Joe Value 🕊️
@JoeValue
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I run an IFA firm with my dad, and a special sits investment fund. Nothing here is advice! Interview:
England, United Kingdom
Joined December 2020
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Investment related books I’ve read over the last 18 months, with ratings
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$ATTO thesis summary now live on our substack!
Upside between 100% and 250%
Expected sale of business withing 6 to 12 months
Business turnaround clearly working
Activist investor pushing things forward
Very undervalued vs peers on EV/EBITDA basis
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@3YearLetterman
@elonmusk
The bait might have been swallowed 😂
I should take a look at the account before commenting
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@8750Capital
IR email address is here:
IR
@PeabodyEnergy
.com
$BTU shareholders against empire building!
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Why don’t people write about investments they passed on, and justifications for the pass?
It would prob help with others research, instead of just hearing from bulls.
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$HUR.L new special sits writeup on my Substack.
90% of your initial cash back before Q2 and up to an 85% return!
Acquisition of UK oil producer.
H/T
@sjoerds78
for the idea!
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$ACIC what a fat pitch this was! Thanks
@JonCukierwar
🫡
American Coastal Insurance Corporation $ACIC $UIHC is a remarkably high-quality specialty P&C insurer unfamiliar to most due to a recent corporate restructuring
FY24+ P/E of 2-3x and deep discount to future BV and TBV
New memo is available here:
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$QLTU.TA 50% return in 1 month and a long way to go!
3x from here IMO! DYODD
Write-up in the blog (see bio)
Disclosure: my largest position.
Picks and shovels AI play.
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Sometimes spending a lot upfront is worth it long run.
8 years of regular use - now down to £50pa.
Handmade in England.
It’s nice to look after something high quality.
Crockett & Jones
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@MadThunderdome
@JimmyDaGreek76
@wabuffo
@specialsit1
@OtterMarket
@BillBrewsterTBB
@stockspinoffss
@rsosa8
@ValueStockGeek
@AltaFoxCapital
@bigbluebugcap
@twebs
@Plum_Capital
@ThomasBraziel
🏆
Thank you for sharing so generously! So many valuable insights.
🙌
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These twitter accounts really stood out for me this year...
Thanks for being here and making
#fintwit
such a valuable place!
Keep up the great work! 😇
In no particular order
@AndrewRangeley
@puppyeh1
@BrownMarubozu
@Mc_Partnerships
@bkaellner
@alluvialcapital
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$GTX keeps printing cash and buying back shares.
Share count now down to 246m from 256m (25 July).
Bought 10m shares from Baupost with lockup type agreement for next 6 months on their remaining 2% stake.
Supply demand balance about to swing IMO
New SC 13D/A from BAUPOST GROUP LLC concerning $GTX. See details at
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New investment idea just published!!
See bio for link to blog.
Nothing here is investment advice.
Use as a primer to do your own work.
😊🙏👍
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$ATTO material typo on existing disclosure.
Seems they missed the ‘f’ from cash flow, to creat a misleading ‘cash low’.
And did it twice!
Can’t make this shit up!
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Value investors paradise! 😊 Stunning islands, great people and food and all super cheap
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@UncommonYield
Life is a liability!
Got to spend money to live in our modern society.
Think of it as maintenance cap ex.
Keep it low relative to income and all that’s left to do is enjoy it and be grateful for it!
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Anyone got any tips for drafting investment write-ups to gain Value Investor Club (VIC) membership?
Structure?
What to incl / excl ?
Level of detail?
Etc…
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@frankinvesting
Nick Sleep - his letters and insights were great. He really understood his investments like few others. And seeing his style change was amazing too
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@mr_skilling
@finding_value_
Wow! Why would he take on such an awful commercial. I thought he was a smart guy…
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$BTU I like to think sending emails to IR does help a bit..
Great result for us shareholders either way!
H/T
@8750Capital
@contrarian8888
@8750Capital
IR email address is here:
IR
@PeabodyEnergy
.com
$BTU shareholders against empire building!
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This book is life changing for me!
If you’re wanting to improve communication skills you’ll 100% find some useful tips in here.
I’m seeing people in colour for the first time!
I didn’t think my communication skills were that bad, but amazing how much they can be improved!
🤯
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$GTX is finally moving. Took a while for people to notice. Maybe it was all the insider buys that got attention. Still so much more upside IMO. Have been buying more. A conviction position... 50% of my portfolio now!
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NEW IDEA!!
PE 6.5
Growth 30% +
Net cash clean b/sheet
Market cap USD90m
Good aligned management
Market leaders
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@PauloMacro
So just for my simple mind…
Are you saying there’s a risk that failed margin calls will result in commodities (currently being held as collateral) getting sold en mass? Flooding the market at a time when less demand for commodities is occurring? And no one talking about this
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@puppyeh1
Congrats on the result!!
You’ve got one very grateful follower here!
That risk reward setup was too much. Only thing required was patience.
Mooar like this please 🥂🤣
$hdg.na
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Surprise new room for her birthday!
She said “Mummy daddy you made a very clever room!” 😂
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$GTX Garrett Motion - anyone know what the big move today was about?
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$ATTO so this was my worst investment by far!
Damn this was a very painful lesson.
😢
Managed to recoup some in the recent rally and then over the last few days.
I’m fully out. Went a tiny position short pre-market. But no difference really 🫤
Some lessons are expensive!
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@CAGR_Party
What was the writeup on?
The rumour is 90% of rejected VIC writeups go on to produce 300% ave returns
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$ATTO is a confirmed special situation, having hired Goldman to explore option to sell the business:
If you want to get up to speed on the story:
Here’s hoping we get $50 to $80 for it, in next 6 months!
$ATTO thesis summary now live on our substack!
Upside between 100% and 250%
Expected sale of business withing 6 to 12 months
Business turnaround clearly working
Activist investor pushing things forward
Very undervalued vs peers on EV/EBITDA basis
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Activist investors 👀
What a BS lowball offer for $SIRE !
At least off the same price as they paid for their 60% stake earlier this year. I think that was about $27.
Anything above $27 is alright, but there should really be a premium on top!
30 day ave is BS
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Revelations of a 2yo:
Pippy dog got tail, got nose, got bottom…
‘Gasp’… PIPPY NAKED! Hahaha pippy naked, pippy naked, got no clothes. Naked 😂
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I’ve thoroughly pitched $QLTU recently (disclosure: my largest position)
Got small pushbacks on a couple of issues which are explainable and don’t justify such a big discount vs peers. (<5x EBIT/EV versus 40pe)
Only seen quiet buying on higher volumes. A 3x from here IMO:
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@AIMhonesty
Is it legal to call fraud multiple times publicly without any evidence. Where’s the line on market manipulation?
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$QLTU is a picks and shovels play on AI.
And it’s way too cheap!
5x EBIT/EV (TTM)
3.5x EBIT/EV (based on $48m 2024 revenue)
US listed competitors are at 40 P/E
Additionally, the company’s advanced package testing systems are also integrated with the development of artificial intelligence chips (AI) “
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Buffett trolling Munger… classic:
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$PSH I’m going to the annual meeting on 8th Feb in London.
Got a few others going too, so let me know if you want to join us.
Will prob meet in a pub nearby before.
Signup link:
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New substack and first write-up!
Many more to follow.
Sharing ideas in return for feedback and building new contacts.
Any help, support, encouragement greatly appreciated.
Determined to make investing my full time career!
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The market is volatile. No one knows what’s next. Lots of doom-ers fear mongering. Facts help you stay rational ✅
20 observations:
1. Simple facts show there are still some very over valued business. 2. There is lots of disruption to supply chain. 3.There is an energy crisis.
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“…Earnings are the return on capital invested in a business, while depreciation is a return of the capital invested in the business.” Klarman
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$GTX Garrett Motion
Oaktree increased their holdings by 30%!
If anyone knows that this Gtx is too cheap it’s these guys 😂
Back up to 20% ownership after selling the preferred shares back to the business.
🥳
#ThinkSabio
#SEC
$SPX $SPY $XBI $QQQ $IWM
#SEC
-Update $GTX: $9.75
Garrett Motion Inc
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
YTD: 4%
1 Yr: 21%
SEC reported Today (29APR2024) that OAKTREE CAPITAL GROUP LLC INCREASED $GTX shares.
Before: 33,788,480 Shares.
Now: 44,082,816 Shares.
Newly
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@marketplunger1
Think you’re missing the key ingredient that goes with a great company with moat… time
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@bkaellner
Wow! That had everything in there! Low cost provider / competitive advantage, asset light, proven growth with long runway, profitable, board members aligned and great capital allocators, out of favour sector, earnings hidden by lower interest rates…
Wen lambo?
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@bkaellner
Although to be fair to him… lambos did look like this when he wrote it, so prob why he didn’t finish with wen lambo
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@ValueStockGeek
Surely that data is skewed by all those that make a full repayment each month.
I do that to get the payment insurance benefit as well as the points / cash back…
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@lhamtil
Bullish $GTX $GTXAP
ICE has got a lot longer run than consensus.
Potential sale of the biz and cap structure simplification likely in 2023.
Biz is raking in FCF and paying divs while we wait.
Moat stronger than ever!
Multiple should keep expanding as this gets priced in.
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Good bye $GTXMQ I’ve learned so much from you... and welcome back $GTX I’m excited for what’s next! Thanks again to the guys on the EC. And excited to hear
@johnpetry
is now a director! Crazy that one could still pick up ordinary at $5 something today! I couldn’t resist 😆
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Anyone else going to the Fundsmith AGM?
I’ll be in Westminster from around 3pm, if anyone wants to chat investing over a pint / coffee.
Think there will be a few of us, but not sure how many yet.
DMs open.
🍻
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@Xinyan_Huang
@FabioBoeckli
@BatteryFires
The fire took place in Perugia. The bus was powered by methane- NOT batteries.
“Fear in Perugia on Saturday afternoon, Easter Eve. It had just passed 3 pm when… a bus powered by methane caught fire.”
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Researching a stock and it’s up 20% in 4 days since I found it…
So frustrating…
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Can you really ask for much more in an equity?
And clearly others agree, steady buying on strong volumes following the FY23 conference call.
This thing is going to keep running!
🥳
$QLTU
@BichonRedux
$QLTU - market leading chip testing company, at c. 3x EBIT/EV, net cash, growing, high margins, well run with longstanding Managment with skin in the game. Divs and buybacks
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Slowly realising spending money on experiences / holidays is much more fulfilling that buying stuff you don’t need…
My 2yo is going to be pretty well travelled by the end of the year!
Feeling blessed 😊
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@bkaellner
The great mental models by Shane Parrish.
Great introduction to tonnes of mental models
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@ValKatayev
This is what my mum did for me in the back of her diary. Think I got 5% a week!
I can tell you it worked a treat. I’ll be doing the same for my daughter.
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The most joy I’ve found in my adult life is having a kid. By far!
Always knew I’d have a kid one day, but nothing prepared me for how much joy and love I have for her. Watching her grow and develop is such a gift.
Sure it’s not easy a lot of the time… but infinitely worth it!
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$ATTO Looks like we have a new shareholder. Has over 500k shares so far. Offer extended another week.
MCI Capital, LC Waives Minimum Condition of Cash Tender Offer for Ordinary Shares of Atento S.A.; Extends Expiration Date $ATTO
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$ATTO next topic of discussion, after a promising Q3 conference call…
MCI Capital, LC Announces Commencement of Cash Tender Offer for Ordinary Shares of Atento S.A. $ATTO
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As birthday tradition dictates…
Pizza stolen from the table!
8 today! 🥳🎂🎁
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@puppyeh1
I agree.
The only thing I can think of is that we have a lag between cases and hospitalisations.
Even if Omicron is less potent, it still may cause significant hospital pressures given the sheer number of infections.
Govs heavily insentivised to act with caution.
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The kindness on Twitter is awesome!
Continuing to meet so many great people I’d otherwise have no chance of speaking with.
😊🙏
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$NTP Probability analysis just published!
What is the market implied probability of IsZo winning?
Given current share price and NAV estimates.
And does that seem fair to you?
cc:
@Swapnil00456809
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$ACIC this makes much more sense of the price action than theories about Burry - might be true too.
But if market moves big after a report and you can’t figure out why, it’s bc you’ve missed something, not bc market is crazy.
Overreactive maybe but directionally correct
@JoeValue
If I had to guess, from a fundamental perspective folks are concerned about Q4 GWP and Citizen's takeout announcement, the two of which are related. Q4 GWP came in a ways below Q1 and Q2 (Q3 seasonally weakest) likely due to ACIC losing some share to Citizen's. If a private
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🤔 $3.1T market cap?
People are still mighty greedy it seems.
Love the round stock price numbers people aim for.
I just told my wife that each $TSLA stock will be worth $1000 in 2-3 years. Am I right?
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John Milhaljevic “Illiquidity in exchange for higher expected returns should be a viable alternative for a portion of the equity portfolio. After all, trading illiquidity I neither business specific nor industry risk, so the intrinsic quality…is rarely diminished by illiquidity”
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Wow, GT4 is so impressive on the road. The sharpest fastest thing I’ve been in. In another league vs a Carrera. Never knew GT products were so damn good!
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@HighyieldHarry
Funny the amount of people that don’t get the joke. I’m normally the one to miss a joke 😂
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@BrownMarubozu
@ActuallyFinance
Totally agree. He loves ‘workouts’ in this kind of environment:
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@CitronResearch
Issue is that the ‘researchers’ don’t have any skin in the game, and the research is given away for free.
It’s not research it’s a tool to generate fees from increased buying and selling of shares.
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@TikTokInvestors
His body language actually tells you everything…
He’s super closed off and nervous when spouting bs.
Hugging himself and clutching at neck…
Then we he talks about marketing and “selling 💩” he opens up and you can see this is what he’s really all about. Very passionate
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$gtxmq I’ve updated the calcs and this is what I get. Let me know if you disagree. Previous vs updated based on info from hearing on 03/05/21. None of these figures from hearing have been confirmed in writing. *Not investment advice*
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My key takeaways from:
Howard Marks' - Mastering The Market Cycle.
1. Cycles oscillate about the mean of a trend. They rarely spend much time at the mean of the trend.
Human behaviour is responsible for the extreme pendulum swings of the market. Driven by swings of optimism
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Special thanks to
@BrownMarubozu
for the initial idea and continuing the crusade to educate people on this name.
And shout out to
@Plum_Capital
who has an excellent and more detailed writeup on the subject.
Our writeup is more of a quick summary, to spread the word
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@ValueStockGeek
No one complains when everyone’s making money…
Easier to overlook the obvious, inconvenient truths
Then “help help these people are bad. I thought they were hero’s but they’re villains!”
Human nature is reliably consistent throughout history
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