Karan Bhasin
@karanbhasin95
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Currently on leave. Pursuing PhD in Econometrics & Quantitative Economics. Researcher; Rationalist; Liberal; Economics. RTs not endorsements. Views Personal.
New York, USA
Joined April 2010
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Last week NSS released the micro-data for HCES 2022-23. These data allow a closer examination of poverty in India over the last decade.
@surjitbhalla
sir and I examine poverty levels across different states and by rural and urban areas.
1/n
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Just heard that NGT issued a last minute order prohibiting the celebration of Dussehra with the burning of effigies of Ravana as has been the tradition for centuries.
This is unacceptable and the act of issuance of such an order so close to actual celebration is sinister.
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India Wheat MSP: ₹23 per KG
International Wheat Prices: ₹18 per KG
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India's government just introduced a series of legislation that reforms CRPC and gets rid of the sedition law among other things.
Police reforms - delivered!
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The wire recently published an Op-Ed saying rising female labor force participation rate is a sign of economic distress! Till a few months back, India’s low FLPR was a cause of concern. Now that it has improved, it’s a sign of distress?
Does anyone takes them seriously?
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India has 24 crore households. If 1 lakh to one women per household then the cost comes to Rs 24,00,000 crores.
If it is to every women then India has 65 crore women and this comes to Rs 65,00,000 crores.
For context, Indian Government’s budget for 2023-24 is 45,03,097 crores.
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NDTV living up to its reputation and the bias is always in the headlines. The complete statement by FM-
"If any one currency which has held its own and did not get into fluctuation or volatility as much as other currencies it is the Indian rupee. We have held back very well,"
Rupee Has Held Back Very Well Against the Dollar, Says Nirmala Sitharaman
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I think you are confusing UIDAI (Aadhar) with UPI - both are very different.
UPI was launched in April of 2016.
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The discussion on the devolution of funds to states in India is shallow. A thread on this issue.
The 14th Finance Commission's recommendation was accepted by GoI, to give states more funds!
GoI even agreed to guarantee 14% revenue growth to states for five years under GST. 1/n
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Even if the electoral bonds scheme is deemed unconstitutional, when these donations were made, the contract was such that the donor remains anonymous.
Asking SBI to reveal the names violates this contract.
Tragic, that the Supreme Court would encourage such a violation of
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Sharing a story from 2007!
India was a likely contender for Intel's new semiconductor plant but the Indian government was slow, and policy decisions took too long.
Outcome?
Intel invested $2.5 billion in China and $1 billion in Vietnam.
.
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Since
@INCIndia
is big on redistribution for 2024;
Do they
A) Propose a bill to tax agricultural income above 5 lakhs?
B) Propose an inheritance tax on transfer of agricultural land?
C) Support lower revenues for southern states and redistribution towards the heartland states?
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@dhume
@suchi_a
@rahulkanwal
Another interesting point is that based on the latest HCES data, inequality in India declined between 2011 and 2022-23.
We wrote about it a while back and there was also a recent NBER paper that used CMIE data to show how inequality in India has been declining in recent years.
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BB's Claim: MDP Poverty decline faster from 2015-16 to 2019-21
Dreze's Response (See the last row, last two columns): Poverty declined (annual rate) by 11% between 2015-16 and 2019-21 relative to 6.7% from 2005-6 to 2015-16.
Isn't 11% greater than 6.7%?
@vinamrsachdeva
@lucas_chancel
@IndianExpress
@PikettyWIL
@Nitin_K_Bharti
No, this statement was about their error-ridden and misleading claims on multi-dimensional poverty.
Their estimates of extreme poverty are a separate can of worms.
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What is the exact observed relationship between changes in MSP and India's inflation rate?
A 10% increase in MSP today leads to a 1.8% increase in CPI Inflation tomorrow.
This should not come as a surprise given the relatively high weight of food in India's CPI.
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For whatever it is worth, there is no denying that PM Modi’s economic team lead by the Finance Minister has managed the worst economic crisis and ensured India’s economic recovery is swift and sustainable.
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It’s dishonest to compare levels of living standards in 2024 & wake up to regional differences.
The question is whether these differences have narrowed in last few years? Jointly with
@surjitbhalla
sir; we try to answer it. UP comes out as best performer.
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Way to destroy a truly global city.
Hyderabad and Pune would be glad, though.
Bengaluru's Civic body finally steps in.. BBMP issues Feb 28th deadline for all commercial establishments to comply with the 60-40 rule on Signboards!
BBMP Commissioner Tushar Girinath:
"By 28th Feb, establishments that don't use 60% Kannada language on their signboards will
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A new paper by Mrinalini Jha & Rahul Lahoti essentially provides confirmation of our results (
@surjitbhalla
sir &
@dravirmani
sir) in our April
@IMFNews
paper on extreme poverty (1.9$ PPP) in India was less than 1% in 2019.
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Fun fact: PM Modi has built and inaugurated more AIIMS & IITs than many of his predecessors.
In fact, his priorities towards both the health and education sector go long back to his tenure as Chief Minister of Gujarat.
A proven track record of delivery that speaks for itself.
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India thought so. And then India saw 2010-13.
There are no dearth of bad ideas and this is why there is no room for complacency.
Neither can those in power - nor the electorate take growth for granted.
Far too many countries have lost momentum for Indians to know better!
I think India is resilient enough that any political party cannot really dent its growth... yes for some time some slowdown can happen at times, but by and large, businesses have done alright in any regime.
All we need is good monsoon, and no coercive governance. Rest the
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Tell me you don’t understand economics and national accounts without telling me you don’t understand economics and national accounts 🤦♂️
On the one hand we see 8.4% GDP
On the other hand we see record unemployment-- and highest ever wealth inequality in India.
So what's REALLY happening?
In simple words, the way we measure GDP is deeply flawed.
[And, I am quite surprised that no one actually educates people
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Here’s how India reduced its import dependence and cut its purchase in half:
A) Transition to Nano Urea and Nano DAP
B) Old Urea Manufacturing Gas plants were restarted to augment domestic production capacity
India has shocked the global
#urea
world by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724KMT to a now 340KMT. World is left scrambling and shows why it is so important to wait for the final results before building a market POV.
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Some states spend on infrastructure. While some others spend on revadis…
Maharashtra government to spend Rs 6 lakh crore on state's infrastructure!
@Dev_Fadnavis
@Devendra_Office
@BJP4Maharashtra
via
@economictimes
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Go to the MOSPI website; there is something known as the Periodic Labor Force Survey.
Download the unit level data and you can compare the change in employment status.
I shudder to think how Indian economy was managed when I have to explain this to a former Finance Minister 🤦♂️
What does it say about the health of the economy when 2,60,000 persons are laid off in 2023 in one sector alone -- the tech companies?
Has the government any data on the number of employees laid off or retrenched or terminated for any reason?
This number must be considered
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This is an important point that unfortunately not many in India understand.
You cannot take growth for granted.
Sadly, many Indian states do and are adopting disastrous fiscal policies such as the Old Pension Scheme.
In 2000, Japan's economy was the second-largest in the world, at $4.96 trillion, which is larger than it is today.
Pretty amazing that (in dollar terms) Japan's economy hasn't grown over the past 23 years.
via
@NikkeiAsia
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India’s farm laws had the potential to add another 100 million households to its middle class by 2027.
Too bad they had to be repealed.
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Agricultural income is tax exempt. Half your workforce is therefore outside of the tax net.
India’s threshold for taxes is much higher relative to the per capita income - especially when compared with other AEs & EMDEs.
India under-taxes at the bottom, over-taxes at the top.
This is crazy stats. If 0.3% contributes to 80% of taxes, something is really really wrong.
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A key part of the demands of farmers was to remove a law that criminalised stubble burning.
Who supported those farmers in expectations of making gains at the expense of health of the people of Delhi? 🤔
Who encouraged them by allowing them to hold a city to ransom? 🤔
#Live
: AQI Over 500, Air Quality Deteriorates to 'Very Severe' in Delhi-NCR; And Other Top Stories
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Latest official data confirms that India has eliminated extreme poverty.
At the 1.9$ PPP, only 2% people below poverty line.
At the 3.2$ PPP, only 20.8% people below poverty line.
Joint with
@surjitbhalla
sir. Do give it a read!
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There seems to be a lot of misinformation around debt by Adani Group companies. Many seem to suggest that a lot of this debt is from Public Sector Banks but this is not true.
Borrowing from PSBs made up for 21% of all debt. The bulk of their new borrowings seems to be from bonds.
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This will levy huge costs on the people of Punjab and will ultimately come at the expense of their economic growth & development.
Sad indeed.
My government is considering reverting to the Old Pension System (OPS). I have asked my Chief Secretary to study the feasibility and modalities of it’s implementation. We stand committed to the welfare of our employees.
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Sandeep here represents the perverse mindset responsible behind India’s lagging infrastructure.
Freebies chahiye sabh ko.
Good infrastructure costs money - to build and maintain. You got to pay to use it - or be happy with the substandard one!
Can’t have it both ways!
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Is this real? Damn.
If there is no official data, then why don’t they commission an official report to get the necessary data?
Its been 10 years and they are telling us that they still haven’t figured out how to deal with the problem because there is no official data?🤦♂️
#WATCH
| Delhi: Services Minister Atishi says, "There is no official data available which can tell which source leads to what amount of pollution. The problem is that no policy can be drafted to reduce this pollution when the government doesn't know the amount of contribution of
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If productivity was constant, you could linearly increase output by increasing hours worked. But that’s now how the world works.
Sadly, too many smart folks seem to think working 70 hours (without saying anything on pay) will magically double the output 🤦♂️ Fatigue is a real
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The Rupee-USD exchange rate is governed by several factors at the moment. Predominant of them is the US rate hike cycle. Short term interest rates in US are expected to end at 4.5 by the end of this year. Mortgage and long term rates are also inching higher.
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Decline in Poverty between 2004-2019:
MPI: 415 Million
Tendulkar Poverty Line ~ 1.9$PPP: 338 Million
3.2$PPP: 560 Million
3.2$PPP after adjustments for in-kind transfers: 606.1 million people.
2/n
All data available on
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The UN Report based on multidimensional poverty measures shows 415 million people were uplifted out of poverty between 2004-2019.
Naturally, I was curious to compare their estimates with those in the Bhalla, Bhasin & Virmani (2022) paper.
Some very interesting results! 1/n
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Santosh Mehrotra in today's Financial Express makes a factually inaccurate claim about India's lockdown. He claims that the lockdown was announced at four hours' notice for nearly 1.4 billion people ignoring 23 different Indian states with mobility restrictions prior to lockdown.
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This post reflects the sad reality of Indian finfluencers who are clueless in dodo-land!
When an Indian business borrows (let’s assume from Government Banks) and it goes bankrupt.
Anil Ambani is a bankrupt Indian Billionaire, who is NOT living the life of a poor person.
Robert Kiyosaki has amassed $1.2Bn in debt. And, is still a Billionaire.
The list goes on...
In fact, if I name a few folks, I will personally be sued. One is running a massive PR
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A person who claims to be a finance influencer thinks Yes Bank bailout was via taxes 🤦♂️
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry!
The entire cost was borne either by AT1 bond holders or by equity investors.
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Let’s talk about rural wealth.
What is the biggest source of wealth in rural India?
Land.
What makes land prices overpriced (&
impossible for landless farmers to own)?
Restrictions on land use that jack up prices.
Who opposed land reforms & add to rural inequality?
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All of this affects global capital flows towards dollar denominated assets that leads to a strengthening of the US dollar. Against this strengthening, the rupee has so far performed well. This is visible when we look at rupee against a broader basket of currencies.
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Honestly feel that electing
@ShashiTharoor
as president of
@INCIndia
is perhaps the best thing that can happen to Congress.
He usually refrains from criticising just for the sake of criticising and offers a much more balanced perspective than many of his peers.
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I see many people make this point about the extension of free food grains for five more years to 80 crore people as a sign of distress. This is not true at all.
The reason why India's food subsidy continues to cover 80 crore people is the way we have identified eligibility. 1/n
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By now I’m convinced that people in charge of Delhi & Punjab are not serious about addressing rapid rise in pollution due to stubble burning.
What I’m not able to understand is that why isn’t India’s higher judiciary directing the executive to find a tangible solution?
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With this, I hope there is an acceptance that India has done well in terms of reducing poverty over the last two decades and that it eliminated extreme poverty in 2019.
It is now time that India moves to a higher poverty line of 3.2$ PPP.
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Unfortunately, many have forgotten the dark days between 2009-14 when no reforms were undertaken thanks to NAC. To make matters worse, India sacrificed its medium-term macroeconomic fundamentals making it one of the five fragile economies.
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Even if the scheme is deemed to be unconstitutional by the court, makes sense to deanonymize future donations while maintaining the sanctity of existing contracts and allowing them to remain anonymous.
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Met a Taxi driver earlier today.
He told me everyone in his village gets 24/7 electricity. His house was built under PM Awas & has piped water connection, LPG connections & a toilet.
His 2 daughters get regular scholarships through DBT - the elder one wants to become a doctor.
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While we focus a lot on how much taxes go to states from federal funds, we need to also look at how states are spending them!
Should the additional funds be spent on free electricity and other free-stuff? Or should it be instead used for improving policing, transportation etc?
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The statement is factually true and valid but the person managing NDTV'sa count news that most people will just read the headlines. Click-bait is the alter where journalism dies.
But then again, with S Jain and Nidhi, I don't even think they do journalism.
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Spoke to a domestic help who gets 1000Rs (close to 12$) per month directly into her bank account. In addition, her family lives in a house which was constructed under the PM-Aawas Yojana. She hails from Jharkhand and talks about how her life has changed in the last few years.
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Do we also need a tax on the inheritance of political legacy?
The decline of Congress under Rahul certainly suggests the presence of such a tax:D
#WATCH
| Chicago, US: Chairman of Indian Overseas Congress, Sam Pitroda says, "...In America, there is an inheritance tax. If one has $100 million worth of wealth and when he dies he can only transfer probably 45% to his children, 55% is grabbed by the government. That's an
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The upcoming budget comes with the backdrop of a healthy growing economy; this provides interesting opportunities for fiscal consolidation and important rewards.
Sharing an article on this. Do give this a read
@moneycontrolcom
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Interesting to see that Delhi’s Chief Minister had asked for one year to solve this problem. Clearly he failed.
But did he even try?
Can Delhi or Punjab’s Government list even 5 steps they took to address the problem of stubble burning?
Here’s
@ArvindKejriwal
claiming he’ll solve the problem in 1 year exactly 1 year ago. His ministers “solution” is that there is no problem in Punjab and that it originates in Haryana despite overwhelming satellite evidence to the contrary.
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Three strong conclusions:
1) India has eliminated extreme poverty; substantial decline in poverty even at the higher poverty line of 3.2$PPP
2) Over the last decade, consumption inequality appears to have declined
3) There is a need to now transition to a higher poverty line
2/n
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First they said how can extreme poverty in India be at less than 1%.
Now that others have confirmed the finding, they want to use sales of 2 wheelers, biscuits etc 🤦♂️
I mean come on guys, can we stop shifting the goalposts and for once accept that something good has happened?
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Vivek Kaul recently wrote an article saying write offs are the same as waivers given the low recovery rate.
This is absolutely incorrect. Money recovered after a write off still leaves residual value of the loan. This residual value is recovered by ARCs or whoever purchased the
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Once the bond yields adequately reflect the differences in state finances, you will see bond markets punish states that follow bad public finance policies. That will help bring in the necessary discipline needed.
Till then, state governments will keep giving free stuff!
7/n
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The sad part is that this confirms how the Odd-Even scheme was whimsical policy and not one informed by evidence or based on solid thinking.
Wondering how many more such policies.
#WATCH
| Delhi: Services Minister Atishi says, "There is no official data available which can tell which source leads to what amount of pollution. The problem is that no policy can be drafted to reduce this pollution when the government doesn't know the amount of contribution of
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Not all growth is equal - and so comparisons of simple growth rates over time can be problematic. Joint with
@surjitbhalla
sir where we look at comparative economic performance. Bottom line - Growth performance in 2014-19 better than that in 2004-13.
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Two quick points:
A) Non-anonymous donations from large donors won’t work in India largely because of possibility of political witch-hunting. I may donate to party X, party Y wins and they will go after me. Our justice system is not strong or speedy enough to prevent this.
On the eve of the hearing of the Electoral Bonds case, the BJP has made its intentions clear
The BJP will raise its funds from big corporates in an opaque, secretive and conspiratorial manner
The answer to this is transparent crowd-funding from small donors through recordable
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This has been in the works for a while (jointly with Tirthatanmoy Das and
@surjitbhalla
sir)!
More substantial discussion on the employment question in Surjit Sir's recent book - How We Vote
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Sharing an article with Vivek Singh on India’s economic growth. The most surprising part is that between 2004-09, only 1.3 million jobs were created.
“Among Fragile Five economies, India has registered the highest per-capita GDP growth in last 9 years.”
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There is also added uncertainty regarding the terminal rates at the end of the rate hike cycle.
Rupee eventually would be back to a more reasonable value as suggested by the fundamentals of the economy.
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Basically, long story short: states were given a pretty good deal since 2014 in terms of devolution of funds to support their balance-sheets. However, many state balance sheets have only deteriorated. The problem is not a lack of funds, but bad policy choices in many states.
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Very valid point; equally important to rank India in terms of per capita GDP (LCU) since independence:
1960: 54/92
1970: 68/116
1980: 89/141
1990: 97/173
2000: 99/196
2010: 87/206
2021: 82/203
This shows how India has improved its ranks in per-capita income over the last two
India's Rank today in terms of GDP is 5. That makes us proud
India's Rank in terms of per capita income is 128. That must make us humble and determined to grow at a faster rate
One day, India will become the 3rd largest economy in the world. But our goal must be to increase
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This happens because most states can borrow funds at an interest rate that is very similar. So a prudent state also pays an interest rate similar to what a debt-ridden state would. This is a big problem.
6/n
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It was good that GoI did not accept the advice to spend like there was no tomorrow. Prudence and risk aversion of Indian policymakers are beneficial during times of heightened uncertainty.
So far the RBI under an unassuming Governor has been rock solid in the face of a taper storm without having to resort to desperado "cut price" swaps. Hopefully things will get better hereon.
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There are clear policy preferences that have emerged recently. But more worrying is that states with a higher debt burden continue to focus more on the former type of free stuff. The opportunity cost of money is a lot in a high growth emerging market economy with modest infra.
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The point here is no matter what definition or measure of poverty is used, you see a substantial decline in the poverty rate in India during this period. Hope this helps put things in context.
cc:
@surjitbhalla
@dravirmani
@ARanganathan72
@swarajk_
@akshayalladi
@SandeepParekh
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In a few years, Swaminathan Aiyar will write another op-ed conceding how wrong he was about the PLI.
But many today will read his column and think he has a valid point. It is tragic to see precious real estate in newspapers being wasted.
The govt’s 50% subsidy for Vedanta’s silicon fabrication plant in Gujarat will amount to Rs 80,000 cr. This is more than the entire central allocation of Rs 73,000 cr for MGNREGA. Isn’t this a “freebie” in an election-bound state, when it will create very few jobs?
@EconomicTimes
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The data in support of this tweet is as good as “trust me, bro”
Don’t even get me started on the casual attempt at causal inferences in Rajdeep’s tweet!
Statistical thuggery seems to be the norm given that we are in an election year!
Reality check in Coimbatore: around 30% of micro enterprises have closed in last 7 years post GST, demo and lockdown according to one MSME rep estimate (no official data available in a town with more then 30,000 units ) Larger companies claim to have benefitted.. but majority of
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A big analytical difference between rupee’s fall in 2013 and the situation today is that back in 2013 India was one of the fragile five economies.
Today, across currencies we see that the dollar has strengthened so India is not alone.
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That’s a brilliant decision because there is no such thing as indoor air pollution 🤦♂️
It’s sad that despite this public health emergency that occurs every year, there is no seriousness to address this issue.
In light of the rising pollution levels, all govt and private primary schools in Delhi will remain closed for the next 2 days
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I don’t know what numbers India’s former finance minister is looking at but India’s unemployment rate is at the lowest since the start of PLFS.
Sure, we can debate whether this low number is due to self employment etc. But first let’s accept the low unemployment rate as a fact.
During the short-duration discussion on 'Economic situation in the country' in Rajya Sabha, Congress MP & former Union finance minister P Chidambaram says, "If India is growing at the fastest rate in the world, then why is the impact of the growth not felt on the ground? We are a
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At this point, I think Andy does this because he wishes to monetize his twitter account.
Generate enough outrage by outlandish takes and monetize impressions? 🤔
India's south is rejecting Modi, and that will have profound implications, writes
@andymukherjee70
, as the more successful part of the country drifts away from the poverty-ridden north via
@opinion
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63% of India in 2015 was urban (census 2011 puts this at 31%).
India is no longer a predominantly rural country - and many erstwhile rural areas are incorrectly classified as rural!
The next census will fix this and show a substantially higher urbanisation percentage.
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If there was no corruption, why was the policy reversed?
Those who paid bribes have confessed that kickbacks were involved.
Do people still fall for such lies?
#WATCH
| On ED summons in liquor police case, Delhi CM & AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal says, "The truth is that there was no corruption. BJP wants to arrest me. My biggest asset is my honesty & they want to dent it. My lawyers have told me that summons sent to me are illegal. BJP's
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Important points that have been made repeatedly since many years, particularly on the MSPs and their distortionary effects.
Hope people watch this to get a comprehensive understanding of why they don’t work (& will never work)
#FarmersProtest2024
| Dr
@agulati115
, Professor of Agriculture-ICRIER, explains how MSP law can be anti-farmer and create fiscal chaos plus. Listen in.
#NewsToday
|
@SardesaiRajdeep
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Some important facts that would be of interest to many on this subject.
When a beneficiary does not have a mobile number, 9999999999 is used by the data entry operator.
This is why 7.5 lakh beneficiaries were registered with the same mobile number.
1/2
While political leaders hold court in parliament on a no confidence motion, here is a story that should really concern our MPs and common citizens alike: CAG report reveals that under Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Aarogya Yojna nearly 7.5 lakh beneficiaries were registered
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This statement "no official data" even after 8 years of being in the Delhi Government shows that the health of the people of Delhi does not matter to this government.
It shows how ideas such as Odd-Even were imposed on the city without any data or feasibility study.
#WATCH
| Delhi: Services Minister Atishi says, "There is no official data available which can tell which source leads to what amount of pollution. The problem is that no policy can be drafted to reduce this pollution when the government doesn't know the amount of contribution of
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@ajitdatta
True that. But then again, shouldn’t things change with a new non-Gandhi president?
We all saw the UPA era and it would be tragic to see a repeat of it with a puppet as the president - or worse - with the same old style of functioning.
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15% increment annually?!
That’s very strange as the state cannot maintain such a high nominal growth rate with inflation moderating.
Why would anyone want to put something like this as a part of the law itself rather than index it to inflation?
न्यूनतम आय की गारंटी के अधिकार वाला पहला व अकेला राज्य बन रहा राजस्थान-
#JanSammanJaiRajasthan
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2024 and 2019 elections have illustrated beyond all reasonable doubt that India’s democracy has matured to the point where performance is rewarded extensively by India’s electorate!
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