Politics 101.538
@skywalkm
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Last Seen Profiles
@RMG_Research
@ScottWRasmussen
@KamalaHarris
@realDonaldTrump
@RobertKennedyJr
Last poll from them was:
@realDonaldTrump
➠ 48%
@KamalaHarris
➠ 46%
@RobertKennedyJr
➠ 2%
So, that marks a 7% swing towards Harris in just a little over a week.
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If u look at the cross tabs 4 the
@YouGov
polls from today, you'll find that of those who've already voted by party breakdown this is what you'll see (%):
NC:
Dem:B 100-0
Rep:T 89-8
Ind:B 57-34
GA:
Dem:B 99-0
Rep:T 94-6
Ind:B 54-42
FL:
Dem:B 99-1
Rep:T 87-12
Ind:B 56-40
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Hello all! Looking for support for as the election ends, hoping to hit 2000 followers by then. I have spent countless hours on these spreadsheets & keep them updated daily. I maintain this all by myself & make $0. Please like/rt my work when you can! Thx!
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@mckaycoppins
Not sure about pollsters, but as for forecasters, using
@OtherSideReflec
's great work at , it looks like
@LarrySabato
did the best, only missing NC (with no tossups).
@ABC
also did pretty good, although they left several as tossups.
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@NateSilver538
And right now, it's looking awfully good for Biden to boot. Just seeing where polling has headed today as I track at , the following key battlegrounds have all shifted in Biden's direction:
NC: B+2.07➠2.17
FL: B+2.18➠2.2
AZ: B+2.78➠3.07
PA: B+5.09➠5.16
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I think this is a pretty big deal. Looking at source data from
@ElectProject
&
@rp_griffin
, I was able to extrapolate how FL looks right about now. Take a look & retweet the heck out of this while also encouraging everyone to vote!
Stay tuned to for more!
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@Nate_Cohn
updated with this A+ pollster really affirming Biden's lead in the Keystone State. With this his lead grows from 6.14% ➠ 6.16%
Please rt/like/follow if you enjoy my work.
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1/ Ok, I'm gonna ask everyone up front to like/rt/follow (if you don't already) on this update at !
Here is all of my work including the newly added "Live Tally Board" sheet that will I'll update live with probabilities of who will win from 3 forecasters!
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@NateSilver538
updated with today's latest polls showing Biden up as
@NateSilver538
said by 10.72%!
Please like/rt/follow if you like my work!
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@Politics_Polls
@PRRIpoll
updated with this and other 2 national polls we've seen so far today. Biden's lead grows from 10.57% ➠ 10.72%.
Please like/rt/follow if you like my work!
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From my friend who's also tracking the election as obsessively as I. Here he's following Trump's lead in PA as the vote comes in. Do you see where that trending leads? I do. A Biden presidency.
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@PpollingNumbers
Keeping updated with all of these updates as well as what's needed in each state for each candidate to win.
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@NateSilver538
That's what I'm seeing at using
@FiveThirtyEight
data including comparisons to the previous day and to the 7 day rolling period. Also have tons of maps, charts and more! Give it a look and if you enjoy my work, please like/rt/follow!
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@Redistrict
@gtconway3d
I track these early votes in FL along with
@rp_griffin
's analysis to create this at (among many other things)!
Please like/rt/follow if you find it useful or interesting!
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@NateSilver538
Mostly updated at as Biden does seem to be having a good day so far.
Please rt/like/follow if you like my work.
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My final prediction. I was really struggling with TX, IA & OH, but when I filtered recent polling by only the top pollsters, I came up with this. TX is still throwing me off with such high turnout…I think that'll be the closest tossup. for more!
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@NateSilver538
Wow...huge numbers for Biden considering he was down 6 the last time
@MonmouthPoll
was in IA last month. will be updated shortly, but here's how things look for now (or click on the link). Please rt/like/follow if you like my work!
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Oh the irony that Trump received 232 electoral votes as well as 232 votes to be impeached.
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GA has now approximately counted 99.484% of the vote and is coming down to the wire.
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23
@NateSilver538
updated with the latest on state polling using the great data from
@FiveThirtyEight
. Check it out and if you like my work, please rt/like/follow!
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@NateSilver538
I've got 'em all updated at where I also show a running 7 day average. That is showing Biden with a an average of a 10.48% lead over the last 7 days (not including today...where it sits at 10.7%).
Please like/rt/follow if you like my work!
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@JoeBiden
@CalifColdblood
Thank you soon-to-be Mr. President. I will be voting for you. I maintain where I track your polling w/ maps, charts and data galore, and it's looking very good!
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Big AZ update with nearly 7k votes dropped, with it broken down: Biden 48.1% / 51.9% Trump (really bad for Trump who now needs nearly 65% of the remaining vote). Could we possibly get our first call tonight once more votes drop tonight? updated!
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Big Georgia update (well relatively speaking of course). Biden grows his lead from 12,671 to 14,149 taking in over 80% of a recent batch of votes. Still within recount territory, but an over 10% increase in his lead. updated with this latest batch.
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From my friend who likes to create trendlines for GA & PA. Stay tuned to to watch what comes next unfold!
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@grantstern
I don't get the pushback...when Biden lost last time, most democrats self-admittedly called it a disaster. Why can't the other side do the same? Good job as always
@grantstern
...I don't know how you do it.
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@NateSilver538
This is exactly what I've been tracking at . These three state specifically which all count early and are very indicative of what the narrative may look like on Election Day. Looking forward to adding in
@FiveThirtyEight
projections this week!
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🧵 A VERY hot take, but I think Trump just lost the election with what's going on at
#NABJ24
. In an attempt to win over voters, he is doing the exact opposite. I felt the same way after Biden's debate performance and knew it was over. Feeling the same thing here.
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@Politics_Polls
@MorningConsult
🧵 I would expect by the end of the day for PA to be bluer than GA is red (both within a point currently) at
@FiveThirtyEight
. As long as Harris doesn't have a Vance level disaster popularity wise for her VP, this next week will be on fire w/ going to all battleground states...
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It's official with Hawaii…every electoral vote has now been certified! Next up, the electors voting on 12/14 each in their respective locations.
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Solid results from A+
@UpshotNYT
/
@SienaResearch
for Biden especially in AZ/WI. The MOE in PA is 2.4%, so this puts Biden up even outside the MOE. will be updated soon. Last time w/ this pollster:
AZ: 49-41 10/5
FL: 47-42 10/3
PA: 49-42 10/3
WI: 51-41 10/12
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Just added to ("FL votes"). This is the work I did earlier, but updated & enhanced. This is the early vote count in FL by party along with how
@rp_griffin
's projection of how people are voting by party. I will keep this updated through ED. Please retweet!
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Captain Obvious here...but it's become QUITE clear we have 4 groups of battlegrounds:
1. MN, MI, WI (Biden up 7+)
2. PA, NV, NE2 (Biden up 5-7)
3. FL, NC, AZ, ME2 (Biden up 2-3)
4. TX, OH, IA, GA (Either up <2)
They all neatly fit together and have for the most part recently.
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@DaltonRoss
"Double Survivor" w 2 separate Survivors going on at the same time. 39 days & 2 groups of Survivors each w 16 each to what they will think will be going back to the "old days". Once each group is down to 10, both groups merge into a single group of 20, & then normal rules apply!
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Florida *early vote* numbers updated at w my extrapolation based on
@rp_griffin
's numbers. I had to update the remaining % numbers because Trump could no longer mathematically win FL under this scenario if 2020 finished at 106% of the 2016 vote count.
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That seems like a lot and in 12 hours no less.
NEW: A General Services Administration spox tells NPR that as of 11 a.m. ET today there have been 306,422 visitors to referred from Taylor Swifts’s URL she shared on Instagram last night
402
8K
25K
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Wow...GA may come in much earlier than expected, especially considering that the early vote in GA represented 93.9% of the 2016 turnout in the state (nearly 4 million votes). If GA does go blue, it's over. Stay tuned to for my "Live Tally Board" tonight!
All counties in Georgia finished processing their absentee ballots on Friday, though a few more have trickled in in the meantime. They'll be, essentially, done counting *tonight*.
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@NateSilver538
updated as such with all of the updates from
@FiveThirtyEight
. Below is a summary of the changes today along with my work. If you like what you see, please like/rt/follow. Thanks!
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Last update for the night at with more movement towards Biden. I'll have an updated summary of all of today's updates in the morning as I'm sure more polls will trickle in tonight. Sleep well
#ElectionTwitter
, tomorrow's gonna be a long day!
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@EmersonPolling
Last time with
@EmersonPolling
,
It was Trump 46-42 over Biden and 44-38-7 Trump with RFK includes. So an 8-10 point shift towards Harris. will be updated in a couple of hours!
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I think it's time to put AZ to rest. It's over. For the love of all things, can everyone please call it now? This latest batch (from Pima) went:
Biden 48.7% / 51.3% Trump (5470 votes BTW the 2 of them). Trump now needs to win >84% of what remains. updated
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@NateSilver538
updated with these big changes with polling in FL, MI, NM and nationally.
-FL: Biden+3.0 ➠ 3.6
-MI: Biden+7.0 ➠ 7.2 (late last night)
-NM: Biden+12.6 ➠ 13.0
-National: Biden+8.2 ➠ 8.8
PA remains the tipping point state, now sitting at Biden+6.3
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I've finally caved and will try to keep the GA estimated vote count up to date at . Biden is now under 10k. I predict Biden will win by 3k.
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I am signing off. My last update for the night at . I'll be back around 7am ET.
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@Politics_Polls
@trafalgar_group
@InsiderPolling
Wow, an 8 point swing towards
@KamalaHarris
from the last time when
@realDonaldTrump
was up 47-37 two weeks ago.
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October surprise in a different sort of way?
-stocks sharply down
-COVID-19 cases sharply up (see European restrictions plus US cases)
-High profile COVID (see WS/Pence staff)
-Anonymous revealed (Miles Taylor)
-Hunter Biden attacks fell flat (see FoxNews interview w/ Giuliani)
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@NateSilver538
Ouch. That Rasmussen poll (Trump leading nationally) really knocked the numbers down. I wonder if they'll fall into a lower grade for 2022 & not quite have so much impact.
updated with this and much more. Please like/rt/follow if you find it interesting
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Not much more to do at , but I will keep updating the remaining 4 states at least daily until all states are resolved (today was just AZ & GA). Some changes made:
-Added percentage columns
-Updated map to indicate who's leading in AK, GA, NC
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Our first call for the election? It's coming...
Decision Desk HQ projects that
@JoeBiden
has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results:
4K
57K
148K
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Arizona has officially certified their results, giving Biden 295 EVs effectively (uncontested + certified states) w/ only Wisconsin remaining (tomorrow). As Sec Katie Hobbs said, this was "funner than watching paint dry".
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@NateSilver538
I am tracking this at (source of data: )
(Please see bold highlighted disclaimer about the estimated vote count before commenting about that aspect…thanks)
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@Politics_Polls
@MorningConsult
Last time
@MorningConsult
polled nationally (a week ago), it was:
@KamalaHarris
➠ 47%
@realDonaldTrump
➠ 46%
So in a period of just a week, we've seen a 3% shift towards Harris. And this is ahead of her VP pick and the convention.
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@Reuters
/
@Ipsos
(
#17
, 2.8, A) polling *POST-DEBATE* has
@KamalaHarris
up 47-42 nationally over
@realDonaldTrump
, gaining a point over the last time they were in the field.
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Morning update at where last night's big AZ update looked like this (pct n/i 3rd party):
6,252 votes: Biden 48.9% / 51.1% Trump
While some see Trump narrowing the lead, what's really happening is he's losing more potential as he needs 63.59% of the rest
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@NateSilver538
updated with some great things today including a live tally board with live probabilities from three forecasters including
@FiveThirtyEight
,
@TheEconomist
&
@jhkersting
!
Come check it out and like/rt/follow if you find it interesting!!
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And there we have it ladies & gentlemen. The numbers we've been waiting for in all of their glory
306-232 Biden
Nearly everyone has called GA & NC now except ironically for the most aggressive ones (for now):
@AP
,
@FoxNews
&
@DecisionDeskHQ
updated!
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨
PA has now flipped blue! Biden now leads by 5,587 with approximately 145,043 votes left. Stay with throughout the day to track the vote!
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨
Every major news org has now called AZ for Biden. With last night's vote dump of nearly 4K (in which Biden took 55%), Trump mathematically no longer has any chance (according to the state). updated!
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@NateSilver538
Holy cow, I can't wait to try this! I love the ingenuity of
@FiveThirtyEight
! I use them at to create lots of fun things myself. Check it out, and if you like my work, please rt/like/follow!
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Big 12,845 vote dump last night in AZ (Biden 45.4% / 54.6% Trump) which now puts Trump at needing nearly 76% of what remains which caused our 3rd call for Biden in the state (
@DecisionDeskHQ
) with about 22.5K votes left. updated (but need to fix flag)
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Probably my last update for the night at post-CCES/
@YouGovAmerica
(B) polls, which looked relatively favorable to Biden, specifically that +8 in PA. Biden remains ahead 351-187 polling wise. I updated my summary to be in polling order, not alpha order.
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@Politics_Polls
@MorningConsult
updated with this which continues to shift TX closer and closer to Biden in the average of polls. With this, Trump's lead is trimmed from 0.97% ➠ 0.59%.
Please rt/like/follow if you enjoy my work!
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Finally an update for Nevada at (without the bug I had in my last tweet)! Sorry...I'm just a solo guy here that is very tired and doing the best I can. :)
(Please read highlighted disclaimer before commenting about the estimated vote count)
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@NateSilver538
It sure looks like that with Ohio probably having an election night winner for their state. That would be a decisive victory should Biden win Ohio for sure. updated with the latest showing how everything looks in unique ways!
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@NateSilver538
Wow...this pushes Biden up to 7.9% nationally and GA now in his column by 0.03% (at least for now). updated with this and lots more!
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@NateSilver538
Wow...today is turning into a great day of polling for
@JoeBiden
. will be updated shortly with these polls from
@CNN
. For now, here's a sample of my work (click the link for full details)!
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The electors have now completed their vote. Final tally: 306-232 Biden with no faithless electors.
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@baseballot
@FiveThirtyEight
And in chart form at over the last 4 elections and since 1976 (along with my work) using historical data from
@FiveThirtyEight
!
If you like my work, please like/rt/follow!
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Today I hit 15,000 hits to my work at AND 1500 followers. Thank you all for your encouragement & suggestions!
Post-election, I'm going to miss all of the banter, engagement and fun dissecting all of the polls and other election goodies with everyone. :)
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1/ I've added a new sheet at called "Election Vote Counting" which you'll definitely want as a cheat sheet for election night. I also updated the "Election Night Scenarios" which I'll do one more time tomorrow. Lastly, I'll also be adding a live…
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