dominate: they are one order of magnitude larger than the relative consumption channel.
2. While the loss in purchasing power due to nominal income affected all people, the net nominal positions vary a lot: young people are debtors.
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This is a great paper, which opens the door to all kind of new applications
🚨How can we use machine learning techniques to solve and estimate HANK models?🚨
We updated our paper on estimating nonlinear HANK with neural networks.
Now with a first set of example codes for our method! Check out
@HannoKase
and
@LeonardoMelosi
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Are you doing research on the macro impact of artificial intelligence? The apply to this conference jointly organized by
@ecb
ChaMP and
@BancoDeEspana
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Amazing news!
The latest Fiscal Monitor of
@IMFNews
analyzes the heterogeneous impact of inflation on households. It relies on the analytical framework that we introduced in this paper
It is great to feel that our job can be useful for policy analysis
Just released: Chapter 2 of the April 2023 edition of the Fiscal Monitor on “Inflation and Disinflation: What Role for Fiscal Policy?” Read the full chapter at:
#IMFpublications
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Thanks a lot to
@luigiiov
,
@Basile_G
,
@d_sergeyev
and everyone else at
@bocconi
for an amazing day
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We quantify the overall effect of these three channels in a simple formula.
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I'm glad that you raised this issue. I find it absolutely mind-blowing. Is it a problem of macro referees (us!) that are tougher than colleagues in other sub-fields? Is there any editorial bias against macro? (if so, why?) Is it an issue about a lower supply of papers?
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2. Nominal income channel. Wages/pensions/unemployment benefits are infrequently updated (typically at an annual rate). Inflation erodes their real value.
After a 10% inflation rate, an annual 30,000 € salary purchases 10% fewer goods.
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Submit to our new conference on monetary policy transmission! It's going to be H-U-G-E!
Call for Papers: Submit your work on monetary policy transmission in the euro area for the Inaugural Conference of the ESCB Research Network on Monetary Transmission (ChaMP), taking place in Frankfurt in April 2024 1/3
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This paper addresses key issues that everyone working in HA models should be aware of.
New Working Paper! 🥁
Coauthored with Alexandre Gaillard, Christian Hellwig, Philipp Wangner. We show that the canonical macro model is theoretically & quantitatively unable to match the data on top tail inequality for consumption, labor income, wealth, and capital income. 1/14
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This paper opens the door to new ways to estimate HANK models using neural networks. Highly recommended
Can machine learning techniques be used to solve and estimate HANK models?
In a new paper, joint with
@HannoKase
and
@LeonardoMelosi
, we propose an approach based on neural networks to estimate a nonlinear HANK model with idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty.
Short🧵below
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Are you interested in the heterogeneous costs of inflation? Join me tomorrow in this
@cepr_org
seminar!
📆 16 June 2023 @ 14:00 BST 📆
The next CEPR Household Finance Seminar is welcoming
@NunoGalo
@BancoDeEspana
presenting the paper "The Heterogeneous Impact of Inflation on Households’ Balance Sheets"
➡️ Register:
📎Link to paper:
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Many observers worry that the current monetary policy tightening may be hurting long-term growth prospects. What is the link between monetary policy, TFP and capital misallocation? Check out our new
@voxeu
column!
This
@voxeu
column argues that monetary policy can affect aggregate productivity through the allocation of capital
🔗
@cepr_org
@IMFNews
@BancoDeEspana
@ecb
@ECB_Research
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Come and join Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and me to learn about deep learning, continuous-time methods, and heterogeneous-agent models!
Course on Advanced Numerical Methods in Macroeconomics
@CEMFIsumschool
Poster of the CEMFI Summer School 2022
The deadline for applications is 10 June
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Thrilled to see our new
@voxeu
column on the heterogeneous impact of inflation on households balance sheets.
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We then quantify them for the case of Spain in 2021, which experienced (like other countries) an unexpected surge in inflation in 2021.
We use both public surveys (EPF and EFF) and proprietary data from
@BBVAResearch
.
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Interested in machine learning applications to solve large scale dynamic programming problems in macro and finance? Come and join us in this webinar!
On Friday March 25 at 11AM EDT / 5PM CET
@AMLEDS
Webinar: Victor Duarte (UIUC) will present "
#MachineLearning
Methods for
#Economic
and Financial Modelling"
#EconTwitter
#BigData
#statstwitter
#finance
#econometrics
#webinar
Please register @
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If you are around at the
#SED2024
, come to see the great session on fiscal policy and heterogeneity! my amazing coauthor
@rolfcampos
will present our new paper on HANK, r*, and monetary policy.
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If there are 2 goods equally consumed in the CPI basket, one increases by 20% and the other by 0% (10% CPI), the inflation perceived by people consuming more (or less) than the good will NOT be 10%.
People should then devote more or fewer resources to keep consumption unchanged
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The paper has more cool features, and here you have all the codes (including a tutorial for the basic Krusell-Smith economy).
It has been a great experience working with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Samuel Hurtado
7/7
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I’m thrilled that our paper Monetary Policy and Sovereign Debt Sustainability is finally published at
@JEEA_News
. We are grateful to the editor and referees. This is the working paper
0
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A summary of our work on r*
This
@voxeu
column reviews the evidence regarding natural rate dynamics after the COVID-19 pandemic.
👉In both advanced and emerging market economies,
👉estimates of the natural rate have edged up
@cepr_org
@BIS_org
@unil
@CESifoNetwork
@ecb
@jasonfurman
@JustinWolfers
@PIIE
1
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0
6
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Muchas gracias. Nos centraremos en (i) la aplicación de redes neuronales para resolver problemas de programación dinámica de alta dimensionalidad; y (ii) el uso de métodos de tiempo continuo y redes neuronales para resolver modelos con agentes heterogéneos y shocks agregados.
Se viene un nuevo curso del
@bcentralchile
, que dicta Fernandez-Villaverde
@Penn
y
@NunoGalo
@BancoDeEspana
sobre "Advanced Numerical Methods in Macroeconomics". Será en español y online. 🔥💥⚡️
Porfa ayuden a difundir 🙏 ☺️
Inscripciones hasta 6 enero:
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This paper will undoubtedly become quite influential, as it addresses in a very elegant way a key issue, namely the Impact of shocks on different people from a welfare perspective.
Many say inflation is progressive because inflation erodes the real value of nominal debt: the poor borrow and the rich save. Many believe the opposite since gas prices rise with inflation and the poor spend more on gas. Here we account for both forces, wage movements & more!🧵👇
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This increase in inflation was quite heterogeneous across goods, as energy (gas, fuel, and electricity) experienced the largest increase.
The impact was also quite heterogeneous across households
1
2
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According to this new movie
@BancoDeEspana
is the safest place on Earth… it’s great to have a movie about your workplace 😃
1
5
44
Great speech by
@Isabel_Schnabel
on monetary policy transmission. You can find the slides here
The Inaugural Conference of the ChaMP Research Network
@ecb
starts at 9.00 AM CEST with an opening speech by
@Isabel_Schnabel
and a presentation of the ChaMP Network. Tune in and follow live at:
0
5
16
1
9
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The great
@matias_cova2
will present this Saturday at
#SED2024
our new work with Vasco Carvalho analyzing the nonlinear propagation of sectoral shocks in a production network using neural networks (hence the title 'nets o nets'). Check it out!
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A great initiative to follow our research!
📢 Hi, everyone 👋! This new account is run by
@BancoDeEspana
researchers. Please, follow us for information on publications, conferences, and other research news at the Banco de España
#bdeResearch
#EconTwitter
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Mi nueva columna en
@nadaesgratis
sobre el tipo de interés natural!
1
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Come to see our paper!
Arrived in San Antonio (first timer for me in Texas!) for
#ASSA2024
If you are around, join us on Sat 6th, 8am (yeah...😎) for some fascinating presentations on *INFLATION AND INEQUALITY*
Will be talking about our project with
@BBVAResearch
and
@NunoGalo
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@MarkusEconomist
@dandolfa
@toniwhited
@DirkNiepelt
@piazzesi
@haralduhlig
@JavierBianchi7
@Lagos_R_
@SakiBigio
The paper is called "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy". Here is the link again
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@SakiBigio
, Juan Passadore and I have a new version of our paper "Debt-Maturity Management with Liquidity Costs"
We analyze the problem faced by every Treasury around the World in these Covid times: How much debt, and at which maturities, should we issue?
1
3
36
Looking forward to attending this great workshop put forward by
@YuchengYang1993
,
@comp_simon
, and Felix Kluber in
@UZH_en
!
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As I hope this🧵 makes clear, this is an exciting new line of research.
I am sure in the coming years these (and other) techniques will be applied to derive valuable lessons about how to design monetary policy
Happy to add works I overlooked (or to correct any mistakes
12/12
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2
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Very interesting for everyone interested in monetary policy transmission. Thanks!
0
3
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If you are attending the
@ASSAMeeting
, come to see our session on "Optimal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents" (Sat. 7 at 10:15 AM ), kindly organized by Matthew Rognlie.
0
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This is a very promising method to work with higher-order pertubations in HA models
!!!Paper alert!!!
We propose a novel endogenous gridpoint method for distributional dynamics - DEGM - that is fast, simple, efficient, and nonlinear.
Joint work with
@christianbaye13
@mweiss_econ
and
@YanW1n
.
Try it:
Read it:
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Thanks a lot
@YuchengYang1993
! It was great to present there and enjoy the company and the beautiful view of Zurich
Very happy to have
@NunoGalo
visiting us at
@uzh_bf
@SFI_CH
to present "Inequality and ZLB" (w Fernández-Villaverde, Marbet,
@OmarRachedi1
). Pictured: Galo explains how to handle nontrivial market clearing & nonlinear perceived law of motion in a global solution to
#HANK
models.
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One
#maths
question for
#EconTwitter
, are you familiar with any proposition linking the stochastic steady state with the ergodic distribution? Of course in the linear gaussian case, the deterministic steady state coincides with the mean, what about nonlinear systems?
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6
31
Submit your papers! It’s going to be great
CALL FOR PAPERS:
#CEBRA23
:
@BancoDeEspana
is organizing session 1 "The impact of
#inflation
on households and firms. Committee:
@NunoGalo
,
@myroslav_p
,
@ClodinFF
Submit your paper & attend our Annual Meeting in
#NYC
from July 5-7. Visit:
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Amazing resource!
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By "optimal monetary policy" I refer to the solution of the Ramsey optimal policy as in (both time-0 and timeless).
How can a benevolent central bank decide the optimal path of nominal interest rates? (or the optimal response to shocks)
1
3
31
Thanks a lot to the editors
@ChalleEdouard
@Xavier_Ragot
Stephane Auray and Aurelien Eyquem!
Recently published in
@AnnalsOf
by G. Nuño and C. Thomas
#MonetaryPolicy
#IncompleteMarkets
#Inflation
#NominalDebt
#Redistribution
@CrestUmr
@ENSAEparis
,
@Polytechnique
,
@IPParisEco
0
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0
3
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@CEMFIsumschool
Are you interested in continuous-time methods, deep learning or heterogeneous agent models in macroeconomics? Come and join Jesús and me in this course (conditional on availability…)
4
7
28
Thanks to the
@ChicagoFed
for inviting me to present my research on monetary policy and capital misallocation. Comments and talks were quite useful!
Recent work by
@R2Rsquared
,
@GitaGopinath
@skalemliozcan
, or
@VicoVanasco
has found that a decline in real rates increases misallocation. What does it mean for the conduct of monetary policy?
A short thread🧵:
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This is a very important issue: given the challenges facing the world, macro and monetary probably deserve more attention. Whose fault is it? Editors? Referees?
Today I want to talk about a comparison of two statistics that, as a young macroeconomist, scares me quite a bit:
Fraction of papers in the AER related to Macro and Monetary: 7.4% (average of 2020 and 2021)
Fraction of JM candidates working in macro monetary (EJM): 24.5%
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That is cool new paper that shows us the road ahead
🚨New WP: "A comprehensive machine learning framework for dynamic portfolio choice with transaction costs"🚨
@HECLausanneEcon
@heclausanne
@E4S_Center
joint work with
@LucaGaegauf
(
@UZH_en
), Fabio Trojani
@SFI_CH
@UNIGEnews
Link here:
Comments welcome!
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This is a great paper by a promising young economist, check it out!
What makes inflation costly? Who bears these costs?
In my JMP, I explore an understudied mechanism:
Inflation impairs households’ ability to save for precautionary reasons
How? Let’s take a look at households’ liquid assets portfolios
#EconTwitter
#Econjobmarket
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For any PhD student or researcher interested in sovereign default, here is an amazing list of academic references by
@gp_mihalache
, check it out!
0
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Very cool idea!
Just presented a brand new paper "A Modern History of Inflation as Conflict" with Friedrich Geiecke (LSE) in Hong Kong. Is conflict inflation? We build a novel index of price conflict over 1852-2023 and provide the first, extensive macro-historical support for the theory.
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If you speak Spanish and enjoy economic history you may be interested in this new podcast! The gust episode deals with críptocurrencies and the origins of money.
En nuestro primer episodio queremos hablar de historia con dos no-historiadores que la conocen muy bien. ¡Toda una declaración de intenciones! Conversaremos con Jesús Fernández-Villaverde y
@galtares
sobre cómo el pasado nos ayuda a entender mejor bitcoin y Europa.
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Ups, I forgot to link the paper. Here it is
Comments are welcome!
1
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If you work in economic history, especially money & banking, do not hesitate to submit your work!
📃 CALL FOR PAPER
Joint
@cepr_org
and Ninth
@BancoDeEspana
Economic History Seminar
Themes:
- Macro & financial history
- Economic growth in long run
- Institutions & economic development,
- History of international economy
📆 Apply before 7 July 2023⬇️
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7
23
Very interesting post by
@HannoLustig
. He raises important questions for central bankers and academics
Why were monetary and fiscal policy makers caught on the wrong foot by the evolution of the yield curve over the past 18 months? What are the implications?
Some thoughts.
🧵
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Come and join us! Send your papers on heterogeneous firms and monetary policy, both theoretical and empirical.
Only 1 month to go to our submission deadline for the
#CEBRA22
Annual Meeting in Barcelona
@UPFBarcelona
! Session 18 is organized by
@BancoDeEspana
,
@NunoGalo
, Carlos Thomas,
@emoralbenito
Submit here:
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The problem with heterogeneous agents is that the income-wealth distribution is a (infinite-dimensional) state in the central bank's dynamic programming problem.
Work by
@FlorinBilbiie
,
@Xavier_Ragot
, or
@ChalleEdouard
dealt with this issue using tractable models
1
1
23
The NBER SI session on , organized by
@glviolante
,
@GregWKaplan
and Erik Hust starts tomorrow.
Amazing line up of papers! (including
@Bea_GonzalezL
and Dominik Thaler). It's going to be quite enlightening
0
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Amazing conference! (I disclose that I am biased, my coauthor Jim Costain will present our new paper on The Term Structure of Interest rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union )
Paris, Nov 18-19:
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Public Debt in a Post
#COVID
World,
@banquedefrance
&
@cepr_org
(hybrid) meeting.
Invited speakers:
@R2Rsquared
,
@Federomei1
&
@JohnHCochrane
#BdFeco
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We build a standard heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with aggregate shocks and an occasionally-binding zero lower bound (ZLB).
To solve globally this heterogeneous-agent model with aggregate shocks, we employ deep learning techniques.
2/n
1
1
21
@FlorinBilbiie
It is shocking that, in the current macro context, macro research is so underrepresented in a top journal such as AER, but as
@GautiEggertsson
pointed out, I guess it is (our) macro guys’ fault, as referees do not come from mars.
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Looking forward to presenting there tomorrow. Thanks for the invitation!
This Tuesday we are excited to host
@NunoGalo
from
@BancoDeEspana
talking about "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution" in our QE seminar. Join us at 12:15 CET, all infos are here:
#econtwitter
#macroeconomics
#macrofinance
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¿Cómo afecta a su bolsillo la reducción del balance del banco central? Mi nueva entrada en el blog del
@BancoDeEspana
:
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The 🧵 is based on a new paper with Jim Costain and Carlos Thomas
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3
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I have been months waiting for
@RustamJamilov
and
@monacelt
to release this paper. Now looking forward to reading it!
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Imagine if
@hmtreasury
had had this amazing Excel macro to solve optimal debt maturity problems a few weeks ago! Can it be useful for
@carlos_cuerpo
?
If you work in a Treasury Office or Debt Management Office, you are probably seeing a lot of action.
We created a simple Excel App where treasury's can plug parameters to evaluate their debt programs:
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In order to solve it, we generalize the traditional Krusell-Smith method: households form expectations based on a limited set of moments, but they employ neural networks (instead of linear regression) to find the law of motion of aggregate variables.
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