Patrick Gillespie
@Pat_Gillespie
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@business bureau chief in Argentina. Email: pgillespie29 @bloomberg .net. RTs not endorsements.
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Joined May 2011
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Argentine TV outlet
@CronicaTV
displays this racist image with the headline “Apu Arrived” as India Prime Minister
@narendramodi
arrives in Buenos Aires for the
#G20
.
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In Argentina, tourists are paying with huge wads of cash (like these ones) for basic stuff like restaurant bills as inflation nears 100% and the largest peso bill is worth less than $4
Our story:
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As Senators in Argentina vote on bill that would legalize abortion,
@todonoticias
has all-male panel to discuss the issue. How they didn’t anticipate the optics of this blows me away.
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Signs I’ve been in Argentina awhile — I’m starting to send WhatsApp audio messages over a minute long and part of me thinks it’s totally normal
One family member in the US: “Why on earth did you send me a voicemail? Just call.”
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.
@StephenMillerAL
told
@jaketapper
that
@CNN
doesn’t devote any time to covering the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. We do.
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American tourists are back in BA
At the ATM just now:
“10% withdrawal fee? Ridiculous! No wonder this country is broke. Can’t wait to get back to Atlanta”
I didn’t have the heart to tell him he was taking out pesos at the official rate. Bienvenido 😂
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Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is facing a wave of criticism after praising Argentina’s “miracle” economic recovery
I asked him yesterday if miracle was the right word choice. Stiglitz replied: “Maybe that was too strong.”
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After Milei repeatedly said “there’s no money,” taking a trip to Antarctica less than a month into his presidency doesn’t really align with that austere message. Backfire vibes
Javier Milei visitará hoy sábado la Antártida, después de pasar la noche en Río Gallegos.
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Argentina has the most Covid-19 deaths in the world, per million people on a 7-day basis.
Credit to
@Sebaboyd
on chart. With
@DanCancel
.
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Milei delivered one of the most somber inauguration speeches I’ve ever heard
.
@JMilei
: "No hay alternativa al ajuste. No hay alternativa al shock. Naturalmente eso impactará de modo negativo sobre el nivel de la actividad, el empleo, los salarios reales y la cantidad de pobres e indigentes. Habrá estanflación, es cierto, pero no es algo muy distinto a lo
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On using credit cards: If you use a non-Argentine issued credit card, you will be charged the official exchange rate (155/USD) while on the black market people get, today, about 288/USD. Hence the use of cash
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Dollar deposits in Argentina’s banking system have declined every single day since the central bank’s new currency controls were announced Sept. 15. Since then, Argentines have withdrawn $2.09 billion in USD deposits.
This chart from Oct. 6 sadly only previewed the trend
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A year ago today, Argentines voted in a primary election that shocked the world, deepening an ongoing crisis.
Aug. 11, 2019:
Official exchange rate: 45 pesos/USD
Unofficial exchange rate: 45/USD
Aug. 11, 2020
Official rate: 73/USD
Unofficial rate: 131/USD
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@VanCity_Chris
@jaketapper
@StephenMillerAL
@CNN
They do. Here’s another, it appeared on air, great piece by
@PoppyHarlowCNN
and
@byHeatherLong
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Veronica Rappoport left a comfortable life in London to help end a currency crisis at home. Now she’s playing a key role to revamp the central bank’s communication strategy after months of missteps before her arrival
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Argentina has lost over 20,000 private sector employers this year, and the coronavirus isn’t the root cause of many companies’ decision to leave.
Our story for
@BW
, w/
@JPSpinetto
@CLindblad1
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Apologies, seeing some confusion here over my word “like”: This picture is a stack of bills after exchanging USD, not for paying a restaurant tab. But you’ll see in the story that tourists are paying restaurant tabs with huge stacks of peso bills
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Argentina’s new economy minister Sergio Massa will lay out his economic strategy at a **7:30pm** press conference.
I’ll never understand why Argentine economy ministers can’t just talk during business hours — feels like that would help shore up some credibility
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Or the obvious need to have women on the panel, or an all-female panel
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Argentina is a deeply polarized nation. The political divide here makes America’s look laughable. But all Argentines wear a face mask. It’s not even close to a partisan issue. I’m 5,000 miles away from home and a lot further from understanding how Americans got divided over this
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President Macri’s social media team captured a friendly moment between Trump and Putin at the G20
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Argentina Midterm Election results as of now
Lower House
Prov. Buenos Aires
Opposition: 40%
Govt: 38%
City Buenos Aires
Opp: 47%
Govt: 25%
Peronist government currently losing in six of eight senate races, at risk of losing Senate majority for first time since 1983
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Big: Argentina announces Mercosur and the European Union have reached a free trade agreement.
EU agreed to begin lowering tariffs immediately while Mercosur tariffs will be lowered over 10-15 year period.
All this happening as the world awaits Trump-Xi Summit at G20
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US economic growth in....
2017: 2.3%
2016: 1.5%
2015: 2.9%
2014: 2.6%
2017 wasn’t really remarkable in a growth sense
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Argentina is ramping up currency controls in a bid to protect its dwindling reserve of dollars at the central bank.
Today, if you want to exchange pesos for $100, you also have to pay $65 in taxes. And that’s just one measure.
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Argentina’s government is running out of money and losing popularity fast. Clear rifts within a broad coalition are making things worse
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Live results of Argentina’s presidential primary election will be published here tonight
@business
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Big News: ARGENTINA WILL ASK IMF FOR EXTENDED FUND FACILITY PROG: GUZMAN
Argentina is signing up for structural economic reforms in its new IMF program, a big pívot for a government that’s been doing piecemeal policymaking for almost a year
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The Peronists in Argentina lost their Senate majority in the midterm elections Sunday, something that hasn’t happened since democracy returned in 1983
W/
@jdorosario
@JPSpinetto
@cmillanr
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Things are getting worse faster in Argentina 🇦🇷
• Dolar blue reached 1,000 pesos per USD; it was 500 in July
• Banks accuse Milei of fear mongering
• Cargo terminal at Ezeiza International suspended for 72 hours
• GM suspended production at its only car plant in Argentina
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Cuando el portero de tu edificio sabe que sos periodista pero no sabe para qué medio:
“Patrick, estoy escuchando en la radio que según esta agencia, se llama Bloomberg, la economía va crecer este año. Todo mentira. Puro humo. Son todos comprados acá.” 😂😂
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Argentina central bank sharply tightens capital controls: Citizens can only buy $200 USD per month, compared with previous ceiling of $10,000 per month.
New reality already after Alberto Fernandez’s election win tonight
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Argentina’s jobs recovery is so heavily concentrated in tech that the overall economy keeps losing companies even as it’s gaining back jobs
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Hoy cumplo 4 años en Argentina con
@business
. También, estudié acá en 2011 y volví a vivir en BA por parte de 2012-13. Tal como hace una década, estoy sumamente agradecido a este país y su gente por todo — amistades, enseñanzas, experiencias y mucho más. Abrazo enorme 🇦🇷
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Just realized the Argentine government’s agreement with food companies to fix prices on 64 products for six months includes beer and wine. Government says list is for “essential” products. 🤔
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I’m replacing the Messi of bureau chiefs. A true mission impossible. Caro set the bar high on how to lead with grace and by example. I’m grateful for our time working side by side. And now, I’m lucky to lead this awesome team in BA as the next BC. We’ll miss you, Caro!
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We’re hiring in Argentina! Bloomberg is looking for a new economy & government reporter to be based in Buenos Aires 🇦🇷
Apply here:
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Argentina’s brutal jobs report
10,400 jobs lost in February from January. Sixth straight month of losses.
From a year ago, total employment down by a whopping 252,000 jobs.
Hard hit industries: Manufacturing, retail, transportation and construction
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Argentines pulled $700 million in US dollar deposits from banks on Monday and Tuesday alone after President Macri’s stunning loss in the primary vote. Story by
@ioliveradoll
on
@TheTerminal
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They’re gonna need a bigger stadium
El primer gol de Messi con Inter Miami 🤯🤯👏👏
Messi scores in his first match with the club to give us the lead in the 94th minute.
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Strangers in the Night: Porteños in Buenos Aires got to run in the parks tonight for the first time since quarantine started March 20. A deep fog didn’t deter many
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BREAKING: Argentina announces national lockdown until March 31 to contain Coronavirus outbreak
Argentines must stay home, except for some exceptional cases (govt officials, military, police, etc). Citizens may only go out for essential services, like supermarkets and pharmacies
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Heavy heart as Proper, my favorite restaurant in Buenos Aires, closes for good today, unable to survive the pandemic. Their ribeye remains the best steak I’ve had at a BA bistro. Great moments with friends, family and colleagues over long, wine-drenched dinners.
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IMF pushing the boundaries of English grammar with this report title:
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Milei: “No hay lugar para el gradualismo”
Buckle up 🇦🇷
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A month later, Saturday night 8p
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Don Julio, Argentina’s most famous steakhouse, 9pm, prime dinner hour in Buenos Aires. Never thought I’d see this.
(Don Julio has converted into a high-end butcher shop for the quarantine)
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Argentina is taking a dramatic approach to saving jobs in the Covid era: Since March, it’s been illegal for companies to fire workers, a measure no other major economy has taken for so long.
But the strategy is actually deepening a historic jobs crisis
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Not exactly reassuring, but this is Argentina’s sovereign risk over the years for a little perspective
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President Fernández says late prosecutor Alberto Nisman committed suicide in 2015, contradicting his own views before he became president.
Fernández also says he hopes the current prosecutor urging a prison sentence for VP Cristina Kirchner “doesn’t do something like that”
🔴 EN VIVO | Alberto Fernández en A DOS VOCES: “Nisman se suicidó. Espero que el Fiscal Luciani no haga algo así”
#AlbertoFern
ándezEnTN
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Argentina’s government is pumping so much cash into the economy, its mint is at full capacity and it’s now importing peso bills being printed in Europe.
@ioliveradoll
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Argentina’s inexplicable political paths.
Next president will either be:
• Economy Minister overseeing economy in recession with 138% inflation
• An economist who polled in third, finished first, became frontrunner, then fell to 2nd, and then first in runoff
Magic realism
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Damned if you do, damned if you don’t?
1. Peso plunges because markets are fed up with Macri’s plan to gradually cut spending.
2. Macri agrees to cut spending faster. Peso still falls
3. Now peso falling b/c markets fear faster spending cuts risk Macri’s re-election chances
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Now the hard work begins in Argentina. The big question: Is there enough political will for a plan that restores faith in the economy?
W/
@EMPosts
@JPSpinetto
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Took some time off to hike Volcán Lanín in Patagonia with friends. Back to the news next week.
Argentina 🇦🇷❤️
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Martin Guzman’s Mission Impossible: Rescue Argentina from the deep abyss of recession and default by negotiating with Wall Street titans amid a global pandemic in a country with deeply polarized politics.
Our profile, with
@ethanbronner
@BenBartenstein
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Argentina officially fell into recession today. Here’s what it’s been like for Argentines in recent years:
2014: Recession
2015: Growth
2016: Recession
2017: Growth
2018: Recession
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Argentina is legalizing digital driver’s licenses, accessible on cell phones for nation’s 19 million drivers. Often stuck in time, the country’s paper-laden bureaucracy actually leaped ahead on this subject.
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One of the oddities in Argentina: When people talk about the peso gaining or losing value, they just say “the dollar” rose or fell 🤔
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Argentina’s private sector lost over 195,000 jobs in May, more than double the losses from April. It also lost another 6,000 employers in May, according to data from Argentina’s tax agency AFIP.
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With nearly 60% inflation in Argentina:
A two-hour domestic flight costs the same as a month of college tuition…a new iPhone goes for half a year’s average rent or more
W/
@BenHollandDC
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Coming back to Argentina after 10 days abroad, knowing I’ve already fallen victim to a national saying that roughly goes: If you leave Argentina for 10 days, you’ll understand nothing when you come back. Leave for 10 years, and everything is the same
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Argentines cut back on buying dollars in February
Net purchases of foreign currency: USD $621 million
Down from $1.3 billion in January.
Welcome sign for the central bank as it tries to stabilize peso and avoid a mass flight to USD before election.
Source:
@BancoCentral_AR
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Argentine officials sending mixed signals today. They say not letting food prices rise doesn’t constitute freezing prices, it’s merely a voluntary agreement. But if it’s voluntary, can’t firms drop out if they want? No, say officials. Once companies agree, they must fix prices.
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99% inflation in Argentina
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Argentina’s president promised a pragmatic approach when he came into office. But a year and a half later, he’s backing the far-left wing of his coalition as a rudderless economy is having its revenge
With
@jdorosario
@ethanbronner
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Argentine President Alberto Fernández implemented one of the world’s strictest covid lockdowns last year. At the time, he insisted those who break the rules will face punishment
Also at the time: He hosted a birthday party. No face masks.
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As a potential debt default looms near, Argentines have withdrawn nearly $1 billion in dollar deposits from their bank accounts in just the past 14 business days. More
@TheTerminal
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Argentina sent a commercial passenger plane, instead of a military cargo plane, to Moscow to pick up the doses — read CARGO — of the Russia vaccine that still hasn’t been officially approved by Argentine health authorities
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One of Argentina’s most famous steakhouses, Don Julio, has made a nice comeback in 2020. But the restaurant across the street is now boarded up with the graffiti sign “Who Else?”
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The Mexican peso is up 17% YTD on the dollar, a reversal from 2016
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Less than 1% of formal salaried workers in Argentina will pay income tax now
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Real winner of the G20? Argentine steakhouses
Merkel — Don Julio
Macron — Las Lilas
MBS — La Cabrera
Theresa May — Happening
Even Trump-Xi summit featured grilled sirloin as the main course
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Poverty in Argentina rose to 32% at the end of 2018, up from 25% the prior year, the government announced today.
Today’s numbers also continue to show there’s a massive gap between wage growth and inflation
January inflation: 49.3%
January wage growth: 32.2%
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Taylor Swift fans in Argentina are getting a big bargain for tickets compared to US prices, much in part to inflation over 100% and multiple exchange rates
With
@gutavsaraiva
@fisheri
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Finally learned that when Argentines say “olvídate!” the closest translation in New York would be fuhhgeddabowtit. Buenos Aires starting to feel like home
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.
@nytimes
, you hired a great person.
@tannercurtis
found my wallet on the street, messaged me on Instagram and I picked it up. He also declined to accept my offer to pay for beers and guac where he was eating. I can’t begin to describe my gratitude. Please give him a raise!
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On Puerto Rico's south side, FEMA aid arrived in one town on Monday for the first time
@mjfCNN
@leylasantiago
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IMF’s Werner, who oversees Argentina’s record $56 billion credit line, told us this about Alberto Fernandez’s incoming government, which takes over in 20 days:
“We don’t know what Argentina wants,” Werner said. “We are still waiting for more technical engagements...”
EXCLUSIVE: The IMF plans to vote on Mexico's request to renew its Flexible Credit Line before it expires Nov. 28.
Mexico is asking to cut the size from current $74 billion, saying risks have abated.
Have they REALLY, though? 🤔
Story w/
@Pat_Gillespie
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US had a surplus with Canada in 2015 and 2016. Through the first three quarters of 2017, US had a surplus.
We have large trade deficits with Mexico and Canada. NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal for U.S.A. Massive relocation of companies & jobs. Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed. Also, Canada must..
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Mom and Dad: Pack your bags. Christmas is in Buenos Aires this year
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Price increases in Buenos Aires, from a year ago:
Beef: 63%
Fruit: 83%
Clothing: 81%
Medicine: 51%
Restaurants: 43%
Cars: 77%
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Remember that big New York Times story on China’s space station in Argentina as a symbol of its influence in LatAm?
With a Peronist government back in charge, the space agreement is picking up where it left off in 2015
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The worse Argentina’s 100% inflation gets, the more Javier Milei’s outsider presidential campaign stands to benefit. And Milei knows it.
@ioliveradoll
@cmillanr
and I spoke with Milei. The profile 👇🏼
Photos by Erica Canepa and
@_sarahpabst_
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Entrar un ascensor en NYC con onda de Buenos Aires
Yo: “Good morning”
Todos: Silencio
Que lindo estar en casa por un segundo
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Argentina wants to reach a deal with the IMF by May, a timeline a top IMF official is now calling ambitious. W/
@EMPosts
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Buenos Aires usually sees a mass exodus in January as Argentines hit the beach. Not so this year, with the peso down 50% and economy in recession. Just one sign is the packed subway. Photos taken between Jan. 8-22
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Brutal:
Economists see inflation in Argentina at 40% in 2019, up from 29% estimate at beginning of the year
Economy estimated to contract 1.3% this year, 2020 forecast cut too
Peso seen ending year at 51.2/USD, it’s at 44.4 today
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Our story: Argentina extends price freeze on TV, internet and mobile plans until the end of 2020 and prohibits future price hikes without government approval.
W/
@cmillanr
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What an Argentine national strike looks like on the Ezeiza Airport departures board — starts once the clock strikes midnight.
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Here’s our big picture take on Argentina’s economic crisis and debt strategy nearly two months since President Fernández took office.
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Argentines are finding it nearly impossible to exchange pesos for dollars at the bank after the government ramped up currency controls last week.
As the chart shows, demand for dollars hasn’t been cooling.
With
@ioliveradoll
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Ever since a friend ordered this wine at a restaurant in the US, I’ve been watching the price at my local grocery store in Buenos Aires
Sept 2020: 270 pesos
June 2021: 370
Oct 2021: 470
Not a bad wine for US$2!
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Argentina’s dolar blue, the illegal exchange rate, reached 200 pesos per dollar today.
When I came back to BA in April 2018, it was 20 pesos per dollar
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