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Pinned Tweet
Going to start using this as an investing / life journal. Will be mostly talking to myself but thoughts and comments are welcome.
The goal is to be more intentional about everything I do. Hoping that having somewhere to put my thoughts helps me in that journey.
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$MOTHER
All ass, no breaks. The chart is finally in an uptrend and looks like an absolute snack right now. I have not sold even a single token, and I have purchased more tokens on the way down. This remains my highest conviction hold and I believe the best is yet to come – $1
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$MOTHER
This backside has upside. This is probably my most high conviction position and is reflected by the weighting in my portfolio (~30%). I think Iggy is going to continue to have strong presence in the space and has a lot of levers to pull to bring attention and value to
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$MOTHER
There was a holder that formerly had the second largest position in $MOTHER with over 20mm tokens. They started selling in earnest right before prices started moving up a month ago and had been unloading up until 4 hours ago. They are now out of tokens.
2%+ of total
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$tub
Frogs and dogs. Dog coins are king, but if there is anything else that might take second place it's frog coins. $tub is a toad coin (I consider this frog adjacent) with content that makes me laugh and a dev (
@Fenrir9_
) I've been thoroughly impressed with. Frogs, funnies,
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$FWOG
$BILLY + $BOME = $FWOG. I think this is a really fun and simple meme, that has parallels to $BILLY and $BOME. The frog and ticker are cute (a la $BILLY) and there is an artist associated with the project (like $BOME).
I wouldn't say I faded this one per se but it
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$WWNF (on Ethereum)
New Trump slogan on ETH. One day after I told myself I'd fade PoliFi coins going forward I have found myself invested in another PoliFi coin. Most of the reason I told myself I would fade PoliFi coins is that they didn't really seem to have a catalyst, and
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23
$WWNF - CTO Update
Only realized after the fact that $WWNF had been CTO'd. I spoke with one of the guys helping with the CTO and it helped me get more comfortable with my holdings. Most importantly:
- Dev(s) sold a lot of supply. The original dev(s) purchased 67% of supply and
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$KaBooty
Harris coin with broad based appeal (pun intended). Every time I swear off PoliFi coins, they do something to keep sucking me back in. I think this is a candidate to surpass $KAMA mostly because:
- Simple concept. A celebration of Harris's backside. You don't have to
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$MOTHER
fuck you bears. buying more anyways. I've spent the better part of the morning buying more $MOTHER as a tactical trade. I think the set up here provides incredibly skewed risk:reward with clear invalidation. In fact, I think it is one of the best trades one could take
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Link to my original post:
$MOTHER
This backside has upside. This is probably my most high conviction position and is reflected by the weighting in my portfolio (~30%). I think Iggy is going to continue to have strong presence in the space and has a lot of levers to pull to bring attention and value to
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8/12/24
Equity markets unchanged but off the highs from this morning. Nothing notable, but pretty big week on the data front. CPI on Wednesday is the most important thing to watch -- hopefully in-line numbers and a continued grind higher in risk. I continue to think last week
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8/7/24
Equities were ripping again this morning on the back of dovish comments out of the BOJ indicating that they would not raise rates further if markets are unstable. Selling off a bit now, but still well into positive territory. Seeing more analysts/pundits coming out of the
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8/1/24
Stocks getting taken out back. Jobs and ISM came in softer than expected. Softer jobs data would generally be favorable for risk but the softer ISM data is more negative. A friend who is much smarter on macro stuff than me basically explained the situation as follows:
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Portfolio Construction (Take 1)
Did a quick overview of my portfolio and identified ~15% of the book that I want to either sell or reduce sizing. A lot of these are positions I've held in the hopes of a narrative picking up (Social and AI, in particular) but am not unconvinced
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Crypto Market Thoughts Week 3 (7/8/24)
Nonfarm payrolls came a little higher than expected (bearish rate cuts), but the market focused on the downward revisions for prior periods and higher unemployment rates. Probability for rate cuts in September went up 5% post numbers (to
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$CAT
This is $BOME on steroids. A simple narrative (owned IP + potential to be the cat coin), backed by a good cabal (Floki + DWF + Binance), great looking chart, and cornered supply. Not to mention, ample liquidity for for whales to chuck size into in order to make quick
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@apatheticwhale
$SHAKA 🤙
@ShareTheShaka
A globally recognizable culture coin with the expressed goal of onboarding as many people as possible by sharing the coin with friends
On Base chain with good distribution and interactions with
@jessepollrk
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$MIGGLES
I'm not in this one, and have admittedly midcurved this whole run up. The bull case for this is the idea that Coinbase are behind the coin and are pumping it in order to drum up interest in Base.
I think the narrative is actually compelling, regardless of the merits.
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8/5/24
Big bounce from the lows on stocks after ISM data, though still down tremendously on the day. ISM data came in better than expected, maybe the economy isn't so terrible after all. USD-JPY unwind and Iran retaliation were front and center over the weekend and remain a
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$BILLY
The dog is cute. I saw this pretty late on the first day it launched (~$0.018). I top aped 50% of full size, and then re-bid most of my bullets on the retest of $0.25 (prior ATH). I did average up a bit as well. Currently ~20% of my portfolio.
I thought this was
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Interesting... this thing is a CTO now. I guess that would explain the chart to some extent. Will look into that and update with what I find.
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7/29/24
Stocks were looking pretty decent all day but ended the day essentially unchanged. Not a lot of data today, but big week with Fed rate decision Wednesday, JOLTS Tuesday, initial jobless claims Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Crypto recovering somewhat now, but
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8/2/24
Jobs/employment data all coming in much softer than expected (though seeing that there might be a temporary impact from Hurricane Beryl driving some of the miss). The market is now pricing in a 182.9% change of a rate cut in September (vs 131.6% the day before). That's an
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$WQUIL
Rotated my lagging AI play into $WQUIL on Friday. Honestly wish I could say I knew more about it but its an L1 that and is (maybe) also an AI play (vis-a-vis decentralized compute/storage). I'm frankly too smooth brain to understand the white paper, but people seem to
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7/25/24
Mixed economic data this morning, with GDP coming in much higher than expectations, PCE higher than expectations, and jobs generally in line. Equities initially took the net of data positively, but are cratering as the market opens.
Saw an article this morning about
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7/22/24
Equities higher this morning (tech leading gains). No material data, but we have GDP, Core PCE, and initial jobless claims Thursday, and PCE and U Mich Sentiment Friday.
Big news over the weekend was Biden dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Harris. I
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8/26/24
Stocks a bit weaker today. Don't think any material news out there. It'll be a pretty slow week given everyone is away for the holidays.
Crypto very solid over the weekend, though selling off a bit today. Not really worried here, think just regular way variance. The
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$BURGAM + $VUNCE Post mortem
Ultimately think I did this about 75% as well as I could have, but that extra 25% is the difference between a small win vs a home run.
Returns:
$BURGAM: 93% (fully realized)
$VUNCE: 53% (half realized -- gains locked in, I won't lose money)
The
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8/28/24
Stocks were looking absolutely terrible until just now. Still down, but no longer straight down. Again, $NVDA (reporting after the close) is the only thing people care about. If the company puts out negative guidance or a cautious outlook it would probably be a local top
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8/6/24
Decent bounce in equities now, was a little concerned earlier when the move up was a bit weaker. Nothing on the data front here. Big move in Asia overnight w/ the Nikkei up over 10%. Listened to a clip of Mohamed El-Erian (former Pimco CEO) where he said that in time he
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7/3/24
Lot of economic data (Jobs/ISM) coming in softer this morning and stocks continuing to march higher. Fed minutes at 2pm EST. Crypto majors look like an absolute bloodbath right now.
Sentiment and levels of apathy at all time highs. Still think we've digested a lot of
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7/30/24
Equities weaker this morning. JOLTS higher than expectations, and equities were weaker around the release but I'm not sure that really explains the move as rate cut expectations are still essentially unchanged (actually +4% higher in December, to 93.4%). Some large tech
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8/8/24
Really strong start to equities trading today. A relief, after the rally yesterday faded with a lackluster Treasury auction. Softer demand = higher yields / rates on treasuries, which is bad for risk. I did see some people point to the larger than normal corporate bond
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$BURGAM + $VUNCE
I purchased more of these tokens over the weekend after the Trump assassination attempt. The VP tokens took a dive after liquidity started chasing Trump shooting memes, and I thought it was a good opportunity to add to the VP trade -- Trump, in my opinion, was a
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8/13/24
Equities higher this morning on the back of a softer PPI report. There is generally some relationship between PPI and CPI, so expectations are likely for a softer than expected CPI print tomorrow. Services prices (a measure of margins received by wholesalers and
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$MOTHER
The chart is actually looking more constructive than it did yesterday after the retrace of the pump (it was looking scary there for a moment). There are some pretty big holders clipping out and it is holding the $0.03 support nicely.
If anything, the attempted moves
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7/23/24
Equities higher this morning. Nothing on the data front and earnings really the only thing in focus at the moment. 29% of the S&P 500's market value is reporting this week (Tesla and Alphabet tonight), with 16% having already reported.
Crypto kind of looked like death
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7/9/24
Equities are positive once again. Nothing really on the data front but Powell is currently speaking to the Senate. Seems like he's just saying more of the same -- the Fed is going to be data dependent, inflation is moderating, and cutting rates too soon/much could stall
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7/2/24
Stocks off slightly this morning. JOLTS came in higher than expected and Powell saying the Fed needs more confidence on data before rate cuts (though did say they are seeing disinflationary trends resuming).
Crypto majors continue to look good, though selling off this
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7/31/24
Equities are absolutely ripping this morning. ADP employment and Employment Cost Index came in softer than expected -- more data to support accommodative monetary policy. Markets also liked the AMD forecast and you're seeing a lot of tech being bid up on the back of
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7/18/24
Equities were looking pretty decent up until a few minutes ago. Jobless claims came in above expectations (and the most since early May), and we continue to see the data come in favorable for rate cuts later this year. September odds for a rate cut are now 100% (have
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Update: Fully exited $VUNCE (+44%). I'm open to the idea that a community could form around a JD Vance token if one believes that he becomes the face of pro crypto messaging for the Republican ticket. However, the r:r doesn't really feel as compelling and I will continue with my
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8/23/24
Stocks higher on the day after Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Powell confirmed that the Fed will cut rates, although made it seem as though the Fed would move judiciously and continue to be data dependent (not surprising). It seems the Fed are no longer worried about
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$MOTHER
Bybit perps listing announced. Would be shocked if there wasn’t also a spot listing. Don’t see it on socials or pinned in telegram yet.
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Again, absolute jokes for any person without mental illness.
It is safe to say that I'm a strong believer in the memecoin super cycle -- if the whole industry is just vaporware without actual users of the "technology" beyond speculation, then why not speculate in the tokens
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$MOG
Rotated a decent chunk of the portfolio (~6%) into $MOG on Friday. Was essentially fully rotating out of a Social play.
Pretty strong performance over the past week was undeniable and thought this would be one of the faster midcap names if prices continued to trend
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7/15/24
Wild weekend. Equities are higher today despite softer than expected Empire Mfg data (although if you peel back the onion a bit, it wasn't as bad). Of course, we had the attempted assassination attempt on Trump on Saturday, which I think all but solidifies his victory in
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6/28/24
Market a bit heavier this morning but continue to think the bottom is in. Economic data this morning (PCE and personal spending) was in-line to better and supportive of rate cuts (though personal income was a touch higher than estimates). Equities were weaker on the back
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I did a pie chart of the portfolio and the results are sort of hilarious:
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8/22/24
Stocks pretty week today. Seems like people are taking chips off the table ahead of Powell's speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow. Rates sold off (yields higher on the day), and the September probabilities for rate cuts dropped to 125% from 136% yesterday.
Crypto a bit
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7/11/24
CPI came in cooler than expected and the market is now pricing in a 93.5% of a September cut (+20% d/d), and an 85.6% of a cut in December (+5.7% d/d). Would have expected markets up, but stocks down materially. Though if you look under the hood, 75% of the index is up,
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8/21/24
Equities grinding higher after whipsawing a bit after the payrolls revision. The revision came in at -818k, around the midpoint of estimates (600k-1mm), though still a very large headline number. Essentially no jobs were created in the past 12 months. It now looks like
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Anyway, I think this was a good first attempt at looking at my holdings. But I think I probably need to scrutinize further the positions that weren't obvious low hanging fruit.
I don't think I've really thought enough about portfolio concentration for individual tokens here, and
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7/24/24
Equities getting absolutely taken out back at the moment. Some weaker housing data this morning, but mostly just disappointing earnings (e.g. Alphabet and Tesla) are driving indexes lower.
Really like how crypto majors are shaking off this move right now. Maybe good ETH
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@itsmysidehustle
Love that! How exacting are you with the process? Or are just doing it to strictly get in that mindset?
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7/11/24
Addendum on emotions: I was actually borderline euphoric post CPI, and maybe that accounts for some of my sour mood at the moment.
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@contrarycap5
Ah, I see that it is now suspended. Was the original account banned as well? I just assumed it was the transition to the CTO. Would actually be funnier if they just show photos of her from the public domain where she is turned around. Might be something there.
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8/27/24
Stocks ended up slightly higher on the day. A measure of consumer confidence came in higher than expected, but not a really notable data point in my opinion. $NVIDIA earnings are Wednesday, GDP and core PCE on Thursday, and initial jobless claims on Friday. $NIVIDA
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@napoleonkapital
It would make sense, however, for $BILLY specifically, holder count is quite good and growth metrics as I mentioned are also solid. Distribution of holders is also very good, similar to the larger and older $POPCAT. I also think $BILLY has very good vibes in general and could
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Links I found helpful:
(website, has all the docs -- admittedly I have no idea what any of the technical stuff means)
(emissions schedule)
(discord server)
@Altcoinist_com
@Quilibrium_xyz
As others have pointed out, MC is incorrect: ~201M
$QUIL is a layer 1, wQUIL is wrapped QUIL on Ethereum where node runners can bridge if they choose. The supply on Ethereum only reflects those that have minted/bridged to Ethereum. Attached est. emissions curve over 10 yrs.
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7/19/24
Equities down today, not a lot of material economic data. I think the major thing is that there are a lot of articles saying Biden will step down -- markets hate uncertainty, and although I doubt the Democrats would run anyone that would have better odds of beating Trump
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8/9/24
Stocks looking pretty solid here coming into the final hours of trading. Stocks now fully retraced the move from Monday. Nothing notable on the data front, but next week we have PPI, CPI, and UMich sentiment on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday respectively.
Crypto really
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7/12/24
Equity indices are higher despite a poor U. Mich. consumer sentiment reading, and higher than expected Producer price data (PPI). Greatest market in the world, innit?
Crypto seems to be following equities higher. Going to start putting thoughts for individual names
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7/10/24
Equities grinding higher again. Powell still talking to the senate but otherwise don't think anything notable happening in the markets.
Crypto markets rallied overnight but look to be retracing most of the move now. Really liked the $MOG move, but a lot of stuff looking
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Ok, Burgum is reportedly out, chances <1% on Polymarket. Vance at 79%. Send it.
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@Casa_Intern
Agree with that, longer time frames eliminate the speed advantage many traders have. I think one of the big sins I committed here was sizing too aggressively (particularly given I was touching grass for the most the weekend). The large relative size and the inability to focus
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@lyraly77
Much appreciated! I agree that the most interesting parts of the PoliFi trade are behind us (for all of the reasons that you’ve articulated). Trump will win the election in November and Biden is not a compelling candidate from which to play a narrative — there is nothing
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I'm helping test
@friendtech
, the marketplace for your friends on Base 🐰
Get the app and search for my Twitter username to be an early holder of my shares 🤗
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$VUNCE
Same trade setup as $BURGUM. Polymarket pricing Burgum at 40% while Vance is 16%. Sized relative to odds on $VUNCE (vs $BURGUM). Since he's the dog here I'd probably look to de-risk heavily into the debate tonight.
It's doing a lot of volume and appears to be the only
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7/4/24
TradFi markets closed for the holidays, happy fourth for those that celebrate! Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow are the big piece of economic data this week.
I thought crypto majors looked bad yesterday and somehow they look even worse now. Mid-40k BTC is becoming a pervasive
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$VUNCE moving today. JD Vance is basically neck and neck with Doug Burgum on Polymarket at ~30% each. Need to look into what happened there but still convinced that a VP coin will have a moment (despite PoliFi feeling tired at the moment) and am positioned accordingly.
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Big dip on $BILLY overnight, but bounced off that 4H "support" ~$0.09. Next place people seem to care is ~$0.06, so we either continue up here or go much lower. My lean is higher as the holder count has only gotten larger on this dip, but I'm a bull at heart so take that opinion
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7/16/24
Housing starts this morning came in pretty good, but markets seem to be focusing on the Biden administration potentially imposing stricter trade restrictions on chip technology sales to China. Semis/tech getting absolutely smoked this morning.
Crypto seems to be
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7/1/24
Nice pump over the weekend. Equities are better on the day, after selling off after ISM mfg numbers at 10am EST. Crypto majors look good, $BTC looks amazing. Still leaning constructive w/ equities grinding higher and majors looking the way they are.
Rotated some of the
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Going to iterate this process as I go, and not let perfect be the enemy of good.
High level, going to focus on investing (both my tradfi job and crypto) to codify my process for buying/selling.
In terms of personal, I want to focus on health. Once I nail down that I'll expand
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7/26/24
Equities are putting in a healthy bounce after PCE data came in-line with street estimates. U Mich Sentiment is still trending down, with inflation expectations coming in slightly higher than estimates. But perversely (other than inflation expectations), weaker sentiment
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