My piece in
@TheAtlantic
today:
Break Up Big Econ
The economics profession has become insular and status-obsessed, and not focused enough on making a positive impact on the world.
Saturday was my last day as Coeditor of AEJ: Applied. I am stepping down to serve as the Academic Dean
@Kennedy_School
. I learned a ton from the AEJ coeditor team and became a better researcher. Here is a final public audit of my 3.5 years at AEJ plus some reflections 1/X
I wrote a piece for
@TheAtlantic
about the growing perception that college is no longer worth it.
It's important for people to know that the value of a BA increases with work experience, peaking at ages 45-55.
Tuition (and loans) must be repaid long before that. College seems
"The long-term value of a bachelor’s degree is much greater than it initially appears,"
@ProfDavidDeming
writes.
"If a college professor or pundit tries to convince you otherwise, ask them what they would choose for their own children."
In the
@UpshotNYT
this morning – - coverage of an important paper by Raj Chetty and
@nhendren82
about race and economic opportunity in the US. Here are my initial thoughts on this landmark piece of research: 1/x
HKS's
@ProfDavidDeming
has been awarded the Sherwin Rosen Prize for Outstanding Contributions in the Field of Labor Economics by the Society of Labor Economists
@Kennedy_School
What I did right 1) I wrote every R&R decision letter like a contract. Do these X things and we will publish. And now here are some suggestions that you should do but don’t have to do. Very straightforward and transparent. 7/X
Professional news: I am leaving my post as coeditor at
@J_HumanResource
and starting this month as a coeditor at AEJ:Applied. Colleagues, please send me your papers! 1/x
This morning, Raj Chetty,
@john_n_friedman
and I released a new paper from
@oppinsights
about the determinants and causal impacts of admission at highly selective private colleges in the U.S. Here is the paper webpage 1/n
Last Friday, I was honored to receive the David Kershaw Award from APPAM. At the conference, I gave a talk entitled “What Does Education Do?” In case you missed it, I am going to TWEETSTORM the main points below 1/N
18 months after starting at AEJ: Applied, my first paper as coeditor is out in print! . It is ”ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduate, Earnings and Welfare” by
@JeffDenning
, Ben Marx and Lesley Turner 1/x
In my humble opinion, these results put an empirical nail in the coffin of the “Bell Curve” (care to disagree
@charlesmurray
?). Based on these results, I see no plausible argument that racial wage gaps are caused by differences in innate ability. END THREAD 12/12
At least one in six workers in management, business, and computer-related occupations is using generative AI at work every day.
Also, 22% of blue collar workers use AI.
From our new paper, "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI":
Finally, and most importantly – the fact that the black-white income gap is so large and persistent for men - but not for women - argues very strongly against any kind of genetic or innate ability-based explanation for racial wage gaps. 10/x
Thanks to
@tylercowen
for mentioning my new paper – “Why Do Wages Grow Faster for Educated Workers?” Of course he nails the point about human capital vs. signaling in dynamic settings
1/x
@Kennedy_School
2) I took some chances on promising papers that needed a lot of work, written by junior authors or authors with less of a network. Not for equity reasons, but b/c they are more likely to listen to feedback than established seniors. Those papers all turned out really well 9/X
2) The black/white income gap is driven entirely by males. I knew this was true to some extent, but the findings are truly shocking. Controlling for family income, black women earn MORE as adults than white women. 4/x
I am delighted to pass the directorship of the Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy to Sandra Susan Smith! Sandra will be an amazing leader. It has been an honor to serve the MWC community.
@InequalityHKS
@HarvardMWC
@Kennedy_School
On any given day, 21% of black men born to the lowest-income families are incarcerated. As an otherwise proud American, reading these results filled me with sadness and shame. 6/x
This seems like a good time to remind people of my colleague Desmond Ang’s terrific work showing that police violence harms the mental health and economic futures of high school students who live nearby
What does research have to say about the impact of the AK budget cuts? In my paper with Chris Walters we find that a 10 percent budget cut reduces enrollment by 3 percent, BA degrees by ~4.5 percent and certs/AAs by 14 percent 1/4
In August, 39% of U.S. adults ages 18-64 used generative AI. 24% used it at work at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and almost 1 in 9 workers used it every day.
From the “Rapid Adoption of Generative AI”, paper here:
Today I published the first installment of a multi-part series at Forked Lightning on technological disruption in the labor market.
To understand the future of work with AI, look to the past. The figure below stitches together U.S. employment data from 1880 to the present.
@Kennedy_School
Most importantly I avoided a long right tail. 2 of my papers hit 120 days, and 1 hit 133. Everything else was under 120. I’m very proud of that record. I know the pain of long publication delays, especially for those on the tenure track 5/X
Two years after the release of chatGPT, nearly 40% of Americans are using generative AI.
30% were using the internet 3 years after the Netscape IPO, and 20% were using PCs 3 years after the IBM PC.
Generative AI adoption has been faster than both.
@Kennedy_School
In conclusion – editing was a great experience. But the workload became tough to manage and I’m ready for a break. I hope this was helpful for folks out there who want to understand the publishing process! 13/x
I’m not saying that students should avoid STEM! But I am saying that we should avoid the impulse to make college curricula narrowly career-focused. College must prepare students for the next 40 years of working life, and for a future that none of us can imagine. 5/5
My conclusion - while Chetty and Hendren have not *proven* that labor market (rather than pre-market) discrimination against black men is a primary cause of racial inequality, they have pushed it into pole position. It is hard for me to see the facts any other way. 9/x
Black boys and girls obviously have common genes, and they have similar test scores throughout childhood. Yet outcomes are much worse for black men. Chetty and Hendren can’t nail down the exact causes, but they are clearly environmental. 11/x
Last week, Yale announced it would start requiring tests again, while U Michigan announced a permanent "test optional" policy.
Dartmouth found that "test optional" harms the low-income, first-gen applicants it is intended to help. I explain why in the thread below 1/x
They calculate that the government likely *fully recoups the cost of Pell grant aid* within 10 years because of the fiscal externality generated by earnings gains 5/x
First, the most important facts: 1) Black children have much higher rates of downward mobility. White children born in the top 20% are almost 5 times more likely to stay there than to drop to the bottom 20%. For black children, both outcomes are equally likely. 2/x
@Kennedy_School
This helps authors but it also helped me, because when the paper came back months later I could just go back to the list. I think it made the time from R&R to publication quicker and less painful for everyone. 8/x
3) After controlling for income, differences in family characteristics – including marriage rates, education and wealth – explain very little of the black-white income gap. 7/x
@Kennedy_School
Things I did wrong. 1) I was too harsh in the first few months. Looking back there were some papers near the beginning that I could have treated more generously. Perhaps I was trying to prove myself by imposing high standards. 11/X
This paper with
@benweidmann
is now forthcoming in Econometrica!
@ecmaEditors
. Preprint here: , and see below for original tweetstorm. Happily the paper has not changed too much...
In my classes, I strive to create an inclusive environment for all perspectives. That's partly why I avoid public statements outside my lane. But as a member of the Harvard community, I feel compelled to address the statement from 36 Harvard student groups
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2023 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Claudia Goldin “for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.”
#NobelPrize
@Kennedy_School
I gave a revise and resubmit to 6 percent of the papers I handled. So far, every single one of them has made it to publication. There are some fantastic papers in there! I also ended up rejecting some pretty fantastic papers. I won’t miss that. 6/X
This is just horrible. Had such great convos with
@Rodprime
while I was coding furiously at TSP on our school accountability project
@eduwonkette_jen
@SarahCohodes
. Such a funny, brilliant guy. I'm so sad. Rodney, you burned bright and left us way too soon. RIP my friend.
We are hiring – please spread the word! The Malcolm Wiener Center for Social Policy is seeking a Project Coordinator / Research Assistant. Here is the link to apply: 1/x
I don’t care who the authors are, I just want to publish the best papers I can. That is part selection but also part treatment - so I try to make them better along the way! END 17/17
Today I released a new paper called “Allocative Skill” with Andrew Caplin,
@leth_soren
, and
@weidmann
. We introduce a new way to measure the quality of economic decision-making called the Assignment Game. Play the game here!
1/x
I'm back, Twitter! Lots to say after a summer hiatus, but first priority is to congratulate
@KiraboJackson
on winning the Kershaw award
@APPAM_DC
! So well deserved. Honored to be in your company, my friend! 1/2
In principle, racial wage gaps could exist even if employers are race-neutral, because black workers might have accumulated fewer skills due to “pre-market” discrimination (poorly funded schools, polluted drinking water, family stress etc..) 9/x
TL;DR – community colleges should be the centerpiece of our economic recovery strategy. They can be local job creation hubs and pave pathways to economic opportunity - in partnership with employers and ed-tech innovators. 12/x
Least favorite part of the job – rejecting great papers, especially from junior faculty who are trying make their way in this brutal profession. I take no pleasure in it. 10/x
The Harvard Skills Lab is hiring for a Product Manager to work with
@Weidmann
and me + a small team of software developers to design and develop “soft skills” assessment tools. See the full job ad here . Please RT + send to your network, and/or apply! 1/x
4) Racial wage gaps exist everywhere, even within narrowly defined geographic areas. In 99% of the neighborhoods in the US, black boys will earn less as adults than the white boys who grew up next to them. 8/x
Its official - Raj Chetty is coming back to Harvard!
With the band back together on the East Coast, look out out for some exciting new work from the Equality of Opportunity Project coming soon...
They find big impacts of Pell aid on freshmen just beginning at 4 year colleges. An extra $1k of financial aid increases graduation within 7 years by about 15 percent. They also find earnings gains of 7-10 percent using TX admin data 3/x
She gave the paper an R&R but listed 3+ pages of detailed comments (points 1-17, with multiple sub-bullets!) with advice on how to write and frame it better and which referee comments I should listen to and which I should ignore 15/x
@Kennedy_School
3) I formed a prior on the paper and then selected referees that would help me update my prior. If the key issue was methodological, I’d pick an applied metrics referee. If it was about country context, a country expert. And so on….10/X
Second,
@dynarski
is coming back to
@hgse
! I know I'm late to the party, but that doesn't mean I can't celebrate. Such great news from two good friends!
For better or worse, I try to be clear and decisive. I will definitely get it wrong sometimes. But I can give authors timely and clear feedback to smooth the publication process. I do enjoy the job, but I will probably also enjoy the time back when my term ends :) 11/11
Congrats to
@Kennedy_School
Professor
@ProfDavidDeming
(MPP '05) who was awarded the David N. Kershaw Award by
@APPAM_DC
for his contributions to the field of public policy analysis and management.
@Kennedy_School
I handled 551 manuscripts (this includes some still pending, which I will continue to shepherd until they reach a final decision). That’s about 160 per year, or 1 every 2.3 days. I tried to be fast because it takes as much time to do it sooner as it does to do it later 2/X
Last week I had a “class reunion” via Zoom of my fall course “The Causes and Consequences of Inequality” – syllabus here . We talked about the economic and social consequences of Coronavirus 1/N
I also have a taste for really interesting descriptive work and/or papers that take the “old school” approach of attributing rich patterns in data to models (either explicit or implicit) - e.g. see my recent paper on social skills 10/x
Today I released a new paper called “Allocative Skill” with Andrew Caplin,
@leth_soren
, and
@weidmann
. We introduce a new way to measure the quality of economic decision-making called the Assignment Game. Play the game here!
1/x
@abacherhicks
@BillingsEcon
Last thing –
@abacherhicks
deserves most of the credit here, and was the driving force for this project from start to finish. If you like what you see, hire him! He is an HKS PhD student on the job market this year…. 12/12
The second reason is that a liberal arts education teaches valuable soft skills like critical thinking that are broad, transferable and “future-proof”. These skills are learned best through dialogue and deep engagement with material, even if it abstract 4/5
STEM majors earn more right out of college, but liberal arts majors gradually catch up and by age 40 there is little or no earnings difference between them 2/5
.
@JakeVigdor
I am confused about the implications you draw from this. The increase in R2 from Col 2 to 4 just shows how important HS FE are. It implies that the GPA-maximizing policy would weight high-income high schools very heavily. that seems bad!
@DLeonhardt
@OppInsights
And sure, the SAT can occasionally promote equity. But if it’s an equity agenda you want to pursue, standardized tests can’t hold a candle to:
1) Ending legacy admissions
2) Ending donor child admissions
3) Ending most athlete recruitment
Today on Forked Lightning:
Do colleges have a free speech problem?
What a study of social norms in Saudi Arabia teaches us about free expression on campus
X throttles links, so hopefully you know where to go but if not just check out my website - it's there!
@abacherhicks
@BillingsEcon
Overall, suspending middle schoolers at a higher-than-normal rate appears to harm kids substantially, especially African-American boys. So this evidence supports recent calls to limit discipline in schools, such as the law just passed in California (SB 419) 11/X
My latest
@nytimesbusiness
Why the risk of AI isn’t about technology, but about politics and economic fairness. We need a new social contract to make the jobs of the future *good* jobs, so we can all share the bounty of technological progress. Enjoy!
@Kennedy_School
2) I wore down and started giving less feedback than I should to rejected manuscripts. It didn’t change any decisions, but when pressed for time I focused less on feedback and helping authors improve the paper. I’d rather cut feedback than be too slow, but better to do both. 12/x
For my faculty colleagues – or others with a platform – here is one way you can make a difference. Alums of my classes this year (my freshman seminar, and SUP-206 / Econ 1084, “The Causes and Consequences of Inequality”) decided to donate to
@ColorOfChange
1/4
The primary question I have in mind when reading a paper is “what have I learned from reading this that I did not already know?” This is a heuristic that helps me weigh impact/contribution vs. methodological strength 6/x