The NAM model continues to trend further north with
#severe
#weather
potential for Tuesday. All hazard risk would exist if NAM trends continue as such.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
{1/2} When we discussed earlier that nothing had changed regarding the
#severe
#weather
risk for Friday, here is what we mean. The surface based instability is almost off the scale. Some areas in
#NWOhioWx
could exceed 5,000 j/kg of CAPE by Friday afternoon.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
Just incredible. Now up to 30-40% chance of at least *18* inches of snow by Friday morning for portions of
#NWOhioWx
.
It is now very clear that the region is in the bullseye for the heaviest snowfall.
#OHwx
#weather
This is what we are getting at. Very poor communication between the NWS in Wilmington, Cleveland, and Northern Indiana on this setup. Inexcusable. I have had multiple people let us know about this. Communication has to get better on the watch/warning setup,
#OHwx
#NWOhioWx
We are closely monitoring the
#severe
#weather
risk for Wednesday. Significant severe weather can not be ruled out. Trends will be monitored closely.
#NWOhioWx
#OHWx
.
@NWSWPC
has indicated that Flash Flooding will be likely with the severe thunderstorm line as it moves towards Northwest Ohio later tonight.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
#Severe
thunderstorm risk increasing for later today and especially tonight. Risk for damaging winds, some of which could be significant.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Northwest Flow Pattern will be setting up once again by the start of next week. This will open the door to MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) development over the Great Lakes region including Northwest Ohio.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Big picture reset this evening. Storm that produced a tornado in Oakwood (Paulding County) currently riding the Henry/Putnam County line. Tornado Warning for Mercer and Auglaize County for a storm that produced a tornado near Fort Recovery. Movement of both storms east to
We are closely monitoring severe weather chances for Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Possbililty is there for more than one round of storms. All hazard risk remains (Wind, Hail, Tornadoes).
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
We are monitoring the severe weather situation closely. Currently there are zero active warnings in Northwest Ohio. Warm front moving to the north of the region resulting in tornado producing storms in lower Michigan. Those storms moving northeast.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Increasing risk for more
#severe
thunderstorms tomorrow into tomorrow night. Damaging winds at least 60-70 MPH main risk. Some tornado risk as well. Torrential rainfall likely.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Heading deeper into June, there will be a pattern change. The change will be towards northwest flow aloft. With this pattern,
#severe
#weather
chances enter the picture. Severe storm clusters is the main mode during this pattern.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
Saying that it is unstable this afternoon is putting it very lightly. In fact, the atmosphere has become exceptionally unstable heading into the afternoon. SBCAPE over 5,000 J/kg, with MLCAPE over 3,000 J/kg.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Tornado Watch for Northwest Ohio. The watch is in effect through 7 PM this evening. In addition, large hail and damaging winds possible as well.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Incredibly dangerous low wind chill temperatures looking more likely by Friday morning. Wind chill temperatures to -40°F are not out of the question.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Tornado chances are increasing for tonight's Mesoscale Convective System. Bigger risk continues from wind, some of which could still be significant.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
With the sunshine through early afternoon, the atmosphere has become very unstable. MLCAPE values over 3,000 J/kg in
#NWOhioWx
currently. Widespread damaging wind risk is increasing.
#OHwx
#weather
Dangerous line of
#severe
thunderstorms that will eventually find their way towards Northwest Ohio later tonight. Movement is east southeast.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Tornado Watch for Williams, Fulton, Lucas, Henry, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Seneca County until 3 PM. Damaging wind/hail risk as well.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
For now, it is just the NAM (3km and 12km) that would give
#NWOhioWx
an all hazard risk Tuesday. Most of the other forecast data keeps the risk south of Interstate 70.
#OHwx
#weather
It is also not outside of the realm of possibility that Winter Storm Watches will start to be issued within the next 24-36 hours for
#NWOhioWx
. Stay tuned.
#OHwx
#weather
Tomorrow in northwest Ohio is looking like a significant tornado event, given the uptrend in the extent and timing of the instability axis. The heaviest instability now appears to be interacting with some of the more favorable wind profiles. 10# looks warranted.
Not very often do we see a 30 hatched area for very large (to potentially giant) hail in this corner of the Buckeye State. Ingridents are starting to come together for a very active afternoon and evening.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#severe
#weather
Major to extreme on the Winter Storm Severity Index for
#NWOhioWx
through Thursday evening at the very least. This *could* easily end up being a crippling snow storm.
#OHwx
#weather
Northwest
#Ohio
has not seen this substantial of
#severe
#weather
risk since the Moderate risk last year when there was one severe storm complex after the other.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
With the daily shower/storm chances for the next several days, rainfall amounts could be adding up. Amounts could range from 1.50" along the Michigan State Line to over 2.50" along and south of US Highway 30.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
With the heat upcoming in the forecast, also could offer risks for
#severe
#weather
with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) as they move around the *Ring of Fire*. Right now it is a tad early to pinpoint such risk. It is something to keep in mind.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
While not seen very often, There is a 20-30% chance of at least 18 inches of snow for the region through Friday Night at the very least. Remarkable.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Dangerous
#severe
#weather
looking more and more likely for Northwest Ohio later tonight. Destructive wind main hazard. Some risk for QLCS tornado activity.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
Northwest Ohio running roughly two to four inches of precipitation above normal in the last 90 days. More rain chances return this upcoming week.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Rain, along with embedded thunderstorms, developing back to the west tonight. That area will be moving through Northwest Ohio now through the rest of tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is expected.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
The parent storm that produced the Kenton tornado earlier today is now crossing into
#PAwx
west of Pittsburgh. That would amount to roughly 164 mile long track storm.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
#severe
Can not stress enough that the
#severe
#weather
risk will ramp up late tonight into the early morning hours on Thursday. Widespread damaging winds looking more and more likely.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
A look at the various forecast models for the upcoming storm this weekend. Using a blend of these, the distinct possibility is there for heavy snow accumulations. Stay tuned.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
We are monitoring the risk for
#severe
#weather
on Wednesday for
#NWOhioWx
. Most of the region is in the *Enhanced* Risk. Damaging winds and large hail are the main risks. A tornado or two can not be ruled out either.
#OHwx
Round one of storms down. More to come. Next round of storms for tonight forecast to develop back in north Illinois this evening. Those storms will move east southeast towards Northwest Ohio overnight.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
This afternoon's HRRR continues to suggest a severe MCS moving southeast through
#NWOhioWx
early Thursday morning. Damaging wind and some hail likely.
#OHwx
#weather
The area of heaviest snow for late tonight through Monday morning will be along the US Highway 30 corridor. 6-9" of snow can be expected. A few locations could reach double digits with the snowfall.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Like we mentioned earlier, Wednesday looks to offer a
#severe
#weather
risk for Northwest Ohio. Main hazards right now from damaging winds along with some hail.
#OHwx
#weather
Round 1 of severe storm wrapping up. Next round back crossing Lake Michigan will be moving southeast into Northwest Ohio overnight. Some
#severe
risk will persist the rest of tonight.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Growing line of severe thunderstorms in Defiance and Henry County this hour. Movement is southeast. Large hail and damaging winds are likely.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weaher
In terms of snow, we are going to increase total accumulation to
4-6 inches. Blizzard conditions can not be ruled out. Make sure you have more than one way of receiving weather information starting tomorrow night.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
There will be thunderstorms later tonight for much of Northwest Ohio. While the severity will not be as great, they could be loud.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Instability increasing currently across Northwest
#Ohio
. We are fully expected the instability to increase through the coming hours.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Risk for very large (and up to potentially giant) hail is increasing for later today. Do not be shocked to see multiple reports of 2 inch diameter hail. Isolated potential as well for hail baseball size or even larger.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Risk for
#severe
thunderstorms continue, especially this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind primary hazard. Lower risk for some hail.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
[2/2] Explosive thunderstorm development is looking more likely. If the forecasted MCS leaves outflow boundaries behind, the
#tornado
risk could increase with the storms that latch on to such boundaries.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
It is kind of ironic we mention this as June 29th is coming up fast on us. That day ten years ago featured the Super Derecho that plowed through portions of the region, including Findlay, Lima, and Kenton.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
Confidence is increasing for a potential high-impact Winter storm for
#NWOhioWx
the middle of next week. Details still to be ironed out. Stay tuned.
#OHwx
#weather
Some locations in Northwest Ohio next week have the chance to reach 100°F for highs. NWS Heat Risk pegging at a 4 on 1 to 4 scale in terms of the dangerous heat.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#weather
.
@bamwxcom
Just noticed that the 18z GFS has the heaviest snow area pushed back into
#NWOhioWx
by New Year's Day. It had been much farther east.
#OHwx
- Jim M.
Tonight's short term forecast model data is about in line with our thinking. Using a blend of these, significant snowfall is not out of the question. One thing to keep in mind, especially Sunday, is that the temps will be very close to freezing. Stay tuned.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
#wx
Essentials for tomorrow's
#severe
#weather
risk:
1) Lapse Rates more than favorable for (very) large hail.
2) PWATs along with potential for training storms will lead to flooding risk.
3) Damaging wind risk as well. Non-zero tornado risk.
Stay tuned.
#NWOhioWx
#OHwx
Current view from a Troopers car in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Current conditions outside of Cheyenne are -18 with zero visibility.
Video from Wyoming Highway Patrol