Leo
@LeoNelissen
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Pinned Tweet
📈 $TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
🧵 A thread on my largest position (12% of my portfolio).
📰 Based on the article I just published:
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This is what German chemical production looked like last year:
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🛢️Energy
85% of global GDP is slowing down.
50% of global GDP is in contraction.
WTI is at $91.
What happens when demand comes back?
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🧟 Zombie Companies
As of 1Q23, 46% of Russell 2000 companies were unprofitable.
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Nobody has ever said that.
Frankfurt's beautiful river landscapes have many people saying it's the Venice of Europe...
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Agriculture
We're looking at three straight years of wheat production not meeting demand.
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Europe in 2040 after it successfully cut emissions by 95%:
The EU should reduce greenhouse gases by as much as 95% by 2040, according to the bloc’s advisers
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A remarkable chart: monthly average fertilizer prices.
$MOS $CF $NTR
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S&P 500 EPS Estimates
"Profit expectations now stand as arguably the single biggest contrary indicator to the burgeoning optimism. Estimates are moving down at a rate that in recent history has always presaged a recession." - BBG
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Biden 2020: I want to get rid of oil & gas (WTI $40)
Biden 2021: Please produce more oil & gas (WTI $80)
Biden blames high gas prices on "oil-producing countries and large companies" because they are not ramping up production "quickly enough"
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🇩🇪Energy
After shutting down its nuclear reactors, Germany is now importing more electricity from:
France (70% nuclear energy)
Poland (50% coal)
Great job everyone.
Ein Mal dürft ihr raten, wer einen Tag nach dem
#Atomausstieg
feinsten Atom-Strom aus Frankreich & Kohle-Strom aus Polen importiert, weil Wind & Sonne nur zu 13% respektive 1,4% ausgelastet sind?
Wir. Deutschland. 🥰
#Energiewende
Zum Bericht ▶️
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Chip industry inventories 👀
"Inventories — a critical indicator of demand for memory chips — have more than tripled to record levels, reaching three to four months’ worth of supply."
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It gets worse. The EU is about to cut 10-30% of wheat production for climate reasons. Add higher biofuel demand and higher fertilizer prices. This is not transitory.
We've covered this for more than a year, now the FAO and World Food Programme are expecting the upcoming famine to impact 900 million people.
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Goldman Sachs expects commodities to outperform global equities in 2024.
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Cattle futures have hit a new all-time high this week.
--> high feed costs & 42% of cattle in the US are experiencing drought.
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Defense contractors' order books are booming.
$LMT $NOC $GD $RTX $BA $HII
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$TSLA Tesla is rapidly accumulating inventory as production is outpacing demand.
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De-industrialization visualized:
Plummeting gas prices aren't reviving European industrial activity 📉⚠️
🏭 Industrial gas demand in top European nations is at the lowest in at least four years
👀 This indicates that the some of the demand destruction from last year could be permanent
.
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When McDonald's is struggling, you know the bottom 50% of consumers are in deep trouble.
McDonald’s reports first drop in sales since 2020 as customers to pull back spending
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🇨🇳Commodity Dominance
I've never seen a better chart showing China's (growing) dominance in key commodities.
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🛢Energy
Almost all major oil and gas companies (incl. downstream) spent more on shareholder distributions than CapEx.
$XOM $CVX $COP $MPC $PXD $DVN
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🇨🇳 -> 🇲🇽 Reshoring
On an unsmoothed basis, US imports from Mexico are now exceeding imports from China.
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🧵 on $UNP Union Pacific's 4Q22 Earnings
- Missed both revenue & EPS estimates
EPS $2.67 ($0.11 miss), Revenue $6.2B (+8.2%, $60m miss)
- Shipments are weakening
- Expenses are outperforming revenue growth
- A mixed outlook
Disclaimer: I'm long UNP (divi portfolio).
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$PEP PepsiCo
PRICING POWER
Negative volume growth turned into 13% organic revenue growth!
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Germany's failed energy policies are nothing compared to its failure to contain immigration. Nothing.
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🌽 Fertilizers
I'm working on an article explaining the developments in the fertilizer industry, including major demand and supply developments.
-> focused on $NTR
It will likely be out tomorrow.
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Commercial Real Estate loan demand is now at Great Financial Crisis lows.
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🌽 Agriculture
Fertilizer = geopolitical weapon
1. “China's fertilizer bans created shortages.”
2. “China then figured out that it could dole out fertilizer in return for favors.”
Via Newsweek
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This is a BIG move for Volkswagen and very important for the German economy:
"Car giant’s new resilience strategy: shorter supply chains, less focus on China and more investment in the U.S."
via
@WSJ
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India gives Net-Zero by 2050 a big middle finger, as it wants to grow its economy, not destroy it.
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I believe buying deep value is more important than ever.
I'm buying:
- Energy (upstream oil & gas)
- Undervalued cyclical (i.e., rails, machinery)
- Defense companies (secular growth)
- High-yield/high-growth real estate
- Beaten down growth stocks (for balance)
📈Long-term investing
After my discussion with
@KielerFinanzen
and
@ttt_financial
about beating the market.
Going forward:
- The total return of the market will likely be subdued.
- The 60/40 portfolio is a very bad spot if inflation remains sticky.
So, where do we hide?
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🇩🇪Deindustrialization
A 3-tweet 🧵 on the most important details.
As expected, BASF is cutting 2% of its workforce.
Moreover, BASF will:
- Shut down two ammonia plants
- 1 (related) fertilizer plant
- Suspend its $3B buyback program
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Technology is dominant, but not nearly as dominant as railroads in 1900.
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🛢️ Energy - > ammonia, steel, cement, plastics.
$EPD calls it the four pillars of modern civilization.
I discussed this in my latest article:
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This is going to be fun.
AI investments just nuked Google's climate goals.
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People requesting 4-day workweeks will soon end up with 0-day workweeks.
Assuming that China‘s automotive exports growth will suddenly stop would be naive, they are just getting started. At the same time German unions seriously request four days workweek with no pay cut. Gute Nacht Deutschland
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The German government is going after farmers, canceling very important tax benefits.
I'm so done with this destructive government.
#agrardiesel
#kfzsteuer
via
@agrarheute_com
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Wake up Germany!
26% of 🇩🇪 small and medium businesses (Mittelstand) are considering to give up.
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🇩🇪 Is facing HUGE electricity shortages
If this isn't addressed, deindustrialization will accelerate.
Oh, and maybe don't shut down the remaining nuclear reactors this year...
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$CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
An oil stock I recently bought.
- >40 years' worth of reserves
- low-$40 WTI breakeven
- Close to reaching debt target
- High yield & special
#dividends
+ buybacks
- Aims to distribute almost all of its FCF
- Improving pipeline (better margins)
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Intermodal Weakness
According to the Association of American Railroads, the intermodal loads carried by US railroads in the first six months of 2023, were down 10.3% from last year and the lowest level for the first half of a year since 2013.
- Via WSJ
$UNP $NSC $CSX $CP $CNI
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People are still underestimating how terrible this news is for Germany and Europe. BASF is just one of many companies cutting exposure. The impact on the supply chain will be big and lasting.
Go woke go broke.
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The German FDP party just tweeted this. How nice of them to admit this.
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Food inflation will reach double-digits soon in Europe. If it's this high in Europe, it will be total madness in poorer African countries.
Watch: the following countries:
(h/t)
@nglinsman
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✈️ Travel Demand Is Strong
TSA numbers show that 2023 numbers exceed pre-pandemic numbers.
$DAL $UAL $LUV $AAL $RTX $TDG $HEI $BA
Delta Air Lines with double beat.
CEO: "We generated record September quarter revenue, with total revenues 13% higher YoY. Robust demand for travel on Delta is continuing into the December quarter where we expect total revenue growth of 9 to 12% YoY..."
$DAL: +2.4% PM
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$CAT - Caterpillar
Its numbers perfectly display the global growth divergence. The U.S. shines while other parts of the world (i.e., China) struggle.
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📈S&P 500
The combined weighting of $AAPL and $MSFT in the index has hit a new high.
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$HD just confirmed severe consumer weakness.
"Home Depot misses quarterly revenue expectations and lowers its forecast as consumers pull back on big purchases and take on smaller projects." - CNBC
🛒 Consumer Sentiment
Despite lower gas prices, consumer sentiment is declining again.
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Recession
This is the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in 40 years.
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European deindustrialization is a big topic that’s flying under the radar
BREAKING NEWS:
STEELMAKERS ACROSS EUROPE ARE CUTTING BACK THEIR OPERATIONS AS POWER PRICES SURGE TO RECORD LEVELS
As covered for months, energy crisis will erode production across the chain.
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Chevron $CVX Boosts Buybacks
A 🧵
The company expects to maintain annual organic CapEx of $13B to $15B through 2027, affirmed its oil and gas production guidance of more than 3% annual growth by 2027, and extended its 12% return on capital employed target to 2027 at $60 Brent.
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🇩🇪 Germany's Problems Are Getting Worse
About 15% of German companies are troubled, according to A&M.
- Via BBG
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Inflation
"The overall consumer price index climbed 0.5% in January, the most in three months and bolstered by energy and shelter costs" - BBG
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If you had to invest $10K right now, what would you buy and why?
- You cannot sell for at least 5 years.
- You can diversify (it doesn't have to be just 1 thing).
- I'm working on an article, and I'll give credit to the best answers.
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This is big
UKRAINE GOVT SAYS BANS EXPORTS OF RYE, BARLEY, BUCKWHEAT, MILLET, SUGAR, SALT, MEAT
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🛢️ Energy
US Oil Producers Now Spend Under 40% of Cash on New Drilling.
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It truly hurts to watch the de-industrialization of Germany.
Astonishing. French tyre giant Michelin has made "the difficult but unavoidable decision" to close its three manufacturing centres in Germany, with a loss of 1,500 jobs, due to high energy costs (as a result of sanctions).
There's going to be *a lot* more of this very soon.
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Usually, when bank liquidity is drained, stocks suffer.
$JPM expecting money supply in the US to decline by another $1.1 trillion as the Treasury will aggressively issue bonds.
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If your life expectancy is 150 you don’t need to care about valuations.
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Socialists have ZERO understanding of how the economy works. ZERO.
Trudeau says the heads of large grocery stores need to come up with a plan to stabilize food prices:
"Let me be very clear: If their plan doesn't provide real relief ... then we will take further action and we are not ruling anything out, including tax measures."
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Clean energy has been a horrible investment for almost two decades
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This chart is fascinating.
High-income earnings were behind the recent surge in consumer confidence.
Everyone else isn't doing so well.
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Supply Chain Re-Shoring
Monthly construction spending on manufacturing in the US hit a new all-time high.
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‼️ $MOS Update
In this article, I summarize my bull case and explain why I raised my target range to $50-$60.
Mosaic - Next Up: $50
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🇩🇪 Deindustrialization
BASF is expected to partially shut down its ammonia production in Germany, where it employs 39K of its 110K employees.
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Overpaid journalists just found out that German farmers own, on average, land worth EUR 860K.
Unfortunately, they are not smart enough to figure out that this is the bare minimum needed to produce enough crops to run a decent operation.
Fragen und Antworten zum Bauern-Protest: Ein Durchschnitts-Bauer besitzt Land im Wert von rund 860.000 Euro
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$TPL +19% after its inclusion in the S&P 400.
I still believe this stock has a lot of room to run. It's far from expensive.
📈 $TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
🧵 A thread on my largest position (12% of my portfolio).
📰 Based on the article I just published:
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$DHR Danaher Corp.
- Beats estimates
- Lowers guidance
-> Company is dealing with COVID related weakness (testing and related)
It’s one of my largest investments. I’m adding on weakness, as it’s core business remains unbeatable.
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🤡 Unreal scenes from the German Bundestag.
"And Minister, you say publicly that the situation is dramatically bad."
Robert Habeck: "Nope. The numbers are bad. The numbers!"
"Und Herr Minister, Sie sagen öffentlich, die Lage ist dramatisch schlecht."
Robert Habeck: "Nö. Die Zahlen sind schlecht. Die Zahlen!"
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This EV transition will cost millions of jobs in the global auto industry
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🇪🇺 Bankruptcies
Bankruptcies are gaining momentum, while the ECB continues to hike rates due to persistent inflation.
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🇨🇳 Supply Chains
Foreign companies are not reinvesting earnings in China anymore.
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@KielerFinanzen
Danke für diesen Tweet! Ich glaube, ich spreche für viele, wenn ich sage, wir stehen hinter dir!
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🌽 Fertilizers & Food Inflation
A quick thread on the article I published today.
-> $NTR Nutrien
Nutrien is the world's largest potash producer and the third-largest nitrogen fertilizer producer.
Link to article:
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I wish I had time to glue myself to the street or infiltrate airports. Unfortunately, I work 80-90 hours a week to pay taxes.
Activists break into London's Stansted Airport and target multiple private jets in their second anti-fossil fuels protest in fewer than 24 hours.
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With high confidence, I can say the odds of this scenario turning into reality are 0.00%
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Oil
This breakout is going to be 'fun'.
- Demand outperforming supply
- Weaker dollar
- Geopolitical tensions (getting worse)
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New Portfolio Addition
The company I bought is $LB LandBridge
- A " mini $TPL "
- Major landowner in the Permian.
- Bigger focus on surface rights.
- A major winner of the water boom in the region.
- It has the perfect land for data centers, solar, etc.
->Article coming soon
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🇪🇺 Recession
Industrial production in the EU is imploding.
Total production -6.6% year-over-year.
Capital goods declined by 9.7%!
Europäische Industrie-Produktion bricht um 6,6% ein!
Der Absturz der europäischen Industrie gegenüber dem Vorjahr ist damit bereits einer der stärksten überhaupt der letzten Jahrzehnte und wird nur von der
- globalen Finanzkrise 2008-2009
- COVID-Zeit
überboten.
Wie vor 1-2
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Democrats: those filthy, greedy energy companies destroy the middle class.
Also Dems:
Nancy Pelosi: We cannot “use [high gas prices] as an excuse” to produce more American energy
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🚢Supply Chains
Container rates from China to the US have normalized. Shipping rates from Europe to the US have not.
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