Logan
@LoganZT1
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@BrownUniversity '26.
Massachusetts, USA
Joined August 2015
For the fourth election in a row, I have mapped every US House of Representatives election at the county level. These results follow the presidential results very closely, and most differences are seen in uncontested races.
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JASON PALMER 2024!!!
According to results provided by the Democratic Party in American Samoa, Jason Palmer has won the American Samoa Democratic Caucus. Follow results here:
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Massachusetts often votes on ballot questions to decide certain policies. I took 6 questions from the past decade and created a social and economic ideology score for each town, similar to the political compass. Here is a map of the results, adjusting for the statewide lean:
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A lot has changed in 160 years! Vermont was Lincoln's strongest state in the 1860 Election and Biden's strongest in 2020. This results in a massive 92% swing towards the Democrats. Vermont publishes town by town results going back to 1848 so I was able to map both elections.
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For the third election in a row, I've mapped every House of Representatives election by county. These results are all unofficial and were gathered over several days, meaning the final map will look slightly different.
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Seattle protesters have established the "Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone", centered around the abandoned East Police Precinct. The zone contains parts of 3 voting precincts. I calculated and mapped the results from 2016. Hillary Clinton won in a landslide and Jill Stein took 2nd.
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Using New York Times data, here is a rough map I made of the 2018 midterm house elections by county.
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Utah Redistricting Commission is currently trying to edit a locked district in DRA. This is going to be a long day.
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Foreign policy almost never appears on the ballot, but, in 1970, Massachusetts voted on a non-binding measure for what should be done in Vietnam. Most towns voted to withdraw in a planned schedule, but progressive bastions like Amherst and Cambridge voted to withdraw immediately.
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Combining CD results of JBE and Doug Jones' wins in @JMilesColeman's Louisiana/Alabama Maps and Jim Hood's election in @SenhorRaposa's Mississippi Map, you get this. Despite these combining for a 10,000 vote win by the Democrats, Republicans won 14/17 CDs.
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In 1976, former Alabama Governor and infamous segregationist George Wallace won Boston in the Democratic Primary. This was mainly due to Boston's strong opposition to busing as well as vote-splitting among other candidates. Second-place Henry Jackson was also opposed to busing.
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My support of Vermin Supreme is growing less and less ironic everyday.
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In 1976, the campaign of infamous segregationist George Wallace received a severe blow in the Illinois Primary, especially in Cook County. Future President Jimmy Carter won Cook by almost 20 percent thanks to a coalition of African Americans in Chicago and wealthier suburbs.
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While most of the election focus has been for President, I decided to take a look at the House results. This is a map of the results by county. Uncontested seats skewed the map a bit, but the real story is how few counties split their tickets with the Presidential vote.
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Maine often votes on ballot measures to decide certain policies. I took 6 measures from the past decade and created a social and economic ideology score for each town, similar to the political compass. Here is a map of the results, adjusting for the statewide lean:
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In the 1980s, states across the country held referendums on closing #NuclearPower plants. This includes Massachusetts, where progressive towns and some areas near nuclear plants led the charge. However, most of the state opposed the measure, and it was overwhelmingly defeated.
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Map of Libertarian Party Primary in Massachusetts (No preference and write-ins excluded). @VerminSupreme: 19.2% (Pink).@JacobforLiberty: 17.8% (Gold).@DanForTexas: 14.2% (Orange).@RuffPhillips: 10.8%.@arvinvohra: 7.3%.@reboot2020ken: 7.0%.@Jo4liberty: 6.8% . Gray = tie
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Massachusetts voted on 3 ballot questions last November. The second was a proposal to create a citizen commission to push a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. It had bipartisan support and passed by over 40 points.
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I created this as part of my English class final but I figured I should repost it here. This shows county loyalty between the 1988 and 2020 Presidential Elections. Despite the popular vote flipping from Bush +8% to Biden +5%, more counties flipped Republican than Democratic.
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In 1912, New Mexico voted in a presidential election for the first time. Like most of the country, vote splitting between Taft and Roosevelt allowed Wilson to win with a plurality. Unlike the country, however, Taft ran far ahead of Roosevelt mainly thanks to Hispanic voters.
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Last year, Illinois Senator Dick Durbin easily won re-election. One interesting candidate was Willie Wilson, who ran under the Willie Wilson Party. His strength in Chicago, particularly among African Americans, gave him 30% in some precincts and held Durbin to 75% in the city.
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My final map of 2020! This is what the county map would look like if the margin in each state was reversed. I applied a universal swing in each state to find who would win each county. Most safe states had huge swings while the swing states stayed pretty much the same.
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Using the results from Hingham I mapped last week, I estimated the early and election day vote in every precinct in the state. Biden won the early vote in every single precinct and early voting was the majority of votes in all but one.
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In 1938, the Socialist Party had an impressive performance in Connecticut thanks to Bridgeport Mayor Jasper McLevy running for Governor. His 26% of the vote was enough to carry many towns as Incumbent Governor Wilbur Cross narrowly lost re-election to Republican Raymond Baldwin.
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While Charlie Baker is yet to announce his plans for 2022, former Republican Senate nominee Geoff Diehl is running for Governor. Since they would likely be facing off in a Republican primary, I created this map of how they performed in their respective primaries in 2018.
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In the early 1900s, New England was strongly Republican. However, vote splitting between Taft and Roosevelt allowed Wilson to flip all but Vermont in 1912. Overall, Wilson carried New England combined by about 4%. This is a town by town map of the election.
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New England has a reputation of being very Democratic but electing Republican Governors. I think one reason is because of the large number of Independents. This is a map of voter registration by town in New England (excluding Vermont, which doesn't have partisan registration).
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In 1860, Abraham Lincoln won Connecticut with 54% of the vote, over 30% ahead of Douglas and Breckinridge who split the Democratic vote. Lincoln won big in the rural towns as well as 11 of the 12 largest towns, only losing Greenwich to Douglas.
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In the 1860 election, Abraham Lincoln easily carried Rhode Island, winning all but 3 towns. The other candidates united into a fusion ticket on the ballot to avoid vote splitting and did best in the Providence suburbs and the South Shore.
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Interesting datapoint from The New York Times Alaska poll: Trump leads with non-white voters. Trump - 40%.Biden - 39%.Jorgensen - 12%.
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With the Boston Mayoral Election coming up, I took a look at the fundraising data by zip code. Just like the polling, Michelle Wu has a strong lead while the other candidates are battling it out for second. Individual candidate maps in thread. #mapoli #bospoli #BostonMayor
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Charlie Baker was re-elected in 2018, winning by 34%. This is the largest victory margin for Governor since Bill Weld's 43% win in 1994. Baker won every county and dominated in all areas except for city centers, college campuses, minority precincts, and Western Massachusetts.
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Last night, Democrats flipped the Plymouth and Barnstable State Senate district in Massachusetts. While this election was expected to be close, high turnout in deep blue Falmouth (furthest south town on the map), where Susan Moran is an elected official, gave her a solid win.
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In the 1860 election, Southern Democrat John Breckinridge narrowly won Maryland, running close with Constitutional Unionist John Bell throughout the state. Lincoln and Douglas only received single-digit support but did find some success in Allegany County.
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@SenhorRaposa Waiting for the people who say primary challenges are bad and we need to support incumbents to comment on this one.
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Senate vs Governor Elections
He's the moderate Republican Governor in Massachusetts and he's the most popular Governor in America. Beating Scott Brown was not a sure thing, but Elizabeth Warren got it done.
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Boston is one of the few cities in MA where there are more registered Democrats than Unenrolled (Independents). The divide largely follows racial lines, with neighborhoods like Mattapan and Roxbury (~90% POC) having the most Democrats and vice versa in South Boston (~80% white).
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In 2005, the Massachusetts State House passed H. 4479, also known as Romneycare. This extended health insurance to 98% of the state and would go on to inspire Obamacare. The vote was almost exactly party-line; just 2 Democrats joined every Republican in voting against.
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Norfolk County, Massachusetts held their Sheriff election last month. Democrats flipped this office as Patrick McDermott beat Incumbent Jerry McDermott. It was closer than the Presidential result, where Biden won every precinct. The two are not related despite their last names.
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Bitcoin billionaire Brock Pierce ran for president in 2020 as an Independent. He was endorsed by Jesse Ventura but ultimately failed to gain any traction. His money was enough to get him ballot access in 15 states and his best county was Laramie, Wyoming where he got 1.1%.
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Happy birthday @JMilesColeman! Since your youtube tutorial taught me how to make precinct loyalty maps, I thought I would make one today to celebrate. This is a precinct loyalty map of the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Primaries in Massachusetts.
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While Elizabeth Warren carried Boston with over 80% of the vote, Jay Gonzalez only carried it over Charlie Baker by a couple points. Here are precinct maps of both races.
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The Prohibition Party nominated Phil Collins as their 2020 Presidential nominee. Collins unsuccessfully ran for Clark County treasurer in 2018 as a Republican. His 42.3% put him around the average of Republican candidates in the county. Here is a precinct map of that election.
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Massachusetts has reported full official precinct results. Biden did well in most of the state, especially so in the Boston suburbs. Bernie did well in western Massachusetts, the North of Boston, and City Centers. Warren did well in Some Boston suburbs and parts of western Mass.
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I think this is about as far as I will go using mapchart. Countries I haven't filled in are either still counting or don't report results by the subdivisions on the map.
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One of the most fascinating American presidential elections is 1912. Although Woodrow Wilson won in a landslide due to vote splitting, his win was not as large in MA due to it being very Republican. His win was the first time that MA voted Democratic in a Presidential Election.
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Using data from #electiontwitter and from my own calculations, here is a map of the most recent Governor Election in each state by Congressional District. Solid colors mean the election was held in 2018 while light colors mean 2015-2017.
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Remember that online politics community? Well, here’s another post from that.
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With the new Census data released, redistricting is on the horizon. Since 2000, 9 states have voted on establishing congressional redistricting commissions with varying degrees of power and independence. Commissions passed in 7 states and failed in 2. Individual maps in thread.
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Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut are three of the top states in the country for vaccine distribution. The suburbs are almost completely vaccinated while cities like Hartford lag behind significantly. Here is a map of the percent with one dose in the three states:
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Elizabeth Warren was re-elected in 2018, winning by 24%. However, she won the state by less than Hillary Clinton in 2016. This is due to Geoff Diehl's strength in rural areas, which helped him win Plymouth county and get the second best result of any statewide Republican in 2018.
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I added France and the Benelux to my map of the 2019 European Parliament Elections
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Westfield was a 48-44 Trump city in 2016. In the State Senate special election tonight, they voted for Democrat @velisforsenate 71-29. Huge swing, though not entirely unexpected given Velis is a popular state rep from Westfield.
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@BlackBernieBabe Let's talk about actual voter suppression instead of unreliable exit polls. Bernie wins caucus states like Iowa and Nevada as well as "Firehouse Primary" states like North Dakota (14 polling places in entire state). When voting is more difficult, Bernie wins. It's that simple.
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William Howard Taft won Vermont in 1912, beating Theodore Roosevelt by just 1,200 votes. It was also Woodrow Wilson's worst state. Despite this, he won Burlington and Rutland, the two largest cities in terms of votes. This is a map of that election by town.
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How each Congressional District voted in Massachusetts. MA-01: Biden +5.MA-02: Sanders +1.MA-03: Biden +5.MA-04: Biden +15.MA-05: Biden +3.MA-06: Biden +10.MA-07: Sanders +4.MA-08: Biden +12.MA-09: Biden +13.
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@Gerryinpa @Redistrict Hillary Clinton got 38% of the vote in Louisiana. Saying the Dems should have 2/6 (33%) of the seats instead of 1/6 (17%) is not a gerrymander. It is actually the fairest possible map you can get from Louisiana.
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I have some exciting news to share. 2 weeks ago, I competed in the Massachusetts History Bowl on my school team. We qualified for nationals in Virginia! In addition, I qualified for the National Political Science Bee.
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Appears that Iowa's Native American precinct (Meskwaki Settlement) did not cast any votes in the caucus.
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Here is my 2020 Republican Presidential Primary prediction in Massachusetts. MA will be one of Weld's best states (I can only see him doing better in Vermont or Utah), but it won't be enough for him to win.
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My final map is a precinct loyalty map of the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections. This really shows the direction of the state, with Suburbs expanding Democrat votes while traditional Dem areas like Western MA and Bristol County trend to the Republicans.
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Now that the California Primary has passed, here is the new De La Fuente map.
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In 1996, a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans elected Tom Finneran as Speaker of the MA House in an upset victory over Democratic Majority Leader Richard Voke. Finneran would go on to be criminally indicted for lying under oath about his role in redistricting.
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Since Vermont, Virginia, and Ohio don't have Partisan Registration and I don't consider Kentucky to be part of the Northeast, I think I will stop my map here.
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Earlier this week, Representative Stephen Lynch beat primary challenger Robbie Goldstein by a 2 to 1 margin. Goldstein is a progressive endorsed by Our Revolution and Indivisible. Lynch, on the other hand, is a moderate known for voting against Obamacare and anti-abortion views.
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I added New York to my Voter Registration Map. For me, the lack of Independents in NY explains the lack of Republican victories in the state. Compare this to New England, where there are many Republicans Governors, and many more Independents.
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Since my county ratings were a little boring, here are my town ratings for the 2020 Presidential Election in Massachusetts.
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Based on the results of the Suffolk poll this morning, here is what my model says the 2020 Primary will look like in Massachusetts.
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@markrob84 @EmersonPolling @JoeBiden @ewarren @PeteButtigieg @BernieSanders It says 571 landlines and 317 online.
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In 2006, Democrats gained the MA Governorship when Deval Patrick defeated Lt. Governor Kerry Healey. This was a different time in MA politics; Patrick won much of rural Central MA while losing some suburban areas southwest of Boston.
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Deval Patrick was re-elected governor of Massachusetts in 2010, defeating Charlie Baker. Baker would go on to be elected governor in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, while Patrick would go on to run for president in 2020.
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Earlier this month, Boston voted against a ballot question that would rename Dudley Square (outlined in yellow), a center of Black culture, to Nubian Square. Dudley Square is named after colonial governor Thomas Dudley, who oversaw the introduction of slavery to Massachusetts.
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Woodrow Wilson won the 1912 Presidential election in New Hampshire. It was the first time since 1852 that the state voted Democrat, thanks to vote splitting between Taft and Roosevelt. Wilson won Manchester and Nashua, but Taft won most of the other cities.
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Another way to look at this is with vote density, specifically net votes per square mile. This shows Taft mainly netted votes from Sante Fe, Roosevelt from Albuquerque (Bernalillo County), and Wilson from the fast-growing “Little Texas” of Eastern New Mexico.
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I was one of 4 varsity students to take the National Political Science Bee qualifying exam last month. I got the top score and qualified for the nationals in September! This is 1 of 3 exams so I'll be competing against more than 2 people.
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I have seen the county and municipal version of this, so here is a comparison between Baker and Warren at the precinct level. Baker got about 140,000, or 4.5%, more votes than Warren.
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This is the swing from the 2012 to the 2016 Presidential Elections in Massachusetts. Blue means Hillary did better and Red means Obama did better. Trump improved in Western MA and in the working class cities of Fall River and New Bedford while struggling in wealthy suburbs.
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Westfield, MA flipped both Trump->Biden and D->R in the State House. Biden eeked out a victory in this suburban Springfield city while Republican Kelly Pease won the open seat formerly held by Democrat John Velis, who was elected to the State Senate in a special election in May.
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