RacetotheWH
@RacetotheWH
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RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.
Washington D.C.
Joined June 2020
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Rating Shifts in the RacetotheWH Forecast since the Launch on Monday:
Maine: Likely D to Safe D
ME-2: Lean R to Tilt R
NE-2: Tilt D to Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D
Texas: Lean R to Likely R
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Get ready for the RacetotheWH Presidential Forecast! It will be dropping on Monday!
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@rmurph525
@KateBennett_DC
@jaketapper
@LindseyGrahamSC
@Reagan_Airport
Yeah, but I bet most of them weren't a Senator. That comes with a certain responsibility. We should expect Senators to set a good example. If everyone acted like Graham did, we'd have more sick Americans
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@stella2020woof
I'll never get why Michelle Obama is included in every poll, when she has made it clear she won't run for any office.
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@ElectionWiz
This is the real reason - Brooks fell to third place and Trump didn't want to be embarrassed. You'll find few if any more loyal followers than Mo Brooks
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For the first time, RacetotheWH averaged over 10 thousand views a day last week! Thanks for following our work!
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The dividing line in the GOP primary is education. Among voters with a 4-year degree, Donald Trump's support is at 38%. With the rest of the party, he's winning nearly 60% of the vote.
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Election Forecast Update from RacetotheWH
House Forecast:
Chance to Win: Democrats 52.2%, GOP 47.8%
Seats: Democrats 218, GOP 217
Senate Forecast:
Chance to Win: Democrats 41.8%, GOP 58.2%
Seats: Democrats 48.1, GOP 51.9
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Track the latest presidential polling for every state at RacetotheWH
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When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.
If Republicans can flip Arizona, they'll almost certainly win the Senate majority. However, Democrat Ruben Gallego has an early edge in the race over Republican Kari Lake. Here's the new RacetotheWH interactive forecast for Arizona.
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Twelve days after the State of the Union, Joe Biden has cut Donald Trump's lead in half, though he still trails in the national polling average.
Before: Biden 43.44% Trump 45.47% (R+2.03%)
Today: Biden 44.65% Trump 45.69% (R+1.04%)
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@tencor_7144
Oregon and Colorado seem like big misses to me too. If the Republicans get a proper red tidal wave (R+7-8 and & beyond), there's a shot those go into play. Doubtful they could take advantage with the current candidates.
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Shift in the Iowa Polling Average in the Last 150 Days
Gained Support:
+14% Trump
+10% Scott
+5% Vivek
+3% Christie & Haley
Lost Support:
-15% DeSantis
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@wash_gton
I'm projecting Terry McAuliffe to pull this out by 2.1% in my Virginia Forecast. It was one of the most accurate forecast in 2020.
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@SteveMTalk
@AnnCoulter
@realDonaldTrump
That's not really how power or politics works. Just because you are one out of 1/100 Senators doesn't mean you write the whole tax code. The only tax bill Biden played a pivotal role in raised taxes for the wealthy and cut them for the middle class - and that was as VP
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Maggie Hassan position is getting stronger in NH. Our newest update shows its a Tilt D race.
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@LoganR2WH
Here's the full prediction, which now includes the latest polling, broken down by demographic group
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Ready for election night? This is what you can expect to see - hour by hour as the polls close.
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Iowa was supposed to be a slam dunk for the GOP - but the Senate Race is now a tossup. How did it happen? Democrats made a big gamble, going all in on a race that most pundits didn’t even think was in play.
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Another sneak peak at the soon to be published Georgia Senate Forecast
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Exciting News! Race to the WH outperformed FivethirtyEight in predicting the final result on average - for both the Presidential & Senate elections, in states that have reported over 95% of the vote.
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@LoganR2WH
Like the charts? They are from our FL Senate Forecast at RacetotheWH. Here's the full prediction
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Polling was showing Gavin Newsom was struggling mightily with Latino voters. Now, after new polling from Survey USA, he appears to be doing much better. It goes to show how much Democrats' success could be dependent on maintaining their Latino coalition.
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We are tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Presidential Race at RacetotheWH, including an electoral college map showing the leader in each state.
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Ohio is shifting towards Biden. Seriously - if it moves even another half percent , he'll have a better shot there then North Carolina. It's becoming a genuine battleground state - and could expand Biden's path to 270
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Andrew Yang lead in the NYC Mayor's race has only grown in recent weeks. Track the latest polling in our new NYC Interactive Feature at RacetotheWH!
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Next week, we will be launching a new CA Senate Primary Forecast. Yesterday, we launched our first Senate primary forecast for the Texas Senate race, where Colin Allred is breaking away from the field
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Here's a thread explaining why my forecast still has McAuliffe ever so slightly favored - and some underlying assumptions I made that might not prove true in Virginia.
In my Virginia Forecast, there is a huge clash between the polling and the fundamentals. As a result, even though Youngkin is ahead by almost 1% in the polling, I still have McAuliffe slightly ahead.
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New mini-update: Our polling average now also includes a 90 day trendline for each swing state, so you can focus in on recent changes in the race.
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Black Lives Matters has already transformed the way white Americans view systemic racism - reminiscent of the March on Selma 55 years ago.
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@Politics_Polls
@ChangePolls
Following the new poll, Gavin Newsom's chances of winning have surged to 80% in the California Recall Forecast, run using a similar forecast that correctly called Democrats double victory in the Georgia Senate Primary.
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Jon Ossoff has just taken the lead against David Perdue. Barring a shocking turn of events, Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate. Georgia will send two Democrats to the U.S. Senate in a stunning rebuke to the Donald Trump era of American politics
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Exciting new feature. I spent a few dozen hours perfecting this in the past weekend, and I think you'll like it! Updated daily
The Governor Primary Polling Tracker is now live at RacetotheWH🚨🚨🚨
At launch, it includes:
1. Arizona
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. New York
7. Pennsylvania
8. Texas & a few more!
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Iowa is quite close (In polls, Trump up <1%) but because Trump blew most of his cash, he's going dark, right as Biden starts his ads up. Bet this could happen in Ohio (Biden +1.5%) too.
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@AzelfDaBoi
@tencor_7144
True but they are still huuuuge reaches. I think Democrats most likely win both by 10%+
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The next big feature coming to RacetotheWH! Get ready for the Race to the World Series!!!
My new MLB forecast is coming along well! It's so satisfying to see a full season simulated, and a new World Series champ, every time I press a key stroke.
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California Forecast - Newsom Finally Breaks Through, Chance of Winning Surges Above 80% After New Poll
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Stacey Abrams has thrown her hat in the ring, and the Georgia Governor Race is now a tossup in the RacetotheWH Forecast, which correctly called Democrats three victories last cycle.
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I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota.
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@SleepyJosh98
@Politics_Polls
@Harvard
@HarrisPoll
True! This is a result of limited polling - I'm putting every public Biden approval rating from each state I can find in the weighed average. Some states just don't have very much - including Michigan. He's probably a bit higher then net -4% in Michigan, and lower in Utah
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RMG Research has conducted polls all across the country that came out today. We're getting our first look at a ton of the most important House Races. Follow the new polling, adjusted for historic partisan bias, right here:
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@Politics_Polls
For another take, explore the RacetotheWH Polling Average. We called the highest percent of Senate and Gov races right in 2022.
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WOW! Georgia Senate Race now TILTS Democrat! Warnock is the heavy (80%!) favorite if its Warnock v. Loeffler, whose the most unpopular incumbent in the nation. If its Collins, Warnock has an the edge (63%) after today's polling
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@BissellZakrey
Thanks.
BTW - I don't choose the ratings manually. It's based on the projection from my forecast, which is driven by data.
Safe D/R = 95%+ chance to win
Likely D/R = 85-95% chance
Lean D/R = 75-85% chance
Tilt D/R = 65-75%+ chance
Tossup = 45-65% chance
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Finally, we got a new poll in the New York City Mayor's race. Check out the newest standings
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@NilesGApol
Oh that's a good take. But she has definitely given Warnock some ammo. The Marjorie Greene endorsement opened up a hell of a vulnerability
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Could Texas go Blue? Democrats have long dreamed of winning the Lone Star State, and a Fox News Poll showed Biden up 1. In the Race to the White House Presidential Forecast, we still have Trump winning Texas, but Biden has a 1/3 shot at an upset
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@OtherSideReflec
@Politics_Polls
@QuinnipiacPoll
Warnock is polling 8% ahead of Collins, & 9% ahead of Loeffler. Plus, Loeffler has a truly incredible -10% approval, and Warnock is quite popular. I just don't get why people think Republicans are favored, let alone dominant favorites.
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@iykyk954
Some of those are being tracked already in our old version, which includes far more candidates. We don't have EVERY poll for those matchups, but we have most of them.
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In Florida, Val Demings (D) chances of an upset have drifted up to 18% in our Senate Forecast. This is a better poll for her, but she's still down in a race where the fundamentals favor Rubio. We'll see if this is the beginning of a trend or an outlier
We've got some new polling today in Florida showing Demings a stones throw away from Rubio, and DeSantis recovering some ground against Crist.
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That's a trend we have been seeing nationally. Democrats are outperforming Republican's in the national generic ballot by about 2% on average, even as Biden's approval rating is 3% underwater.
McAuliffe's margin in the Fox News poll and in the polling in general in Virginia is about 4-5 points higher than Biden's net approval rating in VA. Give McAuliffe a bit of a cushion.
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Meet out newest RacetotheWH correspondent to help us count the votes
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In Wisconsin, Donald Trump now trails Joe Biden by over 9% on average - a bigger advantage then Hillary Clinton ever had in 2016:
#Wisconsin
#Biden
#Trump
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There's a plausible scenario where this cycle because a bloodbath for Senate Republicans if Democrats overperform their current projections by just a few points. If that happens, they could easily win 55 or more seats
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Here's our first edition of the Alaska Senate Forecast. Read the whole thread to learn the challenges we're taking on in projecting the results in Alaska, as state that has just adopted ranked choice voting.
Now that Murkowski is running for re-election, I'm designing an Alaska Forecast for ranked-choice voting. It's based on my NYC Mayor model, my most successful forecast yet.
Chance to Win:
Lisa Murkowski: 80%
Kelly Tshibaka: 16%
Democrat (Gray Jackson): 3%
Joe Miller: 1%
(1/8)
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@tencor_7144
I was really curious, so I checked this out for myself too. Last year, I ran extensive test with my Senate forecast on the 06 cycle and others - and this was my map on the earliest date I have, January 1st, 2016.
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Gov. Tim Walz (D) is looking a lot stronger in Minnesota after SurveyUSA showed him up by double digits against every Republican.
Race Rating Change: Tilt D -> Lean D
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Lots of new polling in the Arizona Governor Race today. Explore it all in our AZ Gov. Interactive Election Forecast
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We're switching to the Special Election for the Alaska Race. Check out our latest projection
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Big news - the Interactive MLB Forecast is going live on Monday! It simulates the season over 1,000 times every update, and predicts how likely each team is to make the playoffs.
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You guys chose NH. I think that's probably right if Sununu runs. It's a great example of how much the candidates matte. Here is Dem. Senator Hassan's chance of victory against three different opponents:
Gov. Sununu: 48%
Former Sen. Ayotte: 59%
General Don Bolduc: 82%
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We harnesses predictions from the top sports betting sites - and statistics from the NFL and ESPN - to predict the outcome of every game this season.
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"The violence is ratcheting up at the same time the rhetoric is becoming more extreme, and Trump might look more like the arsonist gleefully pouring gasoline on the political pyre then the fireman quenching the flames."
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Susan Collins is in the middle of the toughest race of her career, and a new poll has Democrat Sarah Gideon back on top. Gideon is once again the favorite in a race that could easily go down to the wire.
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Joe Biden's net approval rating has fallen, but he still remains about 10% above Donald Trump at this point in his presidency.
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@OtherSideReflec
Ironically I just did a graphic on this. In 2016 it was PA 10.3% WI 12.7%, MI 13.4%
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This one is going to make some folks nervous. Florida is getting more competitive, and we just downgraded it to Tilt Democrat for the first time since mid June.
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@tencor_7144
When it happens - and clearly it will, I'll credit you as the first to raise the possibility.
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New Forecast Update for Race to the WH - Joe Biden has a 87.4% chance of victory, up three points over the last five days as Donald Trump has already lost his convention boost.
#Biden
#2020Elections
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@AzelfDaBoi
@tencor_7144
You are right. I was spit balling based on partisan lean, and made a mistake. Wyden won by so much that my model he'd win by 22% in a neutral cycle. Even in a historic victory, GOP likely doesn't have a shot.
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Raphael Warnock has held the she against Loeffler for most of the past few months. She briefly became the favorite, but now Warnock has pulled ahead again. We have him winning by 0.9 percent
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@AdamParkhomenko
Irony that someone has a mask with an American flag, while literally cheering an end to the Republic and the beginning of autocracy. Nothing is more precious than making sure the will of the American people is followed. If you don't get that, you aren't patriotic at all
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@tencor_7144
I'd assume that the coma must have caused some pretty serious brain damage, because there's no way that's happening in 2024.
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Wow - it looks like Donald Trump is already started to lose his bounce from the convention. Polls take from August 30th to September 1st aren't as strong from him. Biden's lead has gone up from 7.5% back to 8%.
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Here's our first take on what the 2021 election results suggest for 2022
My preliminary analysis shows that Democrats would be on track for a 2.7% loss in the 2022 popular vote based on past VA and NJ elections. That means they would lose the House, but we'd still be in a dog fight for the Senate.
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@chbrkr
We just launched a new PA Primary Forecast. Last cycle, our Senate Forecast was one of the most accurate in the nation.
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Its election day in Georgia. For the first time in the runoff, our forecast has Jon Ossoff as the favorite in Georgia, up by 0.1 percent!
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@AzelfDaBoi
@tencor_7144
I'm not so sure on Washington. I think it could be a touch closer than that based on the recent polling.
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Colorado is one of six competitive States where Democrats are the big favorites. When they win 5/6, they win the election 86% of the time!
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Trafalgar, a right leaning pollster, shows the Virginia Governor razor tight. McAuliffe up by only two. Dismiss it if you want, but they were closer then many big polling firms last cycle. Republicans chance of a statement upset at 25%.
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Democrats advantage in the Senate grows after polls show Senators Susan Collins and Joni Ernst vulnerable in Maine and Iowa. The Race to the WH Forecast has Democrats winning the Senate about 67% of the time.
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Barack Obama to Ronald Reagan, almost every sitting President has a disastrous first debate. Can Trump break the Curse?
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@OtherSideReflec
@skywalkm
It makes a ton of sense - Loeffler has a horrible approval rating, and it never fully recovered after the corona briefing. That's why we had Warnock as a 71 percent favorite in a head to head runoff. That's only going up now.
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@amvetsupport
RacetotheWH has tracked all the polling for the California Recall, and is projecting the final result. One of the most accurate forecasters in 2020.
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Our polling avg. for the PA Senate will show different numbers for a new F&M poll than 538. The original poll had 20% undecided - but asked those voters who they lean to. We opted to include the leaners - which should have more predictive value
Fetterman: 44.4%
Oz: 36.4%
Net: D+8
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@electiondice
Election Dice, great stuff. I'm looking at your site and I like the way you present the data. We've got Biden winning Nevada at 73%
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I wrote a story breaking down what Democrats need to do to win the Senate. Here's the gist: First, lock down the states where Dems have a clear advantage. That's Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, and Minnesota
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Keep an eye out for Polls from Nevada coming out today. Seriously, no high quality polls since January. We have Biden at only a 73% chance there, largely because its so poll starved so uncertainty is high. Just about guarantee that 73% goes up or down today
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@RedEaglePatriot
@IAPolls2022
There's some truth to this, but we are treating the Biden v. DeSantis polls from Public Opinion Strategies the same way we would treat a DeSantis internal poll, which means we're correcting for bias.
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Since the party’s inception in 1854, no Republican has ever won without first securing victory in Ohio. Biden's support in the Buckeye State is rising, and once again, Ohio could be poised to decide the winner of the election.
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@Ye_Politics
@tencor_7144
I think you might be underestimating how much the culture wars has hurt the GOP brand in New England, especially (my home state) Connecticut. Unless the GOP shifts it's politics, I don't think voters there are open to them
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