Randolph Duke 🇺🇸
@RandolphDuke7
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FO / HF, L/S securities, real estate, private equity. Behavioral finance. Joyologist. Eastern Shore. Mortimer is greedy. Head of Macro 🇺🇸 #BillsMafia
Everywhere and nowhere.
Joined October 2019
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Elon having a great week.
1. Introduces robot out of 1954 comic book. Fanbois eat it up.
2. Sh*ts the bed on Q3 deliveries with more mushmouth in-transit excuses.
3. Goes full Vichy on Ukraine.
4. Swings back to manic go-ahead on TWTR deal.
Nice quarter, guys.
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Oh, so Kim Kardashian and Martha Stewart are securities crooks while knobs like Elon Musk and Keith Rabois run around consequence-free.
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A thread on DCF circularity vs brilliant capital allocators / platform value.
DCFs have explicit assumptions about fundamentals and interest rates. Anyone that does a DCF should agree with General Dwight Eisenhower: "Plans are useless, but planning is everything."
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LOL.
TWITTER APPARENTLY ASKED PARAG AGRAWAL AND NED SEGAL TO RETURN TO MANAGE OPERATIONS
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"I hate DCFs" =
1. "I can't reconcile the three financial statements in a way that corresponds to the economics I narratively express about the company."
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Jesus, dude. You just published an admission to commiting numerous violations of state securities laws and Securities & Exchange Commission regulations.
Nice hustle, but you may want to delete.
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Pretty baffling how AMC Apes understand perfect securities brokerage, hedge fund operations & management, and all sorts of arcane subjects but can never discuss the fundamentals of a business as straightforward as movie theaters.
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Top ten fav investment book. Simply awesome in its scope and insights.
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Heading out on a date, fam. How do I look?
"Overweight" not allowed as an answer.
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@SenMarkey
Elon is still under consent decree by the Securities & Exchange Commission to have all his tweets reviewed and approved by someone at Tesla. He has ignored that decree since entering into it to avoid prosecution for securities fraud.
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Who wants to form an LLC and grab this?
Perpetual Listerine royalty. Current ask = 5.4% cash yield, current bid = 7.6%.
I knew a fellow who put all his kids through college on the same asset.
With only 12 hours left, however, likely impossible.
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Costco's semi beta over the last 30 years is amazing. They capture 102% of the market's upward moves but only 68% of its downward moves.
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Nine years ago today. Johann Rupert blows a gasket on sellsiders and I think buysiders. This is awesome - couldn't agree more.
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Treasury receipts running 34% YoY vs 2021 (the next lowest line in the static pool).
Withheld income & employment receipts: +19%
Individual income taxes: +205% (!)
Unemployment tax: +18%
Excise: +22%
Corporate income tax: +20%
As of 4/28/22.
Economy appears more than "fine."
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This Carl Icahn documentary on HBO is good. Really hope it has the HLF showdown.
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If you look at Waymo vs Tesla, it's embarrassing how far behind Tesla is in level 5 autonomy.
Waymo : Tesla FSD :: Mercedes Benz S class : Fisher Price kids' car.
Qualitatively, there is also no comparison in how each is developed and tested.
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Affirm (AFRM) revenue break-out for 2022. Amazon coloring take rates. Revenue grew 77% on 117% GMV growth.
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Short TWTR is one of the best reverse risk-arbs in a long time.
Tesla cratering against a margined owner, Musk simping with two authoritarian regimes for his own ends with Space X and its inter-company financing very questionable.
Upside 7% vs downside of 75%. No brainer.
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How to Succeed in Business:
1. Do what the boss says.
2. Do it quickly.
3. Update the boss if there is a delay.
How to Present:
1. Be brief.
2. Be bright.
3. Be gone.
I can’t emphasize enough to young people who are just starting out in their careers - the leg up you will have on your peers simply by being satisfactory at your job and just being responsive alone. That’s it. Just being responsive puts you to the right of the median.
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@EdBorgato
The mistake the fintechs make is believing companies like Capital One are bozos. COF and others have scores or hundreds of PhD quants and they've been developing "AI" for decades.
The origin story on most of fintech is completely garbage.
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All ridiculous locations for a logistics operations. Your offices should be in places like Seacaucus and Cheektowaga.
A *line* for the bathroom? At the office? What is wrong with you?
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Heating one up for Jim Simons
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If AMC gets back to 355K attendance per theatre in 2023 with revenue / attendee of $16+ vs $15.35 in 2019, with EBITDA margin of 19% vs 12.5% in 2019, it's trading at 25x 2023 EBITDA and 255x EPS. Nice.
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I just rebuilt this model after not touching it for six years. Some comments follow.
I didn't touch it because a fellow I worked with at a new firm covered it and I didn't need to do the backup work. His work was solid and we were getting to the same valuation. Lesson is
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OK, fam, I lifted the ask. Everyone wins. Randolph Duke's new dojo on the Eastern Shore.
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"Let me never fall into the mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
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This is the GOAT of all finance movies.
Covers value investing, breakup value analysis, the morality and immorality of capitalism, and has two of the best finance soliloquies (even better than "Greed is Good').
Best Finance Movies (actually)
1. HBO: Panic! The untold story of 2008
2. The Devil Wears Prada
3. Whiplash
4. The Big Short
5. The Wizard of Lies
6. Frontline: Bezos, Easy Money, Etc.
7. Wall Street
8. Saving Private Ryan (opening scene)
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This is...something
FRC's deposit disclosure in its press release was one of the most weaselly things I've read in 25+ years of covering financials.
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So Trupanion's CFO and pricing officer got canned because the company expressed to investors and tested on certain customers (both speculations on my part) because the CFO was telling the world the following (not a speculation. He did, and more):
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@SteveScalise
@BarbarianCap
US crude demand in blue, US crude production in white.
Sir, you are misinformed.
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From an older research report I wrote. A broadly useful tool for assessing whether a company is efficient and mature or still in investment mode (or just disadvantaged).
As an example, Costco brings down 26% of its gross profits to the EBIT line. Up about 250 bps over the last..
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I had no idea Domino's capital allocation was this good.
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FTAI is an aerospace products lessor (engines, aircraft) and a service provider.
$8B market cap, $2.7B debt.
It is levered at 20x assets/equity. So 5.6% equity. Trading at a casual 45x book value.
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Be careful average down sectors with returns characterized by Pareto distribution (tech hardware, software, healthcare goods & services, retail & apparel...)
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This is the cover of a 440+ page report from Deloitte on consolidation of subsidiaries, gain on sale accounting, and other accounting policies. I think what they're trying to communicate here is the writers and the readers both will need a drink after getting through it.
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Chuffed about this 1880 walnut coat cabinet (closet?) for the front haul. I don't like coat trees.
Antique furniture is 1,000x more of a value, and lower cost, than anything made today.
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Very wealthy French wear Hermes because it's very low key, they love physical gold (which is always hidden), and they like rural land (land, not necessarily chateaux). Because they got their heads chopped off 230 years ago for doing otherwise.
Then you've got this dumb donkey.
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Citigroup. This is what happens when you equitize at the bottom. Permanent capital impairment.
You're an absolute stoop if you recommend buying any regional bank here. Many are probably fine. But as a generalized recommendation, it's absolutely insane.
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You were the Chairman the whole time.
Now you're throwing Clark under the bus for a strategy on which you signed off and you're entirely dodging responsibility for what your company has done. But you have wonderful real estate with great juju.🤡
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Officially closed on the new dojo on the Eastern Shore (MD).
@SconnieTrader
says the 600 sq ft ballroom is "Adorable. Fabulous."
Mirth and hilarity to ensue within these grounds and halls.
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45 year-old motivational speaker welcomes Bishop to the Bills.
Wait, being told now the fellow on the left is DT DeWayne Carter.
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CVNA equity is worthless whatever discount rate one uses, but I'd love to see what Ke the bulls are using here. These senior rates are insane.
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This is a fund that has beaten the SPX over 20 years. Who cares about name.
Good process, fine people. Lauded for this result. A little too much, but they did their duty well.
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Carl Icahn wielding his 100 shares of MCD to change their pork procurement process was not on my bingo card.
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Prem Watsa was in our office raising capital to fill balance sheet holes about 20 years ago and he was PISSED about the shorts. I mean, irrationally pissed, propounding short cabal conspiracies... Never looked at it again as a long.
MW is short Fairfax Financial Holdings $FFH.CN bc Non-Cash, Highly Dubious gains are responsible for ~60% of Book Value growth in recent years. Since 2021, $FRFHF has been in gozo mode w its abusive accounting
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Hard to believe I've lived 14% of my life without my Dad. Eight years ago yesterday.
He has always been here since he left, sure, but miss him especially during Masters week.
On the way to Scotland with golfing pals, 1959.
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Guys, pro tip:
Take out your friends' widows for a nice dinner. You'll both enjoy the company and shared memories and they'll know they're out with someone safe and trustworthy (if you're not a weirdo).
Doing this tomorrow and looking forward to it.
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Gonna be a fun quarter for AFRM. They are massively under-reserved and I don't think they're going to be as successful selling their receivables this quarter.
Estimates are WAY too high, IMO.
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AMC buying into a silver mine.
What the actual F? My God. Can't wait to see the Apes' reaction. They'll probably lap it up.
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Was talking with a friend / former student the other night and I said I think it's a good idea every generalist to cover balance sheet financials early in their career.
It makes you more valuable, it provides insight into lots of situations, and you'll never look
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LULU is a GARP trap. Not cheap on normalized margins.
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Babies make noise. That's what they do. It should be a joy to hear a new life. Get a NetJets card if you're all that.
I will be ridiculed for this position: Until airlines start advertising crying babies in first/business class next to someone trying to work or sleep rather than the ads we see of serenity, I can’t support kids up there. I say this as a parent of three!
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Lotta fuddy-duddies on my street have their lights off.
A. Not cool.
B. Good way to get your house egged or TPed.
I am manning candy stations.
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How about every Dad who busts their asses every day to support their kids and feels privileged to be able to do so?
How about every Dad that is an ally and supporter of the person they helped bring into the world?
Don't have to be famous to influence the next generation.
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Someone gathered a good number of the world's biggest douchewagons for this Spaces meeting.
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This is one of my favorite setups in true compounders. Wait til it goes sideways for 3-4 years and digest the earnings stairs it just climbed.
Hermes is not giving back those earnings, so at 22x forward EPS, this is attractive for coffee canning it.
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@dollarlostavg
@3YearLetterman
@GuyFieri
@NYCMayor
@MayorofLondon
@Eurovision
@kellyclarkson
@PaulaAbdul
@YO_RANDYJACKSON
@SamuelLJackson
@samsmith
@sammyhagar
Sunshine State. Gorgeous. Just gorgeous.
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If you're looking for a series to watch and have Amazon Prime Video, The Americans is on. Great Soviet-American spy series set in early 1980s Washington, D.C.. Written by a former CIA officer. Good cast and acting, good writing.
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About 2% annualized.
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Never hire your divorce attorney as corporate counsel.
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If you can't remember your shopper's club card at the store, put this in with the local area code and you're almost certain to get the discount.
867-5309.
Not sure peeps younger than Gen X will get it. It definitely works. I use it all the time now.
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If you're a middling-looking 30 year-old who hasn't had quite the luck with the ladies, just wait til you get to 53.
Cause Randolph here is somewhat newly single and I can carry a conversation. You put that together with some career stability and, not to brag, but wow.
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CAVA. Just spamming the world with a ton of new boxes yet producing comps of 2.3% with a 1.2% decline in traffic. A very lukewarm result for a high-valuation, super growthy name.
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The US is going to be as obese in 3 and 5 years as it is today.
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Watch quick serve restaurant employees work for ten minutes and you'll see peope hustling their entire shift in many cases.
Denigrating the hard work of others, especially those making $20-30K a year isn't cool.
$MCD The direct result of fast food workers demanding $15+ p/hour to hand me a bag of food through a window.
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Banner day for earnings guidance. SOFI just makes up its definition of GAAP and then can't foot it. Nice work, boners.
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Tesla is so F'd with better, cheaper competing products beginning to flood the market.
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2. "I don't want to state explicitly my assumptions because then I may look silly later."
3. "My DCF explicitly values about 25% of NPV of cash flow and then bakes 75% of it into an airy confection of bullshit with a totally unrealistic terminal multiple."
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@GRDecter
There's this thing called a "statement of cash flows," which helps us understand the changes in cash.
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Been waiting a while to do this. First fire in the new dojo.
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Fun watching the whiney man children who run this country beg for yet another bailout when their interests are threatened.
Yeah, SVB needs to be subsumed by a large bank. But the whining from VCs and real estate PE guys is embarrassing and philosophically twisted.
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For the young people out there, don't study the GFC for credit risk. Study 2001-2003.
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How it's going at DR Horton.
Income statement looking is a train wreck.
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BBG: FIRST REPUBLIC: HAS ACCESS TO OVER $60B AT FHLB AND FED
Twist this liability structure by so much as $6B, funding a runoff in noninterest-bearing accounts and EPS goes to $3.50 vs. consensus of $6.13 this year and $8.22 next.
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Way to fuck up Twitter, Elon. The utility value of this platform has been greatly damaged . incredibly poor operational choices, not to mention Musk's obvious emotional derangement. This used to be a good platform for real-time info. Not anymore. Elon is an idiot and insane.
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AFRM in a nutshell. Appears at TMT conference. Huh?
It's not tech and adding "fin" to the thing doesn't make it so. It's a securitization-driven, capital markets-dependent company.
Which was on display today with failed ABS issuance.
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The bot problem on Twitter seems far worse than a year ago.
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God damn it. Objectifying women on Wall Street is one of the root causes of structural inequality on the Street.
Cut it out, asshole.
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DPZ finally back at a buy point for me. Naice.
Q1 numbers may not be so great, but the hurdle is not huge.
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Here's a fun story from 25 years ago when we were short the first DJT.
Not only did that fail, but a side conversation I had with Trump led him to get involved in NASCAR, which led to the largest real estate loss in NYC history.
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Bob Nardelli was a moron of a CEO at Home Depot (same playbook that ruined BA).
Shame to see them taking the pro supply swing yet again.
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Clarkson's Farm, on Amazon Prime, is charming and educational on how difficult it is to make money at farming. The Lambo tractor is insane.
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AFRM wants us to add back 52% of opex to get to adjusted operating income. LOL.
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You advocate for the destruction of Israel and send hordes of incels to rape and murder Israeli women and babies. Your demonstrations are openly antisemitic and you terrorize Jewish people and society in general in the US.
You support Hamas, who are terrorists.
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