Advait Moharir
@MoharirAdvait
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Research Associate @CAFRAL_India • Interested in macro, applied econometrics and development • econ @unisiena , @azimpremjiuniv • Optimist
Mumbai, India
Joined June 2018
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🚨 Small public good alert 🚨
I have extracted all the variables from all 15 levels from the latest household consumption and expenditure survey. See repo below to access!
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The systematic dismantling of one of the largest and most accessible public transport systems in the world has largely gone unnoticed.
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Great example of why scientists making social commentary need to GO READ A BOOK on rural India. Local "vaidyas" are the only resort in many villages, due to lack of PHCs. Direct your critique to lack of local govt spending, not people stepping up and doing the best they can.
Wow! The Government is now giving 'honorable' civilian awards to quacks for their contributions to the "field of medicine." Is this some kind of sick joke?
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I am begging people discoursing on new tax rules to understand that if you make ~ 3 LPA you are in the top 10% of the income distribution.
Ergo, the actual "middle class" does NOT pay income tax in India.
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The latest economic survey has the following quote:
"unlike in advanced economies, in India economic growth and inequality converge in terms of their effects on socio-economic indicators."
A long thread on why this is not the case.. (1/N)
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This is the funniest graph ever. Take two arbitrary periods, see average and say "structural shift".
Econometrics died a painful death
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has anyone else noticed that MoSPI has released not one, but THREE survey datasets back to back, within days of the election, one of them being a super imp. unorganized enterprises survey
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A small request to all profs/organizations in the West hiring pre-docs/RAs:
please do mention if you sponsor visas/work permits, because that literally is one of the major deal makers/breakers for us!
Cc:
@econ_ra
@predoc_org
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Hi all!
My replication paper with
@FedeAbides
is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics!
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My paper on fiscal rules and debt dynamics in India is out in MFEME! Short summary below (1/n)
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Now out in
@epw_in
Link:
🚨New short working paper!🚨
@rajendran_naray
and I examine the relationship between inter-state inequality and welfare using unsupervised learning methods like PCA and clustering.
Here is what we find (🧵below)
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My paper on debt dynamics in India, part of my undergraduate thesis, has been accepted for publication!
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My short note on the medium-run evolution of Indian public debt is out in
@epw_in
! I evaluate how the debt ratio changes in 4 post-pandemic scenarios.
TL;DR: targetting debt ratio using monetary policy is more effective than cutting spending.
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These three books are a pretty good summary of what I like in econ :)
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It seems my wish was granted :) Congratulations to Dr. Goldin!
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Paper looks interesting, and like all papers on India, the data always ends in 2011 :)
Many developing economies are growing fast with limited industrialization. Service-led growth or mere income effects? We provide a novel methodology to structurally estimate productivity in service industries using micro data and an application to India
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🚨New short working paper!🚨
@rajendran_naray
and I examine the relationship between inter-state inequality and welfare using unsupervised learning methods like PCA and clustering.
Here is what we find (🧵below)
The latest economic survey has the following quote:
"unlike in advanced economies, in India economic growth and inequality converge in terms of their effects on socio-economic indicators."
A long thread on why this is not the case.. (1/N)
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What are the determinants of India's trade ratio and how has their relative importance changed over the last 40 years?
My new paper (out in
@DevandChg
), co-authored with
@arjun_jayadev
and
@JWMason1
tackles this question.
PDF:
See 🧵 below (1/N)
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Noah's incredibly moral vacuity aside: India's growth and escape from poverty is not something special attributible to Modi. A very similar trajectiry can be plausibly achieved without him. We are not even in the right growth trajectory (highly unequal services-led growth)
Similarly, I want India to get rich as fast as possible no matter what you think about Modi. A billion people escaping poverty is a moral imperative that simply overrides concerns about the character of a regime.
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Simple reason why everyone gives up on macro
UG micro: consumer producer bhr etc.
Grad micro: consumer, producer bhr but RIGOROUSLY
UG macro:Y=C+I+G
Grad macro: Consider the present value Hamiltonian in Hilbert space...
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After a short but exciting stint in the world of RCTs, I am happy to announce that I have joined
@cafral_rbi
as a Research Associate!
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📢 Tiny public good announcement📢
I have matched Google Mobility COVID data for India to district LGD codes!
Find the repo with codes and matched dataset below
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peak humour from
@rajendran_naray
Does anyone have overall State wise Gini coefficient data from 2011. Not by Rural and Urban. Total. Please DM
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Hi all!
Got the opportunity to write up a short (and hopefully more accessible!) piece summarizing findings from my recently published paper.
Thanks
@NathanTankus
for this opportunity!
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Graduated, the Italian way.
MSc. Economics, done and dusted!
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Took the plunge and finally made a website :)
You can find all my papers, replication code, profile etc. here
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Literally everyone to me, after learning about my new job 😒
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This is a very rich, publicly available, representative dataset on unincorporated enterprises that we have tried to make available in a ready-to-use format.
Hoping you all find it useful for your research endeavors!
🚨yet another, public good alert 🚨
@MoharirAdvait
and I have extracted all variables from 16 levels of ASUSE survey for both years, 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Refer to the repository below to access it.
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@rajendran_naray
and I write about why inequality matters, and make a case for inheritance taxation, in today's
@the_hindu
.
Would love to hear amyour thoughts!
Online link:
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To be very clear: I am not supporting the use of alternative medicine here, but highlighting WHY that becomes the last resort.
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I am a savarna Hindu and was only ever treated with kindness by Asim in my time at APU.
This tweet is absolute bullshit.
ये हैं प्रो. असीम सिद्दीकी। बेंगलुरु के अज़ीम प्रेमजी विश्वविद्यालय में पढ़ाते है।
इनकी ख़ासियत यह है कि ये सवर्ण हिंदू छात्रों को खुले आम धमकाते हैं कि गौरी लंकेश और रोहित वेमुला की मौत का बदला तुमलोगों का कैरियर तबाह करके लेंगे।
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I propose a new Trilemma, called the RA Trilemma:
Only 2 out of the following 3 are possible:
(1) Coding skillz
(2) Latex supremacy
(3) Expanding knowledge frontier as an economist
Go figure!
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Lowest hanging fruit: (1) district and lower unit concordance from earliest possible Census, and it's mapping to other key sources (NSS etc).
MoSPI launches the Data Innovation Lab- A pioneering initiative in official statistics. Have a challenge? Share it with us and let's innovate together. Submit your ideas now!
#DataInnovationLab
#Collaboration
#Innovation
@_saurabhgarg
@mygovindia
@PibMospi
@PIB_India
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Dr.
@SubramanianKri
, I went over
@arvindsubraman
's paper and the panel specification DOES in fact, include country fixed effects.
Could you please clarify?
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gadkari is hindutva + capex. stop going crazy about him.
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Hi! CAFRAL is currently hiring Research Associates and Interns. To facilitate this process, we are hosting our first online AMA session this Sunday between 11-1230 PM.
To be a part of the session, fill out the Google Form below and spread the word!
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The number of people on here acting like experts on public finance is disconcerting.
Issues of tax policy are some of the hardest to think about, and it really is okay to not have a hot take.
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ownership of some assets for 2022-23, calculated using HCES microdata
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Paper with
@sashi31363
,
@soyra_gune
and
@kayveeyum
on shadow banking in India is out in the Review of Econ and Business Studies. Thanks
@sashi31363
for an opportunity to research on the topic
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Please give him tenure directly.
Happy to officially announce that I am joining the Department of Communication at UC Santa Barbara
@CommUcsb
as an Assistant Professor, starting January 2024. आइ वडिलांच्या आशीर्वाद आहेत भारी.
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On the eve of 22nd January, a film that everyone should watch.
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The South Asian adaptation of CORE's flagship introductory textbook is out! It has been a pleasure working with
@arjun_jayadev
on this.
Read on to find out what the book has to offer!
[1/6] We're pleased 'The Economy: A South Asian Perspective' is now live on the CORE website! It adopts 'The Economy'’s analytical framework & applies it to the South Asian context. We're grateful to the team led by
@arjun_jayadev
(
@azimpremjiuniv
). Read ➡️
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Hi all
Following up on my earlier article, I analyze India's subnational debt in the context of its federal structure and argue why a debt "target" is a bad idea. Also, some short takes on the GST Compensation issue!
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Pleasantly surprised to see my paper on debt dynamics cited and replicated in an article in HT by
@taditkundu
and A Prasanna!
: "A recent paper by economist Advait Moharir (2020) undertakes a debt decomposition exercise to isolate the impact of primary deficits from those of growth, inflation and interest rates. " .
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I have been using this excellent resource by Ram Seraph. He basically scrapes the LGD website everyday, containing mapping from village to pincode to state level, and uploads the data dump in clean csvs on this site:
Also, amazing motivation (see photo
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Everyone: when in Italy, try and assimilate, do best of both worlds etc. etc.
Me: *makes kanda poha in olive oil*
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Microeconomics textbooks should stop leaving proofs as "tasks for readers"- nahi aata mujhe.
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We are half-assing our structural transformation, increasing the risk of staying stuck in the middle income trap, as
@EmergingRoy
has pointed out.
The latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report 2023-24 provides a number of interesting insights.
PLFS data suggests that agriculture employs a whopping 46.1 per cent of India's workforce (rural and urban combined) in 'usual status'. 🧵1/n
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Thus, while a rise in per capita income has a positive effect on welfare indicators, the same is NOT TRUE for rising inequality. The claim that both have converging effects on socio-economic welfare is simply not true...(END)
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AB de Villiers teaches omitted variable bias. What a day.
Listening to John McEnroe commentating in the Djoko/Hurkacz game. Love how he questions stats! Saying “who are these people?? Who are “they” we’re talking about here?” I have a very similar view! How are these people telling us how valuable a player is? Or what the win percentage
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The one thing uniting academia and Indian classical music is 40-year olds being called "young, upcoming, and dynamic..."
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On a slighly unrelated notes, they have also released a bunch of useful environmental stats at the state level: natural disasters, emissions, temperature etc.
has anyone else noticed that MoSPI has released not one, but THREE survey datasets back to back, within days of the election, one of them being a super imp. unorganized enterprises survey
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Because, Kerala is more unequal than its counterparts(), and it also performs much better on welfare indicators than other states
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Was brainstorming a possible IV with a colleague, and there was one glorious moment we both scrunched our faces and said:
" Haan, kaafi exogenous lag raha hai (Yes, it feels quite exogenous)"
Friends, this is how you do causal inference xD
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We used to call Naveen "MVP" at Uni, for evident reasons!
Congratulations and good luck!
It's a rare honour to be able to see off somebody going to represent India in an international sports event. Naveen in the photo is on his way to Philippines to play for India in ultimate frisbee.
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Am I the only one able to understand an applied machine learning paper fairly clearly but struggle to solve a simple triangle problem for GRE😶😶
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Here is what they do. The Gini Index (measure of inequality), is plotted against various indicators like education, health, life expectancy and so on, for 20 Indian states. The survey finds a POSITIVE CORRELATION between inequality and these indicators!
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Shoutout to the
@azimpremjiuniv
econ programme for giving many curious students like me the opportunity to carry out research at such an early stage!
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Super important work. Positive effects on intensive margin (i.e. already employed women work more), but null effect on extensive margin (low skilled married women do not enter workforce)!
Several Indian states have introduced free bus rides for women.
It has attracted much media attention.
But did this reduction in commuting costs raise FLFP?
No.
New paper by Chen et al
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Leaving India was mistake.
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This paper is huge. Have merely skimmed through it, but it seems to be very carefully done and seems to be a huge challenge to Studwell and Amsden on East Asia!
Definitely goes on my to read list on ec history and dev
🚨New WP Alert🚨
@JenKuanWang
and I analyze Taiwan's 1950s land reform, long seen as central to its economic takeoff—and to the East Asian Miracle.
By digitizing archival data, we bring new causal evidence to the table. What we find is surprising!
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Maybe the wrong takeaway, but look at that handwriting 😯
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I have a brand new, albeit slightly damaged extra copy of Linear Algebra Done Right by Axler, which I would like to give away.
Anyone interested can DM me! I will bear the shipping charges (only in India). Students from underrepresented backgrounds will be given first preference
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or maybe just prevent deaths because like its not nice to die
A World Bank report suggests if we succeed in preventing deaths in road accidents, we can save around Rs 90 lakh per person
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Apparently local trains have groups of people who play cards together
Was just requested to shift seats to facilitate the same, and bribed with a piece of rajgira chikki
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It is safe to say I have learnt more science through GRE Reading comp passages than in school
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The next time someone argues that all outcomes are determined by "ability" and environment doesn't matter, show them the footage of today's WC final.
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People are dunking on this for it's apparently low R-squared (0.2).
The R-squared isn't the problem. Making causal claims with a scatter plot driven by outliers is.
What happens when inequality rises? It turns out that murders go up.
Hmm .. maybe inequality really is structural violence.
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This is a great idea! With a few helping hands I am sure we can get this going
@pavas222
I wish there were econ reading groups (2 papers per week), if it doesn’t exist already. If I was in your position, I’d love that. Actually I’d still love that.
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After writing an exhausting 3 hour exam, my mother waltzed into the room, stared at the sheets and said- "You didn't put the date in the margin- what's the point"
If this isn't peak Indian parenting I don't know what is xD
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I made each graph twice. First, with Kerala and then without Kerala? Why- because it seems that Kerala is an outlier and is driving a lot of of this correlation. Why Kerala though?....(4/N)
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I decided to replicate these graphs, but with three changes. ONE, I included the correlation coefficient or R to quantify the strength of the relationship. TWO, I included all the states. and THREE... (3/N)
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Yeah sure everyone is leaving Twitter. Because everyone left WhatsApp to go to Signal right?
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Superb graph
Notice also how similar are income distributions and global income positions of China and Brazil--except at the top where Brazilians in the top national quintile are richer than the equivalent Chinese.
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No Balaji, some tech workers moving up the service value chain doesn't mean we have arrived.
Also, save for a couple of cities, public infra is poor and crime rates are low because they are severely underreported.
I understand cautious optimism. Delusion, not so much.
THE BASICS WORK IN INDIA
Rohit is right about India.
1) First, the basic daily loop of a tech worker is now easy in India. Wake up, hit the gym, open laptop, get coffee, call an Uber, hang out with some friends, etc — that’s all there. Reliable power, internet, air
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Here is what I found
HEALTH
The correlation is already low between inequality and health (0.26), but after dropping Kerala it drops further to 0.1.. (6/N)
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@NandyAsmita
Agree fully that pseudoscientific medicine shouldn't be glorified. But i think (a) the award is more about public service (which it is, given the constraints) and (b) the issue is not as straightforward as lack of scientific temper
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Everyone hyping up the Mahua Moitra speech should not forget her party's very violent history in WB and the general brand of politics pursued by the Trinamool Congress
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EDUCATION
Here the drop is even more- from 0.2 to 0.04. Effectively, there is ZERO correlation between education and inequality, after dropping Kerala
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Sharing these absolute A1 memes from 2018 made by
@dontcarelobo
and
@soyra_gune
!
Yes, my face is extremely memeable :)
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Today's adventure- Made ghee from unsalted butter and promptly poured the hot liquid inside a glass bottle without letting it cool leading to instant cracking.
Lesson- Don't forget basic science just because you are studying social science xD
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